RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM041I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM041I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 016 1 Schluchsee (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_EARLY PCAB - 016 2 Germany Norway spruce 1200 4748-805 1932 1992 - 016 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 016011 1932 1992 61 3.305 0.367 2.087 9.637 0.065 0.667 2 016013 1933 1992 60 3.022 0.457 1.582 5.324 0.079 0.723 3 016016 1932 1992 61 3.007 0.393 1.509 5.363 0.062 0.745 4 016021 1937 1992 56 3.027 0.464 1.953 7.383 0.056 0.730 5 016025 1938 1992 55 2.972 0.407 1.761 5.497 0.049 0.789 6 016027 1937 1992 56 2.968 0.479 2.535 8.191 0.069 0.698 7 016031 1936 1992 57 2.914 0.277 1.166 5.850 0.065 0.500 8 016033 1937 1992 56 2.954 0.239 0.766 3.006 0.063 0.404 9 016034 1937 1992 56 2.990 0.286 0.206 2.901 0.064 0.475 10 016041 1935 1992 58 3.029 0.360 3.456 18.165 0.058 0.456 11 016047 1934 1992 59 3.186 0.255 0.705 4.623 0.059 0.544 12 016054 1934 1992 59 2.967 0.449 3.783 19.285 0.058 0.623 13 016056 1935 1992 58 2.911 0.336 1.496 5.301 0.065 0.591 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 13 FROM 1932 TO 1992 61 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 58 3.019 0.367 1.770 7.733 0.063 0.611 STANDARD DEVIATION 2 0.110 0.084 1.030 5.224 0.007 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 2.990 0.367 1.582 5.497 0.063 0.623 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 3 0.060 0.163 0.921 2.890 0.007 0.222 MINIMUM VALUE 55 2.911 0.239 0.206 2.901 0.049 0.404 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 56 2.967 0.286 1.166 5.301 0.058 0.500 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 59 3.027 0.449 2.087 8.191 0.065 0.723 MAXIMUM VALUE 61 3.305 0.479 3.783 19.285 0.079 0.789 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.429 0.299 0.034 -0.754 3.304 -0.453 0.911 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.453 SERIES 016025 AND 016047 55 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.911 SERIES 016021 AND 016025 55 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 92.88 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1942. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 78. 78. 78. RBAR 0.757 0.183 0.272 0.497 SDEV 0.000 0.302 0.276 0.201 SERR 0.000 0.034 0.031 0.023 EPS 0.972 0.745 0.829 0.928 NSS 10.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1932 1992 61 3.049 0.366 2.272 7.925 0.051 0.775 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.345 0.104 -0.075 17 44 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 3.25 1.01 1.11 4.35 10.84 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.75 0.85 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 58. 3. 55. 56. 59. 61. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.762 0.680 0.551 0.387 0.284 0.241 0.163 0.155 0.150 0.124 PACF 0.762 0.236 -0.062 -0.202 -0.023 0.154 -0.027 0.036 0.036 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.256 0.376 0.450 0.492 0.512 0.522 0.529 0.532 0.535 0.538 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.725 0.549 0.339 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 016011 1 1.57643318 0.25530133 0.00000000 3.21622872 2 016013 1 1.73099816 0.23826189 0.00000000 2.91526818 3 016016 1 1.68668079 0.13732669 0.00000000 2.81876254 4 016021 1 2.14347076 0.18601935 0.00000000 2.83957243 5 016025 1 1.90302157 0.16881201 0.00000000 2.78404999 6 016027 1 2.25525904 0.16082107 0.00000000 2.73742294 7 016031 1 1.42846668 0.30588916 0.00000000 2.84417558 8 016033 1 0.90043235 0.52915627 0.00000000 2.93051887 9 016034 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00971429 2.71350002 10 016041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00389246 2.91379309 11 016047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00432145 3.05611920 12 016054 1 2.81245422 0.33974782 0.00000000 2.84879160 13 016056 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00386662 3.02475500 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 016011 1932 1992 61 1.000 0.083 0.905 5.349 0.064 0.489 2 016013 1933 1992 60 1.000 0.122 1.336 5.849 0.077 0.595 3 016016 1932 1992 61 1.000 0.068 -0.074 2.854 0.061 0.339 4 016021 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.084 0.246 2.774 0.053 0.590 5 016025 1938 1992 55 1.000 0.064 0.410 2.896 0.047 0.498 6 016027 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.062 0.814 4.457 0.067 0.018 7 016031 1936 1992 57 1.000 0.069 -0.064 2.444 0.060 0.295 8 016033 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.076 0.969 3.750 0.062 0.351 9 016034 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.082 0.915 4.882 0.063 0.211 10 016041 1935 1992 58 1.000 0.120 4.430 25.066 0.057 0.401 11 016047 1934 1992 59 1.000 0.078 1.768 8.367 0.058 0.463 12 016054 1934 1992 59 1.000 0.084 0.722 3.684 0.058 0.342 13 016056 1935 1992 58 1.000 0.112 1.181 4.008 0.064 0.589 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 58 1.000 0.085 1.043 5.875 0.061 0.399 STANDARD DEVIATION 2 0.000 0.020 1.148 5.986 0.007 0.167 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.082 0.905 4.008 0.061 0.401 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 3 0.000 0.016 0.770 2.453 0.006 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 55 1.000 0.062 -0.074 2.444 0.047 0.018 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.069 0.410 2.896 0.058 0.339 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.084 1.181 5.349 0.064 0.498 MAXIMUM VALUE 61 1.000 0.122 4.430 25.066 0.077 0.595 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 016011 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 016013 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 016016 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 016021 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 016025 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 016027 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 016031 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 016033 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 016034 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 016041 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 016047 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 016054 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 016056 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 016011 1932 1992 61 1.000 0.063 2.252 11.919 0.064 0.135 2 016013 1933 1992 60 0.999 0.101 2.052 9.878 0.076 0.426 3 016016 1932 1992 61 1.000 0.056 -0.085 2.706 0.060 0.079 4 016021 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.062 0.651 4.926 0.052 0.328 5 016025 1938 1992 55 1.000 0.046 0.283 3.310 0.046 0.133 6 016027 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.059 0.860 4.950 0.066 -0.050 7 016031 1936 1992 57 1.000 0.058 0.494 2.919 0.060 0.021 8 016033 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.070 1.351 4.856 0.062 0.224 9 016034 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.072 0.819 5.220 0.063 0.047 10 016041 1935 1992 58 0.999 0.078 2.905 18.262 0.056 0.213 11 016047 1934 1992 59 0.999 0.062 0.656 4.846 0.057 0.303 12 016054 1934 1992 59 1.000 0.064 1.517 7.174 0.057 -0.124 13 016056 1935 1992 58 1.000 0.076 1.028 5.039 0.064 0.291 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 58 1.000 0.067 1.137 6.616 0.060 0.156 STANDARD DEVIATION 2 0.000 0.013 0.851 4.386 0.007 0.160 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.063 0.860 4.950 0.060 0.135 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 3 0.000 0.013 0.866 2.328 0.007 0.244 MINIMUM VALUE 55 0.999 0.046 -0.085 2.706 0.046 -0.124 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.059 0.651 4.846 0.057 0.047 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.072 1.517 7.174 0.064 0.291 MAXIMUM VALUE 61 1.000 0.101 2.905 18.262 0.076 0.426 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.333 0.167 0.019 0.306 2.629 -0.004 0.765 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.004 SERIES 016016 AND 016033 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.765 SERIES 016011 AND 016041 58 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 92.88 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1942. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 78. 78. 78. RBAR 0.106 0.275 0.285 0.303 SDEV 0.000 0.226 0.223 0.226 SERR 0.000 0.026 0.025 0.026 EPS 0.565 0.831 0.838 0.850 NSS 10.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1932 1992 61 0.997 0.047 1.813 9.200 0.048 0.149 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.452 0.222 -0.171 18 43 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.69 0.78 1.10 1.30 2.08 11.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.06 0.44 0.85 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.147 -0.014 -0.241 -0.101 -0.068 -0.124 -0.082 -0.208 -0.119 0.041 PACF 0.147 -0.037 -0.239 -0.034 -0.057 -0.180 -0.087 -0.254 -0.198 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.256 0.262 0.262 0.276 0.278 0.279 0.283 0.284 0.294 0.297 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.071 0.055 -0.141 0.059 -0.081 -0.239 -0.159 -0.207 -0.187 -0.087 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.071 2 0.067 0.051 3 0.075 0.061 -0.149 4 0.087 0.056 -0.155 0.080 5 0.093 0.044 -0.151 0.086 -0.078 6 0.072 0.067 -0.191 0.098 -0.053 -0.266 7 0.046 0.061 -0.181 0.079 -0.047 -0.259 -0.100 8 0.024 0.006 -0.191 0.096 -0.086 -0.245 -0.090 -0.215 9 -0.034 -0.019 -0.258 0.073 -0.060 -0.297 -0.089 -0.208 -0.271 10 -0.065 -0.043 -0.268 0.038 -0.066 -0.289 -0.118 -0.210 -0.275 -0.116 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 169.19 170.88 172.72 173.34 174.96 176.58 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 174.12 175.50 174.62 171.96 173.14 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 016011 0 0.019 2 016013 0 0.186 3 016016 0 0.006 4 016021 0 0.110 5 016025 0 0.018 6 016027 0 0.003 7 016031 0 0.000 8 016033 0 0.051 9 016034 0 0.002 10 016041 0 0.084 11 016047 0 0.113 12 016054 0 0.016 13 016056 0 0.097 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.054 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.059 MEDIAN 0 0.019 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.091 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.006 UPPER HINGE 0 0.097 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.186 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 016011 1932 1992 61 1.000 0.063 2.252 11.919 0.064 0.135 2 016013 1933 1992 60 1.000 0.101 2.052 9.878 0.076 0.426 3 016016 1932 1992 61 1.000 0.056 -0.085 2.706 0.060 0.079 4 016021 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.062 0.651 4.926 0.052 0.328 5 016025 1938 1992 55 1.000 0.046 0.283 3.310 0.046 0.133 6 016027 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.059 0.860 4.950 0.066 -0.050 7 016031 1936 1992 57 1.000 0.058 0.494 2.919 0.060 0.021 8 016033 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.070 1.351 4.856 0.062 0.224 9 016034 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.072 0.819 5.220 0.062 0.047 10 016041 1935 1992 58 1.000 0.078 2.905 18.262 0.056 0.213 11 016047 1934 1992 59 1.000 0.062 0.656 4.846 0.057 0.303 12 016054 1934 1992 59 1.000 0.064 1.517 7.174 0.057 -0.124 13 016056 1935 1992 58 1.000 0.076 1.028 5.039 0.064 0.291 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 58 1.000 0.067 1.137 6.616 0.060 0.156 STANDARD DEVIATION 2 0.000 0.013 0.851 4.386 0.007 0.160 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.063 0.860 4.950 0.060 0.135 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 3 0.000 0.013 0.866 2.328 0.007 0.244 MINIMUM VALUE 55 1.000 0.046 -0.085 2.706 0.046 -0.124 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.059 0.651 4.846 0.057 0.047 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.072 1.517 7.174 0.064 0.291 MAXIMUM VALUE 61 1.000 0.101 2.905 18.262 0.076 0.426 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.333 0.167 0.019 0.306 2.629 -0.004 0.765 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.004 SERIES 016016 AND 016033 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.765 SERIES 016011 AND 016041 58 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 92.88 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1942. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 78. 78. 78. RBAR 0.106 0.275 0.285 0.303 SDEV 0.000 0.226 0.223 0.226 SERR 0.000 0.026 0.025 0.026 EPS 0.565 0.831 0.838 0.850 NSS 10.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1932 1992 61 0.997 0.047 1.817 9.220 0.048 0.150 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.453 0.223 -0.172 18 43 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.70 0.79 1.12 1.31 2.10 11.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.07 0.45 0.85 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.147 -0.015 -0.241 -0.102 -0.067 -0.124 -0.082 -0.208 -0.119 0.042 PACF 0.147 -0.037 -0.239 -0.034 -0.057 -0.180 -0.087 -0.254 -0.197 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.256 0.262 0.262 0.276 0.278 0.279 0.283 0.284 0.294 0.297 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1932 1992 61 0.997 0.047 1.817 9.220 0.048 0.150 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.147 -0.015 -0.241 -0.102 -0.067 -0.124 -0.082 -0.208 -0.119 0.042 PACF 0.147 -0.037 -0.239 -0.034 -0.057 -0.180 -0.087 -0.254 -0.197 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.256 0.262 0.262 0.276 0.278 0.279 0.283 0.284 0.294 0.297 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES