RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM044X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM044X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 025 1 Sulzbach-Tal (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCAB - 025 2 Germany Norway spruce 390 4750-742 1890 1995 - 025 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 17 025101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 025103 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 025105 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1908 1909 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 025107 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 1 GAPS / 1904 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 025021 1917 1995 79 0.823 0.081 -0.250 2.398 0.111 0.138 2 025023 1917 1995 79 0.823 0.075 -0.072 2.431 0.094 0.192 3 025025 1917 1995 79 0.841 0.075 -0.096 2.456 0.103 0.120 4 025027 1917 1995 79 0.834 0.071 -0.448 2.959 0.096 0.060 5 025031 1917 1995 79 0.839 0.076 0.108 2.114 0.085 0.336 6 025033 1917 1995 79 0.872 0.093 -0.586 3.219 0.076 0.516 7 025035 1917 1995 79 0.842 0.082 -0.256 2.811 0.094 0.251 8 025037 1917 1995 79 0.866 0.088 0.131 2.660 0.092 0.382 9 025061 1890 1995 106 0.839 0.088 -0.886 4.638 0.105 0.108 10 025063 1890 1995 106 0.862 0.089 -1.268 5.420 0.111 0.083 11 025065 1890 1995 106 0.849 0.089 -0.687 3.700 0.117 0.054 12 025067 1890 1995 106 0.861 0.094 -1.230 6.046 0.114 0.147 13 025091 1893 1995 103 0.878 0.094 -1.202 4.677 0.075 0.625 14 025093 1893 1995 103 0.903 0.104 -1.477 5.074 0.070 0.697 15 025095 1893 1995 103 0.879 0.095 -0.912 3.889 0.089 0.502 16 025097 1893 1995 103 0.878 0.103 -1.115 4.730 0.088 0.555 17 025101 1891 1995 105 0.834 0.084 -0.548 3.216 0.088 0.400 18 025103 1891 1995 105 0.866 0.094 -0.585 2.951 0.092 0.423 19 025105 1892 1995 104 0.851 0.101 -0.597 2.927 0.089 0.542 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 025107 1891 1995 105 0.858 0.091 -0.474 3.033 0.084 0.444 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1890 TO 1995 106 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 93 0.855 0.088 -0.623 3.567 0.094 0.329 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.021 0.009 0.474 1.142 0.013 0.207 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 100 0.855 0.089 -0.586 3.125 0.092 0.359 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.030 0.013 0.760 1.923 0.017 0.380 MINIMUM VALUE 79 0.823 0.071 -1.477 2.114 0.070 0.054 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.839 0.081 -1.014 2.735 0.086 0.129 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 103 0.869 0.094 -0.253 4.658 0.104 0.509 MAXIMUM VALUE 106 0.903 0.104 0.131 6.046 0.117 0.697 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.519 0.153 0.011 -0.100 3.065 0.082 0.846 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.082 SERIES 025031 AND 025101 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.846 SERIES 025095 AND 025097 103 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 82.67 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 66. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.625 0.510 0.655 0.694 0.603 0.634 0.551 0.511 SDEV 0.164 0.205 0.179 0.161 0.199 0.205 0.239 0.221 SERR 0.067 0.025 0.013 0.012 0.014 0.015 0.017 0.016 EPS 0.949 0.947 0.974 0.978 0.968 0.972 0.961 0.954 NSS 11.1 17.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1995 106 0.851 0.067 -0.408 2.736 0.074 0.326 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.320 -0.120 0.169 24 82 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.27 1.00 1.09 1.36 18.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.74 0.85 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 103. 26. 79. 79. 105. 106. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.323 0.241 0.255 0.178 0.163 -0.066 0.112 0.046 0.177 0.053 PACF 0.323 0.152 0.160 0.043 0.051 -0.216 0.139 -0.023 0.228 -0.097 95% C.L. 0.194 0.214 0.224 0.234 0.239 0.243 0.244 0.246 0.246 0.251 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.153 0.247 0.109 0.168 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 025021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00093038 0.78544301 2 025023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00057157 0.79966897 3 025025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033057 0.82804286 4 025027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017843 0.82703990 5 025031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00121300 0.79097372 6 025033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00230794 0.78008765 7 025035 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00140920 0.78553069 8 025037 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00074051 0.83670884 9 025061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037267 0.81883556 10 025063 1 0.00777589 0.02406251 0.00000000 0.85892117 11 025065 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041847 0.82666844 12 025067 1 0.05489894 0.09613796 0.00000000 0.85618860 13 025091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00112617 0.81969160 14 025093 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00198172 0.80025131 15 025095 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00134264 0.80950314 16 025097 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00153385 0.79800683 17 025101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00113731 0.76967734 18 025103 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00152382 0.78297836 19 025105 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00165045 0.76201886 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 025107 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00148180 0.76783860 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 025021 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.096 -0.131 2.597 0.110 0.079 2 025023 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.091 0.175 2.496 0.093 0.161 3 025025 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.089 -0.027 2.423 0.102 0.111 4 025027 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.085 -0.423 2.923 0.094 0.056 5 025031 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.084 0.218 2.084 0.084 0.248 6 025033 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.089 -0.308 3.178 0.075 0.360 7 025035 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.090 -0.196 2.850 0.093 0.147 8 025037 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.100 0.136 2.732 0.090 0.355 9 025061 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.103 -0.981 4.640 0.104 0.091 10 025063 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.104 -1.257 5.406 0.109 0.081 11 025065 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.104 -0.669 3.997 0.116 0.039 12 025067 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.109 -1.196 5.995 0.113 0.133 13 025091 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.103 -0.612 3.779 0.075 0.591 14 025093 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.100 -0.731 3.958 0.070 0.581 15 025095 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.101 -0.506 3.374 0.088 0.404 16 025097 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.108 -0.659 3.788 0.087 0.457 17 025101 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.094 -0.452 3.612 0.088 0.316 18 025103 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.096 -0.330 3.260 0.093 0.241 19 025105 1892 1995 104 1.000 0.106 -0.156 2.624 0.087 0.450 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 025107 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.103 -0.290 2.991 0.089 0.355 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 1.000 0.098 -0.420 3.435 0.093 0.263 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.000 0.008 0.419 1.006 0.013 0.175 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.100 -0.376 3.219 0.092 0.244 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.000 0.013 0.520 1.195 0.016 0.281 MINIMUM VALUE 79 1.000 0.084 -1.257 2.084 0.070 0.039 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.090 -0.664 2.678 0.087 0.101 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 105 1.000 0.104 -0.144 3.873 0.103 0.382 MAXIMUM VALUE 106 1.000 0.109 0.218 5.995 0.116 0.591 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 025021 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 025023 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 025025 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 025027 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 025031 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 025033 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 025035 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 025037 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 025061 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 025063 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 025065 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 025067 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 025091 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 025093 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 025095 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 025097 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 025101 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 025103 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 025105 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 025107 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 025021 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.092 0.018 2.733 0.110 -0.009 2 025023 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.090 0.156 2.704 0.093 0.128 3 025025 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.087 -0.098 2.567 0.102 0.063 4 025027 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.084 -0.480 3.081 0.094 0.039 5 025031 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.081 0.229 2.079 0.084 0.196 6 025033 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.084 -0.412 3.486 0.075 0.290 7 025035 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.088 -0.181 2.860 0.093 0.116 8 025037 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.092 0.001 2.660 0.091 0.278 9 025061 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.100 -1.139 5.323 0.104 0.024 10 025063 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.102 -1.356 5.824 0.109 0.056 11 025065 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.103 -0.746 4.016 0.116 0.024 12 025067 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.105 -1.365 6.845 0.113 0.087 13 025091 1893 1995 103 0.999 0.084 -0.417 3.139 0.075 0.405 14 025093 1893 1995 103 0.999 0.078 -0.391 3.681 0.070 0.309 15 025095 1893 1995 103 0.999 0.089 -0.253 3.380 0.088 0.228 16 025097 1893 1995 103 0.999 0.089 -0.378 3.553 0.087 0.185 17 025101 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.087 -0.607 3.983 0.089 0.183 18 025103 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.090 -0.480 3.335 0.093 0.160 19 025105 1892 1995 104 1.000 0.093 -0.464 2.922 0.087 0.301 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 025107 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.095 -0.451 3.143 0.089 0.258 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 1.000 0.091 -0.441 3.566 0.093 0.166 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.000 0.007 0.444 1.179 0.013 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.089 -0.414 3.239 0.092 0.171 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.000 0.008 0.404 1.036 0.016 0.209 MINIMUM VALUE 79 0.999 0.078 -1.365 2.079 0.070 -0.009 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.085 -0.543 2.796 0.087 0.059 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 105 1.000 0.094 -0.139 3.832 0.103 0.268 MAXIMUM VALUE 106 1.000 0.105 0.229 6.845 0.116 0.405 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.522 0.158 0.011 -0.490 3.122 0.051 0.837 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.051 SERIES 025031 AND 025101 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.837 SERIES 025023 AND 025025 79 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 82.67 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 66. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.661 0.455 0.669 0.693 0.615 0.641 0.566 0.495 SDEV 0.124 0.255 0.169 0.159 0.187 0.207 0.243 0.225 SERR 0.051 0.031 0.012 0.012 0.014 0.015 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.956 0.935 0.976 0.978 0.970 0.973 0.963 0.951 NSS 11.1 17.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1995 106 1.002 0.067 -0.444 2.995 0.072 0.085 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.102 -0.037 0.097 26 80 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.82 1.03 1.08 1.91 77.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.75 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.084 -0.046 0.009 -0.038 -0.045 -0.309 -0.052 -0.127 0.067 -0.076 PACF 0.084 -0.054 0.018 -0.044 -0.037 -0.310 -0.005 -0.179 0.107 -0.172 95% C.L. 0.194 0.196 0.196 0.196 0.196 0.197 0.214 0.215 0.218 0.218 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.109 -0.004 0.000 -0.108 -0.068 -0.285 -0.099 -0.094 0.100 -0.090 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.109 2 0.111 -0.016 3 0.111 -0.016 0.002 4 0.111 -0.018 0.014 -0.109 5 0.106 -0.017 0.014 -0.104 -0.046 6 0.093 -0.046 0.017 -0.109 -0.016 -0.282 7 0.080 -0.047 0.012 -0.108 -0.018 -0.278 -0.048 8 0.074 -0.080 0.010 -0.121 -0.016 -0.283 -0.039 -0.118 9 0.088 -0.075 0.044 -0.119 -0.002 -0.285 -0.029 -0.127 0.119 10 0.112 -0.102 0.038 -0.178 -0.003 -0.309 -0.020 -0.142 0.137 -0.206 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 535.66 536.39 538.36 540.36 541.09 542.87 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 536.06 537.82 538.33 538.82 536.21 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 025021 0 0.000 2 025023 0 0.017 3 025025 0 0.004 4 025027 0 0.002 5 025031 0 0.040 6 025033 0 0.092 7 025035 0 0.014 8 025037 0 0.082 9 025061 0 0.001 10 025063 0 0.003 11 025065 0 0.001 12 025067 0 0.008 13 025091 0 0.168 14 025093 0 0.096 15 025095 0 0.053 16 025097 0 0.035 17 025101 0 0.034 18 025103 0 0.026 19 025105 0 0.093 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 025107 0 0.071 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.042 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.045 MEDIAN 0 0.030 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.073 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.004 UPPER HINGE 0 0.077 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.168 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 025021 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.092 0.018 2.733 0.110 -0.009 2 025023 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.090 0.156 2.704 0.093 0.128 3 025025 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.087 -0.098 2.567 0.102 0.063 4 025027 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.084 -0.480 3.081 0.094 0.039 5 025031 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.081 0.229 2.079 0.084 0.196 6 025033 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.084 -0.412 3.486 0.075 0.290 7 025035 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.088 -0.181 2.860 0.093 0.116 8 025037 1917 1995 79 1.000 0.092 0.001 2.660 0.091 0.278 9 025061 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.100 -1.139 5.323 0.104 0.024 10 025063 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.102 -1.356 5.824 0.109 0.056 11 025065 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.103 -0.746 4.016 0.116 0.024 12 025067 1890 1995 106 1.000 0.105 -1.365 6.845 0.113 0.087 13 025091 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.084 -0.417 3.139 0.074 0.405 14 025093 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.078 -0.391 3.681 0.070 0.309 15 025095 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.089 -0.253 3.380 0.088 0.228 16 025097 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.089 -0.378 3.553 0.087 0.185 17 025101 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.087 -0.607 3.983 0.089 0.183 18 025103 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.090 -0.480 3.335 0.093 0.160 19 025105 1892 1995 104 1.000 0.093 -0.464 2.922 0.087 0.301 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 025107 1891 1995 105 1.000 0.095 -0.451 3.143 0.089 0.258 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 1.000 0.091 -0.441 3.566 0.093 0.166 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.000 0.007 0.444 1.179 0.013 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.089 -0.414 3.239 0.092 0.171 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.000 0.008 0.404 1.036 0.016 0.209 MINIMUM VALUE 79 1.000 0.078 -1.365 2.079 0.070 -0.009 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.085 -0.543 2.796 0.087 0.059 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 105 1.000 0.094 -0.139 3.832 0.103 0.268 MAXIMUM VALUE 106 1.000 0.105 0.229 6.845 0.116 0.405 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.522 0.158 0.011 -0.490 3.122 0.051 0.837 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.051 SERIES 025031 AND 025101 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.837 SERIES 025023 AND 025025 79 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 82.67 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 66. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.661 0.455 0.669 0.693 0.615 0.641 0.566 0.495 SDEV 0.124 0.255 0.169 0.159 0.187 0.207 0.243 0.225 SERR 0.051 0.031 0.012 0.012 0.014 0.015 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.956 0.935 0.976 0.978 0.970 0.973 0.963 0.951 NSS 11.1 17.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1995 106 1.002 0.067 -0.445 2.995 0.072 0.085 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.101 -0.036 0.097 26 80 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.81 1.03 1.09 1.90 65.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.76 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.085 -0.047 0.009 -0.038 -0.045 -0.309 -0.053 -0.127 0.067 -0.076 PACF 0.085 -0.054 0.018 -0.044 -0.037 -0.310 -0.005 -0.179 0.108 -0.172 95% C.L. 0.194 0.196 0.196 0.196 0.196 0.197 0.214 0.215 0.218 0.218 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1995 106 1.002 0.067 -0.445 2.995 0.072 0.085 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.085 -0.047 0.009 -0.038 -0.045 -0.309 -0.053 -0.127 0.067 -0.076 PACF 0.085 -0.054 0.018 -0.044 -0.037 -0.310 -0.005 -0.179 0.108 -0.172 95% C.L. 0.194 0.196 0.196 0.196 0.196 0.197 0.214 0.215 0.218 0.218 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.18 MINUTES