RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: fran034n.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: fran034n.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 263 1 Lac de Bourget DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 263 2 France Norway spruce 1340 4553-544 1891 1975 - 263 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 263080 1893 1975 83 0.278 0.038 2.273 8.747 0.087 0.537 2 263100 1909 1975 67 0.274 0.028 0.922 5.460 0.071 0.526 3 263110 1891 1956 66 0.262 0.019 0.191 2.625 0.065 0.327 4 263120 1894 1975 82 0.268 0.024 1.374 6.126 0.073 0.389 5 263130 1904 1975 72 0.277 0.029 1.069 3.894 0.077 0.496 6 263140 1900 1975 76 0.260 0.025 0.944 4.274 0.078 0.401 7 263150 1901 1975 75 0.256 0.024 0.650 3.314 0.090 0.309 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 7 FROM 1891 TO 1975 85 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 74 0.268 0.027 1.061 4.920 0.077 0.427 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.009 0.006 0.649 2.070 0.009 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 0.268 0.025 0.944 4.274 0.077 0.401 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.015 0.004 0.436 2.189 0.011 0.153 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.256 0.019 0.191 2.625 0.065 0.309 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.261 0.024 0.786 3.604 0.072 0.358 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 0.276 0.028 1.222 5.793 0.083 0.511 MAXIMUM VALUE 83 0.278 0.038 2.273 8.747 0.090 0.537 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 21 0.435 0.176 0.038 -0.348 2.608 0.117 0.710 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.117 SERIES 263080 AND 263100 67 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.710 SERIES 263120 AND 263130 72 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 15. RBAR 0.547 SDEV 0.133 SERR 0.034 EPS 0.889 NSS 6.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1891 1975 85 0.264 0.021 1.487 7.457 0.063 0.392 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.527 0.258 -0.052 15 70 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.61 0.63 1.18 1.45 2.08 6.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.84 0.17 0.00 0.75 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 75. 10. 66. 70. 79. 83. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.388 0.231 0.258 0.181 0.118 0.123 0.035 -0.089 -0.117 -0.034 PACF 0.388 0.095 0.167 0.026 0.003 0.037 -0.068 -0.141 -0.092 0.057 95% C.L. 0.217 0.247 0.257 0.269 0.275 0.277 0.280 0.280 0.281 0.284 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.161 0.391 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 263080 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013706 0.27219513 2 263100 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045255 0.25864315 3 263110 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042793 0.24717949 4 263120 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011569 0.26312557 5 263130 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061772 0.29976916 6 263140 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022925 0.25077894 7 263150 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019972 0.24854414 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 263080 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.138 2.413 9.240 0.086 0.533 2 263100 1909 1975 67 1.000 0.096 1.070 4.706 0.070 0.442 3 263110 1891 1956 66 1.000 0.065 0.568 3.081 0.065 0.166 4 263120 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.090 1.441 6.012 0.072 0.382 5 263130 1904 1975 72 1.000 0.091 1.248 5.250 0.076 0.333 6 263140 1900 1975 76 1.000 0.092 0.791 3.949 0.077 0.368 7 263150 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.093 0.580 3.058 0.088 0.278 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 74 1.000 0.095 1.159 5.042 0.076 0.357 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.022 0.644 2.148 0.009 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 1.000 0.092 1.070 4.706 0.076 0.368 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.000 0.004 0.659 2.116 0.010 0.107 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.065 0.568 3.058 0.065 0.166 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.091 0.686 3.515 0.071 0.306 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.095 1.345 5.631 0.082 0.412 MAXIMUM VALUE 83 1.000 0.138 2.413 9.240 0.088 0.533 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 263080 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 263100 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 263110 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 263120 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 263130 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 263140 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 263150 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 263080 1893 1975 83 0.999 0.120 2.371 9.462 0.087 0.409 2 263100 1909 1975 67 1.000 0.086 1.328 5.798 0.070 0.300 3 263110 1891 1956 66 1.000 0.060 0.475 3.387 0.065 0.045 4 263120 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.083 1.410 6.468 0.073 0.257 5 263130 1904 1975 72 1.000 0.086 1.187 5.210 0.076 0.274 6 263140 1900 1975 76 0.999 0.082 0.765 3.946 0.077 0.224 7 263150 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.084 0.767 3.309 0.089 0.129 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 74 1.000 0.086 1.186 5.369 0.077 0.234 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.018 0.623 2.174 0.009 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 1.000 0.084 1.187 5.210 0.076 0.257 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.000 0.004 0.603 2.467 0.010 0.110 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.999 0.060 0.475 3.309 0.065 0.045 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.999 0.082 0.766 3.666 0.072 0.176 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.086 1.369 6.133 0.082 0.287 MAXIMUM VALUE 83 1.000 0.120 2.371 9.462 0.089 0.409 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 21 0.504 0.157 0.034 -0.891 4.045 0.089 0.728 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.089 SERIES 263100 AND 263110 48 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.728 SERIES 263120 AND 263130 72 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 15. RBAR 0.599 SDEV 0.112 SERR 0.029 EPS 0.908 NSS 6.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1891 1975 85 0.997 0.068 1.736 8.012 0.061 0.244 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.353 0.107 -0.058 13 72 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.11 4.60 1.00 1.14 5.75 10.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.11 0.00 0.81 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.241 0.045 0.013 -0.004 -0.036 -0.002 -0.107 -0.259 -0.289 -0.111 PACF 0.241 -0.014 0.005 -0.008 -0.035 0.016 -0.116 -0.222 -0.200 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.217 0.229 0.230 0.230 0.230 0.230 0.230 0.232 0.245 0.261 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.059 0.242 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.281 -0.015 0.028 -0.014 0.017 0.023 -0.079 -0.254 -0.270 -0.067 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.281 2 0.309 -0.102 3 0.316 -0.123 0.068 4 0.319 -0.129 0.083 -0.048 5 0.321 -0.132 0.088 -0.062 0.044 6 0.321 -0.132 0.088 -0.062 0.044 -0.001 7 0.321 -0.128 0.083 -0.054 0.032 0.028 -0.089 8 0.301 -0.122 0.090 -0.066 0.051 -0.001 -0.016 -0.227 9 0.264 -0.125 0.090 -0.058 0.040 0.014 -0.036 -0.177 -0.165 10 0.269 -0.119 0.091 -0.058 0.039 0.016 -0.039 -0.173 -0.173 0.030 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 232.57 227.60 228.71 230.32 232.13 233.96 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 235.96 237.29 234.81 234.47 236.39 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.281 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 7.88 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 108.55 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.281 0.079 0.022 0.006 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 263080 1 0.175 0.409 2 263100 1 0.159 0.314 3 263110 1 0.002 0.045 4 263120 1 0.069 0.263 5 263130 1 0.095 0.281 6 263140 1 0.076 0.226 7 263150 1 0.023 0.130 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.086 0.238 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.064 0.120 MEDIAN 1 0.076 0.263 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.081 0.120 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.002 0.045 LOWER HINGE 1 0.046 0.178 UPPER HINGE 1 0.127 0.298 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.175 0.409 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 263080 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.109 2.252 9.020 0.106 0.039 2 263100 1909 1975 67 1.000 0.081 1.539 6.379 0.077 0.064 3 263110 1891 1956 66 1.000 0.060 0.519 3.435 0.066 0.000 4 263120 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.080 1.166 5.681 0.084 -0.002 5 263130 1904 1975 72 1.000 0.082 1.207 5.108 0.087 0.029 6 263140 1900 1975 76 1.000 0.080 0.685 3.455 0.087 -0.038 7 263150 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.084 0.773 3.223 0.094 0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 74 1.000 0.082 1.163 5.186 0.086 0.015 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.014 0.595 2.093 0.013 0.033 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 1.000 0.081 1.166 5.108 0.087 0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.000 0.003 0.644 2.586 0.010 0.035 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.060 0.519 3.223 0.066 -0.038 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.080 0.729 3.445 0.081 -0.001 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.083 1.373 6.030 0.091 0.034 MAXIMUM VALUE 83 1.000 0.109 2.252 9.020 0.106 0.064 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 21 0.504 0.147 0.032 -0.515 3.222 0.152 0.726 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.152 SERIES 263100 AND 263110 48 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.726 SERIES 263120 AND 263130 72 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 15. RBAR 0.579 SDEV 0.118 SERR 0.030 EPS 0.901 NSS 6.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1891 1975 85 0.997 0.066 1.670 7.391 0.068 0.025 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.271 0.088 -0.042 15 70 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 2.03 1.00 1.17 3.20 280.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.12 0.00 0.80 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.025 -0.074 -0.009 -0.009 -0.045 0.069 -0.016 -0.201 -0.224 -0.032 PACF 0.025 -0.075 -0.005 -0.014 -0.045 0.070 -0.027 -0.193 -0.227 -0.065 95% C.L. 0.217 0.217 0.218 0.218 0.218 0.219 0.220 0.220 0.228 0.238 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 -0.075 -0.007 -0.007 -0.046 0.070 -0.013 -0.196 -0.218 -0.025 PACF 0.002 -0.075 -0.007 -0.013 -0.047 0.069 -0.020 -0.188 -0.230 -0.069 95% C.L. 0.217 0.217 0.218 0.218 0.218 0.219 0.220 0.220 0.228 0.237 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.006 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1891 1975 85 0.997 0.068 1.637 7.585 0.061 0.264 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.261 0.001 -0.007 -0.017 -0.034 0.035 -0.070 -0.260 -0.285 -0.112 PACF 0.261 -0.072 0.012 -0.019 -0.027 0.055 -0.104 -0.230 -0.187 -0.020 95% C.L. 0.217 0.231 0.231 0.231 0.231 0.232 0.232 0.233 0.246 0.261 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.073 0.262 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.13 MINUTES