RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM050I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM050I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 043 1 Villingen-S. (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_EARLY PCAB - 043 2 Germany Norway spruce 880 4802-821 1897 1994 - 043 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 3.213 0.266 1.221 5.653 0.059 0.465 2 043002 1909 1994 86 3.042 0.299 2.009 8.381 0.072 0.408 3 043003 1899 1994 96 3.123 0.325 2.241 9.327 0.061 0.519 4 043004 1901 1994 94 3.291 0.231 0.721 4.407 0.054 0.389 5 043005 1897 1992 96 3.153 0.262 1.342 7.753 0.060 0.439 6 043006 1902 1992 91 3.316 0.279 1.305 5.081 0.058 0.512 7 043007 1900 1992 93 3.321 0.248 1.128 5.647 0.057 0.457 8 043008 1903 1992 90 3.422 0.220 -0.283 2.587 0.052 0.485 9 043009 1903 1992 90 3.285 0.457 2.819 11.679 0.067 0.679 10 043010 1911 1992 82 3.314 0.305 1.669 8.052 0.062 0.576 11 043011 1900 1992 93 3.325 0.509 1.897 6.068 0.065 0.787 12 043012 1906 1992 87 3.424 0.251 2.070 9.387 0.043 0.560 13 043013 1899 1992 94 3.318 0.275 1.196 6.192 0.072 0.287 14 043014 1903 1992 90 3.581 0.313 0.596 3.623 0.060 0.473 15 043015 1899 1992 94 3.442 0.286 0.611 4.200 0.057 0.543 16 043016 1906 1992 87 3.432 0.384 0.574 4.199 0.083 0.452 17 043017 1899 1994 96 3.463 0.346 0.262 4.953 0.074 0.471 18 043018 1900 1994 95 3.549 0.282 1.267 6.415 0.060 0.498 19 043019 1899 1994 96 3.490 0.282 -0.050 3.467 0.058 0.598 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 3.281 0.268 0.385 4.779 0.070 0.373 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1897 TO 1994 98 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 3.339 0.304 1.149 6.093 0.062 0.499 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.140 0.072 0.809 2.342 0.009 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 3.319 0.282 1.208 5.650 0.060 0.479 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.154 0.055 1.198 3.599 0.011 0.106 MINIMUM VALUE 82 3.042 0.220 -0.283 2.587 0.043 0.287 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 3.283 0.264 0.585 4.303 0.057 0.445 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 3.437 0.319 1.783 7.903 0.068 0.552 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 3.581 0.509 2.819 11.679 0.083 0.787 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.298 0.255 0.018 -0.147 2.473 -0.333 0.806 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.333 SERIES 043009 AND 043017 90 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.806 SERIES 043001 AND 043002 86 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 171. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.528 0.553 0.524 0.310 0.339 0.449 0.387 SDEV 0.221 0.222 0.277 0.322 0.221 0.206 0.207 SERR 0.017 0.016 0.020 0.023 0.016 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.957 0.961 0.956 0.900 0.911 0.942 0.927 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 3.356 0.229 1.907 8.133 0.051 0.431 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.227 0.107 -0.086 33 65 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.41 1.00 1.08 1.49 3.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.00 0.87 0.93 0.99 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 94. 4. 82. 90. 94. 96. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.427 0.342 0.227 0.138 0.107 -0.008 -0.106 -0.107 -0.072 -0.025 PACF 0.427 0.196 0.033 -0.020 0.016 -0.097 -0.132 -0.022 0.047 0.061 95% C.L. 0.202 0.236 0.255 0.263 0.266 0.268 0.268 0.270 0.272 0.272 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.282 0.369 0.235 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 043001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00187841 3.12332869 2 043002 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00264550 2.92712998 3 043003 1 1.99869525 0.25934276 0.00000000 3.05228615 4 043004 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013806 3.28461218 5 043005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037710 3.13504386 6 043006 1 0.55460358 0.00396730 0.00000000 2.85157108 7 043007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00237728 3.43248487 8 043008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00465350 3.20993257 9 043009 1 2.80478859 0.21180424 0.00000000 3.15334034 10 043010 1 0.87505352 0.27478126 0.00000000 3.28064609 11 043011 1 2.10151863 0.09615494 0.00000000 3.10119939 12 043012 1 1.08115244 0.14932103 0.00000000 3.34697390 13 043013 1 2.20310259 0.61301768 0.00000000 3.29038119 14 043014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00558472 3.32656169 15 043015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00294903 3.30215502 16 043016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00617755 3.16014171 17 043017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00510499 3.21511626 18 043018 1 0.90854710 0.11104059 0.00000000 3.46793723 19 043019 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089955 3.53394079 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 043020 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023235 3.26981473 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.082 1.469 5.806 0.059 0.447 2 043002 1909 1994 86 1.000 0.095 1.776 7.578 0.071 0.393 3 043003 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.071 1.083 5.343 0.061 0.270 4 043004 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.070 0.713 4.392 0.053 0.385 5 043005 1897 1992 96 1.000 0.083 1.444 8.160 0.059 0.430 6 043006 1902 1992 91 1.000 0.082 1.099 4.251 0.057 0.502 7 043007 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.072 0.878 4.561 0.056 0.437 8 043008 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.054 0.171 2.760 0.051 0.272 9 043009 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.074 0.864 5.856 0.064 0.361 10 043010 1911 1992 82 1.000 0.085 1.358 6.810 0.062 0.504 11 043011 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.084 0.813 3.314 0.063 0.521 12 043012 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.050 0.495 3.202 0.042 0.360 13 043013 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.071 0.658 5.360 0.070 0.158 14 043014 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.078 1.519 8.102 0.059 0.260 15 043015 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.081 1.311 6.559 0.056 0.478 16 043016 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.102 0.882 4.727 0.082 0.342 17 043017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.093 1.204 7.161 0.073 0.356 18 043018 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.062 0.218 3.163 0.059 0.213 19 043019 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.080 -0.204 3.593 0.058 0.591 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.082 0.436 4.813 0.069 0.368 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 1.000 0.078 0.909 5.276 0.061 0.383 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.013 0.514 1.693 0.009 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 1.000 0.081 0.880 5.078 0.059 0.377 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.013 0.758 2.763 0.010 0.156 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.050 -0.204 2.760 0.042 0.158 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.071 0.576 3.922 0.057 0.307 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.084 1.334 6.685 0.066 0.463 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.102 1.776 8.160 0.082 0.591 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 043001 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 043002 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 043003 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 043004 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 043005 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 043006 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 043007 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 043008 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 043009 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 043010 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 043011 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 043012 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 043013 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 043014 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 043015 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 043016 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 043017 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 043018 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 043019 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 043020 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.073 1.114 5.571 0.059 0.366 2 043002 1909 1994 86 1.000 0.087 1.531 6.580 0.071 0.332 3 043003 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.069 1.129 5.106 0.061 0.229 4 043004 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.065 1.157 5.548 0.053 0.278 5 043005 1897 1992 96 1.000 0.073 1.069 7.441 0.059 0.318 6 043006 1902 1992 91 0.999 0.072 1.093 4.536 0.057 0.389 7 043007 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.063 0.796 4.714 0.056 0.315 8 043008 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.052 0.194 2.814 0.051 0.211 9 043009 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.070 0.904 5.925 0.064 0.291 10 043010 1911 1992 82 1.000 0.078 1.212 6.068 0.062 0.416 11 043011 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.076 0.507 3.081 0.063 0.429 12 043012 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.048 0.557 3.420 0.042 0.325 13 043013 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.068 0.402 5.304 0.070 0.093 14 043014 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.068 1.337 7.358 0.059 0.101 15 043015 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.067 0.748 5.746 0.056 0.326 16 043016 1906 1992 87 0.999 0.089 0.755 4.799 0.082 0.139 17 043017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.092 1.339 7.107 0.073 0.326 18 043018 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.061 0.285 3.195 0.059 0.167 19 043019 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.071 0.426 4.522 0.058 0.445 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.079 0.460 4.728 0.069 0.316 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 1.000 0.071 0.851 5.178 0.061 0.291 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.011 0.393 1.376 0.009 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 1.000 0.070 0.850 5.205 0.059 0.317 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.011 0.659 1.467 0.010 0.129 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.999 0.048 0.194 2.814 0.042 0.093 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.066 0.484 4.529 0.057 0.220 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.077 1.143 5.996 0.066 0.349 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.092 1.531 7.441 0.082 0.445 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.401 0.158 0.011 0.546 3.172 0.048 0.856 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.048 SERIES 043010 AND 043016 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.856 SERIES 043002 AND 043004 86 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 171. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.596 0.583 0.536 0.327 0.362 0.449 0.416 SDEV 0.159 0.208 0.253 0.316 0.215 0.195 0.200 SERR 0.012 0.015 0.018 0.023 0.016 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.967 0.965 0.959 0.907 0.919 0.942 0.934 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 1.005 0.061 1.328 5.707 0.052 0.299 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.237 0.096 -0.046 47 51 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.62 1.01 1.10 1.72 4.33 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.06 0.00 0.85 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.296 0.148 0.054 0.041 -0.003 -0.105 -0.171 -0.149 -0.101 -0.082 PACF 0.296 0.066 -0.007 0.020 -0.024 -0.113 -0.124 -0.057 -0.019 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.202 0.219 0.223 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.226 0.231 0.235 0.237 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.116 0.328 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.123 -0.021 -0.058 -0.049 -0.034 -0.092 -0.151 -0.159 -0.086 -0.017 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.123 2 0.128 -0.036 3 0.126 -0.030 -0.052 4 0.124 -0.031 -0.048 -0.036 5 0.123 -0.032 -0.048 -0.033 -0.027 6 0.120 -0.035 -0.053 -0.036 -0.016 -0.092 7 0.108 -0.037 -0.058 -0.043 -0.021 -0.075 -0.139 8 0.088 -0.048 -0.061 -0.050 -0.029 -0.080 -0.124 -0.143 9 0.076 -0.058 -0.068 -0.052 -0.033 -0.085 -0.128 -0.135 -0.083 10 0.072 -0.064 -0.073 -0.056 -0.035 -0.088 -0.131 -0.138 -0.080 -0.043 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 421.79 422.29 424.16 425.89 427.76 429.69 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 430.86 430.94 430.93 432.25 434.06 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 043001 0 0.148 2 043002 0 0.125 3 043003 0 0.058 4 043004 0 0.086 5 043005 0 0.130 6 043006 0 0.181 7 043007 0 0.118 8 043008 0 0.045 9 043009 0 0.085 10 043010 0 0.177 11 043011 0 0.184 12 043012 0 0.109 13 043013 0 0.009 14 043014 0 0.013 15 043015 0 0.129 16 043016 0 0.020 17 043017 0 0.113 18 043018 0 0.029 19 043019 0 0.230 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 043020 0 0.101 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.105 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.062 MEDIAN 0 0.111 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.088 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.009 LOWER HINGE 0 0.051 UPPER HINGE 0 0.139 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.230 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.073 1.114 5.571 0.059 0.366 2 043002 1909 1994 86 1.000 0.087 1.531 6.580 0.071 0.332 3 043003 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.069 1.129 5.106 0.061 0.229 4 043004 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.065 1.157 5.548 0.053 0.278 5 043005 1897 1992 96 1.000 0.073 1.069 7.441 0.059 0.318 6 043006 1902 1992 91 1.000 0.072 1.093 4.536 0.057 0.389 7 043007 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.063 0.796 4.714 0.056 0.315 8 043008 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.052 0.194 2.814 0.051 0.211 9 043009 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.070 0.904 5.925 0.064 0.291 10 043010 1911 1992 82 1.000 0.078 1.212 6.068 0.062 0.416 11 043011 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.076 0.507 3.081 0.063 0.429 12 043012 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.048 0.557 3.420 0.042 0.325 13 043013 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.068 0.402 5.304 0.070 0.093 14 043014 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.068 1.337 7.358 0.059 0.101 15 043015 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.067 0.748 5.746 0.056 0.326 16 043016 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.089 0.755 4.799 0.082 0.139 17 043017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.092 1.339 7.107 0.073 0.326 18 043018 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.061 0.285 3.195 0.059 0.167 19 043019 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.071 0.426 4.522 0.058 0.445 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.079 0.460 4.728 0.069 0.316 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 1.000 0.071 0.851 5.178 0.061 0.291 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.011 0.393 1.376 0.009 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 1.000 0.070 0.850 5.205 0.059 0.317 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.011 0.659 1.467 0.010 0.129 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.048 0.194 2.814 0.042 0.093 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.066 0.484 4.529 0.057 0.220 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.077 1.143 5.996 0.066 0.349 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.092 1.531 7.441 0.082 0.445 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.401 0.158 0.011 0.546 3.172 0.048 0.856 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.048 SERIES 043010 AND 043016 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.856 SERIES 043002 AND 043004 86 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 171. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.596 0.583 0.536 0.327 0.362 0.449 0.416 SDEV 0.159 0.208 0.253 0.316 0.215 0.195 0.200 SERR 0.012 0.015 0.018 0.023 0.016 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.967 0.965 0.959 0.907 0.919 0.942 0.934 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 1.005 0.061 1.328 5.713 0.052 0.299 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.237 0.096 -0.046 47 51 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.62 1.00 1.10 1.72 4.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.06 0.00 0.85 0.91 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.296 0.148 0.054 0.041 -0.003 -0.105 -0.171 -0.148 -0.101 -0.082 PACF 0.296 0.066 -0.007 0.020 -0.025 -0.113 -0.124 -0.057 -0.019 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.202 0.219 0.223 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.226 0.231 0.235 0.237 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.116 0.328 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 1.005 0.061 1.328 5.713 0.052 0.299 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.296 0.148 0.054 0.041 -0.003 -0.105 -0.171 -0.148 -0.101 -0.082 PACF 0.296 0.066 -0.007 0.020 -0.025 -0.113 -0.124 -0.057 -0.019 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.202 0.219 0.223 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.226 0.231 0.235 0.237 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.116 0.328 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES