RUN: 4DIG001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM048L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM048L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 029 1 Silberberg (D), EU-Pr. WIDTH_LATE PCAB - 029 2 Germany Norway spruce 1320 4750-759 1871 1995 - 029 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 029011 1873 1995 123 0.290 0.396 4.830 25.330 0.369 0.378 2 029013 1873 1995 123 0.329 0.174 1.076 3.732 0.314 0.606 3 029015 1873 1995 123 0.376 0.190 0.597 2.536 0.400 0.477 4 029017 1873 1995 123 0.259 0.164 1.357 6.424 0.321 0.680 5 029021 1872 1995 124 0.277 0.172 2.971 15.741 0.386 0.303 6 029023 1872 1995 124 0.305 0.146 1.948 9.287 0.325 0.488 7 029025 1872 1995 124 0.256 0.116 1.674 6.672 0.299 0.477 8 029027 1872 1995 124 0.225 0.119 2.185 8.264 0.297 0.592 9 029031 1887 1995 109 0.323 0.294 4.991 32.472 0.359 0.470 10 029033 1887 1995 109 0.347 0.283 2.339 10.644 0.355 0.678 11 029035 1887 1995 109 0.401 0.276 2.578 14.167 0.375 0.544 12 029037 1888 1995 108 0.301 0.201 1.372 5.629 0.351 0.584 13 029041 1879 1995 117 0.442 0.324 1.780 5.515 0.354 0.723 14 029043 1877 1995 119 0.417 0.224 2.428 10.710 0.380 0.292 15 029045 1877 1995 119 0.353 0.252 2.001 8.783 0.384 0.581 16 029047 1881 1995 115 0.344 0.236 1.783 5.532 0.399 0.677 17 029051 1871 1995 125 0.329 0.168 1.417 5.442 0.370 0.445 18 029053 1871 1995 125 0.351 0.155 0.965 4.192 0.439 0.180 19 029055 1871 1995 125 0.336 0.150 1.159 4.138 0.425 0.148 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 029057 1871 1995 125 0.343 0.204 1.588 6.386 0.382 0.506 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1871 TO 1995 125 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 0.330 0.212 2.052 9.580 0.364 0.492 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.055 0.073 1.139 7.514 0.039 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 0.333 0.196 1.781 6.548 0.370 0.497 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.057 0.105 1.019 5.198 0.047 0.187 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.225 0.116 0.597 2.536 0.297 0.148 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 0.295 0.159 1.364 5.479 0.338 0.412 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 124 0.352 0.264 2.384 10.677 0.385 0.599 MAXIMUM VALUE 125 0.442 0.396 4.991 32.472 0.439 0.723 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.493 0.158 0.011 -0.155 2.424 0.100 0.875 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.100 SERIES 029011 AND 029053 123 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.875 SERIES 029013 AND 029017 123 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1896. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 190. 190. RBAR 0.599 0.556 0.554 SDEV 0.115 0.154 0.195 SERR 0.047 0.011 0.014 EPS 0.964 0.962 0.961 NSS 17.9 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1871 1995 125 0.315 0.143 0.943 3.565 0.272 0.623 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.799 0.340 0.006 55 70 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.58 1.92 1.01 1.11 3.03 136.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.79 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 123. 8. 108. 116. 124. 125. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.618 0.542 0.534 0.527 0.505 0.529 0.375 0.391 0.391 0.367 PACF 0.618 0.259 0.217 0.167 0.107 0.159 -0.182 0.041 0.023 0.007 95% C.L. 0.179 0.238 0.274 0.306 0.334 0.357 0.382 0.393 0.405 0.417 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.495 0.353 0.130 0.163 0.183 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 029011 1 0.78792673 0.02297103 0.00000000 0.03091776 2 029013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00307916 0.51968813 3 029015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00265629 0.54103160 4 029017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00331622 0.46503666 5 029021 1 0.38346118 0.01321900 0.00000000 0.08926343 6 029023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00203632 0.43243116 7 029025 1 0.31679484 0.01765875 0.00000000 0.12845826 8 029027 1 0.29864848 0.02364925 0.00000000 0.12940003 9 029031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00482838 0.58867991 10 029033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00599602 0.67712027 11 029035 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00559679 0.70892459 12 029037 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00496990 0.57150745 13 029041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00503619 0.73901564 14 029043 1 0.50688380 0.00780134 0.00000000 0.08839410 15 029045 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00438570 0.61641932 16 029047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00347155 0.54578489 17 029051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00244664 0.48357806 18 029053 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045813 0.37958193 19 029055 1 0.26175073 0.22340184 0.00000000 0.32731482 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 029057 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00314187 0.54105806 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 029011 1873 1995 123 1.011 0.621 3.015 13.194 0.367 0.202 2 029013 1873 1995 123 0.995 0.378 0.827 3.012 0.312 0.331 3 029015 1873 1995 123 0.997 0.442 0.677 3.063 0.398 0.329 4 029017 1873 1995 123 0.998 0.391 1.012 3.600 0.318 0.360 5 029021 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.447 1.762 8.341 0.383 0.099 6 029023 1872 1995 124 0.997 0.384 2.091 11.549 0.323 0.317 7 029025 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.297 0.677 3.628 0.297 0.127 8 029027 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.343 1.198 4.144 0.296 0.224 9 029031 1887 1995 109 1.042 0.578 3.075 15.578 0.358 0.292 10 029033 1887 1995 109 1.016 0.427 1.234 5.824 0.348 0.328 11 029035 1887 1995 109 1.007 0.457 1.778 7.427 0.372 0.171 12 029037 1888 1995 108 1.025 0.364 0.817 3.869 0.346 0.198 13 029041 1879 1995 117 0.994 0.523 1.450 4.973 0.351 0.592 14 029043 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.443 1.610 6.536 0.376 0.178 15 029045 1877 1995 119 1.025 0.522 1.388 5.368 0.381 0.402 16 029047 1881 1995 115 1.018 0.556 1.170 3.898 0.395 0.537 17 029051 1871 1995 125 0.995 0.396 1.140 4.271 0.368 0.180 18 029053 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.435 0.860 3.775 0.435 0.160 19 029055 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.443 1.298 4.666 0.422 0.115 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 029057 1871 1995 125 0.993 0.442 1.453 6.127 0.379 0.253 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.006 0.444 1.427 6.142 0.361 0.270 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.013 0.081 0.671 3.511 0.038 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.442 1.266 4.819 0.367 0.239 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.016 0.102 0.750 3.160 0.048 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.993 0.297 0.677 3.012 0.296 0.099 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 0.997 0.387 0.936 3.822 0.335 0.175 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 124 1.013 0.490 1.686 6.981 0.382 0.330 MAXIMUM VALUE 125 1.042 0.621 3.075 15.578 0.435 0.592 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 029011 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 029013 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 029015 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 029017 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 029021 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 029023 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 029025 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 029027 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 029031 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 029033 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 029035 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 029037 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 029041 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 029043 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 029045 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 029047 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 029051 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 029053 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 029055 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 029057 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 029011 1873 1995 123 0.997 0.593 3.169 14.547 0.366 0.176 2 029013 1873 1995 123 0.993 0.340 0.677 2.872 0.312 0.230 3 029015 1873 1995 123 0.992 0.410 0.706 3.190 0.397 0.229 4 029017 1873 1995 123 0.991 0.352 1.227 5.115 0.318 0.256 5 029021 1872 1995 124 0.997 0.432 1.865 9.427 0.383 0.055 6 029023 1872 1995 124 0.997 0.362 1.710 8.505 0.323 0.260 7 029025 1872 1995 124 0.998 0.288 0.679 3.702 0.297 0.079 8 029027 1872 1995 124 0.997 0.322 1.198 4.444 0.296 0.162 9 029031 1887 1995 109 0.996 0.507 3.569 19.903 0.356 0.176 10 029033 1887 1995 109 0.997 0.414 1.471 6.992 0.348 0.299 11 029035 1887 1995 109 0.996 0.435 1.664 6.974 0.372 0.153 12 029037 1888 1995 108 0.997 0.326 0.780 4.284 0.347 0.043 13 029041 1879 1995 117 0.978 0.420 1.277 4.793 0.352 0.430 14 029043 1877 1995 119 0.994 0.404 1.650 7.989 0.376 0.071 15 029045 1877 1995 119 0.984 0.422 1.368 6.544 0.381 0.241 16 029047 1881 1995 115 0.976 0.397 0.699 3.347 0.394 0.303 17 029051 1871 1995 125 0.998 0.381 1.120 4.286 0.368 0.134 18 029053 1871 1995 125 0.996 0.421 0.863 3.807 0.435 0.122 19 029055 1871 1995 125 0.997 0.419 1.133 4.411 0.422 0.077 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 029057 1871 1995 125 0.997 0.416 1.090 4.695 0.379 0.213 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 0.993 0.403 1.396 6.491 0.361 0.185 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.007 0.067 0.771 4.201 0.038 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 0.996 0.412 1.213 4.744 0.367 0.176 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.005 0.064 0.835 3.445 0.047 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.976 0.288 0.677 2.872 0.296 0.043 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 0.992 0.357 0.822 4.046 0.335 0.101 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 124 0.997 0.421 1.657 7.490 0.382 0.249 MAXIMUM VALUE 125 0.998 0.593 3.569 19.903 0.435 0.430 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.374 0.149 0.011 0.188 2.689 0.046 0.760 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.046 SERIES 029027 AND 029031 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.760 SERIES 029013 AND 029015 123 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1896. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 190. 190. RBAR 0.581 0.470 0.491 SDEV 0.149 0.165 0.135 SERR 0.061 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.961 0.947 0.951 NSS 17.9 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1871 1995 125 0.969 0.264 0.750 3.581 0.254 0.186 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.615 0.228 0.033 46 79 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.43 0.98 1.00 1.10 2.08 71.84 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.74 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.184 0.114 0.068 0.100 0.007 0.125 -0.090 -0.033 -0.044 -0.055 PACF 0.184 0.083 0.034 0.077 -0.033 0.117 -0.144 -0.019 -0.025 -0.055 95% C.L. 0.179 0.185 0.187 0.188 0.190 0.190 0.192 0.194 0.194 0.194 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.041 0.186 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.076 0.062 0.024 0.061 -0.080 0.096 -0.098 0.017 -0.055 -0.043 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.076 2 0.072 0.056 3 0.071 0.055 0.015 4 0.070 0.052 0.011 0.055 5 0.075 0.053 0.016 0.061 -0.091 6 0.085 0.047 0.014 0.056 -0.099 0.104 7 0.096 0.036 0.021 0.057 -0.094 0.113 -0.110 8 0.099 0.033 0.023 0.056 -0.094 0.112 -0.113 0.025 9 0.100 0.028 0.028 0.052 -0.092 0.113 -0.111 0.030 -0.045 10 0.098 0.030 0.022 0.058 -0.097 0.116 -0.110 0.031 -0.040 -0.053 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1000.96 1002.23 1003.83 1005.81 1007.43 1008.38 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1009.03 1009.51 1011.43 1013.17 1014.82 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 029011 0 0.031 2 029013 0 0.055 3 029015 0 0.054 4 029017 0 0.066 5 029021 0 0.003 6 029023 0 0.068 7 029025 0 0.006 8 029027 0 0.026 9 029031 0 0.032 10 029033 0 0.091 11 029035 0 0.024 12 029037 0 0.002 13 029041 0 0.186 14 029043 0 0.005 15 029045 0 0.059 16 029047 0 0.094 17 029051 0 0.018 18 029053 0 0.015 19 029055 0 0.006 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 029057 0 0.045 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.044 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.044 MEDIAN 0 0.032 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.052 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.002 LOWER HINGE 0 0.011 UPPER HINGE 0 0.063 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.186 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 029011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.593 3.169 14.547 0.365 0.176 2 029013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.340 0.677 2.872 0.309 0.230 3 029015 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.410 0.706 3.190 0.393 0.229 4 029017 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.352 1.227 5.115 0.315 0.256 5 029021 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.432 1.865 9.427 0.382 0.055 6 029023 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.362 1.710 8.505 0.322 0.260 7 029025 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.288 0.679 3.702 0.296 0.079 8 029027 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.322 1.198 4.444 0.296 0.162 9 029031 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.507 3.569 19.903 0.355 0.176 10 029033 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.414 1.471 6.992 0.347 0.299 11 029035 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.435 1.664 6.974 0.371 0.153 12 029037 1888 1995 108 1.000 0.326 0.780 4.284 0.346 0.043 13 029041 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.420 1.277 4.793 0.344 0.430 14 029043 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.404 1.650 7.989 0.374 0.071 15 029045 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.422 1.368 6.544 0.374 0.241 16 029047 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.397 0.699 3.347 0.383 0.303 17 029051 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.381 1.120 4.286 0.367 0.134 18 029053 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.421 0.863 3.807 0.433 0.122 19 029055 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.419 1.133 4.411 0.420 0.077 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 029057 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.416 1.090 4.695 0.378 0.213 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.403 1.396 6.491 0.358 0.185 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.067 0.771 4.201 0.038 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.412 1.213 4.744 0.366 0.176 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.064 0.835 3.445 0.047 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.288 0.677 2.872 0.296 0.043 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.357 0.822 4.046 0.333 0.101 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 124 1.000 0.421 1.657 7.490 0.380 0.249 MAXIMUM VALUE 125 1.000 0.593 3.569 19.903 0.433 0.430 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.374 0.149 0.011 0.188 2.689 0.046 0.760 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.046 SERIES 029027 AND 029031 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.760 SERIES 029013 AND 029015 123 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1896. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 190. 190. RBAR 0.581 0.470 0.491 SDEV 0.149 0.165 0.135 SERR 0.061 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.961 0.947 0.951 NSS 17.9 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1871 1995 125 0.975 0.264 0.751 3.579 0.253 0.185 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.619 0.229 0.030 43 82 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.47 1.04 1.02 1.11 2.15 79.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.73 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.183 0.113 0.066 0.100 0.007 0.124 -0.090 -0.030 -0.044 -0.054 PACF 0.183 0.082 0.034 0.078 -0.032 0.117 -0.143 -0.016 -0.026 -0.055 95% C.L. 0.179 0.185 0.187 0.188 0.189 0.189 0.192 0.193 0.194 0.194 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.040 0.185 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1871 1995 125 0.975 0.264 0.751 3.579 0.253 0.185 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.183 0.113 0.066 0.100 0.007 0.124 -0.090 -0.030 -0.044 -0.054 PACF 0.183 0.082 0.034 0.078 -0.032 0.117 -0.143 -0.016 -0.026 -0.055 95% C.L. 0.179 0.185 0.187 0.188 0.189 0.189 0.192 0.193 0.194 0.194 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.040 0.185 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.12 MINUTES