RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN032X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN032X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 039 1 Aubure (F), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCAB - 039 2 France Norway spruce 1080 5334-800 1904 1994 - 039 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 20 039020 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1972 1972 / 1974 1974 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 0.878 0.083 -0.387 2.822 0.084 0.353 2 039002 1908 1994 87 0.845 0.083 -0.601 3.973 0.098 0.235 3 039003 1908 1994 87 0.855 0.091 -0.717 4.859 0.084 0.460 4 039004 1908 1994 87 0.887 0.080 -0.826 3.797 0.084 0.281 5 039005 1905 1994 90 0.763 0.096 -0.603 3.898 0.126 0.240 6 039006 1905 1994 90 0.750 0.091 0.028 3.290 0.129 0.174 7 039007 1905 1994 90 0.791 0.097 -0.707 4.543 0.125 0.191 8 039008 1905 1994 90 0.808 0.103 -0.488 3.941 0.129 0.230 9 039009 1907 1994 88 0.852 0.103 -0.596 3.061 0.126 0.216 10 039010 1907 1994 88 0.827 0.096 0.476 2.787 0.096 0.427 11 039011 1907 1994 88 0.876 0.099 -0.764 3.649 0.113 0.332 12 039012 1907 1994 88 0.906 0.093 -0.685 3.500 0.109 0.166 13 039013 1905 1994 90 0.911 0.119 -0.786 3.109 0.127 0.304 14 039014 1905 1994 90 0.884 0.100 -0.664 3.246 0.116 0.163 15 039015 1905 1994 90 0.940 0.120 -1.006 3.975 0.114 0.381 16 039016 1905 1994 90 0.905 0.111 -0.828 3.789 0.132 0.150 17 039017 1904 1994 91 0.793 0.107 -0.119 2.553 0.143 0.188 18 039018 1904 1994 91 0.760 0.082 -0.164 3.093 0.113 0.205 19 039019 1904 1994 91 0.807 0.121 -0.377 2.828 0.141 0.348 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 0.792 0.130 -0.298 2.941 0.155 0.347 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1904 TO 1994 91 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 0.842 0.100 -0.506 3.483 0.117 0.270 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.056 0.014 0.352 0.614 0.020 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 0.849 0.098 -0.602 3.395 0.121 0.238 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.093 0.018 0.403 0.918 0.025 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.750 0.080 -1.006 2.553 0.084 0.150 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 0.793 0.091 -0.740 3.001 0.104 0.190 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 0.886 0.109 -0.337 3.919 0.129 0.348 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 0.940 0.130 0.476 4.859 0.155 0.460 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.750 0.088 0.006 -1.067 5.521 0.352 0.946 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.352 SERIES 039008 AND 039010 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.946 SERIES 039013 AND 039015 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.837 0.849 0.844 0.751 0.640 0.508 0.685 SDEV 0.040 0.092 0.093 0.126 0.164 0.168 0.112 SERR 0.016 0.007 0.007 0.009 0.012 0.012 0.008 EPS 0.989 0.991 0.991 0.984 0.973 0.954 0.978 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.841 0.088 -0.647 3.517 0.102 0.286 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.098 0.020 0.062 7 84 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.19 1.02 1.04 1.23 1.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.04 0.72 0.86 0.90 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 90. 2. 87. 88. 90. 91. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.283 0.310 0.283 0.190 0.225 0.170 0.110 0.075 0.179 0.125 PACF 0.283 0.250 0.170 0.033 0.089 0.031 -0.031 -0.047 0.129 0.044 95% C.L. 0.210 0.226 0.244 0.258 0.264 0.272 0.277 0.279 0.280 0.285 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.175 0.163 0.220 0.187 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 039001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00089214 0.83913660 2 039002 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00136819 0.78485698 3 039003 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00222042 0.75735897 4 039004 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00141521 0.82474208 5 039005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00128164 0.70501870 6 039006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00131061 0.68992257 7 039007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00124978 0.73457927 8 039008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023130 0.79747564 9 039009 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00150937 0.78521943 10 039010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00155155 0.75822884 11 039011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00183588 0.79455328 12 039012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00148806 0.83980405 13 039013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00208396 0.81595755 14 039014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00154422 0.81373781 15 039015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00216060 0.84169286 16 039016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00137021 0.84232211 17 039017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00139975 0.72846889 18 039018 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00130530 0.69962639 19 039019 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00238844 0.69694507 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 039020 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00249221 0.67669618 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.092 -0.262 2.774 0.083 0.301 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.090 -0.707 3.614 0.097 0.066 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.086 -1.053 5.414 0.083 0.116 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.082 -0.737 3.687 0.083 0.114 5 039005 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.119 -0.563 3.529 0.124 0.126 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.113 0.129 3.101 0.127 0.049 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.117 -0.589 4.227 0.124 0.080 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.128 -0.446 3.841 0.128 0.225 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.113 -0.604 2.911 0.124 0.088 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.105 0.097 1.992 0.095 0.297 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.101 -0.287 3.368 0.111 0.131 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.095 -0.642 3.359 0.108 0.003 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.120 -0.449 3.001 0.125 0.133 14 039014 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.104 -0.638 3.320 0.115 -0.006 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.116 -0.557 3.973 0.113 0.215 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.118 -0.612 3.543 0.130 0.056 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.128 0.116 2.632 0.142 0.080 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.099 -0.017 2.994 0.112 0.052 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.132 -0.091 2.910 0.139 0.101 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.143 -0.154 3.151 0.151 0.122 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.110 -0.403 3.367 0.116 0.117 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.016 0.329 0.701 0.020 0.084 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.113 -0.503 3.339 0.119 0.107 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.022 0.502 0.698 0.025 0.071 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.082 -1.053 1.992 0.083 -0.006 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.097 -0.625 2.953 0.103 0.061 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.119 -0.123 3.650 0.127 0.132 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.143 0.129 5.414 0.151 0.301 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 039001 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 039002 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 039003 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 039004 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 039005 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 039006 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 039007 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 039008 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 039009 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 039010 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 039011 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 039012 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 039013 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 039014 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 039015 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 039016 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 039017 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 039018 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 039019 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 039020 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.081 -0.592 3.152 0.084 0.100 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.089 -0.748 3.706 0.097 0.037 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.081 -1.359 6.600 0.083 -0.004 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.075 -1.093 4.238 0.083 -0.045 5 039005 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.113 -0.620 3.641 0.124 0.018 6 039006 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.105 -0.020 2.864 0.127 -0.109 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.112 -0.755 4.342 0.124 -0.009 8 039008 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.114 -0.862 4.234 0.127 0.015 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.106 -0.779 3.227 0.124 -0.046 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.089 -0.145 2.639 0.095 0.033 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.091 -0.685 3.341 0.111 -0.078 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.090 -0.875 3.637 0.108 -0.117 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.115 -0.640 3.091 0.125 0.072 14 039014 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.103 -0.634 3.326 0.115 -0.017 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.108 -0.956 4.305 0.113 0.110 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.115 -0.767 3.635 0.130 0.017 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.121 -0.082 2.481 0.142 -0.024 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.096 0.034 3.070 0.112 0.003 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.127 -0.255 2.744 0.139 0.025 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 0.999 0.133 -0.359 3.039 0.151 -0.010 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.103 -0.610 3.566 0.116 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.016 0.370 0.907 0.020 0.060 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.105 -0.662 3.334 0.119 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.025 0.514 0.916 0.025 0.063 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.999 0.075 -1.359 2.481 0.083 -0.117 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.090 -0.821 3.054 0.103 -0.034 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.115 -0.307 3.970 0.127 0.029 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.133 0.034 6.600 0.151 0.110 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.742 0.078 0.006 -0.084 2.679 0.549 0.930 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.549 SERIES 039003 AND 039017 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.930 SERIES 039013 AND 039015 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.838 0.858 0.842 0.752 0.649 0.540 0.664 SDEV 0.042 0.082 0.084 0.124 0.154 0.147 0.118 SERR 0.017 0.006 0.006 0.009 0.011 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.989 0.992 0.991 0.984 0.974 0.959 0.975 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 1.002 0.091 -0.775 3.672 0.104 -0.015 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.142 -0.028 0.080 25 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.79 1.00 1.05 1.83 5.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.83 0.87 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.014 0.071 0.052 -0.082 -0.048 -0.084 -0.151 -0.204 0.030 -0.010 PACF -0.014 0.071 0.054 -0.086 -0.059 -0.078 -0.140 -0.210 0.035 0.019 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.211 0.211 0.213 0.213 0.215 0.219 0.227 0.228 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.023 0.056 0.037 -0.098 -0.020 -0.067 -0.150 -0.158 0.045 -0.001 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.023 2 -0.022 0.056 3 -0.024 0.057 0.040 4 -0.020 0.062 0.037 -0.099 5 -0.023 0.063 0.039 -0.100 -0.029 6 -0.025 0.057 0.041 -0.096 -0.030 -0.058 7 -0.033 0.053 0.027 -0.090 -0.022 -0.062 -0.145 8 -0.058 0.042 0.024 -0.106 -0.017 -0.053 -0.151 -0.174 9 -0.050 0.050 0.026 -0.105 -0.012 -0.054 -0.153 -0.171 0.050 10 -0.050 0.053 0.029 -0.104 -0.011 -0.052 -0.153 -0.172 0.051 0.018 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 516.03 517.98 519.69 521.55 522.65 524.57 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 526.26 526.32 525.53 527.30 529.27 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 039001 0 0.010 2 039002 0 0.001 3 039003 0 0.000 4 039004 0 0.002 5 039005 0 0.000 6 039006 0 0.012 7 039007 0 0.000 8 039008 0 0.000 9 039009 0 0.002 10 039010 0 0.001 11 039011 0 0.006 12 039012 0 0.014 13 039013 0 0.005 14 039014 0 0.000 15 039015 0 0.012 16 039016 0 0.000 17 039017 0 0.001 18 039018 0 0.000 19 039019 0 0.001 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 039020 0 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.005 MEDIAN 0 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.005 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.000 UPPER HINGE 0 0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.014 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.081 -0.592 3.152 0.083 0.100 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.089 -0.748 3.706 0.097 0.037 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.081 -1.360 6.600 0.083 -0.004 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.075 -1.093 4.238 0.083 -0.045 5 039005 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.113 -0.620 3.641 0.124 0.018 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.105 -0.020 2.864 0.127 -0.109 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.112 -0.755 4.342 0.124 -0.009 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.114 -0.862 4.234 0.127 0.015 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.106 -0.779 3.227 0.124 -0.046 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.089 -0.145 2.639 0.094 0.033 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.091 -0.685 3.341 0.111 -0.078 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.090 -0.875 3.637 0.108 -0.117 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.115 -0.640 3.091 0.125 0.072 14 039014 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.103 -0.634 3.326 0.115 -0.017 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.108 -0.956 4.305 0.113 0.110 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.115 -0.767 3.635 0.130 0.017 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.121 -0.082 2.481 0.142 -0.024 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.096 0.034 3.070 0.112 0.003 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.127 -0.255 2.744 0.139 0.025 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.133 -0.359 3.039 0.151 -0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.103 -0.610 3.566 0.116 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.016 0.370 0.907 0.020 0.060 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.105 -0.662 3.334 0.119 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.025 0.514 0.916 0.025 0.063 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.075 -1.360 2.481 0.083 -0.117 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.090 -0.821 3.054 0.103 -0.034 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.115 -0.307 3.970 0.127 0.029 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.133 0.034 6.600 0.151 0.110 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.742 0.078 0.006 -0.084 2.679 0.549 0.930 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.549 SERIES 039003 AND 039017 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.930 SERIES 039013 AND 039015 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.838 0.858 0.842 0.752 0.649 0.540 0.664 SDEV 0.042 0.082 0.084 0.124 0.154 0.147 0.118 SERR 0.017 0.006 0.006 0.009 0.011 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.989 0.992 0.991 0.984 0.974 0.959 0.975 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 1.002 0.091 -0.775 3.672 0.104 -0.015 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.140 -0.028 0.080 25 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.76 1.00 1.05 1.80 5.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.82 0.87 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.014 0.071 0.052 -0.082 -0.048 -0.084 -0.151 -0.204 0.030 -0.010 PACF -0.014 0.071 0.054 -0.086 -0.059 -0.077 -0.140 -0.210 0.035 0.019 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.211 0.211 0.213 0.213 0.215 0.219 0.227 0.228 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 1.002 0.091 -0.775 3.672 0.104 -0.015 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.014 0.071 0.052 -0.082 -0.048 -0.084 -0.151 -0.204 0.030 -0.010 PACF -0.014 0.071 0.054 -0.086 -0.059 -0.077 -0.140 -0.210 0.035 0.019 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.211 0.211 0.213 0.213 0.215 0.219 0.227 0.228 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.12 MINUTES