RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN033I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN033I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 040 1 Vitrimont (F), EU-Pr. DENSITY_EARLY PCAB - 040 2 France Norway spruce 230 5359-705 1931 1994 - 040 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 040011 1934 1994 61 3.408 0.382 1.715 5.885 0.075 0.404 2 040013 1934 1994 61 3.243 0.378 1.356 6.478 0.082 0.272 3 040015 1934 1994 61 3.171 0.342 1.550 7.682 0.079 0.412 4 040017 1934 1994 61 3.185 0.382 1.348 6.668 0.073 0.570 5 040021 1937 1994 58 3.440 0.496 0.566 3.553 0.081 0.650 6 040023 1937 1994 58 3.587 0.570 0.688 2.829 0.074 0.773 7 040025 1937 1994 58 3.583 0.456 0.643 2.954 0.070 0.685 8 040027 1937 1994 58 3.501 0.411 0.436 2.887 0.074 0.623 9 040031 1934 1994 61 2.948 0.374 0.429 2.957 0.086 0.589 10 040033 1934 1994 61 2.958 0.425 0.823 3.975 0.092 0.532 11 040035 1934 1994 61 2.993 0.336 0.388 3.039 0.076 0.600 12 040037 1935 1994 60 3.201 0.454 -0.236 2.564 0.089 0.701 13 040041 1935 1994 60 3.467 0.394 2.017 11.258 0.086 0.266 14 040043 1935 1994 60 3.420 0.333 0.262 2.928 0.078 0.526 15 040045 1935 1994 60 3.580 0.302 -0.007 3.270 0.073 0.380 16 040047 1935 1994 60 3.541 0.313 1.097 6.496 0.078 0.152 17 040051 1931 1994 64 3.245 0.363 0.139 2.260 0.079 0.579 18 040053 1933 1994 62 3.375 0.333 -0.150 2.668 0.062 0.655 19 040055 1933 1994 62 3.125 0.321 0.250 2.893 0.078 0.583 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 040057 1931 1994 64 3.420 0.365 -0.125 2.785 0.063 0.724 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1931 TO 1994 64 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 3.319 0.387 0.659 4.301 0.077 0.534 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.210 0.067 0.658 2.347 0.008 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 61 3.391 0.376 0.501 2.998 0.078 0.581 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.306 0.083 1.028 3.323 0.008 0.244 MINIMUM VALUE 58 2.948 0.302 -0.236 2.260 0.062 0.152 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 60 3.178 0.335 0.195 2.858 0.073 0.408 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 3.484 0.418 1.223 6.181 0.082 0.653 MAXIMUM VALUE 64 3.587 0.570 2.017 11.258 0.092 0.773 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.522 0.185 0.013 -0.834 4.205 -0.184 0.888 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.184 SERIES 040011 AND 040057 61 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.888 SERIES 040021 AND 040027 58 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.12 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1941. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.794 0.628 0.304 0.240 SDEV 0.000 0.173 0.307 0.271 SERR 0.000 0.013 0.022 0.020 EPS 0.985 0.971 0.897 0.863 NSS 16.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1931 1994 64 3.322 0.281 -0.126 2.896 0.055 0.583 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.432 0.183 -0.264 11 53 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.22 1.01 1.02 1.25 2.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.78 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 61. 1. 58. 60. 61. 64. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.574 0.499 0.575 0.436 0.336 0.297 0.137 0.120 0.146 0.051 PACF 0.574 0.253 0.344 -0.019 -0.076 -0.082 -0.218 0.004 0.115 0.038 95% C.L. 0.250 0.322 0.367 0.420 0.447 0.463 0.474 0.477 0.479 0.482 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.495 0.389 0.056 0.369 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 040011 1 2.07150030 0.30438763 0.00000000 3.31291580 2 040013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00509254 3.08475399 3 040015 1 2.54708409 0.51265562 0.00000000 3.10830832 4 040017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00224431 3.11501646 5 040021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01723492 2.93139744 6 040023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01713925 3.08163333 7 040025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00947368 3.30362988 8 040027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01473377 3.06604362 9 040031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00902009 2.66791797 10 040033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01217610 2.58057380 11 040035 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00507509 2.83562303 12 040037 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01758044 2.66479659 13 040041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00345485 3.36162710 14 040043 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00381078 3.30360460 15 040045 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00600834 3.39641237 16 040047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00445735 3.40471745 17 040051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01270169 2.83172607 18 040053 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01275918 2.97260189 19 040055 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00927375 2.83287668 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 040057 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00945833 3.11291671 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 040011 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.079 1.449 6.140 0.071 -0.005 2 040013 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.116 2.153 10.169 0.081 0.206 3 040015 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.078 -0.132 3.076 0.076 0.212 4 040017 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.121 1.745 8.167 0.071 0.548 5 040021 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.123 1.352 6.191 0.080 0.451 6 040023 1937 1994 58 1.001 0.144 1.411 4.685 0.073 0.669 7 040025 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.123 1.347 4.641 0.069 0.627 8 040027 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.097 1.184 5.659 0.072 0.391 9 040031 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.118 1.145 4.620 0.085 0.486 10 040033 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.128 1.622 5.759 0.091 0.400 11 040035 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.110 1.053 4.189 0.075 0.550 12 040037 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.109 0.927 4.093 0.088 0.424 13 040041 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.113 2.252 11.762 0.085 0.242 14 040043 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.097 0.725 3.833 0.076 0.496 15 040045 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.080 0.487 3.361 0.072 0.280 16 040047 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.087 1.543 7.277 0.077 0.096 17 040051 1931 1994 64 1.000 0.088 0.994 5.346 0.077 0.217 18 040053 1933 1994 62 1.000 0.071 -0.258 2.701 0.061 0.367 19 040055 1933 1994 62 1.000 0.088 0.819 3.883 0.077 0.397 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 040057 1931 1994 64 1.000 0.096 1.016 5.084 0.062 0.578 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 1.000 0.103 1.142 5.532 0.076 0.382 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.020 0.634 2.317 0.008 0.180 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 61 1.000 0.103 1.165 4.884 0.076 0.399 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.000 0.032 0.623 2.178 0.009 0.292 MINIMUM VALUE 58 1.000 0.071 -0.258 2.701 0.061 -0.005 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 60 1.000 0.087 0.873 3.988 0.072 0.230 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 1.000 0.120 1.496 6.166 0.080 0.522 MAXIMUM VALUE 64 1.001 0.144 2.252 11.762 0.091 0.669 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 040011 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 040013 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 040015 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 040017 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 040021 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 040023 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 040025 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 040027 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 040031 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 040033 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 040035 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 040037 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 040041 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 040043 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 040045 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 040047 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 040051 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 040053 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 040055 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 040057 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 040011 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.075 1.905 8.462 0.071 -0.107 2 040013 1934 1994 61 0.999 0.096 1.636 6.716 0.081 0.059 3 040015 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.072 -0.102 3.344 0.076 0.074 4 040017 1934 1994 61 0.998 0.077 0.424 4.260 0.071 0.257 5 040021 1937 1994 58 0.999 0.080 0.677 3.998 0.078 0.003 6 040023 1937 1994 58 0.999 0.078 0.856 3.822 0.070 0.243 7 040025 1937 1994 58 0.998 0.089 1.128 4.638 0.066 0.489 8 040027 1937 1994 58 0.999 0.076 0.578 3.832 0.071 0.198 9 040031 1934 1994 61 0.999 0.093 0.896 3.443 0.084 0.239 10 040033 1934 1994 61 0.999 0.106 0.973 3.409 0.089 0.278 11 040035 1934 1994 61 0.999 0.092 0.842 3.394 0.074 0.416 12 040037 1935 1994 60 0.999 0.095 0.766 3.665 0.087 0.260 13 040041 1935 1994 60 0.999 0.101 2.673 14.771 0.084 0.087 14 040043 1935 1994 60 0.999 0.071 0.367 2.758 0.074 0.203 15 040045 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.070 0.612 3.734 0.071 0.082 16 040047 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.081 1.727 8.133 0.076 -0.014 17 040051 1931 1994 64 1.000 0.074 0.843 3.871 0.076 0.013 18 040053 1933 1994 62 1.000 0.061 -0.197 3.430 0.060 0.127 19 040055 1933 1994 62 0.999 0.074 0.678 3.923 0.076 0.191 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 040057 1931 1994 64 0.999 0.074 1.032 6.010 0.061 0.363 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 0.999 0.082 0.916 4.981 0.075 0.173 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.012 0.668 2.803 0.008 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 61 0.999 0.078 0.842 3.852 0.075 0.194 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.001 0.018 0.484 1.887 0.009 0.192 MINIMUM VALUE 58 0.998 0.061 -0.197 2.758 0.060 -0.107 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 60 0.999 0.074 0.595 3.437 0.071 0.066 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 1.000 0.093 1.080 5.324 0.079 0.258 MAXIMUM VALUE 64 1.000 0.106 2.673 14.771 0.089 0.489 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.439 0.168 0.012 -0.063 2.671 0.039 0.816 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.039 SERIES 040011 AND 040053 61 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.816 SERIES 040041 AND 040047 60 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.12 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1941. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.727 0.542 0.457 0.216 SDEV 0.000 0.218 0.225 0.288 SERR 0.000 0.016 0.016 0.021 EPS 0.978 0.959 0.944 0.847 NSS 16.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1931 1994 64 1.002 0.063 0.950 5.248 0.054 0.256 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.566 0.215 -0.157 18 46 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.43 1.01 1.14 1.57 3.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.71 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.252 0.206 0.298 0.123 0.031 0.015 -0.222 -0.194 -0.072 -0.178 PACF 0.252 0.152 0.236 -0.012 -0.079 -0.069 -0.272 -0.122 0.067 0.003 95% C.L. 0.250 0.265 0.275 0.295 0.298 0.298 0.298 0.308 0.316 0.317 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.101 0.276 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.206 0.165 0.217 0.022 -0.043 0.000 -0.293 -0.171 -0.012 -0.138 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.206 2 0.180 0.128 3 0.158 0.097 0.171 4 0.170 0.104 0.181 -0.069 5 0.164 0.121 0.191 -0.053 -0.093 6 0.163 0.120 0.193 -0.052 -0.091 -0.011 7 0.159 0.093 0.178 0.005 -0.056 0.037 -0.293 8 0.142 0.096 0.174 0.005 -0.045 0.043 -0.283 -0.061 9 0.148 0.127 0.170 0.010 -0.046 0.023 -0.294 -0.076 0.111 10 0.150 0.126 0.165 0.010 -0.047 0.024 -0.291 -0.074 0.113 -0.017 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 276.53 275.75 276.70 276.81 278.50 279.95 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 281.94 278.21 279.97 281.18 283.16 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.206 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.26 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.45 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.206 0.043 0.009 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 040011 1 0.027 -0.108 2 040013 1 0.005 0.068 3 040015 1 0.032 0.074 4 040017 1 0.160 0.284 5 040021 1 0.026 0.003 6 040023 1 0.064 0.251 7 040025 1 0.308 0.512 8 040027 1 0.045 0.212 9 040031 1 0.094 0.243 10 040033 1 0.109 0.304 11 040035 1 0.205 0.441 12 040037 1 0.075 0.273 13 040041 1 0.008 0.087 14 040043 1 0.057 0.209 15 040045 1 0.022 0.083 16 040047 1 0.003 -0.015 17 040051 1 0.033 0.014 18 040053 1 0.024 0.127 19 040055 1 0.038 0.194 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 040057 1 0.187 0.416 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.076 0.184 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.081 0.163 MEDIAN 1 0.042 0.201 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.076 0.208 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.003 -0.108 LOWER HINGE 1 0.025 0.071 UPPER HINGE 1 0.101 0.279 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.308 0.512 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 040011 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.075 1.777 8.080 0.069 -0.013 2 040013 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.096 1.747 7.014 0.083 -0.005 3 040015 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.072 -0.106 3.387 0.078 0.012 4 040017 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.073 0.441 4.104 0.085 -0.101 5 040021 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.080 0.677 3.998 0.078 -0.001 6 040023 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.076 1.055 4.763 0.079 -0.016 7 040025 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.075 0.556 4.842 0.086 -0.143 8 040027 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.074 0.590 3.957 0.079 -0.016 9 040031 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.090 0.901 3.618 0.095 -0.048 10 040033 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.101 1.219 3.986 0.099 -0.039 11 040035 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.082 0.887 3.469 0.093 -0.071 12 040037 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.091 0.814 3.742 0.095 -0.007 13 040041 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.101 2.758 15.133 0.088 -0.003 14 040043 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.069 0.341 2.602 0.083 -0.028 15 040045 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.069 0.624 3.687 0.074 0.009 16 040047 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.081 1.718 8.089 0.076 -0.001 17 040051 1931 1994 64 1.000 0.074 0.851 3.853 0.077 0.002 18 040053 1933 1994 62 1.000 0.061 -0.218 3.608 0.065 -0.011 19 040055 1933 1994 62 1.000 0.073 0.748 4.014 0.084 0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 040057 1931 1994 64 1.000 0.066 0.945 4.960 0.073 -0.105 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 1.000 0.079 0.916 5.045 0.082 -0.029 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.011 0.684 2.809 0.009 0.043 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 61 1.000 0.075 0.833 3.992 0.081 -0.012 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.000 0.014 0.564 1.249 0.011 0.043 MINIMUM VALUE 58 1.000 0.061 -0.218 2.602 0.065 -0.143 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 60 1.000 0.072 0.573 3.653 0.076 -0.043 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 1.000 0.086 1.137 4.901 0.087 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 64 1.000 0.101 2.758 15.133 0.099 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.426 0.173 0.013 -0.015 2.611 0.026 0.819 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.026 SERIES 040013 AND 040053 61 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.819 SERIES 040041 AND 040047 60 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.12 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1941. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.752 0.506 0.433 0.231 SDEV 0.000 0.225 0.227 0.288 SERR 0.000 0.016 0.016 0.021 EPS 0.980 0.953 0.939 0.858 NSS 16.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1931 1994 64 1.002 0.059 1.059 5.269 0.058 0.002 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.450 0.176 -0.121 21 43 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.38 1.00 1.08 1.46 3.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.76 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.094 0.251 0.054 0.001 0.044 -0.215 -0.149 0.007 -0.136 PACF 0.002 0.094 0.253 0.054 -0.046 -0.033 -0.258 -0.185 0.034 0.021 95% C.L. 0.250 0.250 0.252 0.267 0.268 0.268 0.269 0.279 0.284 0.284 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.093 0.251 0.054 0.001 0.045 -0.215 -0.148 0.007 -0.136 PACF 0.000 0.093 0.253 0.055 -0.046 -0.033 -0.258 -0.186 0.034 0.021 95% C.L. 0.250 0.250 0.252 0.267 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.279 0.284 0.284 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.011 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1931 1994 64 1.002 0.061 0.896 5.134 0.053 0.237 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.233 0.188 0.285 0.111 0.024 0.000 -0.229 -0.190 -0.065 -0.172 PACF 0.233 0.141 0.232 -0.010 -0.072 -0.079 -0.271 -0.119 0.072 0.004 95% C.L. 0.250 0.263 0.271 0.290 0.292 0.292 0.292 0.303 0.311 0.312 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.085 0.254 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.16 MINUTES