RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN033L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN033L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 040 1 Vitrimont (F), EU-Pr. WIDTH_LATE PCAB - 040 2 France Norway spruce 230 5359-705 1931 1994 - 040 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 040011 1934 1994 61 0.517 0.286 1.907 5.910 0.398 0.409 2 040013 1934 1994 61 0.374 0.214 1.847 6.136 0.376 0.520 3 040015 1934 1994 61 0.426 0.223 1.163 3.706 0.402 0.559 4 040017 1934 1994 61 0.434 0.196 0.790 3.025 0.390 0.440 5 040021 1937 1994 58 0.374 0.176 0.790 2.803 0.367 0.511 6 040023 1937 1994 58 0.425 0.233 0.689 2.464 0.369 0.597 7 040025 1937 1994 58 0.401 0.217 2.086 10.087 0.386 0.340 8 040027 1937 1994 58 0.357 0.183 1.483 5.287 0.293 0.688 9 040031 1934 1994 61 0.364 0.259 2.541 9.863 0.453 0.550 10 040033 1934 1994 61 0.396 0.371 4.140 19.654 0.454 0.266 11 040035 1934 1994 61 0.265 0.102 0.700 2.910 0.411 0.172 12 040037 1935 1994 60 0.291 0.142 1.446 5.025 0.377 0.432 13 040041 1935 1994 60 0.312 0.143 1.092 4.255 0.461 0.143 14 040043 1935 1994 60 0.311 0.130 1.171 5.921 0.411 0.114 15 040045 1935 1994 60 0.315 0.166 1.865 8.152 0.459 0.263 16 040047 1935 1994 60 0.291 0.311 6.603 43.827 0.477 0.046 17 040051 1931 1994 64 0.677 0.677 3.401 15.698 0.458 0.378 18 040053 1933 1994 62 0.412 0.211 1.080 3.777 0.413 0.384 19 040055 1933 1994 62 0.913 0.709 2.341 10.609 0.563 0.338 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 040057 1931 1994 64 0.425 0.241 0.791 2.819 0.408 0.585 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1931 TO 1994 64 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 0.414 0.259 1.896 8.596 0.416 0.387 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.149 0.161 1.440 9.459 0.056 0.178 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 61 0.385 0.215 1.464 5.599 0.410 0.396 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.112 0.101 1.278 6.610 0.075 0.270 MINIMUM VALUE 58 0.265 0.102 0.689 2.464 0.293 0.046 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 60 0.314 0.171 0.936 3.365 0.381 0.264 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 0.426 0.273 2.213 9.975 0.456 0.535 MAXIMUM VALUE 64 0.913 0.709 6.603 43.827 0.563 0.688 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.360 0.214 0.016 -0.156 2.320 -0.168 0.765 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.168 SERIES 040033 AND 040057 61 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.765 SERIES 040021 AND 040027 58 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.12 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1941. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.790 0.402 0.320 0.427 SDEV 0.000 0.212 0.251 0.207 SERR 0.000 0.015 0.018 0.015 EPS 0.984 0.931 0.904 0.937 NSS 16.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1931 1994 64 0.353 0.132 0.832 3.226 0.285 0.573 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.820 0.463 -0.020 43 21 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.37 3.91 1.01 1.41 5.33 48.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.79 0.87 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 61. 1. 58. 60. 61. 64. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.564 0.447 0.406 0.373 0.245 0.257 0.393 0.282 0.218 0.129 PACF 0.564 0.190 0.143 0.097 -0.088 0.084 0.278 -0.078 -0.048 -0.150 95% C.L. 0.250 0.320 0.357 0.384 0.406 0.416 0.425 0.448 0.459 0.465 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.373 0.462 0.199 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 040011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00289476 0.42714754 2 040013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00510259 0.21608196 3 040015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00233633 0.35396722 4 040017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00088525 0.40681967 5 040021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00521086 0.22076225 6 040023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00926666 0.15163340 7 040025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00646098 0.21043557 8 040027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00573687 0.18731397 9 040031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00820201 0.10983606 10 040033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01046854 0.07137705 11 040035 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00269540 0.18136066 12 040037 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00440428 0.15683617 13 040041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00223868 0.24422033 14 040043 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00099000 0.28063843 15 040045 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041400 0.30270621 16 040047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019728 0.28498304 17 040051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00261332 0.59241074 18 040053 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00065070 0.43210998 19 040055 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01039838 0.58519304 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 040057 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00165316 0.47888392 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 040011 1934 1994 61 0.998 0.532 1.925 6.235 0.392 0.373 2 040013 1934 1994 61 0.992 0.482 1.926 6.265 0.370 0.370 3 040015 1934 1994 61 0.998 0.508 1.162 3.758 0.395 0.529 4 040017 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.449 0.806 3.086 0.383 0.425 5 040021 1937 1994 58 0.994 0.395 0.844 3.109 0.362 0.293 6 040023 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.426 1.355 4.986 0.357 0.148 7 040025 1937 1994 58 0.988 0.420 1.783 8.299 0.382 0.162 8 040027 1937 1994 58 0.993 0.400 1.345 4.896 0.288 0.486 9 040031 1934 1994 61 1.018 0.517 1.605 5.291 0.445 0.221 10 040033 1934 1994 61 1.066 0.685 2.200 7.374 0.450 0.136 11 040035 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.343 0.789 2.726 0.403 -0.121 12 040037 1935 1994 60 1.001 0.392 1.102 3.723 0.368 0.185 13 040041 1935 1994 60 0.999 0.440 1.221 4.886 0.453 0.054 14 040043 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.415 1.179 5.864 0.405 0.080 15 040045 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.527 1.866 8.099 0.451 0.249 16 040047 1935 1994 60 1.000 1.069 6.617 43.961 0.469 0.045 17 040051 1931 1994 64 0.998 0.997 3.332 14.895 0.450 0.371 18 040053 1933 1994 62 1.000 0.513 1.081 3.693 0.407 0.379 19 040055 1933 1994 62 0.989 0.768 2.776 12.497 0.553 0.264 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 040057 1931 1994 64 0.998 0.564 0.817 2.787 0.402 0.576 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 1.002 0.542 1.787 7.822 0.409 0.261 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.016 0.196 1.321 9.076 0.055 0.180 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 61 0.999 0.495 1.350 5.138 0.403 0.256 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.004 0.130 0.834 4.028 0.074 0.234 MINIMUM VALUE 58 0.988 0.343 0.789 2.726 0.288 -0.121 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 60 0.996 0.418 1.091 3.708 0.376 0.142 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 1.000 0.548 1.925 7.737 0.450 0.376 MAXIMUM VALUE 64 1.066 1.069 6.617 43.961 0.553 0.576 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 040011 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 040013 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 040015 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 040017 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 040021 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 040023 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 040025 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 040027 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 040031 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 040033 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 040035 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 040037 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 040041 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 040043 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 040045 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 040047 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 040051 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 040053 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 040055 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 040057 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 040011 1934 1994 61 0.992 0.371 0.843 3.311 0.390 0.083 2 040013 1934 1994 61 0.992 0.382 1.359 4.909 0.370 0.130 3 040015 1934 1994 61 0.994 0.361 0.544 2.868 0.391 0.108 4 040017 1934 1994 61 0.995 0.369 0.271 2.669 0.381 0.177 5 040021 1937 1994 58 0.997 0.366 1.063 4.445 0.358 0.160 6 040023 1937 1994 58 0.993 0.378 1.655 7.886 0.360 -0.014 7 040025 1937 1994 58 0.998 0.375 1.851 9.068 0.380 -0.015 8 040027 1937 1994 58 0.991 0.320 0.928 3.919 0.287 0.269 9 040031 1934 1994 61 0.991 0.441 1.415 5.097 0.441 0.120 10 040033 1934 1994 61 0.997 0.535 1.793 6.384 0.450 0.088 11 040035 1934 1994 61 0.999 0.339 0.862 2.951 0.403 -0.153 12 040037 1935 1994 60 0.995 0.358 0.967 3.607 0.369 0.075 13 040041 1935 1994 60 0.997 0.419 1.196 4.848 0.453 -0.051 14 040043 1935 1994 60 0.997 0.367 0.681 3.761 0.404 -0.056 15 040045 1935 1994 60 0.993 0.479 1.264 5.113 0.450 0.140 16 040047 1935 1994 60 0.989 0.761 5.401 34.074 0.469 -0.028 17 040051 1931 1994 64 1.009 0.570 2.142 10.493 0.447 0.135 18 040053 1933 1994 62 0.996 0.362 1.010 4.108 0.415 -0.103 19 040055 1933 1994 62 0.991 0.604 1.648 6.310 0.552 0.065 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 040057 1931 1994 64 0.990 0.392 0.765 3.114 0.405 0.212 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 0.995 0.428 1.383 6.447 0.409 0.067 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.004 0.111 1.059 6.838 0.055 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 61 0.994 0.377 1.129 4.647 0.404 0.086 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.005 0.096 0.799 2.888 0.073 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 58 0.989 0.320 0.271 2.669 0.287 -0.153 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 60 0.991 0.364 0.852 3.459 0.375 -0.022 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 0.997 0.460 1.651 6.347 0.448 0.138 MAXIMUM VALUE 64 1.009 0.761 5.401 34.074 0.552 0.269 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.332 0.152 0.011 0.107 2.657 -0.042 0.724 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.042 SERIES 040037 AND 040055 60 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.724 SERIES 040041 AND 040043 60 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.12 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1941. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.296 0.296 0.373 0.415 SDEV 0.000 0.215 0.205 0.188 SERR 0.000 0.016 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.874 0.894 0.922 0.934 NSS 16.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1931 1994 64 0.974 0.256 0.366 3.532 0.290 0.140 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.658 0.262 0.040 24 40 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 1.47 1.00 1.15 2.62 39.84 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.76 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.138 -0.053 -0.083 -0.145 -0.264 -0.077 0.166 0.102 -0.107 -0.150 PACF 0.138 -0.074 -0.067 -0.131 -0.246 -0.043 0.139 0.015 -0.192 -0.204 95% C.L. 0.250 0.255 0.255 0.257 0.262 0.278 0.280 0.286 0.288 0.290 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.144 -0.087 -0.103 -0.103 -0.253 -0.143 0.148 0.098 -0.136 -0.198 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.144 2 0.160 -0.110 3 0.152 -0.098 -0.075 4 0.145 -0.107 -0.062 -0.088 5 0.123 -0.122 -0.089 -0.051 -0.254 6 0.094 -0.128 -0.099 -0.065 -0.240 -0.114 7 0.108 -0.099 -0.091 -0.053 -0.224 -0.125 0.122 8 0.110 -0.101 -0.094 -0.054 -0.225 -0.127 0.124 -0.014 9 0.107 -0.075 -0.121 -0.101 -0.236 -0.146 0.103 0.009 -0.210 10 0.055 -0.072 -0.095 -0.137 -0.295 -0.171 0.073 -0.009 -0.183 -0.249 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 470.08 470.74 471.95 473.59 475.09 472.84 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 474.01 475.04 477.03 476.15 474.06 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 040011 0 0.007 2 040013 0 0.017 3 040015 0 0.012 4 040017 0 0.031 5 040021 0 0.026 6 040023 0 0.000 7 040025 0 0.000 8 040027 0 0.073 9 040031 0 0.015 10 040033 0 0.009 11 040035 0 0.024 12 040037 0 0.006 13 040041 0 0.003 14 040043 0 0.003 15 040045 0 0.020 16 040047 0 0.001 17 040051 0 0.018 18 040053 0 0.011 19 040055 0 0.004 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 040057 0 0.045 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.016 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.018 MEDIAN 0 0.012 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.004 UPPER HINGE 0 0.022 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.073 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 040011 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.371 0.843 3.311 0.387 0.083 2 040013 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.382 1.359 4.909 0.367 0.130 3 040015 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.361 0.544 2.868 0.389 0.108 4 040017 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.369 0.271 2.669 0.379 0.177 5 040021 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.366 1.063 4.445 0.357 0.160 6 040023 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.378 1.655 7.886 0.357 -0.014 7 040025 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.375 1.851 9.068 0.379 -0.015 8 040027 1937 1994 58 1.000 0.320 0.928 3.919 0.285 0.269 9 040031 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.441 1.415 5.097 0.437 0.120 10 040033 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.535 1.793 6.384 0.448 0.088 11 040035 1934 1994 61 1.000 0.339 0.862 2.951 0.403 -0.153 12 040037 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.358 0.967 3.607 0.367 0.075 13 040041 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.419 1.196 4.848 0.452 -0.051 14 040043 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.367 0.681 3.761 0.403 -0.056 15 040045 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.479 1.264 5.113 0.447 0.140 16 040047 1935 1994 60 1.000 0.761 5.401 34.074 0.463 -0.028 17 040051 1931 1994 64 1.000 0.570 2.142 10.493 0.452 0.135 18 040053 1933 1994 62 1.000 0.362 1.010 4.108 0.414 -0.103 19 040055 1933 1994 62 1.000 0.604 1.648 6.310 0.547 0.065 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 040057 1931 1994 64 1.000 0.392 0.765 3.114 0.401 0.212 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 1.000 0.428 1.383 6.447 0.407 0.067 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.111 1.059 6.838 0.055 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 61 1.000 0.377 1.129 4.647 0.402 0.086 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 1 0.000 0.096 0.799 2.888 0.074 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 58 1.000 0.320 0.271 2.669 0.285 -0.153 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 60 1.000 0.364 0.852 3.459 0.373 -0.022 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 1.000 0.460 1.651 6.347 0.447 0.138 MAXIMUM VALUE 64 1.000 0.761 5.401 34.074 0.547 0.269 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.332 0.152 0.011 0.107 2.657 -0.042 0.724 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.042 SERIES 040037 AND 040055 60 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.724 SERIES 040041 AND 040043 60 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.12 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1941. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.296 0.296 0.373 0.415 SDEV 0.000 0.215 0.205 0.188 SERR 0.000 0.016 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.874 0.894 0.922 0.934 NSS 16.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1931 1994 64 0.980 0.256 0.370 3.536 0.288 0.139 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.661 0.261 0.039 24 40 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 1.47 1.02 1.15 2.62 39.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.78 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.137 -0.054 -0.083 -0.145 -0.264 -0.077 0.164 0.102 -0.108 -0.150 PACF 0.137 -0.074 -0.066 -0.131 -0.246 -0.044 0.137 0.015 -0.192 -0.205 95% C.L. 0.250 0.255 0.255 0.257 0.262 0.278 0.280 0.285 0.288 0.290 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1931 1994 64 0.980 0.256 0.370 3.536 0.288 0.139 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.137 -0.054 -0.083 -0.145 -0.264 -0.077 0.164 0.102 -0.108 -0.150 PACF 0.137 -0.074 -0.066 -0.131 -0.246 -0.044 0.137 0.015 -0.192 -0.205 95% C.L. 0.250 0.255 0.255 0.257 0.262 0.278 0.280 0.285 0.288 0.290 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.16 MINUTES