RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM041T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM041T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 016 1 Schluchsee (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_LATE PCAB - 016 2 Germany Norway spruce 1200 4748-805 1932 1992 - 016 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 016011 1932 1992 61 7.080 0.816 -0.052 4.000 0.100 0.417 2 016013 1933 1992 60 6.531 0.754 0.040 3.399 0.087 0.597 3 016016 1932 1992 61 6.528 0.806 0.530 3.864 0.102 0.389 4 016021 1937 1992 56 6.498 0.687 0.119 3.408 0.100 0.339 5 016025 1938 1992 55 6.721 0.805 0.518 2.624 0.100 0.420 6 016027 1937 1992 56 6.312 0.548 0.319 2.997 0.080 0.338 7 016031 1936 1992 57 6.276 0.960 -0.158 2.930 0.145 0.229 8 016033 1937 1992 56 6.172 1.005 0.431 2.793 0.154 0.310 9 016034 1937 1992 56 6.356 0.933 0.060 3.041 0.164 0.168 10 016041 1935 1992 58 6.681 0.900 0.263 3.864 0.103 0.502 11 016047 1934 1992 59 6.899 0.803 -0.278 3.308 0.092 0.515 12 016054 1934 1992 59 7.000 0.790 -0.249 3.915 0.102 0.332 13 016056 1935 1992 58 6.884 0.901 -0.287 3.849 0.111 0.458 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 13 FROM 1932 TO 1992 61 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 58 6.611 0.824 0.097 3.384 0.111 0.386 STANDARD DEVIATION 2 0.293 0.121 0.296 0.478 0.026 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 6.531 0.806 0.060 3.399 0.102 0.389 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 3 0.529 0.111 0.478 0.866 0.011 0.126 MINIMUM VALUE 55 6.172 0.548 -0.287 2.624 0.080 0.168 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 56 6.356 0.790 -0.158 2.997 0.100 0.332 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 59 6.884 0.901 0.319 3.864 0.111 0.458 MAXIMUM VALUE 61 7.080 1.005 0.530 4.000 0.164 0.597 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.713 0.114 0.013 -0.684 3.148 0.396 0.904 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.396 SERIES 016013 AND 016047 59 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.904 SERIES 016031 AND 016034 56 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 92.88 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1942. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 78. 78. 78. RBAR 0.806 0.410 0.510 0.794 SDEV 0.000 0.222 0.248 0.098 SERR 0.000 0.025 0.028 0.011 EPS 0.979 0.900 0.931 0.980 NSS 10.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1932 1992 61 6.640 0.720 0.183 3.718 0.095 0.390 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.064 -0.016 0.626 5 56 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 0.30 1.30 1.34 1.64 2.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.08 0.71 0.83 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 58. 3. 55. 56. 59. 61. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.383 0.334 0.088 0.111 0.131 0.018 0.008 -0.042 0.018 0.039 PACF 0.383 0.219 -0.117 0.054 0.122 -0.114 -0.032 0.002 0.038 0.035 95% C.L. 0.256 0.291 0.315 0.317 0.320 0.323 0.323 0.323 0.323 0.324 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.234 0.296 0.268 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 016011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02526600 6.29675436 2 016013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044624 6.51772308 3 016016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00915653 6.24401617 4 016021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01184074 6.16075325 5 016025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01884921 6.19349480 6 016027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00194908 6.25641537 7 016031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01508037 5.83916044 8 016033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01078640 5.86419487 9 016034 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02450273 5.65756512 10 016041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03306808 5.70535374 11 016047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02968732 6.00819397 12 016054 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01972472 6.40808868 13 016056 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02613615 6.11346626 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 016011 1932 1992 61 1.000 0.098 -0.309 3.567 0.098 0.213 2 016013 1933 1992 60 1.000 0.116 0.057 3.401 0.086 0.587 3 016016 1932 1992 61 1.000 0.120 0.210 3.170 0.100 0.373 4 016021 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.101 -0.057 2.819 0.097 0.292 5 016025 1938 1992 55 1.000 0.111 0.379 2.443 0.098 0.349 6 016027 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.087 0.298 2.936 0.079 0.333 7 016031 1936 1992 57 1.000 0.148 -0.313 2.639 0.142 0.194 8 016033 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.160 0.324 2.583 0.151 0.291 9 016034 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.134 -0.134 2.364 0.161 0.019 10 016041 1935 1992 58 1.000 0.105 -0.368 3.585 0.101 0.275 11 016047 1934 1992 59 1.000 0.091 -0.279 3.298 0.090 0.233 12 016054 1934 1992 59 1.000 0.103 -0.400 3.325 0.101 0.200 13 016056 1935 1992 58 1.000 0.116 -0.358 3.886 0.108 0.305 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 58 1.000 0.115 -0.073 3.078 0.109 0.282 STANDARD DEVIATION 2 0.000 0.022 0.293 0.484 0.026 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.111 -0.134 3.170 0.100 0.291 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 3 0.000 0.019 0.523 0.762 0.011 0.120 MINIMUM VALUE 55 1.000 0.087 -0.400 2.364 0.079 0.019 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.101 -0.313 2.639 0.097 0.213 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.120 0.210 3.401 0.108 0.333 MAXIMUM VALUE 61 1.000 0.160 0.379 3.886 0.161 0.587 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 016011 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 016013 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 016016 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 016021 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 016025 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 016027 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 016031 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 016033 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 016034 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 016041 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 016047 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 016054 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 016056 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 016011 1932 1992 61 1.000 0.091 -0.623 4.074 0.098 0.130 2 016013 1933 1992 60 0.999 0.094 -0.657 5.871 0.085 0.419 3 016016 1932 1992 61 0.999 0.094 -0.898 4.214 0.099 0.064 4 016021 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.091 -0.419 3.280 0.097 0.163 5 016025 1938 1992 55 0.999 0.092 -0.013 2.777 0.098 0.099 6 016027 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.074 0.089 2.922 0.078 0.108 7 016031 1936 1992 57 0.999 0.134 -0.598 2.986 0.141 0.049 8 016033 1937 1992 56 0.999 0.132 0.119 2.978 0.149 0.013 9 016034 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.124 -0.386 2.506 0.160 -0.116 10 016041 1935 1992 58 1.000 0.096 -0.649 3.770 0.101 0.165 11 016047 1934 1992 59 1.000 0.087 -0.109 3.455 0.089 0.144 12 016054 1934 1992 59 1.000 0.096 -0.703 4.026 0.100 0.103 13 016056 1935 1992 58 0.999 0.100 -0.729 4.886 0.108 0.071 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 58 0.999 0.100 -0.429 3.672 0.108 0.109 STANDARD DEVIATION 2 0.000 0.018 0.341 0.948 0.025 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.094 -0.598 3.455 0.099 0.103 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 3 0.000 0.009 0.548 1.096 0.011 0.079 MINIMUM VALUE 55 0.999 0.074 -0.898 2.506 0.078 -0.116 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 56 0.999 0.091 -0.657 2.978 0.097 0.064 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.100 -0.109 4.074 0.108 0.144 MAXIMUM VALUE 61 1.000 0.134 0.119 5.871 0.160 0.419 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.684 0.104 0.012 -0.510 3.545 0.398 0.900 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.398 SERIES 016013 AND 016034 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.900 SERIES 016031 AND 016034 56 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 92.88 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1942. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 78. 78. 78. RBAR 0.812 0.488 0.564 0.738 SDEV 0.000 0.172 0.235 0.134 SERR 0.000 0.020 0.027 0.015 EPS 0.979 0.925 0.944 0.973 NSS 10.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1932 1992 61 1.003 0.085 -0.685 4.201 0.091 0.125 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.170 -0.046 0.100 12 49 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 1.02 1.03 1.05 2.07 4.15 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.73 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.123 0.145 -0.189 -0.144 -0.109 -0.210 -0.149 -0.166 -0.117 0.012 PACF 0.123 0.132 -0.228 -0.123 -0.016 -0.214 -0.160 -0.140 -0.191 -0.080 95% C.L. 0.256 0.260 0.265 0.274 0.279 0.282 0.292 0.297 0.303 0.306 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.076 0.140 -0.205 -0.124 -0.005 -0.116 -0.147 -0.212 -0.173 0.018 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.076 2 0.066 0.135 3 0.097 0.151 -0.230 4 0.070 0.168 -0.219 -0.116 5 0.080 0.187 -0.233 -0.122 0.085 6 0.093 0.169 -0.267 -0.095 0.097 -0.143 7 0.062 0.190 -0.287 -0.153 0.133 -0.123 -0.215 8 0.026 0.170 -0.265 -0.178 0.086 -0.091 -0.205 -0.166 9 -0.002 0.135 -0.281 -0.163 0.055 -0.137 -0.176 -0.162 -0.171 10 -0.009 0.128 -0.287 -0.169 0.057 -0.143 -0.187 -0.156 -0.171 -0.039 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 258.24 259.88 260.76 259.44 260.61 262.16 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 262.91 262.02 262.31 262.50 264.41 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 016011 0 0.017 2 016013 0 0.180 3 016016 0 0.004 4 016021 0 0.028 5 016025 0 0.010 6 016027 0 0.012 7 016031 0 0.002 8 016033 0 0.000 9 016034 0 0.014 10 016041 0 0.029 11 016047 0 0.023 12 016054 0 0.011 13 016056 0 0.005 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.026 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.047 MEDIAN 0 0.012 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.005 UPPER HINGE 0 0.023 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.180 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 016011 1932 1992 61 1.000 0.091 -0.623 4.074 0.098 0.130 2 016013 1933 1992 60 1.000 0.094 -0.657 5.871 0.085 0.419 3 016016 1932 1992 61 1.000 0.094 -0.898 4.214 0.099 0.064 4 016021 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.091 -0.419 3.280 0.097 0.163 5 016025 1938 1992 55 1.000 0.092 -0.013 2.777 0.098 0.099 6 016027 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.074 0.089 2.922 0.078 0.108 7 016031 1936 1992 57 1.000 0.134 -0.598 2.986 0.141 0.049 8 016033 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.132 0.119 2.978 0.149 0.013 9 016034 1937 1992 56 1.000 0.124 -0.386 2.506 0.160 -0.116 10 016041 1935 1992 58 1.000 0.096 -0.649 3.770 0.101 0.165 11 016047 1934 1992 59 1.000 0.087 -0.109 3.455 0.089 0.144 12 016054 1934 1992 59 1.000 0.096 -0.703 4.026 0.100 0.103 13 016056 1935 1992 58 1.000 0.100 -0.729 4.886 0.108 0.071 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 58 1.000 0.100 -0.429 3.672 0.108 0.109 STANDARD DEVIATION 2 0.000 0.018 0.341 0.948 0.025 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.094 -0.598 3.455 0.099 0.103 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 3 0.000 0.009 0.548 1.096 0.011 0.079 MINIMUM VALUE 55 1.000 0.074 -0.898 2.506 0.078 -0.116 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.091 -0.657 2.978 0.097 0.064 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.100 -0.109 4.074 0.108 0.144 MAXIMUM VALUE 61 1.000 0.134 0.119 5.871 0.160 0.419 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.684 0.104 0.012 -0.510 3.545 0.398 0.900 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.398 SERIES 016013 AND 016034 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.900 SERIES 016031 AND 016034 56 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 92.88 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1942. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 78. 78. 78. RBAR 0.812 0.488 0.564 0.738 SDEV 0.000 0.172 0.235 0.134 SERR 0.000 0.020 0.027 0.015 EPS 0.979 0.925 0.944 0.973 NSS 10.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1932 1992 61 1.003 0.085 -0.686 4.200 0.091 0.125 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.169 -0.046 0.100 12 49 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 1.01 1.04 1.05 2.06 4.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.73 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.123 0.145 -0.189 -0.144 -0.109 -0.210 -0.149 -0.166 -0.117 0.012 PACF 0.123 0.132 -0.228 -0.123 -0.016 -0.214 -0.161 -0.140 -0.191 -0.080 95% C.L. 0.256 0.260 0.265 0.274 0.279 0.282 0.292 0.297 0.303 0.306 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1932 1992 61 1.003 0.085 -0.686 4.200 0.091 0.125 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.123 0.145 -0.189 -0.144 -0.109 -0.210 -0.149 -0.166 -0.117 0.012 PACF 0.123 0.132 -0.228 -0.123 -0.016 -0.214 -0.161 -0.140 -0.191 -0.080 95% C.L. 0.256 0.260 0.265 0.274 0.279 0.282 0.292 0.297 0.303 0.306 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.19 MINUTES