RUN: 4DIG001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM048N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM048N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 029 1 Silberberg (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 029 2 Germany Norway spruce 1320 4750-759 1871 1995 - 029 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 029011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1966 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 029015 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1966 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 029017 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1989 1993 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 029035 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1991 1995 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 029053 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1991 1995 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 029057 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1964 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 029011 1873 1995 123 0.230 0.048 1.114 4.893 0.102 0.615 2 029013 1873 1995 123 0.205 0.030 0.507 4.243 0.072 0.748 3 029015 1873 1995 123 0.255 0.031 0.419 3.738 0.061 0.741 4 029017 1873 1995 123 0.244 0.025 1.430 7.916 0.066 0.528 5 029021 1872 1995 124 0.283 0.032 2.215 12.574 0.078 0.405 6 029023 1872 1995 124 0.253 0.024 0.190 2.461 0.071 0.510 7 029025 1872 1995 124 0.234 0.026 0.173 2.879 0.089 0.482 8 029027 1872 1995 124 0.231 0.023 0.452 3.337 0.089 0.383 9 029031 1887 1995 109 0.244 0.063 4.341 23.279 0.088 0.662 10 029033 1887 1995 109 0.254 0.060 2.373 10.248 0.091 0.687 11 029035 1887 1995 109 0.240 0.053 3.269 16.405 0.082 0.748 12 029037 1888 1995 108 0.221 0.028 3.125 19.222 0.081 0.481 13 029041 1879 1995 117 0.242 0.036 2.420 10.689 0.070 0.674 14 029043 1877 1995 119 0.246 0.048 2.781 12.380 0.079 0.736 15 029045 1877 1995 119 0.221 0.045 2.693 13.193 0.089 0.734 16 029047 1881 1995 115 0.229 0.026 0.147 3.314 0.086 0.522 17 029051 1871 1995 125 0.203 0.023 0.647 7.434 0.074 0.514 18 029053 1871 1995 125 0.191 0.036 0.512 2.883 0.091 0.765 19 029055 1871 1995 125 0.200 0.025 1.184 5.198 0.091 0.454 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 029057 1871 1995 125 0.198 0.020 0.807 5.431 0.085 0.355 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1871 TO 1995 125 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 0.231 0.035 1.540 8.586 0.082 0.587 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.023 0.013 1.256 6.009 0.010 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 0.233 0.031 1.149 6.432 0.083 0.572 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.033 0.022 2.077 8.940 0.016 0.254 MINIMUM VALUE 104 0.191 0.020 0.147 2.461 0.061 0.355 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 0.213 0.025 0.479 3.538 0.073 0.481 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 124 0.245 0.046 2.556 12.477 0.089 0.735 MAXIMUM VALUE 125 0.283 0.063 4.341 23.279 0.102 0.765 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.331 0.228 0.017 -0.087 2.506 -0.244 0.823 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.244 SERIES 029015 AND 029053 123 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.823 SERIES 029031 AND 029033 109 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1896. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 190. 190. RBAR 0.650 0.266 0.339 SDEV 0.067 0.247 0.199 SERR 0.027 0.018 0.014 EPS 0.971 0.879 0.911 NSS 17.9 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1871 1995 125 0.230 0.019 0.861 4.528 0.052 0.639 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.430 0.224 -0.017 39 86 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.49 1.00 1.08 1.57 7.60 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.79 0.88 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 123. 8. 108. 116. 124. 125. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.634 0.606 0.433 0.444 0.413 0.401 0.394 0.345 0.351 0.380 PACF 0.634 0.341 -0.067 0.136 0.128 0.035 0.075 -0.013 0.055 0.149 95% C.L. 0.179 0.240 0.285 0.305 0.325 0.342 0.356 0.370 0.380 0.390 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.526 0.395 0.401 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 029011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038372 0.20663111 2 029013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028679 0.18685326 3 029015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029036 0.23704885 4 029017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017130 0.23446451 5 029021 1 0.09270389 0.10175020 0.00000000 0.27608454 6 029023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019308 0.24059401 7 029025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009602 0.22843431 8 029027 1 0.03177762 0.01422238 0.00000000 0.21598315 9 029031 1 0.40460196 0.20465322 0.00000000 0.22778350 10 029033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006533 0.25044343 11 029035 1 0.32981119 0.19655743 0.00000000 0.22598873 12 029037 1 0.25472271 0.40433598 0.00000000 0.21628542 13 029041 1 0.17568700 0.13683456 0.00000000 0.23155481 14 029043 1 0.25983992 0.11780578 0.00000000 0.22900610 15 029045 1 0.24112938 0.13074280 0.00000000 0.20624915 16 029047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009335 0.22354233 17 029051 1 0.07358705 0.12291847 0.00000000 0.19829904 18 029053 1 0.11617128 0.01877360 0.00000000 0.14673798 19 029055 1 0.10305645 0.12371916 0.00000000 0.19349989 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 029057 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005075 0.19529684 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 029011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.206 2.226 9.896 0.100 0.554 2 029013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.144 1.622 8.780 0.072 0.701 3 029015 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.117 1.395 7.367 0.059 0.675 4 029017 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.099 2.125 12.179 0.067 0.468 5 029021 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.095 1.678 12.230 0.077 0.273 6 029023 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.090 0.416 3.053 0.071 0.451 7 029025 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.110 0.236 3.126 0.088 0.465 8 029027 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.095 0.273 2.801 0.088 0.323 9 029031 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.119 1.644 11.157 0.087 0.314 10 029033 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.239 2.526 10.954 0.091 0.678 11 029035 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.108 -0.283 3.529 0.080 0.515 12 029037 1888 1995 108 1.000 0.082 -0.138 2.970 0.077 0.307 13 029041 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.096 0.785 4.561 0.070 0.378 14 029043 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.085 0.190 3.513 0.077 0.312 15 029045 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.108 0.042 3.670 0.087 0.467 16 029047 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.113 0.384 3.741 0.085 0.511 17 029051 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.095 -0.634 4.789 0.073 0.441 18 029053 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.111 -0.252 3.201 0.090 0.442 19 029055 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.095 0.626 4.805 0.090 0.150 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 029057 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.102 1.009 6.234 0.084 0.333 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.115 0.794 6.128 0.081 0.438 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.040 0.930 3.438 0.010 0.144 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.105 0.521 4.675 0.082 0.446 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.020 1.517 5.980 0.016 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.082 -0.634 2.801 0.059 0.150 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.095 0.116 3.357 0.073 0.318 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 124 1.000 0.115 1.633 9.338 0.088 0.513 MAXIMUM VALUE 125 1.000 0.239 2.526 12.230 0.100 0.701 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 029011 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 029013 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 029015 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 029017 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 029021 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 029023 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 029025 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 029027 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 029031 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 029033 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 029035 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 029037 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 029041 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 029043 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 029045 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 029047 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 029051 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 029053 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 029055 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 029057 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 029011 1873 1995 123 0.997 0.124 2.172 11.603 0.100 0.115 2 029013 1873 1995 123 0.998 0.090 0.382 3.987 0.072 0.440 3 029015 1873 1995 123 0.998 0.079 0.801 4.314 0.059 0.438 4 029017 1873 1995 123 0.999 0.078 1.158 6.317 0.067 0.302 5 029021 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.092 1.954 14.065 0.077 0.214 6 029023 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.075 0.195 2.540 0.071 0.252 7 029025 1872 1995 124 0.999 0.096 0.042 2.865 0.089 0.319 8 029027 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.093 0.256 2.851 0.088 0.287 9 029031 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.105 2.802 19.302 0.087 0.108 10 029033 1887 1995 109 0.996 0.145 1.579 8.560 0.091 0.450 11 029035 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.095 -0.218 3.745 0.080 0.356 12 029037 1888 1995 108 1.000 0.079 -0.109 3.158 0.077 0.246 13 029041 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.083 1.278 6.858 0.071 0.170 14 029043 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.080 0.404 3.765 0.077 0.220 15 029045 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.098 0.172 3.734 0.087 0.342 16 029047 1881 1995 115 0.999 0.091 0.291 3.830 0.085 0.295 17 029051 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.094 -0.545 4.711 0.073 0.425 18 029053 1871 1995 125 0.999 0.097 -0.148 3.892 0.090 0.251 19 029055 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.086 0.841 5.429 0.090 -0.043 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 029057 1871 1995 125 0.999 0.086 0.633 3.818 0.084 0.141 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 0.999 0.093 0.697 5.967 0.081 0.266 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.001 0.017 0.882 4.344 0.010 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.091 0.393 3.939 0.082 0.270 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.001 0.014 1.111 2.848 0.016 0.157 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.996 0.075 -0.545 2.540 0.059 -0.043 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 0.999 0.082 0.107 3.740 0.073 0.192 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 124 1.000 0.096 1.218 6.587 0.088 0.349 MAXIMUM VALUE 125 1.000 0.145 2.802 19.302 0.100 0.450 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.284 0.135 0.010 0.219 3.378 -0.045 0.711 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.045 SERIES 029035 AND 029047 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.711 SERIES 029013 AND 029017 123 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1896. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 190. 190. RBAR 0.348 0.308 0.347 SDEV 0.203 0.172 0.153 SERR 0.083 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.905 0.899 0.914 NSS 17.9 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1871 1995 125 0.999 0.052 0.519 3.723 0.051 0.185 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.142 0.057 0.016 45 80 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.36 1.01 1.06 1.43 11.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.78 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.183 0.200 -0.101 -0.075 -0.097 -0.162 0.015 -0.086 -0.032 0.110 PACF 0.183 0.173 -0.173 -0.071 -0.020 -0.142 0.078 -0.068 -0.082 0.175 95% C.L. 0.179 0.185 0.192 0.193 0.194 0.196 0.200 0.200 0.201 0.201 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.100 0.185 0.211 -0.167 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.108 0.120 -0.166 -0.062 -0.119 -0.139 0.027 -0.088 -0.059 0.122 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.108 2 0.096 0.109 3 0.117 0.128 -0.194 4 0.110 0.133 -0.189 -0.039 5 0.107 0.120 -0.180 -0.032 -0.067 6 0.097 0.115 -0.207 -0.014 -0.051 -0.148 7 0.107 0.119 -0.206 0.000 -0.059 -0.154 0.067 8 0.114 0.102 -0.212 0.000 -0.081 -0.142 0.079 -0.107 9 0.101 0.112 -0.229 -0.010 -0.081 -0.167 0.091 -0.093 -0.119 10 0.123 0.129 -0.246 0.020 -0.066 -0.165 0.133 -0.114 -0.138 0.182 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 604.49 605.03 605.53 602.74 604.54 605.98 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 605.22 606.65 607.22 607.42 605.20 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.117 0.128 -0.194 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.01 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.40 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.117 0.142 -0.162 -0.024 -0.051 0.022 0.001 0.013 -0.003 0.0012 -0.003 0.000 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 029011 3 0.061 0.117 -0.121 -0.112 2 029013 3 0.306 0.346 0.267 -0.011 3 029015 3 0.231 0.381 0.159 0.006 4 029017 3 0.175 0.254 0.239 0.000 5 029021 3 0.060 0.211 0.063 -0.110 6 029023 3 0.076 0.235 0.099 -0.026 7 029025 3 0.177 0.270 0.235 -0.070 8 029027 3 0.133 0.281 0.169 -0.181 9 029031 3 0.058 0.115 0.090 -0.202 10 029033 3 0.266 0.440 0.176 -0.234 11 029035 3 0.160 0.380 -0.047 -0.064 12 029037 3 0.083 0.245 0.076 -0.143 13 029041 3 0.038 0.172 0.016 -0.094 14 029043 3 0.085 0.210 0.147 -0.120 15 029045 3 0.130 0.304 0.110 0.009 16 029047 3 0.126 0.258 0.201 -0.067 17 029051 3 0.206 0.355 0.101 0.099 18 029053 3 0.114 0.215 0.056 0.173 19 029055 3 0.015 -0.035 0.060 -0.074 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 029057 3 0.084 0.115 0.228 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.129 0.243 0.116 -0.061 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.078 0.112 0.099 0.098 MEDIAN 3 0.120 0.249 0.106 -0.069 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.108 0.134 0.127 0.116 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.015 -0.035 -0.121 -0.234 LOWER HINGE 3 0.069 0.191 0.061 -0.116 UPPER HINGE 3 0.176 0.325 0.188 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.306 0.440 0.267 0.173 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 029011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.121 2.130 11.416 0.105 0.013 2 029013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.075 0.547 3.746 0.084 -0.032 3 029015 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.069 0.852 4.931 0.072 -0.018 4 029017 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.071 0.812 5.201 0.078 -0.034 5 029021 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.089 2.044 13.944 0.086 0.003 6 029023 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.072 0.246 2.662 0.081 -0.003 7 029025 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.088 0.215 3.008 0.096 0.006 8 029027 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.086 0.101 3.144 0.099 0.003 9 029031 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.102 3.008 20.738 0.087 -0.002 10 029033 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.124 1.393 8.626 0.113 0.013 11 029035 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.088 -0.279 4.134 0.095 0.011 12 029037 1888 1995 108 1.000 0.075 -0.106 3.105 0.085 0.007 13 029041 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.082 1.269 7.089 0.077 0.001 14 029043 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.077 0.489 3.889 0.084 0.012 15 029045 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.091 0.506 4.844 0.096 0.001 16 029047 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.085 0.424 4.771 0.092 -0.006 17 029051 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.083 -0.626 5.452 0.085 -0.001 18 029053 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.091 -0.160 4.767 0.099 0.014 19 029055 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.086 0.695 4.989 0.089 0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 029057 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.082 0.509 3.663 0.091 -0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.087 0.703 6.206 0.090 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.015 0.893 4.469 0.010 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.085 0.507 4.807 0.088 0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.014 0.902 2.566 0.012 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.069 -0.626 2.662 0.072 -0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.076 0.158 3.704 0.084 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 124 1.000 0.090 1.060 6.270 0.096 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 125 1.000 0.124 3.008 20.738 0.113 0.014 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.302 0.121 0.009 0.392 3.393 0.031 0.708 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.031 SERIES 029025 AND 029035 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.708 SERIES 029023 AND 029025 124 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1896. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 190. 190. RBAR 0.386 0.365 0.382 SDEV 0.191 0.128 0.137 SERR 0.078 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.918 0.920 0.925 NSS 17.9 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1871 1995 125 0.999 0.049 0.520 4.327 0.056 -0.100 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.127 0.053 0.014 45 80 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.55 1.01 1.08 1.63 8.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.73 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.099 0.070 -0.097 -0.028 -0.039 -0.171 0.103 -0.099 -0.077 0.083 PACF -0.099 0.061 -0.086 -0.050 -0.035 -0.186 0.070 -0.077 -0.149 0.083 95% C.L. 0.179 0.181 0.182 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.189 0.190 0.192 0.193 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 0.000 -0.015 -0.036 -0.059 -0.183 0.095 -0.092 -0.095 0.089 PACF -0.002 0.000 -0.015 -0.036 -0.059 -0.185 0.093 -0.100 -0.109 0.079 95% C.L. 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.180 0.186 0.187 0.189 0.190 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.002 -0.002 0.000 -0.016 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1871 1995 125 0.999 0.051 0.465 3.680 0.051 0.122 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.121 0.120 -0.159 -0.095 -0.107 -0.154 0.032 -0.095 -0.062 0.085 PACF 0.121 0.107 -0.190 -0.071 -0.047 -0.155 0.062 -0.108 -0.127 0.136 95% C.L. 0.179 0.181 0.184 0.188 0.190 0.192 0.196 0.196 0.197 0.198 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES