RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN033E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN033E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 040 1 Vitrimont (F), EU-Pr. WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 040 2 France Norway spruce 230 5359-705 1931 1994 - 040 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 040011 1934 1994 61 3.160 1.628 0.314 2.256 0.287 0.786 2 040013 1934 1994 61 2.726 1.166 0.112 2.385 0.340 0.569 3 040015 1934 1994 61 2.596 1.390 0.282 2.135 0.253 0.814 4 040017 1934 1994 61 2.562 1.531 0.423 2.029 0.269 0.816 5 040021 1937 1994 58 2.627 1.076 -0.043 2.213 0.213 0.786 6 040023 1937 1994 58 2.336 1.082 0.558 2.769 0.225 0.805 7 040025 1937 1994 58 2.393 0.926 0.375 2.163 0.249 0.646 8 040027 1937 1994 58 2.671 1.172 -0.016 2.083 0.242 0.783 9 040031 1934 1994 61 2.600 1.060 1.061 4.553 0.277 0.600 10 040033 1934 1994 61 2.660 0.972 -0.297 2.471 0.297 0.553 11 040035 1934 1994 61 2.264 0.879 0.365 2.565 0.297 0.616 12 040037 1935 1994 60 2.065 0.877 0.561 2.757 0.280 0.705 13 040041 1935 1994 60 2.388 1.080 1.006 3.461 0.321 0.657 14 040043 1935 1994 60 2.373 1.172 0.909 3.553 0.299 0.702 15 040045 1935 1994 60 2.124 1.034 1.205 5.537 0.320 0.579 16 040047 1935 1994 60 1.863 0.969 0.875 3.422 0.341 0.575 17 040051 1931 1994 64 2.900 1.395 0.295 2.509 0.269 0.672 18 040053 1933 1994 62 2.172 1.198 -0.010 1.973 0.257 0.791 19 040055 1933 1994 62 2.600 1.386 0.308 2.133 0.343 0.592 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 040057 1931 1994 64 1.968 1.121 0.097 1.966 0.207 0.855 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1931 TO 1994 64 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 2.452 1.156 0.419 2.747 0.279 0.695 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.321 0.212 0.412 0.939 0.041 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 61 2.478 1.101 0.340 2.428 0.279 0.687 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.425 0.289 0.614 0.961 0.058 0.192 MINIMUM VALUE 58 1.863 0.877 -0.297 1.966 0.207 0.553 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 60 2.218 1.003 0.104 2.134 0.251 0.596 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 2.643 1.292 0.718 3.096 0.309 0.788 MAXIMUM VALUE 64 3.160 1.628 1.205 5.537 0.343 0.855 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.513 0.253 0.018 -0.576 2.432 -0.145 0.925 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.145 SERIES 040033 AND 040055 61 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.925 SERIES 040011 AND 040015 61 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.12 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1941. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.481 0.364 0.481 0.536 SDEV 0.000 0.316 0.331 0.215 SERR 0.000 0.023 0.024 0.016 EPS 0.939 0.920 0.949 0.958 NSS 16.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1931 1994 64 2.402 0.888 0.033 2.322 0.205 0.735 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.345 0.148 0.448 21 43 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.39 1.00 1.10 1.49 28.43 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.06 0.61 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 61. 1. 58. 60. 61. 64. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.723 0.619 0.528 0.412 0.324 0.271 0.216 0.166 0.208 0.176 PACF 0.723 0.201 0.055 -0.069 -0.034 0.030 0.002 -0.018 0.164 -0.032 95% C.L. 0.250 0.358 0.419 0.459 0.482 0.495 0.504 0.510 0.513 0.519 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.576 0.564 0.238 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 040011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02662771 3.98496723 2 040013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02780910 3.58781958 3 040015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03654997 3.72911477 4 040017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04447700 3.94075418 5 040021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02769879 3.44401097 6 040023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02967271 3.21172428 7 040025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02455874 3.11758614 8 040027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03570458 3.72466421 9 040031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00070756 2.62242627 10 040033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01058223 2.33145905 11 040035 1 1.15009570 0.02753403 0.00000000 1.71482944 12 040037 1 1.96847534 0.03081181 0.00000000 1.18179166 13 040041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00235010 2.45967793 14 040043 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01538677 2.84212995 15 040045 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01644762 2.62548590 16 040047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02558600 2.64370632 17 040051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04226007 4.27345228 18 040053 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05548589 3.91941833 19 040055 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04827050 4.12035942 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 040057 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05392880 3.72096729 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 040011 1934 1994 61 0.992 0.500 0.558 2.610 0.282 0.757 2 040013 1934 1994 61 0.993 0.393 0.374 2.768 0.333 0.469 3 040015 1934 1994 61 0.980 0.479 0.770 2.804 0.250 0.779 4 040017 1934 1994 61 0.972 0.484 0.668 2.359 0.263 0.751 5 040021 1937 1994 58 0.992 0.385 0.502 2.705 0.209 0.752 6 040023 1937 1994 58 0.988 0.410 1.142 3.947 0.222 0.748 7 040025 1937 1994 58 0.995 0.341 0.666 3.123 0.244 0.549 8 040027 1937 1994 58 0.989 0.398 0.725 3.186 0.237 0.705 9 040031 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.408 1.083 4.626 0.273 0.591 10 040033 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.362 -0.302 2.394 0.292 0.539 11 040035 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.361 0.123 2.745 0.292 0.532 12 040037 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.346 -0.133 2.347 0.276 0.523 13 040041 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.453 1.029 3.516 0.316 0.649 14 040043 1935 1994 60 0.997 0.489 1.129 4.035 0.294 0.691 15 040045 1935 1994 60 0.996 0.478 1.516 6.657 0.314 0.564 16 040047 1935 1994 60 0.989 0.466 1.396 5.243 0.334 0.520 17 040051 1931 1994 64 0.984 0.429 1.311 4.661 0.263 0.564 18 040053 1933 1994 62 0.971 0.315 0.930 3.798 0.248 0.468 19 040055 1933 1994 62 0.981 0.421 0.731 2.698 0.338 0.410 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 040057 1931 1994 64 0.985 0.249 0.230 2.596 0.199 0.393 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 0.990 0.408 0.722 3.441 0.274 0.598 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.009 0.067 0.494 1.140 0.041 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 61 0.992 0.409 0.728 2.964 0.274 0.564 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.014 0.111 0.668 1.337 0.057 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 58 0.971 0.249 -0.302 2.347 0.199 0.393 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 60 0.984 0.361 0.438 2.654 0.246 0.522 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 0.999 0.472 1.106 3.991 0.304 0.726 MAXIMUM VALUE 64 1.000 0.500 1.516 6.657 0.338 0.779 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 040011 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 040013 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 040015 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 040017 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 040021 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 040023 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 040025 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 040027 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 040031 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 040033 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 040035 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 040037 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 040041 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 040043 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 040045 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 040047 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 040051 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 040053 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 040055 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 040057 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 040011 1934 1994 61 0.993 0.299 0.436 2.842 0.274 0.292 2 040013 1934 1994 61 0.994 0.322 0.476 2.873 0.332 0.228 3 040015 1934 1994 61 0.993 0.274 0.320 2.587 0.250 0.382 4 040017 1934 1994 61 0.983 0.295 0.291 3.297 0.256 0.403 5 040021 1937 1994 58 0.995 0.234 -0.051 3.077 0.208 0.366 6 040023 1937 1994 58 0.994 0.233 0.399 3.797 0.221 0.363 7 040025 1937 1994 58 0.994 0.273 0.336 2.553 0.242 0.350 8 040027 1937 1994 58 0.994 0.313 1.139 5.778 0.232 0.553 9 040031 1934 1994 61 0.988 0.350 0.896 4.231 0.272 0.493 10 040033 1934 1994 61 0.989 0.334 -0.161 2.555 0.291 0.434 11 040035 1934 1994 61 0.988 0.318 -0.074 2.509 0.289 0.401 12 040037 1935 1994 60 0.992 0.323 -0.059 2.239 0.276 0.442 13 040041 1935 1994 60 0.993 0.351 0.076 2.345 0.314 0.444 14 040043 1935 1994 60 0.993 0.362 0.206 2.533 0.290 0.536 15 040045 1935 1994 60 0.992 0.369 0.627 3.923 0.306 0.419 16 040047 1935 1994 60 0.995 0.378 0.655 3.132 0.330 0.364 17 040051 1931 1994 64 0.994 0.316 0.876 3.831 0.264 0.343 18 040053 1933 1994 62 0.996 0.270 1.134 4.547 0.249 0.230 19 040055 1933 1994 62 0.991 0.342 0.497 3.609 0.337 0.215 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 040057 1931 1994 64 0.998 0.235 0.215 2.526 0.197 0.316 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 0.992 0.310 0.412 3.239 0.272 0.379 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.003 0.045 0.387 0.902 0.040 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 61 0.993 0.317 0.368 2.975 0.273 0.374 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.003 0.073 0.501 1.271 0.053 0.108 MINIMUM VALUE 58 0.983 0.233 -0.161 2.239 0.197 0.215 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 60 0.992 0.273 0.141 2.543 0.245 0.330 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 0.994 0.346 0.641 3.814 0.299 0.438 MAXIMUM VALUE 64 0.998 0.378 1.139 5.778 0.337 0.553 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.441 0.150 0.011 0.621 3.602 0.095 0.855 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.095 SERIES 040021 AND 040055 58 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.855 SERIES 040011 AND 040013 61 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.12 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1941. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.614 0.493 0.502 0.475 SDEV 0.000 0.238 0.226 0.190 SERR 0.000 0.017 0.016 0.014 EPS 0.963 0.951 0.953 0.948 NSS 16.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1931 1994 64 0.978 0.220 0.194 2.754 0.192 0.446 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.281 0.104 0.117 10 54 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.72 1.03 1.09 1.81 27.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.68 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.439 0.234 0.082 -0.105 -0.214 -0.264 -0.315 -0.339 -0.170 -0.200 PACF 0.439 0.051 -0.048 -0.168 -0.140 -0.114 -0.154 -0.176 0.040 -0.193 95% C.L. 0.250 0.294 0.306 0.307 0.309 0.318 0.332 0.350 0.370 0.375 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.196 0.441 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.450 0.261 0.057 -0.167 -0.254 -0.277 -0.315 -0.324 -0.180 -0.211 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.450 2 0.416 0.074 3 0.424 0.119 -0.108 4 0.400 0.145 -0.013 -0.222 5 0.373 0.144 0.005 -0.172 -0.124 6 0.363 0.130 0.005 -0.161 -0.095 -0.078 7 0.351 0.116 -0.020 -0.160 -0.075 -0.023 -0.153 8 0.322 0.112 -0.034 -0.190 -0.078 -0.001 -0.087 -0.187 9 0.321 0.111 -0.034 -0.191 -0.080 -0.001 -0.087 -0.185 -0.007 10 0.320 0.072 -0.052 -0.191 -0.097 -0.041 -0.094 -0.162 0.061 -0.211 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 448.72 436.26 437.91 439.16 437.93 438.94 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 440.54 441.02 440.73 442.73 441.81 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.450 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 20.22 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 125.35 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.450 0.202 0.091 0.041 0.018 0.008 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 040011 1 0.090 0.300 2 040013 1 0.056 0.235 3 040015 1 0.159 0.395 4 040017 1 0.181 0.414 5 040021 1 0.163 0.384 6 040023 1 0.165 0.366 7 040025 1 0.150 0.357 8 040027 1 0.360 0.560 9 040031 1 0.254 0.501 10 040033 1 0.213 0.441 11 040035 1 0.176 0.412 12 040037 1 0.209 0.457 13 040041 1 0.208 0.449 14 040043 1 0.311 0.544 15 040045 1 0.187 0.432 16 040047 1 0.145 0.370 17 040051 1 0.142 0.344 18 040053 1 0.056 0.230 19 040055 1 0.084 0.218 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 040057 1 0.108 0.321 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.171 0.387 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.077 0.096 MEDIAN 1 0.164 0.389 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.084 0.113 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.056 0.218 LOWER HINGE 1 0.125 0.332 UPPER HINGE 1 0.209 0.445 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.360 0.560 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 040011 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.285 0.657 3.589 0.320 -0.004 2 040013 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.313 0.500 2.776 0.374 0.005 3 040015 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.251 0.244 2.547 0.307 -0.030 4 040017 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.268 0.472 2.907 0.300 -0.053 5 040021 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.216 -0.185 3.345 0.248 -0.046 6 040023 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.217 0.265 3.844 0.252 -0.070 7 040025 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.254 0.388 3.055 0.289 -0.063 8 040027 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.258 1.015 5.519 0.274 0.136 9 040031 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.302 0.987 5.298 0.327 -0.035 10 040033 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.299 0.221 2.655 0.343 -0.070 11 040035 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.288 -0.135 2.743 0.351 -0.044 12 040037 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.285 -0.103 3.077 0.331 -0.006 13 040041 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.313 -0.066 2.355 0.380 -0.046 14 040043 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.302 0.189 2.247 0.327 0.074 15 040045 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.332 0.580 3.026 0.366 -0.003 16 040047 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.351 0.771 2.959 0.378 0.033 17 040051 1931 1994 64 1.000 0.297 0.736 3.855 0.325 -0.057 18 040053 1933 1994 62 1.000 0.262 0.812 4.094 0.281 -0.013 19 040055 1933 1994 62 1.000 0.334 0.421 2.868 0.371 -0.041 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 040057 1931 1994 64 1.000 0.222 0.413 3.015 0.226 0.023 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 1.000 0.282 0.409 3.289 0.318 -0.016 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.039 0.361 0.874 0.046 0.052 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 61 1.000 0.287 0.417 3.021 0.326 -0.033 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.000 0.051 0.491 0.957 0.073 0.051 MINIMUM VALUE 58 1.000 0.216 -0.185 2.247 0.226 -0.070 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 60 1.000 0.256 0.205 2.760 0.285 -0.050 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 1.000 0.308 0.696 3.716 0.358 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 64 1.000 0.351 1.015 5.519 0.380 0.136 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.413 0.150 0.011 0.699 3.484 0.120 0.849 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.120 SERIES 040013 AND 040023 58 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.849 SERIES 040011 AND 040013 61 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.12 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1941. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.714 0.449 0.361 0.411 SDEV 0.000 0.232 0.230 0.190 SERR 0.000 0.017 0.017 0.014 EPS 0.976 0.942 0.919 0.933 NSS 16.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1931 1994 64 0.990 0.191 0.268 2.414 0.220 0.036 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.222 0.083 0.124 13 51 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.28 1.00 1.06 1.34 2.62 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.43 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.036 0.110 0.065 -0.123 -0.136 -0.128 -0.164 -0.224 0.029 -0.188 PACF 0.036 0.109 0.059 -0.141 -0.147 -0.100 -0.118 -0.210 0.037 -0.196 95% C.L. 0.250 0.250 0.253 0.254 0.258 0.262 0.266 0.273 0.284 0.284 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 0.107 0.066 -0.121 -0.127 -0.117 -0.152 -0.220 0.044 -0.186 PACF -0.004 0.107 0.068 -0.133 -0.148 -0.101 -0.114 -0.215 0.037 -0.189 95% C.L. 0.250 0.250 0.253 0.254 0.257 0.261 0.265 0.270 0.281 0.281 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1931 1994 64 0.990 0.218 0.294 2.736 0.184 0.485 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.478 0.285 0.105 -0.125 -0.236 -0.286 -0.328 -0.333 -0.187 -0.238 PACF 0.478 0.074 -0.074 -0.218 -0.135 -0.095 -0.134 -0.154 0.026 -0.232 95% C.L. 0.250 0.302 0.318 0.320 0.323 0.334 0.349 0.368 0.386 0.392 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.234 0.480 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.14 MINUTES