RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM050T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM050T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 043 1 Villingen-S. (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_LATE PCAB - 043 2 Germany Norway spruce 880 4802-821 1897 1994 - 043 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 7.725 0.765 -1.021 3.500 0.064 0.627 2 043002 1909 1994 86 7.185 0.674 -0.334 5.771 0.074 0.350 3 043003 1899 1994 96 7.208 0.639 -0.854 5.285 0.075 0.377 4 043004 1901 1994 94 7.744 0.803 -0.732 3.278 0.076 0.543 5 043005 1897 1992 96 7.402 0.805 -0.706 2.780 0.076 0.576 6 043006 1902 1992 91 7.614 0.601 -0.543 4.188 0.076 0.243 7 043007 1900 1992 93 7.537 0.673 -0.522 2.900 0.083 0.330 8 043008 1903 1992 90 7.844 0.724 -0.919 3.548 0.073 0.412 9 043009 1903 1992 90 7.242 0.654 0.058 3.838 0.089 0.270 10 043010 1911 1992 82 7.054 0.593 0.046 2.951 0.078 0.339 11 043011 1900 1992 93 7.305 0.640 0.028 3.197 0.077 0.385 12 043012 1906 1992 87 7.781 0.593 -0.224 2.295 0.065 0.381 13 043013 1899 1992 94 7.308 0.786 -0.217 3.409 0.103 0.275 14 043014 1903 1992 90 7.888 0.915 -0.555 3.304 0.113 0.298 15 043015 1899 1992 94 7.715 0.823 -0.829 3.669 0.106 0.315 16 043016 1906 1992 87 7.228 1.130 -0.552 3.401 0.104 0.672 17 043017 1899 1994 96 7.584 0.887 -0.938 4.249 0.101 0.463 18 043018 1900 1994 95 7.742 0.872 -0.419 3.149 0.112 0.277 19 043019 1899 1994 96 7.860 0.948 -0.623 3.296 0.099 0.515 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 7.592 0.853 -0.562 3.305 0.103 0.336 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1897 TO 1994 98 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 7.528 0.769 -0.521 3.566 0.087 0.399 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.263 0.141 0.330 0.810 0.016 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 7.588 0.775 -0.554 3.353 0.080 0.364 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.469 0.215 0.501 0.581 0.027 0.182 MINIMUM VALUE 82 7.054 0.593 -1.021 2.295 0.064 0.243 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 7.273 0.647 -0.780 3.173 0.075 0.306 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 7.743 0.862 -0.279 3.754 0.103 0.489 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 7.888 1.130 0.058 5.771 0.113 0.672 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.587 0.183 0.013 -0.707 3.273 -0.113 0.900 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.113 SERIES 043002 AND 043016 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.900 SERIES 043005 AND 043008 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 171. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.725 0.655 0.610 0.346 0.306 0.497 0.553 SDEV 0.124 0.258 0.292 0.330 0.297 0.228 0.226 SERR 0.009 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.022 0.017 0.016 EPS 0.981 0.974 0.969 0.914 0.898 0.952 0.961 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 7.500 0.679 -0.915 3.735 0.075 0.444 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.302 0.072 -0.014 24 74 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 1.43 1.04 1.17 2.60 9.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.00 0.86 0.91 0.98 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 94. 4. 82. 90. 94. 96. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.440 0.426 0.360 0.400 0.382 0.322 0.284 0.312 0.273 0.309 PACF 0.440 0.288 0.134 0.189 0.132 0.024 0.001 0.075 0.008 0.081 95% C.L. 0.202 0.238 0.267 0.286 0.308 0.327 0.340 0.349 0.360 0.369 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.316 0.309 0.333 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 043001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01643398 6.94396019 2 043002 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097599 7.22792053 3 043003 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01053669 6.69657469 4 043004 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01041368 7.24907351 5 043005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01648684 6.60247135 6 043006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00915305 7.19291592 7 043007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01098236 7.02081823 8 043008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01427534 7.19469404 9 043009 1 0.13045281 0.02906349 0.00000000 7.19655323 10 043010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00475539 7.25088549 11 043011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00420384 7.10715055 12 043012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00271087 7.66221619 13 043013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01075259 6.79691172 14 043014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01746701 7.09325123 15 043015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01354803 7.07104301 16 043016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02286816 6.22184706 17 043017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02084997 6.57252645 18 043018 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01067455 7.22972679 19 043019 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01453072 7.15536404 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 043020 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01458339 6.89941645 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.082 -0.487 4.031 0.064 0.424 2 043002 1909 1994 86 1.000 0.093 -0.411 5.885 0.073 0.343 3 043003 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.080 -0.642 5.660 0.074 0.185 4 043004 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.098 -0.367 2.816 0.075 0.468 5 043005 1897 1992 96 1.000 0.090 -0.251 2.621 0.075 0.414 6 043006 1902 1992 91 1.000 0.072 -0.717 4.074 0.075 0.122 7 043007 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.081 -0.273 2.667 0.082 0.180 8 043008 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.080 -0.612 3.181 0.072 0.256 9 043009 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.090 0.060 3.920 0.088 0.264 10 043010 1911 1992 82 1.000 0.082 0.050 3.405 0.077 0.300 11 043011 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.086 0.100 3.043 0.076 0.363 12 043012 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.076 -0.212 2.340 0.064 0.373 13 043013 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.099 -0.420 3.251 0.102 0.158 14 043014 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.102 -0.414 3.304 0.111 0.078 15 043015 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.096 -0.786 3.585 0.105 0.148 16 043016 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.137 -0.650 3.709 0.102 0.569 17 043017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.091 -0.957 4.780 0.100 0.056 18 043018 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.107 -0.301 3.244 0.111 0.190 19 043019 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.110 -0.326 3.107 0.098 0.396 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.099 -0.609 4.101 0.101 0.146 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 1.000 0.093 -0.411 3.636 0.086 0.272 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.015 0.284 0.939 0.016 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 1.000 0.091 -0.413 3.354 0.079 0.260 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.018 0.364 0.977 0.027 0.232 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.072 -0.957 2.340 0.064 0.056 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.081 -0.627 3.075 0.074 0.153 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.099 -0.262 4.052 0.101 0.385 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.137 0.100 5.885 0.111 0.569 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 043001 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 043002 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 043003 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 043004 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 043005 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 043006 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 043007 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 043008 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 043009 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 043010 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 043011 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 043012 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 043013 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 043014 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 043015 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 043016 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 043017 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 043018 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 043019 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 043020 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.059 -1.115 6.180 0.064 -0.082 2 043002 1909 1994 86 0.999 0.081 -0.573 5.499 0.073 0.108 3 043003 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.073 -0.626 6.381 0.074 -0.023 4 043004 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.065 -0.426 5.306 0.075 -0.239 5 043005 1897 1992 96 1.000 0.068 -0.978 4.257 0.075 0.002 6 043006 1902 1992 91 1.000 0.065 -0.981 4.600 0.075 -0.087 7 043007 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.071 -0.531 3.447 0.082 -0.084 8 043008 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.070 -0.834 3.849 0.072 0.042 9 043009 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.086 -0.228 3.796 0.088 0.224 10 043010 1911 1992 82 1.000 0.075 -0.307 4.024 0.077 0.193 11 043011 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.081 -0.048 3.536 0.076 0.252 12 043012 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.065 -0.455 2.776 0.064 0.169 13 043013 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.096 -0.493 3.255 0.102 0.086 14 043014 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.098 -0.576 3.367 0.111 -0.017 15 043015 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.090 -1.026 4.019 0.105 0.016 16 043016 1906 1992 87 0.998 0.119 -0.653 4.128 0.102 0.416 17 043017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.085 -0.845 4.603 0.100 -0.128 18 043018 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.098 -0.691 3.847 0.111 0.037 19 043019 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.086 -0.642 3.507 0.098 -0.015 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.087 -0.518 4.162 0.101 -0.108 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 1.000 0.081 -0.627 4.227 0.086 0.038 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.015 0.276 0.959 0.016 0.154 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 1.000 0.081 -0.601 4.021 0.079 0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.020 0.365 1.080 0.027 0.221 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.998 0.059 -1.115 2.776 0.064 -0.239 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.069 -0.839 3.522 0.074 -0.083 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.089 -0.474 4.602 0.101 0.138 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.119 -0.048 6.381 0.111 0.416 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.560 0.140 0.010 -0.435 2.825 0.089 0.828 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.089 SERIES 043002 AND 043016 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.828 SERIES 043017 AND 043019 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 171. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.714 0.686 0.596 0.359 0.320 0.495 0.557 SDEV 0.136 0.216 0.267 0.317 0.284 0.225 0.231 SERR 0.010 0.016 0.019 0.023 0.021 0.016 0.017 EPS 0.980 0.978 0.967 0.918 0.904 0.952 0.962 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 1.001 0.062 -0.703 3.922 0.074 -0.080 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.164 -0.050 0.101 29 69 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.51 0.92 1.01 1.18 2.10 5.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.93 0.98 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.079 0.042 -0.091 -0.032 -0.008 -0.087 -0.085 -0.073 -0.035 0.108 PACF -0.079 0.036 -0.085 -0.047 -0.008 -0.095 -0.108 -0.089 -0.065 0.079 95% C.L. 0.202 0.203 0.204 0.205 0.205 0.206 0.207 0.208 0.209 0.210 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.099 0.089 -0.079 -0.028 -0.009 -0.042 -0.093 -0.082 -0.050 0.083 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.099 2 -0.091 0.080 3 -0.086 0.075 -0.064 4 -0.089 0.078 -0.069 -0.049 5 -0.089 0.078 -0.068 -0.049 -0.004 6 -0.089 0.076 -0.071 -0.046 -0.008 -0.043 7 -0.094 0.075 -0.076 -0.054 0.000 -0.052 -0.108 8 -0.105 0.070 -0.076 -0.059 -0.008 -0.045 -0.118 -0.099 9 -0.111 0.062 -0.079 -0.060 -0.011 -0.050 -0.113 -0.106 -0.062 10 -0.106 0.070 -0.071 -0.056 -0.010 -0.046 -0.108 -0.110 -0.054 0.069 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 481.62 482.66 484.03 485.62 487.39 489.38 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 491.21 492.05 493.08 494.71 496.24 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 043001 0 0.007 2 043002 0 0.012 3 043003 0 0.001 4 043004 0 0.057 5 043005 0 0.000 6 043006 0 0.008 7 043007 0 0.007 8 043008 0 0.002 9 043009 0 0.054 10 043010 0 0.040 11 043011 0 0.072 12 043012 0 0.029 13 043013 0 0.008 14 043014 0 0.000 15 043015 0 0.000 16 043016 0 0.181 17 043017 0 0.017 18 043018 0 0.001 19 043019 0 0.000 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 043020 0 0.013 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.026 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.043 MEDIAN 0 0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.033 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.001 UPPER HINGE 0 0.034 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.181 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.059 -1.115 6.180 0.064 -0.082 2 043002 1909 1994 86 1.000 0.081 -0.573 5.499 0.073 0.108 3 043003 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.073 -0.626 6.381 0.074 -0.023 4 043004 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.065 -0.426 5.306 0.075 -0.239 5 043005 1897 1992 96 1.000 0.068 -0.978 4.257 0.075 0.002 6 043006 1902 1992 91 1.000 0.065 -0.981 4.600 0.075 -0.087 7 043007 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.071 -0.531 3.447 0.082 -0.084 8 043008 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.070 -0.834 3.849 0.072 0.042 9 043009 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.086 -0.228 3.796 0.088 0.224 10 043010 1911 1992 82 1.000 0.075 -0.307 4.024 0.077 0.193 11 043011 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.081 -0.048 3.536 0.076 0.252 12 043012 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.065 -0.455 2.776 0.064 0.169 13 043013 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.096 -0.493 3.255 0.101 0.086 14 043014 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.098 -0.577 3.367 0.111 -0.017 15 043015 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.090 -1.026 4.019 0.105 0.016 16 043016 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.119 -0.653 4.128 0.102 0.416 17 043017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.085 -0.845 4.603 0.100 -0.128 18 043018 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.098 -0.691 3.847 0.111 0.037 19 043019 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.086 -0.642 3.507 0.098 -0.015 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.087 -0.518 4.162 0.101 -0.108 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 1.000 0.081 -0.627 4.227 0.086 0.038 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.015 0.276 0.959 0.016 0.154 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 1.000 0.081 -0.601 4.021 0.079 0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.020 0.365 1.080 0.027 0.221 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.059 -1.115 2.776 0.064 -0.239 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.069 -0.839 3.522 0.074 -0.083 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.089 -0.474 4.602 0.101 0.138 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.119 -0.048 6.381 0.111 0.416 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.560 0.140 0.010 -0.435 2.825 0.089 0.828 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.089 SERIES 043002 AND 043016 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.828 SERIES 043017 AND 043019 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 171. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.714 0.686 0.596 0.359 0.320 0.495 0.557 SDEV 0.136 0.216 0.267 0.317 0.284 0.225 0.231 SERR 0.010 0.016 0.019 0.023 0.021 0.016 0.017 EPS 0.980 0.978 0.967 0.918 0.904 0.952 0.962 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 1.001 0.062 -0.704 3.922 0.073 -0.080 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.166 -0.050 0.101 29 69 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.49 0.93 1.01 1.18 2.11 5.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.93 0.99 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.079 0.042 -0.091 -0.032 -0.008 -0.087 -0.085 -0.073 -0.035 0.108 PACF -0.079 0.036 -0.086 -0.048 -0.008 -0.095 -0.108 -0.089 -0.066 0.079 95% C.L. 0.202 0.203 0.204 0.205 0.206 0.206 0.207 0.208 0.209 0.210 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 1.001 0.062 -0.704 3.922 0.073 -0.080 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.079 0.042 -0.091 -0.032 -0.008 -0.087 -0.085 -0.073 -0.035 0.108 PACF -0.079 0.036 -0.086 -0.048 -0.008 -0.095 -0.108 -0.089 -0.066 0.079 95% C.L. 0.202 0.203 0.204 0.205 0.206 0.206 0.207 0.208 0.209 0.210 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES