RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM044N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM044N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 025 1 Sulzbach-Tal (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 025 2 Germany Norway spruce 390 4750-742 1890 1995 - 025 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 17 025101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 025103 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 025105 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1908 1909 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 025107 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 1 GAPS / 1904 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 025021 1917 1995 79 0.201 0.026 1.012 7.143 0.088 0.461 2 025023 1917 1995 79 0.205 0.025 1.604 6.582 0.092 0.367 3 025025 1917 1995 79 0.213 0.020 1.176 5.649 0.073 0.339 4 025027 1917 1995 79 0.197 0.020 0.254 4.318 0.081 0.300 5 025031 1917 1995 79 0.242 0.032 1.183 4.947 0.102 0.421 6 025033 1917 1995 79 0.267 0.022 0.396 3.385 0.063 0.437 7 025035 1917 1995 79 0.242 0.028 0.953 4.987 0.087 0.364 8 025037 1917 1995 79 0.250 0.033 0.628 3.797 0.098 0.582 9 025061 1890 1995 106 0.212 0.034 0.735 4.010 0.111 0.571 10 025063 1890 1995 106 0.237 0.028 1.116 6.473 0.094 0.371 11 025065 1890 1995 106 0.221 0.031 0.793 4.898 0.108 0.491 12 025067 1890 1995 106 0.212 0.035 1.846 7.876 0.100 0.561 13 025091 1893 1995 103 0.259 0.026 0.332 3.863 0.076 0.476 14 025093 1893 1995 103 0.268 0.036 0.477 3.887 0.076 0.689 15 025095 1893 1995 103 0.247 0.029 0.316 3.112 0.078 0.584 16 025097 1893 1995 103 0.255 0.031 0.758 3.251 0.069 0.714 17 025101 1891 1995 105 0.202 0.033 1.349 6.516 0.121 0.439 18 025103 1891 1995 105 0.206 0.032 0.954 4.006 0.121 0.411 19 025105 1892 1995 104 0.200 0.036 0.321 3.943 0.124 0.568 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 025107 1891 1995 105 0.205 0.049 3.332 21.094 0.142 0.294 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1890 TO 1995 106 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 93 0.227 0.030 0.977 5.687 0.095 0.472 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.025 0.007 0.711 3.884 0.021 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 100 0.217 0.031 0.873 4.608 0.093 0.450 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.044 0.008 0.742 2.620 0.033 0.200 MINIMUM VALUE 79 0.197 0.020 0.254 3.112 0.063 0.294 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.205 0.026 0.437 3.875 0.077 0.369 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 103 0.249 0.034 1.179 6.494 0.110 0.569 MAXIMUM VALUE 106 0.268 0.049 3.332 21.094 0.142 0.714 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.339 0.193 0.014 0.044 2.455 -0.110 0.809 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.110 SERIES 025031 AND 025107 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.809 SERIES 025101 AND 025103 105 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 82.67 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 66. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.915 0.417 0.575 0.584 0.363 0.263 0.272 0.304 SDEV 0.032 0.268 0.183 0.249 0.351 0.300 0.280 0.257 SERR 0.013 0.033 0.013 0.018 0.025 0.022 0.020 0.019 EPS 0.992 0.925 0.964 0.966 0.919 0.877 0.882 0.897 NSS 11.1 17.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1995 106 0.226 0.023 2.277 11.548 0.075 0.345 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.243 -0.104 0.059 18 88 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.36 1.01 1.07 1.43 2.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.06 0.57 0.85 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 103. 26. 79. 79. 105. 106. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.341 0.210 0.222 0.031 -0.050 -0.038 0.000 0.047 0.171 0.160 PACF 0.341 0.106 0.139 -0.110 -0.087 -0.021 0.062 0.082 0.166 0.044 95% C.L. 0.194 0.216 0.223 0.231 0.232 0.232 0.232 0.232 0.233 0.237 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.153 0.378 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 025021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010200 0.19680624 2 025023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007546 0.20757546 3 025025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030404 0.20087634 4 025027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016918 0.19019474 5 025031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020107 0.24968842 6 025033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028724 0.25559884 7 025035 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019888 0.23432328 8 025037 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033155 0.23699123 9 025061 1 0.11382479 0.18662456 0.00000000 0.20665315 10 025063 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004252 0.23432884 11 025065 1 0.10941590 0.14656013 0.00000000 0.21412092 12 025067 1 0.13982114 0.13611843 0.00000000 0.20293526 13 025091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027655 0.27350655 14 025093 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009258 0.26334095 15 025095 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002691 0.24848658 16 025097 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023152 0.24271844 17 025101 1 0.08410971 0.21658117 0.00000000 0.19880396 18 025103 1 0.07769675 0.27154103 0.00000000 0.20379052 19 025105 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002171 0.19833031 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 025107 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042130 0.17856969 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 025021 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.128 1.282 8.181 0.087 0.444 2 025023 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.123 1.448 6.048 0.091 0.366 3 025025 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.091 2.297 11.476 0.073 0.211 4 025027 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.100 0.560 5.501 0.080 0.251 5 025031 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.131 1.015 4.244 0.101 0.415 6 025033 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.080 0.882 4.632 0.063 0.348 7 025035 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.115 1.263 6.084 0.086 0.328 8 025037 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.129 0.787 4.100 0.097 0.539 9 025061 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.146 0.602 4.002 0.110 0.531 10 025063 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.120 1.228 6.984 0.093 0.364 11 025065 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.116 -0.009 3.000 0.107 0.353 12 025067 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.123 0.925 5.345 0.099 0.390 13 025091 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.096 0.174 3.198 0.075 0.445 14 025093 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.135 0.569 3.932 0.075 0.677 15 025095 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.116 0.298 3.046 0.077 0.580 16 025097 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.120 0.764 3.269 0.069 0.676 17 025101 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.147 1.074 5.216 0.118 0.352 18 025103 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.146 1.000 4.272 0.118 0.358 19 025105 1892 1995 104 1.000 0.179 0.386 4.003 0.126 0.574 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 025107 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.242 3.195 19.089 0.150 0.301 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 1.000 0.129 0.987 5.781 0.095 0.425 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.000 0.035 0.730 3.729 0.022 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.123 0.903 4.452 0.092 0.378 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.000 0.025 0.681 2.099 0.032 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 79 1.000 0.080 -0.009 3.000 0.063 0.211 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.116 0.564 3.967 0.076 0.350 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 105 1.000 0.141 1.246 6.066 0.108 0.535 MAXIMUM VALUE 106 1.000 0.242 3.195 19.089 0.150 0.677 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 025021 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 025023 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 025025 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 025027 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 025031 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 025033 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 025035 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 025037 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 025061 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 025063 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 025065 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 025067 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 025091 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 025093 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 025095 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 025097 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 025101 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 025103 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 025105 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 025107 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 025021 1917 1995 79 0.999 0.100 1.636 10.915 0.087 0.181 2 025023 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.110 1.483 7.089 0.091 0.253 3 025025 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.085 2.190 10.709 0.073 0.146 4 025027 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.091 0.609 5.649 0.080 0.128 5 025031 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.115 0.874 4.466 0.101 0.269 6 025033 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.074 0.854 4.517 0.063 0.279 7 025035 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.100 1.216 7.038 0.086 0.159 8 025037 1917 1995 79 0.999 0.117 0.732 4.232 0.097 0.462 9 025061 1890 1995 106 0.998 0.126 0.567 3.843 0.110 0.375 10 025063 1890 1995 106 0.999 0.099 0.568 4.183 0.094 0.198 11 025065 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.115 0.069 3.079 0.107 0.338 12 025067 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.120 1.109 6.058 0.099 0.354 13 025091 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.092 0.592 4.395 0.075 0.362 14 025093 1893 1995 103 0.999 0.111 1.207 7.238 0.076 0.464 15 025095 1893 1995 103 0.999 0.104 0.316 3.433 0.077 0.482 16 025097 1893 1995 103 0.999 0.109 0.787 3.978 0.069 0.600 17 025101 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.142 1.340 6.222 0.118 0.299 18 025103 1891 1995 105 0.999 0.137 1.141 4.846 0.119 0.269 19 025105 1892 1995 104 0.998 0.157 0.349 4.142 0.126 0.466 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 025107 1891 1995 105 0.997 0.207 3.188 19.463 0.150 0.159 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 0.999 0.115 1.041 6.275 0.095 0.312 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.001 0.029 0.713 3.785 0.022 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 0.999 0.110 0.864 4.681 0.092 0.289 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.001 0.023 0.698 2.901 0.032 0.229 MINIMUM VALUE 79 0.997 0.074 0.069 3.079 0.063 0.128 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.999 0.099 0.580 4.163 0.076 0.189 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 105 1.000 0.123 1.278 7.063 0.108 0.418 MAXIMUM VALUE 106 1.000 0.207 3.188 19.463 0.150 0.600 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.380 0.167 0.012 0.104 2.662 -0.025 0.801 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.025 SERIES 025031 AND 025097 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.801 SERIES 025101 AND 025103 105 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 82.67 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 66. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.796 0.418 0.573 0.609 0.392 0.298 0.300 0.308 SDEV 0.083 0.249 0.198 0.233 0.339 0.272 0.260 0.230 SERR 0.034 0.031 0.014 0.017 0.025 0.020 0.019 0.017 EPS 0.978 0.925 0.964 0.969 0.928 0.895 0.895 0.899 NSS 11.1 17.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1995 106 0.995 0.079 1.665 9.312 0.075 0.152 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.285 0.122 -0.038 31 75 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.83 1.01 1.13 1.96 8.23 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.70 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.151 -0.051 -0.086 -0.081 -0.148 -0.127 -0.023 -0.011 0.181 0.155 PACF 0.151 -0.075 -0.068 -0.062 -0.140 -0.104 -0.021 -0.050 0.160 0.078 95% C.L. 0.194 0.199 0.199 0.201 0.202 0.206 0.209 0.209 0.209 0.215 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.029 0.151 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.190 -0.005 -0.066 -0.020 -0.133 -0.162 -0.156 -0.071 0.120 0.128 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.190 2 0.198 -0.043 3 0.195 -0.031 -0.060 4 0.195 -0.031 -0.060 0.004 5 0.196 -0.039 -0.065 0.031 -0.138 6 0.179 -0.035 -0.073 0.026 -0.114 -0.122 7 0.165 -0.049 -0.069 0.018 -0.118 -0.101 -0.118 8 0.159 -0.054 -0.076 0.019 -0.122 -0.103 -0.109 -0.052 9 0.165 -0.040 -0.063 0.034 -0.124 -0.094 -0.103 -0.072 0.124 10 0.158 -0.036 -0.057 0.039 -0.117 -0.096 -0.099 -0.070 0.114 0.058 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 564.93 563.05 564.86 566.48 568.48 568.45 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 568.86 569.38 571.09 571.46 573.10 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.190 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.60 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.73 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.190 0.036 0.007 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 025021 1 0.037 0.191 2 025023 1 0.078 0.264 3 025025 1 0.028 0.167 4 025027 1 0.022 0.132 5 025031 1 0.077 0.271 6 025033 1 0.095 0.303 7 025035 1 0.027 0.164 8 025037 1 0.232 0.472 9 025061 1 0.147 0.376 10 025063 1 0.050 0.207 11 025065 1 0.115 0.338 12 025067 1 0.136 0.355 13 025091 1 0.152 0.389 14 025093 1 0.272 0.520 15 025095 1 0.265 0.512 16 025097 1 0.412 0.642 17 025101 1 0.091 0.301 18 025103 1 0.079 0.270 19 025105 1 0.227 0.469 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 025107 1 0.027 0.160 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.128 0.325 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.105 0.142 MEDIAN 1 0.093 0.302 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.146 0.230 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.022 0.132 LOWER HINGE 1 0.044 0.199 UPPER HINGE 1 0.190 0.429 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.412 0.642 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 025021 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.098 1.669 10.471 0.097 -0.004 2 025023 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.106 1.620 7.868 0.102 0.014 3 025025 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.083 2.118 10.211 0.080 -0.022 4 025027 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.090 0.722 6.072 0.088 0.005 5 025031 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.111 0.863 4.131 0.110 0.014 6 025033 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.070 0.982 5.226 0.075 -0.040 7 025035 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.098 1.521 8.098 0.094 -0.002 8 025037 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.103 0.590 3.575 0.121 -0.060 9 025061 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.117 0.596 4.055 0.135 -0.031 10 025063 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.097 0.616 4.326 0.105 -0.025 11 025065 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.108 0.160 2.830 0.127 0.001 12 025067 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.112 0.827 5.018 0.115 0.039 13 025091 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.084 0.684 3.704 0.091 -0.040 14 025093 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.092 1.254 6.549 0.098 -0.072 15 025095 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.088 0.270 3.447 0.094 0.006 16 025097 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.081 0.489 3.330 0.091 -0.056 17 025101 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.136 1.385 6.104 0.135 0.002 18 025103 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.132 1.253 5.345 0.136 -0.022 19 025105 1892 1995 104 1.000 0.138 0.629 5.219 0.158 -0.042 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 025107 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.204 3.395 20.628 0.163 -0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 1.000 0.107 1.082 6.310 0.111 -0.017 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.000 0.029 0.746 4.010 0.025 0.029 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.101 0.845 5.223 0.104 -0.014 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.000 0.025 0.847 3.329 0.039 0.043 MINIMUM VALUE 79 1.000 0.070 0.160 2.830 0.075 -0.072 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.089 0.606 3.879 0.092 -0.040 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 105 1.000 0.114 1.453 7.209 0.131 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 106 1.000 0.204 3.395 20.628 0.163 0.039 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.442 0.144 0.010 -0.094 2.651 0.065 0.806 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.065 SERIES 025031 AND 025107 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.806 SERIES 025101 AND 025103 105 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 82.67 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 66. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.817 0.449 0.618 0.653 0.449 0.385 0.364 0.339 SDEV 0.059 0.185 0.142 0.192 0.286 0.231 0.233 0.224 SERR 0.024 0.023 0.010 0.014 0.021 0.017 0.017 0.016 EPS 0.980 0.933 0.970 0.974 0.942 0.926 0.920 0.911 NSS 11.1 17.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1995 106 0.997 0.078 1.352 8.045 0.089 -0.144 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.377 0.133 -0.061 41 65 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.47 1.01 1.07 1.54 7.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.72 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.142 -0.064 -0.063 -0.017 -0.098 -0.102 -0.001 -0.053 0.161 0.146 PACF -0.142 -0.086 -0.087 -0.047 -0.124 -0.158 -0.079 -0.125 0.093 0.159 95% C.L. 0.194 0.198 0.199 0.200 0.200 0.202 0.203 0.203 0.204 0.209 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.028 -0.143 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.012 -0.096 -0.077 -0.040 -0.119 -0.120 -0.024 -0.032 0.182 0.155 PACF -0.012 -0.097 -0.080 -0.053 -0.139 -0.149 -0.075 -0.100 0.131 0.125 95% C.L. 0.194 0.194 0.196 0.197 0.198 0.200 0.203 0.203 0.203 0.209 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 -0.012 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1995 106 0.997 0.078 1.471 8.422 0.075 0.157 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.156 -0.081 -0.100 -0.084 -0.155 -0.149 -0.050 -0.003 0.201 0.163 PACF 0.156 -0.108 -0.072 -0.067 -0.153 -0.132 -0.057 -0.055 0.164 0.070 95% C.L. 0.194 0.199 0.200 0.202 0.203 0.208 0.212 0.212 0.212 0.219 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.036 0.156 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.12 MINUTES