RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: fran034e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: fran034e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 263 1 Lac de Bourget WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 263 2 France Norway spruce 1340 4553-544 1891 1975 - 263 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 263080 1893 1975 83 2.175 0.903 1.820 9.438 0.300 0.505 2 263100 1909 1975 67 1.622 0.658 1.848 7.337 0.268 0.483 3 263110 1891 1956 66 2.287 1.297 0.985 3.135 0.208 0.842 4 263120 1894 1975 82 1.989 1.116 1.190 3.691 0.244 0.839 5 263130 1904 1975 72 1.766 0.717 1.008 4.402 0.302 0.554 6 263140 1900 1975 76 2.087 0.858 1.387 5.019 0.254 0.654 7 263150 1901 1975 75 2.331 0.558 0.511 3.550 0.184 0.474 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 7 FROM 1891 TO 1975 85 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 74 2.037 0.872 1.250 5.225 0.252 0.621 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.264 0.261 0.480 2.326 0.044 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 2.087 0.858 1.190 4.402 0.254 0.554 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.354 0.322 0.606 2.557 0.058 0.253 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.622 0.558 0.511 3.135 0.184 0.474 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 1.877 0.687 0.997 3.621 0.226 0.494 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 2.231 1.009 1.603 6.178 0.284 0.746 MAXIMUM VALUE 83 2.331 1.297 1.848 9.438 0.302 0.842 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 21 0.472 0.175 0.038 0.456 3.782 0.207 0.916 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.207 SERIES 263080 AND 263100 67 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.916 SERIES 263110 AND 263120 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 15. RBAR 0.450 SDEV 0.196 SERR 0.051 EPS 0.844 NSS 6.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1891 1975 85 2.195 1.003 1.800 6.099 0.208 0.787 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.027 0.007 0.549 13 72 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.13 7.33 1.17 1.55 8.88 329.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.10 0.00 0.81 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 75. 10. 66. 70. 79. 83. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.777 0.656 0.606 0.517 0.482 0.405 0.370 0.255 0.220 0.251 PACF 0.777 0.130 0.158 -0.047 0.099 -0.095 0.076 -0.242 0.127 0.105 95% C.L. 0.217 0.322 0.380 0.423 0.452 0.475 0.491 0.504 0.510 0.515 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.744 0.555 0.169 0.184 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 263080 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00825721 2.52174258 2 263100 1 1.74529982 0.06217900 0.00000000 1.22249448 3 263110 1 4.72895670 0.03832881 0.00000000 0.59961629 4 263120 1 4.07974720 0.04901703 0.00000000 1.01663184 5 263130 1 1.91377580 0.18046930 0.00000000 1.63116336 6 263140 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01636514 2.71729469 7 263150 1 1.78820503 0.00346104 0.00000000 0.75848758 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 263080 1893 1975 83 0.999 0.413 2.191 11.640 0.297 0.475 2 263100 1909 1975 67 1.000 0.281 0.706 4.933 0.263 0.265 3 263110 1891 1956 66 0.997 0.244 0.522 3.496 0.204 0.435 4 263120 1894 1975 82 0.999 0.288 1.256 7.947 0.240 0.404 5 263130 1904 1975 72 0.999 0.354 0.250 2.509 0.298 0.454 6 263140 1900 1975 76 0.999 0.360 1.380 6.283 0.250 0.536 7 263150 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.234 0.464 3.520 0.181 0.441 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 74 0.999 0.310 0.967 5.761 0.248 0.430 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.001 0.066 0.681 3.189 0.044 0.084 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 0.999 0.288 0.706 4.933 0.250 0.441 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.000 0.094 0.825 3.607 0.058 0.045 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.997 0.234 0.250 2.509 0.181 0.265 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.999 0.262 0.493 3.508 0.222 0.420 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.357 1.318 7.115 0.280 0.465 MAXIMUM VALUE 83 1.000 0.413 2.191 11.640 0.298 0.536 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 263080 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 263100 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 263110 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 263120 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 263130 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 263140 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 263150 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 263080 1893 1975 83 0.991 0.330 1.510 9.564 0.296 0.308 2 263100 1909 1975 67 0.998 0.267 0.603 4.800 0.263 0.194 3 263110 1891 1956 66 0.999 0.231 0.436 3.404 0.204 0.372 4 263120 1894 1975 82 0.998 0.270 1.105 7.661 0.239 0.362 5 263130 1904 1975 72 0.996 0.312 0.291 3.094 0.298 0.321 6 263140 1900 1975 76 0.998 0.345 1.205 5.626 0.249 0.523 7 263150 1901 1975 75 0.998 0.222 0.361 3.266 0.181 0.390 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 74 0.997 0.282 0.787 5.345 0.247 0.353 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.003 0.048 0.480 2.473 0.044 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 0.998 0.270 0.603 4.800 0.249 0.362 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.001 0.072 0.757 3.309 0.058 0.066 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.991 0.222 0.291 3.094 0.181 0.194 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.997 0.249 0.398 3.335 0.222 0.315 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 0.998 0.321 1.155 6.644 0.280 0.381 MAXIMUM VALUE 83 0.999 0.345 1.510 9.564 0.298 0.523 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 21 0.548 0.082 0.018 0.230 2.338 0.423 0.704 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.423 SERIES 263100 AND 263150 67 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.704 SERIES 263080 AND 263120 82 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 15. RBAR 0.604 SDEV 0.099 SERR 0.026 EPS 0.910 NSS 6.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1891 1975 85 0.996 0.213 -0.191 4.170 0.191 0.368 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.504 0.265 -0.107 18 67 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.98 4.17 1.03 1.17 5.34 115.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.11 0.00 0.80 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.364 0.036 0.008 -0.121 -0.041 -0.137 -0.149 -0.200 -0.339 -0.181 PACF 0.364 -0.111 0.040 -0.157 0.076 -0.192 -0.017 -0.212 -0.231 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.217 0.244 0.244 0.244 0.247 0.247 0.251 0.255 0.262 0.282 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.145 0.367 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.358 0.051 0.015 -0.107 -0.074 -0.133 -0.143 -0.169 -0.293 -0.189 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.358 2 0.389 -0.088 3 0.392 -0.100 0.031 4 0.396 -0.114 0.084 -0.137 5 0.399 -0.115 0.086 -0.144 0.018 6 0.401 -0.135 0.098 -0.160 0.072 -0.137 7 0.394 -0.131 0.090 -0.155 0.065 -0.116 -0.051 8 0.387 -0.148 0.099 -0.177 0.078 -0.135 0.005 -0.141 9 0.354 -0.147 0.068 -0.159 0.037 -0.112 -0.029 -0.051 -0.232 10 0.341 -0.150 0.066 -0.165 0.039 -0.121 -0.025 -0.060 -0.211 -0.058 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 439.69 430.05 431.38 433.30 433.69 435.66 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 436.06 437.84 438.14 435.45 437.16 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.358 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.80 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 114.68 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.358 0.128 0.046 0.016 0.006 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 263080 1 0.116 0.312 2 263100 1 0.051 0.194 3 263110 1 0.142 0.373 4 263120 1 0.150 0.368 5 263130 1 0.134 0.326 6 263140 1 0.276 0.526 7 263150 1 0.154 0.392 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.146 0.356 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.067 0.100 MEDIAN 1 0.142 0.368 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.027 0.064 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.051 0.194 LOWER HINGE 1 0.125 0.319 UPPER HINGE 1 0.152 0.383 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.276 0.526 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 263080 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.313 1.356 8.565 0.325 0.043 2 263100 1909 1975 67 1.000 0.261 0.757 4.918 0.279 -0.022 3 263110 1891 1956 66 1.000 0.215 0.700 3.631 0.226 0.019 4 263120 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.251 0.986 7.486 0.267 0.052 5 263130 1904 1975 72 1.000 0.295 0.105 2.999 0.318 0.061 6 263140 1900 1975 76 1.000 0.293 1.422 6.982 0.282 0.004 7 263150 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.204 0.567 3.889 0.215 -0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 74 1.000 0.262 0.842 5.496 0.273 0.022 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.042 0.460 2.169 0.042 0.032 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 1.000 0.261 0.757 4.918 0.279 0.019 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.000 0.061 0.538 3.474 0.053 0.049 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.204 0.105 2.999 0.215 -0.022 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.233 0.633 3.760 0.246 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.294 1.171 7.234 0.300 0.048 MAXIMUM VALUE 83 1.000 0.313 1.422 8.565 0.325 0.061 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 21 0.545 0.109 0.024 0.099 2.666 0.361 0.752 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.361 SERIES 263110 AND 263150 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.752 SERIES 263080 AND 263120 82 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 15. RBAR 0.619 SDEV 0.112 SERR 0.029 EPS 0.915 NSS 6.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1891 1975 85 0.996 0.205 0.013 4.350 0.219 0.050 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.460 0.238 -0.089 13 72 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 3.80 3.53 1.01 1.43 4.96 178.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.11 0.00 0.80 0.90 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.050 -0.107 0.051 -0.143 0.028 -0.085 -0.085 -0.072 -0.271 -0.072 PACF 0.050 -0.110 0.064 -0.164 0.064 -0.139 -0.037 -0.132 -0.265 -0.116 95% C.L. 0.217 0.217 0.220 0.220 0.225 0.225 0.226 0.228 0.229 0.244 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.006 -0.112 0.064 -0.147 0.039 -0.083 -0.078 -0.055 -0.265 -0.060 PACF 0.006 -0.112 0.066 -0.164 0.063 -0.135 -0.037 -0.121 -0.265 -0.124 95% C.L. 0.217 0.217 0.220 0.221 0.225 0.225 0.227 0.228 0.229 0.243 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.013 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1891 1975 85 0.997 0.216 -0.204 4.059 0.199 0.329 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.325 0.016 0.014 -0.129 -0.051 -0.131 -0.162 -0.196 -0.321 -0.150 PACF 0.325 -0.100 0.046 -0.167 0.059 -0.173 -0.055 -0.190 -0.241 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.217 0.239 0.239 0.239 0.242 0.243 0.246 0.251 0.258 0.276 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.115 0.327 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.07 MINUTES