RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: fran034p.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: fran034p.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 263 1 Lac de Bourget LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 263 2 France Norway spruce 1340 4553-544 1891 1975 - 263 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 263080 1893 1975 83 2.171 0.984 2.121 10.009 0.377 0.301 2 263100 1909 1975 67 1.943 0.641 0.585 5.196 0.339 0.085 3 263110 1891 1956 66 2.198 0.642 0.200 3.208 0.293 0.140 4 263120 1894 1975 82 2.485 0.839 0.613 5.353 0.306 0.268 5 263130 1904 1975 72 2.167 0.694 0.163 2.997 0.363 0.096 6 263140 1900 1975 76 2.534 0.734 0.336 4.132 0.334 0.056 7 263150 1901 1975 75 1.970 0.806 0.435 3.110 0.475 0.001 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 7 FROM 1891 TO 1975 85 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 74 2.210 0.763 0.636 4.858 0.355 0.135 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.228 0.124 0.677 2.472 0.060 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 2.171 0.734 0.435 4.132 0.339 0.096 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.273 0.154 0.331 2.116 0.050 0.133 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.943 0.641 0.163 2.997 0.293 0.001 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 2.069 0.668 0.268 3.159 0.320 0.071 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 2.341 0.822 0.599 5.275 0.370 0.204 MAXIMUM VALUE 83 2.534 0.984 2.121 10.009 0.475 0.301 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 21 0.357 0.200 0.044 -0.114 1.891 0.013 0.621 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.013 SERIES 263080 AND 263100 67 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.621 SERIES 263120 AND 263140 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 15. RBAR 0.512 SDEV 0.176 SERR 0.045 EPS 0.874 NSS 6.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1891 1975 85 2.113 0.610 0.207 4.375 0.281 0.187 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.613 0.302 -0.117 15 70 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 5.14 7.64 1.05 2.92 10.56 251.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.10 0.00 0.82 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 75. 10. 66. 70. 79. 83. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.185 -0.018 0.214 0.226 0.222 0.159 0.061 0.213 0.103 -0.068 PACF 0.185 -0.054 0.236 0.150 0.199 0.086 -0.017 0.137 -0.064 -0.146 95% C.L. 0.217 0.224 0.224 0.234 0.244 0.253 0.258 0.258 0.267 0.268 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.037 0.187 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 263080 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00126023 2.22425508 2 263100 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00323689 1.83278155 3 263110 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00892057 1.89934266 4 263120 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01538109 1.84619689 5 263130 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00100006 2.20400238 6 263140 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050431 2.55375791 7 263150 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00847226 1.64765406 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 263080 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.452 2.091 9.793 0.372 0.289 2 263100 1909 1975 67 1.000 0.333 0.745 5.679 0.334 0.071 3 263110 1891 1956 66 0.999 0.282 0.277 3.545 0.289 0.069 4 263120 1894 1975 82 0.998 0.310 0.591 4.155 0.303 0.135 5 263130 1904 1975 72 1.000 0.320 0.175 3.074 0.358 0.092 6 263140 1900 1975 76 1.000 0.290 0.351 4.187 0.330 0.055 7 263150 1901 1975 75 0.999 0.403 0.502 3.416 0.468 -0.046 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 74 0.999 0.341 0.676 4.836 0.351 0.095 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.001 0.063 0.653 2.344 0.060 0.102 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 1.000 0.320 0.502 4.155 0.334 0.071 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.001 0.068 0.354 1.453 0.049 0.051 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.998 0.282 0.175 3.074 0.289 -0.046 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.999 0.300 0.314 3.480 0.316 0.062 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.368 0.668 4.933 0.365 0.114 MAXIMUM VALUE 83 1.000 0.452 2.091 9.793 0.468 0.289 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 263080 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 263100 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 263110 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 263120 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 263130 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 263140 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 263150 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 263080 1893 1975 83 0.991 0.396 2.030 9.577 0.373 0.125 2 263100 1909 1975 67 0.998 0.312 0.608 6.417 0.333 -0.026 3 263110 1891 1956 66 0.997 0.253 0.296 4.207 0.288 -0.131 4 263120 1894 1975 82 0.996 0.278 0.826 5.906 0.302 -0.042 5 263130 1904 1975 72 0.998 0.310 0.206 3.206 0.357 0.034 6 263140 1900 1975 76 0.999 0.283 0.304 4.347 0.330 0.017 7 263150 1901 1975 75 0.998 0.375 0.176 2.739 0.468 -0.136 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 74 0.997 0.315 0.635 5.200 0.350 -0.023 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.003 0.052 0.658 2.341 0.060 0.093 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 0.998 0.310 0.304 4.347 0.333 -0.026 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.001 0.063 0.466 2.455 0.049 0.112 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.991 0.253 0.176 2.739 0.288 -0.136 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.997 0.280 0.251 3.707 0.316 -0.087 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 0.998 0.344 0.717 6.161 0.365 0.025 MAXIMUM VALUE 83 0.999 0.396 2.030 9.577 0.468 0.125 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 21 0.372 0.197 0.043 -0.122 1.948 0.021 0.655 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.021 SERIES 263080 AND 263110 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.655 SERIES 263120 AND 263140 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 15. RBAR 0.514 SDEV 0.166 SERR 0.043 EPS 0.876 NSS 6.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1891 1975 85 0.969 0.228 0.118 5.977 0.269 -0.059 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.288 0.149 0.059 19 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.40 2.21 1.02 1.32 3.53 25.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.10 0.00 0.82 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.058 -0.330 0.007 0.057 0.040 -0.050 -0.035 0.153 -0.006 -0.198 PACF -0.058 -0.335 -0.042 -0.064 0.033 -0.050 -0.018 0.137 0.000 -0.123 95% C.L. 0.217 0.218 0.240 0.240 0.241 0.241 0.242 0.242 0.246 0.246 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.120 -0.078 -0.339 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.148 -0.272 0.046 0.022 0.048 -0.054 -0.040 0.113 -0.087 -0.114 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.148 2 -0.193 -0.300 3 -0.210 -0.311 -0.057 4 -0.214 -0.333 -0.071 -0.069 5 -0.211 -0.330 -0.057 -0.060 0.044 6 -0.209 -0.333 -0.060 -0.076 0.033 -0.050 7 -0.210 -0.332 -0.062 -0.078 0.022 -0.057 -0.032 8 -0.208 -0.327 -0.064 -0.072 0.027 -0.030 -0.015 0.080 9 -0.201 -0.328 -0.066 -0.070 0.022 -0.035 -0.041 0.064 -0.078 10 -0.210 -0.321 -0.071 -0.073 0.024 -0.043 -0.048 0.028 -0.100 -0.108 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 434.55 434.66 428.62 430.34 431.94 433.77 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 435.56 437.47 438.93 440.40 441.40 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.193 -0.300 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.02 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.39 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.193 -0.263 0.109 0.058 -0.044 -0.009 0.015 0.000 -0.004 0.0009 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 263080 2 0.031 0.139 -0.106 2 263100 2 0.036 -0.030 -0.176 3 263110 2 0.069 -0.148 -0.122 4 263120 2 0.038 -0.050 -0.185 5 263130 2 0.118 0.047 -0.340 6 263140 2 0.023 0.019 -0.146 7 263150 2 0.044 -0.158 -0.135 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.051 -0.026 -0.173 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.033 0.106 0.079 MEDIAN 2 0.038 -0.030 -0.146 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.023 0.132 0.052 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.023 -0.158 -0.340 LOWER HINGE 2 0.033 -0.099 -0.180 UPPER HINGE 2 0.056 0.033 -0.128 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.118 0.139 -0.106 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 263080 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.391 2.084 9.961 0.376 0.007 2 263100 1909 1975 67 1.000 0.306 0.760 6.469 0.311 -0.011 3 263110 1891 1956 66 1.000 0.249 0.292 3.827 0.259 0.023 4 263120 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.273 0.999 5.882 0.287 0.007 5 263130 1904 1975 72 1.000 0.290 0.275 4.322 0.324 0.009 6 263140 1900 1975 76 1.000 0.280 0.431 4.248 0.324 -0.005 7 263150 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.368 0.205 3.012 0.443 -0.014 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 74 1.000 0.308 0.721 5.389 0.332 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.052 0.667 2.339 0.061 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 1.000 0.290 0.431 4.322 0.324 0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.000 0.061 0.596 2.138 0.051 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.249 0.205 3.012 0.259 -0.014 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.276 0.283 4.038 0.299 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.337 0.880 6.176 0.350 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 83 1.000 0.391 2.084 9.961 0.443 0.023 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 21 0.354 0.199 0.043 -0.075 2.040 -0.002 0.658 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.002 SERIES 263080 AND 263110 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.658 SERIES 263080 AND 263130 72 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 15. RBAR 0.484 SDEV 0.187 SERR 0.048 EPS 0.862 NSS 6.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1891 1975 85 0.977 0.213 0.556 6.771 0.247 -0.062 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.337 0.187 0.026 17 68 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.61 1.24 1.02 1.29 2.52 6.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.16 0.00 0.79 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.062 -0.159 0.032 -0.020 0.057 0.013 -0.059 0.083 -0.032 -0.160 PACF -0.062 -0.164 0.011 -0.044 0.062 0.010 -0.037 0.080 -0.036 -0.145 95% C.L. 0.217 0.218 0.223 0.223 0.223 0.224 0.224 0.225 0.226 0.227 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.005 0.018 -0.038 0.057 0.025 -0.050 0.057 -0.058 -0.165 PACF 0.001 -0.005 0.018 -0.038 0.057 0.024 -0.048 0.055 -0.056 -0.166 95% C.L. 0.217 0.217 0.217 0.217 0.217 0.218 0.218 0.219 0.219 0.220 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.001 -0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1891 1975 85 0.977 0.221 0.366 5.720 0.264 -0.150 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.149 -0.262 0.102 0.010 0.033 -0.003 -0.066 0.103 -0.013 -0.154 PACF -0.149 -0.290 0.009 -0.050 0.065 0.004 -0.040 0.087 -0.010 -0.117 95% C.L. 0.217 0.222 0.236 0.238 0.238 0.238 0.238 0.239 0.241 0.241 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.107 -0.193 -0.295 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.07 MINUTES