RUN: 4DIG001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM048X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM048X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 029 1 Silberberg (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCAB - 029 2 Germany Norway spruce 1320 4750-759 1871 1995 - 029 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 029011 1873 1995 123 0.808 0.091 -1.171 5.216 0.124 0.047 2 029013 1873 1995 123 0.777 0.084 -0.590 4.105 0.110 0.064 3 029015 1873 1995 123 0.824 0.087 -0.782 3.999 0.103 0.205 4 029017 1873 1995 123 0.809 0.083 -1.358 6.063 0.109 -0.001 5 029021 1872 1995 124 0.848 0.092 -0.626 4.013 0.110 0.139 6 029023 1872 1995 124 0.833 0.086 -0.796 5.038 0.120 -0.074 7 029025 1872 1995 124 0.855 0.084 -1.023 6.209 0.104 -0.063 8 029027 1872 1995 124 0.793 0.091 -0.825 4.334 0.125 0.003 9 029031 1887 1995 109 0.763 0.104 -0.558 3.073 0.124 0.327 10 029033 1887 1995 109 0.780 0.086 -0.383 3.316 0.112 0.145 11 029035 1887 1995 109 0.795 0.083 -0.452 3.441 0.115 -0.018 12 029037 1888 1995 108 0.765 0.079 -0.515 3.389 0.117 -0.025 13 029041 1879 1995 117 0.758 0.107 -0.657 3.863 0.162 -0.065 14 029043 1877 1995 119 0.774 0.094 -0.319 2.727 0.146 -0.066 15 029045 1877 1995 119 0.767 0.100 -0.655 3.432 0.150 -0.008 16 029047 1881 1995 115 0.781 0.102 -0.273 2.509 0.133 0.125 17 029051 1871 1995 125 0.677 0.107 -0.637 3.367 0.192 -0.140 18 029053 1871 1995 125 0.684 0.107 -0.401 3.304 0.179 -0.013 19 029055 1871 1995 125 0.719 0.101 -0.529 3.327 0.169 -0.130 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 029057 1871 1995 125 0.705 0.107 -0.297 3.007 0.181 -0.088 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1871 TO 1995 125 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 0.776 0.094 -0.642 3.887 0.134 0.018 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.050 0.010 0.288 1.028 0.028 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 0.779 0.092 -0.608 3.437 0.124 -0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.048 0.018 0.363 0.909 0.045 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.677 0.079 -1.358 2.509 0.103 -0.140 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 0.760 0.085 -0.789 3.310 0.111 -0.065 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 124 0.808 0.103 -0.426 4.219 0.156 0.095 MAXIMUM VALUE 125 0.855 0.107 -0.273 6.209 0.192 0.327 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.683 0.099 0.007 -0.644 3.536 0.392 0.889 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.392 SERIES 029033 AND 029053 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.889 SERIES 029041 AND 029045 117 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1896. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 190. 190. RBAR 0.809 0.804 0.742 SDEV 0.057 0.071 0.083 SERR 0.023 0.005 0.006 EPS 0.987 0.988 0.983 NSS 17.9 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1871 1995 125 0.778 0.079 -0.944 4.618 0.116 -0.111 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.287 -0.071 0.128 32 93 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.22 1.00 1.05 1.26 2.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.70 0.88 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 123. 8. 108. 116. 124. 125. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.111 0.201 0.059 0.114 0.054 0.089 0.101 0.017 0.065 0.079 PACF -0.111 0.191 0.103 0.098 0.048 0.058 0.089 -0.006 0.012 0.060 95% C.L. 0.179 0.181 0.188 0.189 0.191 0.191 0.193 0.194 0.194 0.195 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.059 -0.090 0.193 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 029011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025370 0.79223776 2 029013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035315 0.75477141 3 029015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060640 0.78630549 4 029017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016052 0.79874718 5 029021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00098555 0.78614479 6 029023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00024164 0.81812352 7 029025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00082061 0.80411488 8 029027 1 0.04643525 0.03002442 0.00000000 0.78099459 9 029031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089704 0.81190622 10 029033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00072468 0.74060142 11 029035 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031869 0.77724260 12 029037 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027933 0.78003806 13 029041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048255 0.72964931 14 029043 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025538 0.75862700 15 029045 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045456 0.73961687 16 029047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00117139 0.71301603 17 029051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042581 0.70426583 18 029053 1 0.20660813 0.00920621 0.00000000 0.56143028 19 029055 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049745 0.68762064 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 029057 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00077505 0.65637159 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 029011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.112 -1.154 5.184 0.123 0.037 2 029013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.107 -0.601 4.134 0.109 0.039 3 029015 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.103 -0.872 4.071 0.102 0.146 4 029017 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.102 -1.353 6.017 0.109 -0.009 5 029021 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.101 -0.795 4.619 0.110 -0.010 6 029023 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.103 -0.833 5.029 0.119 -0.086 7 029025 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.092 -1.299 7.437 0.103 -0.208 8 029027 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.114 -0.797 4.355 0.124 -0.014 9 029031 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.132 -0.402 3.075 0.123 0.298 10 029033 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.106 -0.473 3.351 0.111 0.066 11 029035 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.104 -0.445 3.307 0.114 -0.040 12 029037 1888 1995 108 1.000 0.102 -0.521 3.454 0.116 -0.034 13 029041 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.140 -0.650 3.886 0.160 -0.089 14 029043 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.120 -0.383 2.735 0.145 -0.076 15 029045 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.129 -0.704 3.354 0.149 -0.030 16 029047 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.120 -0.533 2.769 0.132 -0.030 17 029051 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.156 -0.649 3.506 0.191 -0.157 18 029053 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.145 -0.625 3.577 0.178 -0.181 19 029055 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.137 -0.650 3.382 0.168 -0.168 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 029057 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.146 -0.380 3.049 0.179 -0.175 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.119 -0.706 4.015 0.133 -0.036 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.019 0.285 1.174 0.028 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.113 -0.649 3.542 0.123 -0.032 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.032 0.318 1.158 0.045 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.092 -1.353 2.735 0.102 -0.208 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.103 -0.815 3.329 0.110 -0.123 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 124 1.000 0.134 -0.497 4.487 0.155 0.014 MAXIMUM VALUE 125 1.000 0.156 -0.380 7.437 0.191 0.298 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 029011 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 029013 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 029015 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 029017 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 029021 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 029023 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 029025 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 029027 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 029031 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 029033 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 029035 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 029037 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 029041 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 029043 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 029045 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 029047 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 029051 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 029053 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 029055 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 029057 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 029011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.108 -1.062 4.919 0.123 -0.082 2 029013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.101 -0.627 4.158 0.109 -0.097 3 029015 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.096 -0.772 4.050 0.102 -0.015 4 029017 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.098 -1.354 6.008 0.109 -0.120 5 029021 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.097 -0.862 4.738 0.110 -0.088 6 029023 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.098 -0.982 5.381 0.119 -0.186 7 029025 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.092 -1.252 7.466 0.103 -0.231 8 029027 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.111 -0.753 4.552 0.124 -0.076 9 029031 1887 1995 109 0.999 0.104 -0.709 3.696 0.123 -0.130 10 029033 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.098 -0.413 3.229 0.111 -0.126 11 029035 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.095 -0.365 3.321 0.114 -0.255 12 029037 1888 1995 108 1.000 0.096 -0.719 3.372 0.116 -0.171 13 029041 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.136 -0.489 3.999 0.160 -0.176 14 029043 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.119 -0.412 2.703 0.145 -0.095 15 029045 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.125 -0.584 3.180 0.149 -0.113 16 029047 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.115 -0.499 2.910 0.132 -0.139 17 029051 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.155 -0.667 3.484 0.191 -0.178 18 029053 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.143 -0.657 3.591 0.178 -0.228 19 029055 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.135 -0.558 3.292 0.168 -0.222 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 029057 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.143 -0.375 3.060 0.179 -0.243 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.113 -0.705 4.055 0.133 -0.149 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.019 0.280 1.181 0.028 0.066 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.106 -0.662 3.644 0.123 -0.135 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.033 0.323 1.385 0.045 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.999 0.092 -1.354 2.703 0.102 -0.255 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.098 -0.817 3.261 0.110 -0.204 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 124 1.000 0.130 -0.494 4.645 0.155 -0.096 MAXIMUM VALUE 125 1.000 0.155 -0.365 7.466 0.191 -0.015 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.740 0.063 0.005 0.315 3.170 0.576 0.887 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.576 SERIES 029027 AND 029035 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.887 SERIES 029051 AND 029057 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1896. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 190. 190. RBAR 0.830 0.812 0.756 SDEV 0.047 0.061 0.079 SERR 0.019 0.004 0.006 EPS 0.989 0.989 0.984 NSS 17.9 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.098 -0.946 4.554 0.117 -0.231 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.207 -0.032 0.092 29 96 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.30 1.00 1.04 1.34 2.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.74 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.229 0.117 -0.015 0.023 -0.060 0.016 0.035 -0.043 0.005 0.027 PACF -0.229 0.068 0.027 0.018 -0.056 -0.013 0.049 -0.026 -0.018 0.028 95% C.L. 0.179 0.188 0.190 0.190 0.190 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.192 0.192 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.058 -0.232 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.247 0.136 -0.034 0.019 -0.050 0.009 0.045 -0.052 -0.002 0.043 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.247 2 -0.228 0.080 3 -0.229 0.084 0.018 4 -0.229 0.084 0.019 0.004 5 -0.229 0.085 0.023 -0.007 -0.048 6 -0.230 0.085 0.024 -0.006 -0.051 -0.015 7 -0.229 0.088 0.024 -0.007 -0.056 -0.002 0.058 8 -0.227 0.088 0.022 -0.007 -0.055 0.001 0.051 -0.031 9 -0.228 0.089 0.022 -0.009 -0.056 0.002 0.054 -0.039 -0.034 10 -0.226 0.091 0.020 -0.009 -0.053 0.002 0.053 -0.043 -0.024 0.046 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 767.46 761.57 762.77 764.72 766.72 768.44 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 770.41 771.98 773.86 775.71 777.45 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.247 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.12 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.52 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.247 0.061 -0.015 0.004 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 029011 1 0.018 -0.082 2 029013 1 0.038 -0.097 3 029015 1 0.083 -0.015 4 029017 1 0.030 -0.121 5 029021 1 0.008 -0.089 6 029023 1 0.035 -0.188 7 029025 1 0.055 -0.233 8 029027 1 0.026 -0.077 9 029031 1 0.048 -0.132 10 029033 1 0.038 -0.126 11 029035 1 0.097 -0.256 12 029037 1 0.046 -0.172 13 029041 1 0.042 -0.176 14 029043 1 0.018 -0.097 15 029045 1 0.025 -0.113 16 029047 1 0.049 -0.140 17 029051 1 0.033 -0.180 18 029053 1 0.056 -0.228 19 029055 1 0.052 -0.223 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 029057 1 0.060 -0.245 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.043 -0.149 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.021 0.066 MEDIAN 1 0.040 -0.136 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.025 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.008 -0.256 LOWER HINGE 1 0.028 -0.205 UPPER HINGE 1 0.053 -0.097 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.097 -0.015 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 029011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.107 -1.029 4.838 0.117 0.009 2 029013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.101 -0.569 3.894 0.104 0.016 3 029015 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.096 -0.767 4.017 0.101 0.004 4 029017 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.097 -1.289 5.595 0.102 0.015 5 029021 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.097 -0.801 4.316 0.104 -0.002 6 029023 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.096 -0.861 4.794 0.108 0.000 7 029025 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.089 -0.936 5.747 0.091 0.005 8 029027 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.111 -0.684 4.186 0.119 0.010 9 029031 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.103 -0.644 3.590 0.112 0.024 10 029033 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.097 -0.410 3.090 0.102 0.019 11 029035 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.092 -0.217 2.890 0.097 0.046 12 029037 1888 1995 108 1.000 0.095 -0.621 3.226 0.103 0.022 13 029041 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.134 -0.311 3.577 0.142 0.018 14 029043 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.119 -0.330 2.641 0.136 0.007 15 029045 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.124 -0.555 3.124 0.140 0.012 16 029047 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.114 -0.459 2.712 0.120 0.023 17 029051 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.152 -0.662 3.277 0.172 0.005 18 029053 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.139 -0.607 3.458 0.155 0.015 19 029055 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.132 -0.556 3.306 0.149 0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 029057 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.138 -0.360 2.675 0.156 0.004 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.112 -0.633 3.748 0.121 0.013 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.019 0.264 0.921 0.024 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.105 -0.614 3.518 0.115 0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.031 0.349 1.144 0.039 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.089 -1.289 2.641 0.091 -0.002 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.097 -0.784 3.107 0.102 0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 124 1.000 0.128 -0.435 4.251 0.141 0.019 MAXIMUM VALUE 125 1.000 0.152 -0.217 5.747 0.172 0.046 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.718 0.070 0.005 0.063 3.439 0.496 0.877 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.496 SERIES 029025 AND 029035 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.877 SERIES 029045 AND 029047 115 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 93.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1896. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 190. 190. RBAR 0.790 0.795 0.743 SDEV 0.058 0.068 0.083 SERR 0.024 0.005 0.006 EPS 0.985 0.987 0.983 NSS 17.9 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1871 1995 125 1.001 0.096 -0.875 4.233 0.106 -0.077 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.240 -0.038 0.100 30 95 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.29 1.00 1.03 1.32 2.02 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.58 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.076 0.090 -0.003 0.016 -0.056 0.013 0.025 -0.040 0.000 0.035 PACF -0.076 0.085 0.010 0.009 -0.056 0.003 0.037 -0.037 -0.011 0.038 95% C.L. 0.179 0.180 0.181 0.181 0.181 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.182 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 0.085 0.005 0.012 -0.054 0.011 0.024 -0.039 -0.001 0.035 PACF 0.007 0.085 0.004 0.005 -0.055 0.011 0.033 -0.041 -0.004 0.038 95% C.L. 0.179 0.179 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.181 0.181 0.181 0.181 0.181 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.007 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1871 1995 125 1.001 0.099 -0.948 4.667 0.119 -0.261 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.259 0.143 -0.037 0.032 -0.061 0.016 0.026 -0.040 0.001 0.033 PACF -0.259 0.081 0.020 0.017 -0.053 -0.015 0.041 -0.026 -0.023 0.035 95% C.L. 0.179 0.191 0.194 0.194 0.194 0.195 0.195 0.195 0.195 0.195 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.075 -0.262 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES