RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM050N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM050N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 043 1 Villingen-S. (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 043 2 Germany Norway spruce 880 4802-821 1897 1994 - 043 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 043003 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1951 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 043005 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1964 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 043020 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 0.235 0.023 1.857 7.281 0.061 0.541 2 043002 1909 1994 86 0.219 0.025 2.190 10.128 0.075 0.464 3 043003 1899 1994 96 0.226 0.033 2.315 9.615 0.075 0.606 4 043004 1901 1994 94 0.245 0.021 0.354 3.315 0.065 0.369 5 043005 1897 1992 96 0.238 0.026 2.411 14.470 0.076 0.424 6 043006 1902 1992 91 0.253 0.027 1.453 5.933 0.073 0.476 7 043007 1900 1992 93 0.251 0.023 0.636 4.927 0.071 0.416 8 043008 1903 1992 90 0.260 0.018 -0.091 3.540 0.060 0.364 9 043009 1903 1992 90 0.244 0.046 2.941 12.760 0.079 0.693 10 043010 1911 1992 82 0.242 0.029 2.070 9.082 0.070 0.642 11 043011 1900 1992 93 0.254 0.053 1.877 5.947 0.073 0.816 12 043012 1906 1992 87 0.263 0.023 1.885 8.443 0.062 0.476 13 043013 1899 1992 94 0.244 0.026 1.510 8.379 0.086 0.358 14 043014 1903 1992 90 0.274 0.031 1.137 5.857 0.079 0.405 15 043015 1899 1992 94 0.258 0.028 0.903 4.385 0.077 0.550 16 043016 1906 1992 87 0.253 0.037 0.665 4.489 0.097 0.558 17 043017 1899 1994 96 0.258 0.029 0.164 3.999 0.085 0.442 18 043018 1900 1994 95 0.263 0.027 1.165 5.112 0.073 0.515 19 043019 1899 1994 96 0.264 0.029 0.210 3.358 0.081 0.529 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 0.242 0.023 0.394 4.260 0.079 0.415 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1897 TO 1994 98 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 91 0.249 0.029 1.302 6.764 0.075 0.503 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.014 0.008 0.876 3.185 0.009 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 91 0.252 0.027 1.309 5.895 0.075 0.476 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.017 0.007 1.463 4.440 0.008 0.139 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.219 0.018 -0.091 3.315 0.060 0.358 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 89 0.242 0.023 0.515 4.322 0.071 0.415 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 0.259 0.030 1.978 8.763 0.079 0.554 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 0.274 0.053 2.941 14.470 0.097 0.816 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.268 0.250 0.018 -0.176 2.563 -0.464 0.810 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.464 SERIES 043009 AND 043017 90 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.810 SERIES 043001 AND 043002 86 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 171. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.520 0.517 0.422 0.135 0.226 0.420 0.342 SDEV 0.230 0.201 0.255 0.344 0.249 0.232 0.252 SERR 0.018 0.015 0.018 0.025 0.018 0.017 0.018 EPS 0.956 0.955 0.936 0.758 0.853 0.935 0.912 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 0.251 0.024 3.161 15.974 0.057 0.465 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.117 0.048 0.014 32 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.45 1.00 1.05 1.50 4.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.94 0.99 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 94. 4. 82. 90. 94. 96. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.461 0.421 0.298 0.188 0.072 0.041 -0.050 -0.099 -0.038 -0.043 PACF 0.461 0.265 0.045 -0.048 -0.099 -0.009 -0.070 -0.069 0.083 0.032 95% C.L. 0.202 0.241 0.269 0.283 0.288 0.288 0.289 0.289 0.290 0.291 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.406 0.372 0.338 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 043001 1 0.13851804 0.35280803 0.00000000 0.23130405 2 043002 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023756 0.20850343 3 043003 1 0.20267366 0.24147922 0.00000000 0.21828382 4 043004 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008980 0.24947837 5 043005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010315 0.24340816 6 043006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009699 0.25764835 7 043007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010041 0.25600982 8 043008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027049 0.24791510 9 043009 1 0.27201480 0.19371407 0.00000000 0.23030464 10 043010 1 0.12519605 0.25920886 0.00000000 0.23691349 11 043011 1 0.22718571 0.09925131 0.00000000 0.23024659 12 043012 1 0.10229871 0.16014451 0.00000000 0.25667816 13 043013 1 0.24396622 0.64629287 0.00000000 0.24150477 14 043014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049850 0.25131837 15 043015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022360 0.24714482 16 043016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00061329 0.22634856 17 043017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050624 0.23336403 18 043018 1 0.08553638 0.10445876 0.00000000 0.25434965 19 043019 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006348 0.26682895 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 043020 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003054 0.24349616 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.080 1.769 9.743 0.062 0.365 2 043002 1909 1994 86 1.000 0.109 1.852 7.865 0.074 0.436 3 043003 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.091 0.885 3.858 0.076 0.332 4 043004 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.085 0.482 3.700 0.064 0.357 5 043005 1897 1992 96 1.000 0.106 2.093 13.087 0.075 0.411 6 043006 1902 1992 91 1.000 0.105 1.305 5.448 0.072 0.471 7 043007 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.091 0.541 4.552 0.071 0.413 8 043008 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.063 0.255 3.997 0.059 0.246 9 043009 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.094 0.898 5.068 0.075 0.464 10 043010 1911 1992 82 1.000 0.098 1.332 5.549 0.070 0.524 11 043011 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.108 0.919 3.428 0.070 0.617 12 043012 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.059 0.197 3.264 0.061 0.153 13 043013 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.088 0.457 4.556 0.082 0.268 14 043014 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.107 2.328 12.777 0.078 0.218 15 043015 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.107 1.389 6.193 0.077 0.505 16 043016 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.130 0.678 5.258 0.097 0.461 17 043017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.101 0.859 4.949 0.085 0.265 18 043018 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.081 0.407 2.789 0.072 0.262 19 043019 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.108 0.092 3.298 0.080 0.524 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.096 0.281 4.218 0.078 0.405 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 1.000 0.095 0.951 5.680 0.074 0.385 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.017 0.665 2.970 0.009 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 1.000 0.097 0.872 4.753 0.075 0.408 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.020 0.929 2.092 0.008 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.059 0.092 2.789 0.059 0.153 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.086 0.432 3.779 0.070 0.267 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.107 1.361 5.871 0.078 0.467 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.130 2.328 13.087 0.097 0.617 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 043001 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 043002 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 043003 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 043004 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 043005 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 043006 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 043007 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 043008 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 043009 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 043010 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 043011 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 043012 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 043013 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 043014 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 043015 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 043016 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 043017 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 043018 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 043019 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 043020 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.069 0.935 5.024 0.062 0.259 2 043002 1909 1994 86 1.000 0.096 1.313 5.506 0.075 0.362 3 043003 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.085 1.110 4.916 0.076 0.221 4 043004 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.080 0.968 5.439 0.065 0.244 5 043005 1897 1992 96 0.999 0.092 1.440 9.520 0.075 0.314 6 043006 1902 1992 91 0.999 0.095 1.298 5.639 0.072 0.382 7 043007 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.086 0.572 4.561 0.071 0.353 8 043008 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.061 0.324 4.160 0.059 0.215 9 043009 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.088 1.094 5.481 0.075 0.401 10 043010 1911 1992 82 1.000 0.086 0.995 4.606 0.071 0.396 11 043011 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.092 0.385 3.066 0.070 0.492 12 043012 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.057 0.425 3.928 0.061 0.085 13 043013 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.084 0.356 4.351 0.082 0.202 14 043014 1903 1992 90 0.999 0.091 2.166 10.542 0.079 0.042 15 043015 1899 1992 94 0.999 0.088 0.887 4.888 0.077 0.353 16 043016 1906 1992 87 0.999 0.110 0.490 5.483 0.097 0.227 17 043017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.099 1.158 5.524 0.085 0.214 18 043018 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.079 0.446 2.953 0.072 0.227 19 043019 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.101 0.603 4.336 0.080 0.427 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.092 0.215 3.769 0.078 0.353 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 1.000 0.087 0.859 5.185 0.074 0.288 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.013 0.487 1.844 0.009 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 1.000 0.088 0.911 4.902 0.075 0.286 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.012 0.698 1.246 0.008 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.999 0.057 0.215 2.953 0.059 0.042 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 0.999 0.082 0.436 4.248 0.070 0.218 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.093 1.134 5.494 0.078 0.372 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.110 2.166 10.542 0.097 0.492 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.357 0.149 0.011 0.351 3.200 -0.048 0.767 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.048 SERIES 043010 AND 043016 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.767 SERIES 043002 AND 043004 86 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 171. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.560 0.536 0.441 0.138 0.243 0.440 0.376 SDEV 0.181 0.199 0.233 0.330 0.238 0.227 0.241 SERR 0.014 0.014 0.017 0.024 0.017 0.016 0.017 EPS 0.962 0.959 0.940 0.762 0.866 0.940 0.923 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 1.007 0.076 1.856 7.672 0.063 0.258 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.224 0.086 -0.021 41 57 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.45 1.01 1.08 1.53 2.77 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.04 0.00 0.86 0.90 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.255 0.183 0.106 0.048 -0.117 -0.097 -0.169 -0.198 -0.084 -0.114 PACF 0.255 0.126 0.036 -0.006 -0.159 -0.053 -0.112 -0.113 0.040 -0.064 95% C.L. 0.202 0.215 0.221 0.223 0.224 0.226 0.228 0.233 0.240 0.241 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.115 0.241 0.167 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.079 -0.016 0.053 -0.062 -0.172 -0.083 -0.100 -0.187 -0.029 -0.055 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.079 2 0.081 -0.023 3 0.083 -0.027 0.057 4 0.087 -0.029 0.063 -0.072 5 0.075 -0.019 0.058 -0.058 -0.161 6 0.065 -0.023 0.062 -0.059 -0.156 -0.065 7 0.058 -0.038 0.056 -0.053 -0.159 -0.059 -0.093 8 0.042 -0.048 0.029 -0.063 -0.149 -0.065 -0.083 -0.173 9 0.037 -0.050 0.027 -0.067 -0.151 -0.065 -0.085 -0.171 -0.030 10 0.034 -0.067 0.018 -0.074 -0.166 -0.071 -0.082 -0.176 -0.027 -0.100 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 449.38 450.76 452.71 454.39 455.88 455.30 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 456.89 458.03 457.07 458.97 459.99 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 043001 0 0.077 2 043002 0 0.144 3 043003 0 0.058 4 043004 0 0.070 5 043005 0 0.137 6 043006 0 0.172 7 043007 0 0.144 8 043008 0 0.047 9 043009 0 0.162 10 043010 0 0.160 11 043011 0 0.243 12 043012 0 0.007 13 043013 0 0.042 14 043014 0 0.002 15 043015 0 0.149 16 043016 0 0.053 17 043017 0 0.053 18 043018 0 0.052 19 043019 0 0.216 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 043020 0 0.126 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.106 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.068 MEDIAN 0 0.102 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.002 LOWER HINGE 0 0.052 UPPER HINGE 0 0.154 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.243 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.069 0.935 5.024 0.062 0.259 2 043002 1909 1994 86 1.000 0.096 1.313 5.506 0.075 0.362 3 043003 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.085 1.110 4.916 0.076 0.221 4 043004 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.080 0.968 5.439 0.065 0.244 5 043005 1897 1992 96 1.000 0.092 1.440 9.520 0.075 0.314 6 043006 1902 1992 91 1.000 0.095 1.298 5.639 0.072 0.382 7 043007 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.086 0.572 4.561 0.071 0.353 8 043008 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.061 0.324 4.160 0.059 0.215 9 043009 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.088 1.094 5.481 0.075 0.401 10 043010 1911 1992 82 1.000 0.086 0.995 4.606 0.071 0.396 11 043011 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.092 0.385 3.066 0.070 0.492 12 043012 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.057 0.425 3.928 0.061 0.085 13 043013 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.084 0.356 4.351 0.082 0.202 14 043014 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.091 2.166 10.542 0.079 0.042 15 043015 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.088 0.887 4.888 0.077 0.353 16 043016 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.110 0.490 5.483 0.096 0.227 17 043017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.099 1.158 5.524 0.085 0.214 18 043018 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.079 0.446 2.953 0.072 0.227 19 043019 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.101 0.603 4.336 0.080 0.427 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.092 0.215 3.769 0.078 0.353 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 1.000 0.087 0.859 5.185 0.074 0.288 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.013 0.487 1.844 0.009 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 1.000 0.088 0.911 4.902 0.075 0.286 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.012 0.698 1.246 0.008 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.057 0.215 2.953 0.059 0.042 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.082 0.436 4.248 0.070 0.218 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.093 1.134 5.494 0.078 0.372 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.110 2.166 10.542 0.096 0.492 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.357 0.149 0.011 0.351 3.200 -0.048 0.767 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.048 SERIES 043010 AND 043016 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.767 SERIES 043002 AND 043004 86 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 171. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.560 0.536 0.441 0.138 0.243 0.440 0.376 SDEV 0.181 0.199 0.233 0.330 0.238 0.227 0.241 SERR 0.014 0.014 0.017 0.024 0.017 0.016 0.017 EPS 0.962 0.959 0.940 0.762 0.866 0.940 0.923 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 1.008 0.076 1.857 7.678 0.063 0.258 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.224 0.086 -0.021 41 57 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.48 1.01 1.07 1.55 2.78 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.04 0.00 0.86 0.90 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.255 0.183 0.106 0.048 -0.117 -0.097 -0.169 -0.198 -0.084 -0.114 PACF 0.255 0.126 0.036 -0.006 -0.159 -0.053 -0.112 -0.113 0.040 -0.064 95% C.L. 0.202 0.215 0.221 0.223 0.224 0.226 0.228 0.233 0.240 0.241 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.115 0.242 0.167 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 1.008 0.076 1.857 7.678 0.063 0.258 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.255 0.183 0.106 0.048 -0.117 -0.097 -0.169 -0.198 -0.084 -0.114 PACF 0.255 0.126 0.036 -0.006 -0.159 -0.053 -0.112 -0.113 0.040 -0.064 95% C.L. 0.202 0.215 0.221 0.223 0.224 0.226 0.228 0.233 0.240 0.241 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.115 0.242 0.167 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.12 MINUTES