RUN: 4DIG001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM047L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM047L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 028 1 Sirnitz SW (D), EU-Pr. WIDTH_LATE ABAL - 028 2 Germany silver fir, European fir 930 4748-745 1844 1995 - 028 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 028033 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 028021 1844 1995 152 0.594 0.405 1.405 5.664 0.294 0.781 2 028023 1844 1995 152 0.750 0.643 1.833 6.723 0.338 0.832 3 028025 1844 1995 152 0.509 0.398 1.955 7.242 0.342 0.775 4 028027 1844 1995 152 0.543 0.445 2.262 9.578 0.323 0.725 5 028031 1855 1995 141 0.536 0.387 1.284 4.145 0.406 0.749 6 028033 1857 1995 139 0.739 0.437 1.318 5.432 0.453 0.553 7 028035 1857 1995 139 0.348 0.219 1.714 7.863 0.435 0.454 8 028037 1855 1995 141 0.351 0.179 1.284 4.807 0.373 0.447 9 028051 1851 1995 145 0.721 0.575 1.555 5.013 0.358 0.749 10 028053 1851 1995 145 0.764 0.642 1.903 6.384 0.344 0.754 11 028055 1851 1995 145 0.474 0.251 1.054 3.551 0.379 0.525 12 028057 1851 1995 145 0.484 0.342 1.584 5.067 0.355 0.720 13 028071 1850 1995 146 0.738 0.706 2.778 10.630 0.319 0.804 14 028073 1852 1995 144 0.515 0.272 2.168 10.483 0.322 0.560 15 028075 1850 1995 146 0.473 0.315 1.982 6.966 0.307 0.646 16 028077 1850 1995 146 0.738 0.812 2.660 9.052 0.317 0.902 17 028091 1845 1995 151 0.647 0.412 1.874 6.327 0.300 0.766 18 028093 1845 1995 151 0.771 0.571 1.919 6.743 0.312 0.835 19 028095 1845 1995 151 0.758 0.618 2.252 7.909 0.334 0.777 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 028097 1845 1995 151 0.721 0.533 2.492 10.895 0.336 0.776 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1844 TO 1995 152 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 147 0.609 0.458 1.864 7.024 0.347 0.707 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.142 0.174 0.477 2.185 0.043 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 146 0.621 0.425 1.888 6.733 0.337 0.751 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.242 0.268 0.730 3.231 0.048 0.176 MINIMUM VALUE 136 0.348 0.179 1.054 3.551 0.294 0.447 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 144 0.497 0.328 1.480 5.250 0.318 0.603 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 151 0.738 0.596 2.210 8.481 0.365 0.779 MAXIMUM VALUE 152 0.771 0.812 2.778 10.895 0.453 0.902 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.376 0.332 0.024 -0.690 2.595 -0.407 0.850 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.407 SERIES 028035 AND 028097 139 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.850 SERIES 028071 AND 028095 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 94.81 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1869. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.774 0.503 0.397 0.259 SDEV 0.073 0.257 0.200 0.359 SERR 0.030 0.019 0.015 0.026 EPS 0.984 0.953 0.929 0.875 NSS 17.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1844 1995 152 0.562 0.306 1.410 4.979 0.265 0.775 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.924 0.756 -0.142 78 74 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.84 1.57 1.00 1.27 2.84 25.83 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.77 0.87 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 146. 6. 139. 144. 151. 152. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.770 0.784 0.695 0.746 0.655 0.662 0.566 0.585 0.536 0.540 PACF 0.770 0.470 0.039 0.281 -0.052 0.015 -0.124 0.028 0.043 0.018 95% C.L. 0.162 0.240 0.300 0.340 0.380 0.409 0.436 0.455 0.475 0.490 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.710 0.383 0.508 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 028021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00712454 0.04905194 2 028023 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 028025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00566157 0.07636372 4 028027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00600137 0.08418439 5 028031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00162438 0.42048430 6 028033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00169916 0.61045343 7 028035 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00280946 0.54479200 8 028037 1 0.29601103 0.03239845 0.00000000 0.28811467 9 028051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00866753 0.08864942 10 028053 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00762911 0.20659195 11 028055 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00264671 0.28113505 12 028057 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00462770 0.14652298 13 028071 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 028073 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00414521 0.21419483 15 028075 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00531518 0.08193670 16 028077 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 028091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00610042 0.18345430 18 028093 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00925051 0.06749139 19 028095 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00902381 0.07253510 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 028097 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00842213 0.08077881 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 028021 1844 1995 152 1.126 0.808 4.150 24.728 0.295 0.729 2 028023 1844 1995 152 1.002 0.394 0.413 2.988 0.335 0.462 3 028025 1844 1995 152 1.040 0.573 1.219 4.503 0.340 0.661 4 028027 1844 1995 152 1.062 0.634 1.994 9.946 0.323 0.640 5 028031 1855 1995 141 1.001 0.664 0.912 3.218 0.404 0.693 6 028033 1857 1995 139 0.999 0.583 1.337 5.886 0.451 0.524 7 028035 1857 1995 139 0.990 0.511 1.318 5.033 0.432 0.348 8 028037 1855 1995 141 0.999 0.480 1.709 7.615 0.370 0.428 9 028051 1851 1995 145 1.126 0.921 2.608 10.892 0.356 0.806 10 028053 1851 1995 145 1.024 0.685 1.387 4.156 0.342 0.718 11 028055 1851 1995 145 1.003 0.517 1.987 8.525 0.377 0.438 12 028057 1851 1995 145 1.044 0.668 2.058 7.995 0.353 0.678 13 028071 1850 1995 146 1.001 0.342 0.797 3.536 0.316 0.333 14 028073 1852 1995 144 1.006 0.379 1.877 7.627 0.320 0.310 15 028075 1850 1995 146 1.083 0.546 1.516 5.033 0.306 0.600 16 028077 1850 1995 146 1.014 0.382 0.839 3.628 0.315 0.460 17 028091 1845 1995 151 1.072 0.712 4.214 26.002 0.299 0.722 18 028093 1845 1995 151 1.140 0.841 5.014 38.030 0.310 0.574 19 028095 1845 1995 151 1.196 1.294 6.086 44.136 0.334 0.386 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 028097 1845 1995 151 1.191 1.071 4.521 26.392 0.335 0.678 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 147 1.056 0.650 2.298 12.493 0.346 0.559 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.066 0.243 1.606 12.343 0.043 0.153 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 146 1.032 0.609 1.793 7.621 0.335 0.587 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.103 0.264 2.111 13.480 0.047 0.253 MINIMUM VALUE 139 0.990 0.342 0.413 2.988 0.295 0.310 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 144 1.002 0.496 1.269 4.330 0.316 0.433 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 151 1.104 0.760 3.379 17.810 0.363 0.686 MAXIMUM VALUE 152 1.196 1.294 6.086 44.136 0.451 0.806 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 028021 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 028023 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 028025 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 028027 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 028031 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 028033 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 028035 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 028037 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 028051 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 028053 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 028055 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 028057 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 028071 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 028073 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 028075 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 028077 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 028091 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 028093 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 028095 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 028097 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 028021 1844 1995 152 0.988 0.387 0.924 4.455 0.293 0.507 2 028023 1844 1995 152 0.998 0.389 0.415 3.002 0.335 0.443 3 028025 1844 1995 152 0.979 0.424 0.718 3.671 0.340 0.524 4 028027 1844 1995 152 0.987 0.467 1.022 6.263 0.321 0.548 5 028031 1855 1995 141 0.965 0.588 0.935 3.782 0.402 0.635 6 028033 1857 1995 139 0.976 0.486 0.975 4.290 0.450 0.329 7 028035 1857 1995 139 0.994 0.493 1.440 5.908 0.432 0.284 8 028037 1855 1995 141 0.993 0.386 0.515 3.021 0.371 0.247 9 028051 1851 1995 145 0.974 0.464 1.197 5.272 0.357 0.554 10 028053 1851 1995 145 0.977 0.564 1.436 4.909 0.342 0.662 11 028055 1851 1995 145 0.985 0.449 1.936 7.601 0.377 0.319 12 028057 1851 1995 145 0.982 0.531 2.129 8.531 0.352 0.607 13 028071 1850 1995 146 0.998 0.330 0.758 3.501 0.317 0.283 14 028073 1852 1995 144 0.998 0.361 1.759 7.135 0.320 0.267 15 028075 1850 1995 146 0.996 0.341 0.785 3.617 0.306 0.278 16 028077 1850 1995 146 0.993 0.342 0.716 3.603 0.315 0.365 17 028091 1845 1995 151 0.997 0.368 1.145 5.666 0.298 0.436 18 028093 1845 1995 151 0.994 0.411 1.475 7.809 0.310 0.450 19 028095 1845 1995 151 0.999 0.491 1.645 7.749 0.333 0.407 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 028097 1845 1995 151 1.004 0.390 1.041 4.862 0.334 0.378 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 147 0.989 0.433 1.148 5.232 0.345 0.426 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.010 0.076 0.472 1.765 0.043 0.131 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 146 0.993 0.418 1.032 4.886 0.335 0.422 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.017 0.111 0.686 3.055 0.048 0.234 MINIMUM VALUE 139 0.965 0.330 0.415 3.002 0.293 0.247 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 144 0.981 0.377 0.772 3.644 0.316 0.302 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 151 0.997 0.488 1.458 6.699 0.364 0.536 MAXIMUM VALUE 152 1.004 0.588 2.129 8.531 0.450 0.662 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.304 0.163 0.012 0.044 2.989 -0.170 0.736 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.170 SERIES 028031 AND 028051 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.736 SERIES 028073 AND 028075 144 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 94.81 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1869. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.722 0.461 0.384 0.246 SDEV 0.134 0.193 0.206 0.218 SERR 0.055 0.014 0.015 0.016 EPS 0.979 0.945 0.926 0.867 NSS 17.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1844 1995 152 0.966 0.250 0.645 3.566 0.255 0.324 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.577 0.310 0.025 59 93 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 1.06 1.01 1.08 2.14 16.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.72 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.322 0.415 0.187 0.286 0.106 0.064 -0.106 0.021 -0.161 -0.060 PACF 0.322 0.347 -0.015 0.134 -0.050 -0.109 -0.173 0.071 -0.115 0.007 95% C.L. 0.162 0.178 0.202 0.207 0.217 0.218 0.219 0.220 0.220 0.223 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.223 0.206 0.364 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.356 0.419 0.204 0.267 0.084 0.015 -0.113 -0.003 -0.176 -0.061 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.356 2 0.237 0.334 3 0.243 0.339 -0.019 4 0.245 0.303 -0.045 0.106 5 0.254 0.299 -0.020 0.126 -0.081 6 0.243 0.317 -0.023 0.168 -0.045 -0.139 7 0.224 0.310 0.000 0.164 -0.002 -0.106 -0.138 8 0.236 0.320 0.000 0.149 -0.002 -0.135 -0.159 0.092 9 0.248 0.300 -0.016 0.149 0.017 -0.135 -0.119 0.122 -0.124 10 0.253 0.295 -0.011 0.155 0.016 -0.141 -0.118 0.108 -0.135 0.044 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1242.49 1223.88 1207.88 1209.83 1210.11 1211.11 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1210.13 1209.21 1209.91 1209.55 1211.25 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.237 0.334 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 22.43 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 128.92 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.237 0.390 0.172 0.171 0.098 0.080 0.052 0.039 0.027 0.0194 0.013 0.010 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 028021 2 0.326 0.380 0.264 2 028023 2 0.249 0.333 0.249 3 028025 2 0.308 0.414 0.211 4 028027 2 0.364 0.460 0.174 5 028031 2 0.453 0.461 0.276 6 028033 2 0.143 0.267 0.191 7 028035 2 0.107 0.259 0.130 8 028037 2 0.077 0.233 0.079 9 028051 2 0.319 0.494 0.111 10 028053 2 0.460 0.543 0.182 11 028055 2 0.111 0.288 0.098 12 028057 2 0.391 0.503 0.175 13 028071 2 0.128 0.225 0.209 14 028073 2 0.102 0.231 0.137 15 028075 2 0.145 0.202 0.272 16 028077 2 0.193 0.274 0.249 17 028091 2 0.304 0.285 0.358 18 028093 2 0.257 0.337 0.252 19 028095 2 0.274 0.285 0.333 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 028097 2 0.207 0.303 0.236 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.246 0.339 0.209 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.119 0.105 0.076 MEDIAN 2 0.253 0.296 0.210 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.187 0.174 0.103 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.077 0.202 0.079 LOWER HINGE 2 0.136 0.263 0.155 UPPER HINGE 2 0.322 0.437 0.258 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.460 0.543 0.358 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 028021 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.316 0.994 4.570 0.324 0.011 2 028023 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.337 0.483 3.340 0.371 0.012 3 028025 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.353 0.472 3.747 0.391 0.008 4 028027 1844 1995 152 1.000 0.381 1.523 9.060 0.384 -0.030 5 028031 1855 1995 141 1.003 0.428 1.084 5.305 0.446 -0.008 6 028033 1857 1995 139 1.000 0.450 0.948 4.350 0.478 0.006 7 028035 1857 1995 139 1.000 0.466 1.129 5.044 0.485 0.023 8 028037 1855 1995 141 1.000 0.372 0.556 3.141 0.410 -0.004 9 028051 1851 1995 145 1.000 0.383 0.963 4.621 0.422 -0.004 10 028053 1851 1995 145 1.000 0.415 1.518 7.237 0.423 0.007 11 028055 1851 1995 145 1.000 0.423 1.959 8.206 0.420 -0.003 12 028057 1851 1995 145 1.000 0.414 1.128 5.185 0.438 0.001 13 028071 1850 1995 146 1.000 0.309 0.360 3.049 0.359 -0.016 14 028073 1852 1995 144 1.000 0.344 1.513 6.337 0.359 -0.018 15 028075 1850 1995 146 1.000 0.315 0.598 3.762 0.334 0.003 16 028077 1850 1995 146 1.000 0.308 0.509 3.808 0.356 -0.022 17 028091 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.302 1.007 4.909 0.327 0.004 18 028093 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.355 1.952 11.704 0.347 -0.015 19 028095 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.415 2.267 12.539 0.364 -0.020 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 028097 1845 1995 151 1.000 0.344 0.902 4.590 0.379 -0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 147 1.000 0.372 1.093 5.725 0.391 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.001 0.051 0.546 2.718 0.048 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.364 1.001 4.765 0.382 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.000 0.088 0.939 3.002 0.065 0.022 MINIMUM VALUE 139 1.000 0.302 0.360 3.049 0.324 -0.030 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.326 0.577 3.785 0.357 -0.016 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.415 1.516 6.787 0.422 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 152 1.003 0.466 2.267 12.539 0.485 0.023 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.320 0.139 0.010 0.374 3.029 0.002 0.711 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.002 SERIES 028031 AND 028051 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.711 SERIES 028073 AND 028075 144 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 94.81 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1869. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.646 0.412 0.419 0.330 SDEV 0.106 0.181 0.158 0.178 SERR 0.043 0.013 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.970 0.933 0.935 0.908 NSS 17.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1844 1995 152 0.977 0.216 0.515 3.546 0.276 -0.145 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.513 0.269 0.005 60 92 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.47 1.28 1.02 1.16 2.44 8.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.60 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.144 0.086 -0.080 0.168 -0.009 0.013 -0.136 0.112 -0.144 0.071 PACF -0.144 0.066 -0.060 0.148 0.042 -0.008 -0.126 0.060 -0.121 0.021 95% C.L. 0.162 0.166 0.167 0.168 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.175 0.177 0.180 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.025 -0.145 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 -0.018 -0.041 0.156 0.028 -0.024 -0.115 0.077 -0.112 0.036 PACF 0.004 -0.018 -0.041 0.157 0.025 -0.022 -0.104 0.058 -0.130 0.042 95% C.L. 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.163 0.166 0.167 0.167 0.169 0.170 0.172 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 0.004 -0.018 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1844 1995 152 0.980 0.246 0.750 3.826 0.236 0.371 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.369 0.438 0.211 0.293 0.113 0.090 -0.056 0.047 -0.117 -0.020 PACF 0.369 0.350 -0.030 0.125 -0.062 -0.081 -0.121 0.076 -0.107 0.026 95% C.L. 0.162 0.183 0.209 0.214 0.225 0.226 0.227 0.227 0.228 0.229 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.252 0.235 0.364 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 5.50 MINUTES