RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM044L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM044L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 025 1 Sulzbach-Tal (D), EU-Pr. WIDTH_LATE PCAB - 025 2 Germany Norway spruce 390 4750-742 1890 1995 - 025 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 17 025101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 025103 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 025105 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1908 1909 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 025107 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 1 GAPS / 1904 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 025021 1917 1995 79 0.462 0.223 1.321 5.138 0.426 0.154 2 025023 1917 1995 79 0.407 0.160 1.554 7.018 0.388 0.089 3 025025 1917 1995 79 0.429 0.150 0.544 3.126 0.358 0.064 4 025027 1917 1995 79 0.406 0.158 0.909 3.162 0.371 0.195 5 025031 1917 1995 79 0.598 0.549 5.730 34.972 0.448 0.405 6 025033 1917 1995 79 0.464 0.170 0.502 2.778 0.375 0.167 7 025035 1917 1995 79 0.497 0.198 0.391 2.860 0.416 0.211 8 025037 1917 1995 79 0.570 0.260 0.902 3.667 0.433 0.383 9 025061 1890 1995 106 0.528 0.314 1.602 5.966 0.497 0.238 10 025063 1890 1995 106 0.448 0.277 3.406 20.944 0.485 0.157 11 025065 1890 1995 106 0.470 0.320 3.934 21.908 0.451 0.138 12 025067 1890 1995 106 0.470 0.249 2.230 12.596 0.481 0.186 13 025091 1893 1995 103 0.468 0.185 1.146 4.436 0.386 0.080 14 025093 1893 1995 103 0.440 0.166 0.395 2.991 0.412 0.207 15 025095 1893 1995 103 0.516 0.211 1.083 4.639 0.399 0.057 16 025097 1893 1995 103 0.512 0.239 1.142 4.649 0.410 0.372 17 025101 1891 1995 105 0.433 0.240 0.776 2.919 0.540 0.165 18 025103 1891 1995 105 0.434 0.250 1.630 5.760 0.521 0.160 19 025105 1892 1995 104 0.500 0.279 1.082 4.141 0.503 0.211 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 025107 1891 1995 105 0.469 0.314 2.801 13.849 0.525 0.310 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1890 TO 1995 106 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 93 0.476 0.246 1.654 8.376 0.441 0.197 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.051 0.090 1.366 8.522 0.056 0.102 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 100 0.469 0.239 1.144 4.644 0.430 0.176 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.069 0.101 1.091 6.662 0.098 0.079 MINIMUM VALUE 79 0.406 0.150 0.391 2.778 0.358 0.057 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.437 0.178 0.839 3.144 0.393 0.146 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 103 0.506 0.278 1.930 9.807 0.491 0.225 MAXIMUM VALUE 106 0.598 0.549 5.730 34.972 0.540 0.405 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.264 0.174 0.013 0.156 3.367 -0.246 0.740 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.246 SERIES 025027 AND 025093 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.740 SERIES 025063 AND 025067 106 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 82.67 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 66. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.639 0.414 0.343 0.331 0.239 0.339 0.354 0.229 SDEV 0.108 0.267 0.252 0.260 0.269 0.232 0.186 0.223 SERR 0.044 0.033 0.018 0.019 0.020 0.017 0.014 0.016 EPS 0.952 0.924 0.913 0.908 0.863 0.911 0.917 0.856 NSS 11.1 17.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1995 106 0.443 0.144 1.092 7.745 0.316 0.154 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.784 0.436 -0.027 43 63 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.50 1.86 1.00 1.10 2.97 47.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.72 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 103. 26. 79. 79. 105. 106. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.153 0.172 0.280 -0.067 0.126 0.016 -0.010 0.048 -0.019 0.144 PACF 0.153 0.152 0.246 -0.169 0.088 -0.054 0.038 -0.023 0.015 0.141 95% C.L. 0.194 0.199 0.204 0.218 0.219 0.222 0.222 0.222 0.222 0.222 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.140 0.130 0.140 0.274 -0.158 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 025021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00098345 0.50136322 2 025023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00211198 0.49144107 3 025025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017892 0.43589094 4 025027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050828 0.42590067 5 025031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009177 0.60177213 6 025033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041553 0.44704968 7 025035 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00089922 0.46111977 8 025037 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00603530 0.32871473 9 025061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026118 0.54189759 10 025063 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00058936 0.48002157 11 025065 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045333 0.49463072 12 025067 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00051404 0.44240430 13 025091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043360 0.49089661 14 025093 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011894 0.44618505 15 025095 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00175306 0.42476299 16 025097 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055792 0.48254138 17 025101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00140589 0.35207716 18 025103 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00078340 0.39010212 19 025105 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00378262 0.29950634 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 025107 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00390866 0.24918541 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 025021 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.475 1.201 4.427 0.421 0.162 2 025023 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.356 0.882 4.393 0.383 0.007 3 025025 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.349 0.522 3.100 0.354 0.062 4 025027 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.391 0.969 3.366 0.366 0.174 5 025031 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.916 5.719 34.887 0.442 0.400 6 025033 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.368 0.561 2.882 0.370 0.166 7 025035 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.396 0.346 2.794 0.410 0.188 8 025037 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.384 0.790 3.517 0.427 0.059 9 025061 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.593 1.590 5.938 0.493 0.239 10 025063 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.604 3.213 19.464 0.481 0.148 11 025065 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.669 3.804 20.973 0.447 0.131 12 025067 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.536 2.418 13.981 0.476 0.181 13 025091 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.394 1.153 4.593 0.382 0.092 14 025093 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.375 0.363 2.940 0.408 0.205 15 025095 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.421 1.910 8.468 0.395 -0.032 16 025097 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.472 1.287 5.186 0.406 0.361 17 025101 1891 1995 105 0.999 0.550 0.870 3.124 0.534 0.145 18 025103 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.572 1.663 5.683 0.513 0.147 19 025105 1892 1995 104 1.002 0.511 1.181 4.652 0.494 0.046 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 025107 1891 1995 105 1.005 0.553 1.505 6.494 0.531 0.166 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 1.000 0.494 1.597 8.043 0.437 0.152 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.001 0.138 1.324 8.257 0.057 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.474 1.191 4.623 0.424 0.155 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.000 0.175 0.957 4.236 0.098 0.107 MINIMUM VALUE 79 0.999 0.349 0.346 2.794 0.354 -0.032 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.387 0.830 3.245 0.389 0.077 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 105 1.000 0.562 1.787 7.481 0.487 0.184 MAXIMUM VALUE 106 1.005 0.916 5.719 34.887 0.534 0.400 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 025021 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 025023 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 025025 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 025027 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 025031 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 025033 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 025035 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 025037 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 025061 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 025063 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 025065 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 025067 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 025091 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 025093 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 025095 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 025097 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 025101 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 025103 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 025105 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 025107 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 025021 1917 1995 79 0.996 0.428 1.628 8.134 0.419 -0.002 2 025023 1917 1995 79 0.999 0.352 0.888 4.426 0.383 -0.017 3 025025 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.342 0.460 3.015 0.354 0.045 4 025027 1917 1995 79 0.997 0.359 1.079 4.482 0.366 0.022 5 025031 1917 1995 79 0.989 0.775 4.903 28.477 0.441 0.358 6 025033 1917 1995 79 0.997 0.353 0.631 3.527 0.369 0.113 7 025035 1917 1995 79 0.996 0.362 0.243 2.492 0.409 -0.005 8 025037 1917 1995 79 0.998 0.376 0.752 3.494 0.427 0.029 9 025061 1890 1995 106 0.986 0.536 1.503 5.459 0.492 0.136 10 025063 1890 1995 106 0.989 0.542 2.613 14.001 0.482 0.034 11 025065 1890 1995 106 0.982 0.543 3.041 15.730 0.445 0.015 12 025067 1890 1995 106 0.986 0.482 2.169 11.744 0.477 0.080 13 025091 1893 1995 103 0.997 0.380 1.084 4.296 0.382 0.043 14 025093 1893 1995 103 0.994 0.352 0.290 2.907 0.407 0.090 15 025095 1893 1995 103 0.998 0.424 2.547 13.285 0.395 -0.088 16 025097 1893 1995 103 0.992 0.439 1.147 4.563 0.407 0.258 17 025101 1891 1995 105 0.996 0.529 0.847 3.292 0.535 0.089 18 025103 1891 1995 105 0.995 0.540 1.583 5.669 0.513 0.073 19 025105 1892 1995 104 0.998 0.504 1.130 4.330 0.494 0.040 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 025107 1891 1995 105 0.997 0.519 1.243 5.792 0.531 0.137 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 0.994 0.457 1.489 7.456 0.436 0.072 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.005 0.108 1.116 6.389 0.057 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 0.996 0.433 1.138 4.522 0.423 0.044 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.007 0.172 1.099 6.429 0.098 0.083 MINIMUM VALUE 79 0.982 0.342 0.243 2.492 0.354 -0.088 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.990 0.360 0.800 3.510 0.389 0.018 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 105 0.997 0.533 1.898 9.939 0.487 0.101 MAXIMUM VALUE 106 1.000 0.775 4.903 28.477 0.535 0.358 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.290 0.163 0.012 0.120 3.311 -0.152 0.735 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.152 SERIES 025025 AND 025093 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.735 SERIES 025023 AND 025025 79 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 82.67 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 66. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.604 0.432 0.359 0.340 0.238 0.343 0.356 0.224 SDEV 0.119 0.256 0.239 0.252 0.267 0.233 0.187 0.215 SERR 0.049 0.032 0.017 0.018 0.019 0.017 0.014 0.016 EPS 0.944 0.929 0.918 0.912 0.862 0.913 0.917 0.853 NSS 11.1 17.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1995 106 0.957 0.298 1.224 7.491 0.324 -0.050 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.742 0.366 -0.033 50 56 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.90 1.01 1.20 2.09 27.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.75 0.86 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.050 -0.004 0.168 -0.187 0.020 -0.080 -0.061 -0.040 -0.133 0.131 PACF -0.050 -0.006 0.168 -0.176 0.008 -0.113 -0.005 -0.087 -0.107 0.109 95% C.L. 0.194 0.195 0.195 0.200 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.209 0.209 0.212 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.094 0.082 0.122 -0.124 -0.048 -0.124 -0.224 -0.106 -0.023 0.051 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.094 2 0.087 0.073 3 0.079 0.064 0.110 4 0.096 0.074 0.122 -0.153 5 0.089 0.079 0.125 -0.149 -0.043 6 0.084 0.062 0.139 -0.140 -0.033 -0.114 7 0.065 0.056 0.115 -0.116 -0.022 -0.100 -0.173 8 0.052 0.049 0.114 -0.124 -0.014 -0.096 -0.168 -0.073 9 0.054 0.055 0.117 -0.124 -0.009 -0.100 -0.170 -0.075 0.035 10 0.051 0.061 0.132 -0.115 -0.009 -0.089 -0.181 -0.080 0.030 0.089 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 828.72 829.78 831.20 831.92 831.40 833.20 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 833.80 832.57 834.00 835.87 837.03 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 025021 0 0.000 2 025023 0 0.000 3 025025 0 0.002 4 025027 0 0.001 5 025031 0 0.129 6 025033 0 0.013 7 025035 0 0.000 8 025037 0 0.001 9 025061 0 0.020 10 025063 0 0.001 11 025065 0 0.000 12 025067 0 0.007 13 025091 0 0.002 14 025093 0 0.008 15 025095 0 0.008 16 025097 0 0.067 17 025101 0 0.008 18 025103 0 0.005 19 025105 0 0.002 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 025107 0 0.021 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.015 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.031 MEDIAN 0 0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.001 UPPER HINGE 0 0.011 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.129 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 025021 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.428 1.628 8.134 0.418 -0.002 2 025023 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.352 0.888 4.426 0.383 -0.017 3 025025 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.342 0.460 3.015 0.354 0.045 4 025027 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.359 1.079 4.482 0.365 0.022 5 025031 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.775 4.903 28.477 0.436 0.358 6 025033 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.353 0.631 3.527 0.368 0.113 7 025035 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.362 0.243 2.492 0.408 -0.005 8 025037 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.376 0.752 3.494 0.426 0.029 9 025061 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.536 1.503 5.459 0.484 0.136 10 025063 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.542 2.613 14.001 0.477 0.034 11 025065 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.543 3.041 15.730 0.437 0.015 12 025067 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.482 2.169 11.744 0.470 0.080 13 025091 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.380 1.084 4.296 0.380 0.043 14 025093 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.352 0.290 2.907 0.404 0.090 15 025095 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.424 2.547 13.285 0.394 -0.088 16 025097 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.439 1.147 4.563 0.403 0.258 17 025101 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.529 0.847 3.292 0.532 0.089 18 025103 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.540 1.583 5.669 0.510 0.073 19 025105 1892 1995 104 1.000 0.504 1.130 4.330 0.493 0.040 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 025107 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.519 1.243 5.792 0.529 0.137 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 1.000 0.457 1.489 7.456 0.434 0.072 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.000 0.108 1.116 6.389 0.056 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.433 1.138 4.522 0.422 0.044 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.000 0.172 1.099 6.429 0.092 0.083 MINIMUM VALUE 79 1.000 0.342 0.243 2.492 0.354 -0.088 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.360 0.800 3.510 0.389 0.018 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 105 1.000 0.533 1.898 9.939 0.480 0.101 MAXIMUM VALUE 106 1.000 0.775 4.903 28.477 0.532 0.358 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.290 0.163 0.012 0.120 3.311 -0.152 0.735 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.152 SERIES 025025 AND 025093 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.735 SERIES 025023 AND 025025 79 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 82.67 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 66. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.604 0.432 0.359 0.340 0.238 0.343 0.356 0.224 SDEV 0.119 0.256 0.239 0.252 0.267 0.233 0.187 0.215 SERR 0.049 0.032 0.017 0.018 0.019 0.017 0.014 0.016 EPS 0.944 0.929 0.918 0.912 0.862 0.913 0.917 0.853 NSS 11.1 17.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1995 106 0.963 0.298 1.224 7.501 0.322 -0.051 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.747 0.370 -0.039 50 56 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.90 1.01 1.20 2.09 26.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.76 0.86 0.91 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.050 -0.004 0.167 -0.186 0.016 -0.081 -0.061 -0.041 -0.133 0.132 PACF -0.050 -0.007 0.167 -0.175 0.004 -0.114 -0.006 -0.086 -0.109 0.109 95% C.L. 0.194 0.195 0.195 0.200 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.208 0.209 0.212 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1995 106 0.963 0.298 1.224 7.501 0.322 -0.051 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.050 -0.004 0.167 -0.186 0.016 -0.081 -0.061 -0.041 -0.133 0.132 PACF -0.050 -0.007 0.167 -0.175 0.004 -0.114 -0.006 -0.086 -0.109 0.109 95% C.L. 0.194 0.195 0.195 0.200 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.208 0.209 0.212 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.20 MINUTES