RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM050X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM050X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 043 1 Villingen-S. (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCAB - 043 2 Germany Norway spruce 880 4802-821 1897 1994 - 043 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 0.897 0.079 -0.978 4.092 0.074 0.403 2 043002 1909 1994 86 0.843 0.076 -0.918 6.836 0.076 0.236 3 043003 1899 1994 96 0.851 0.072 -1.164 6.781 0.072 0.363 4 043004 1901 1994 94 0.896 0.081 -1.161 4.454 0.073 0.444 5 043005 1897 1992 96 0.886 0.095 -1.013 3.475 0.076 0.545 6 043006 1902 1992 91 0.906 0.072 -1.006 5.767 0.076 0.189 7 043007 1900 1992 93 0.902 0.076 -0.931 3.807 0.075 0.322 8 043008 1903 1992 90 0.939 0.084 -1.169 4.114 0.071 0.376 9 043009 1903 1992 90 0.869 0.071 -0.249 3.611 0.082 0.267 10 043010 1911 1992 82 0.847 0.067 -0.265 2.767 0.077 0.292 11 043011 1900 1992 93 0.861 0.075 0.019 3.535 0.077 0.367 12 043012 1906 1992 87 0.911 0.066 -0.277 2.739 0.068 0.254 13 043013 1899 1992 94 0.875 0.085 -0.731 3.914 0.102 0.158 14 043014 1903 1992 90 0.927 0.099 -0.847 3.755 0.103 0.260 15 043015 1899 1992 94 0.914 0.090 -1.136 4.570 0.096 0.225 16 043016 1906 1992 87 0.869 0.124 -0.709 3.697 0.104 0.604 17 043017 1899 1994 96 0.891 0.097 -1.201 5.036 0.097 0.368 18 043018 1900 1994 95 0.905 0.092 -0.550 3.384 0.100 0.190 19 043019 1899 1994 96 0.915 0.100 -0.931 4.101 0.095 0.427 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 0.892 0.092 -0.655 3.545 0.102 0.234 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1897 TO 1994 98 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 0.890 0.085 -0.794 4.199 0.085 0.326 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.027 0.014 0.361 1.130 0.013 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 0.894 0.082 -0.924 3.861 0.077 0.307 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.039 0.020 0.472 0.972 0.025 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.843 0.066 -1.201 2.739 0.068 0.158 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 0.869 0.074 -1.075 3.540 0.074 0.235 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 0.908 0.093 -0.603 4.512 0.099 0.390 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 0.939 0.124 0.019 6.836 0.104 0.604 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.649 0.155 0.011 -0.665 3.319 0.067 0.922 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.067 SERIES 043002 AND 043016 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.922 SERIES 043005 AND 043008 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 171. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.776 0.730 0.698 0.511 0.417 0.574 0.615 SDEV 0.130 0.209 0.258 0.260 0.253 0.222 0.210 SERR 0.010 0.015 0.019 0.019 0.018 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.986 0.982 0.979 0.954 0.935 0.964 0.970 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 0.886 0.079 -1.087 4.566 0.078 0.378 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.031 0.006 0.047 35 63 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.86 1.01 1.05 1.91 16.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 94. 4. 82. 90. 94. 96. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.374 0.358 0.286 0.308 0.310 0.262 0.226 0.265 0.222 0.255 PACF 0.374 0.254 0.113 0.143 0.131 0.047 0.014 0.092 0.019 0.069 95% C.L. 0.202 0.229 0.250 0.263 0.278 0.292 0.301 0.308 0.317 0.323 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.250 0.281 0.301 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 043001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00149037 0.82612216 2 043002 1 0.42452052 0.00000001 0.00000000 0.41817212 3 043003 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00124288 0.79107457 4 043004 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00117726 0.84014416 5 043005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00196344 0.79112720 6 043006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00104794 0.85761905 7 043007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00103205 0.85385931 8 043008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00152768 0.86949062 9 043009 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001811 0.86993510 10 043010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051556 0.86883467 11 043011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00057399 0.83377510 12 043012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020431 0.90181500 13 043013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00093653 0.83008921 14 043014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00163049 0.85314608 15 043015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00123397 0.85564172 16 043016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00226398 0.76969528 17 043017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00202638 0.79224122 18 043018 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00096962 0.85830009 19 043019 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00144174 0.84538817 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 043020 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00141321 0.82468086 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.076 -0.652 4.599 0.073 0.178 2 043002 1909 1994 86 1.000 0.090 -0.919 6.837 0.075 0.233 3 043003 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.076 -0.987 7.388 0.071 0.151 4 043004 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.084 -0.741 3.864 0.072 0.327 5 043005 1897 1992 96 1.000 0.089 -0.637 3.338 0.075 0.366 6 043006 1902 1992 91 1.000 0.074 -0.957 5.423 0.075 0.072 7 043007 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.079 -0.746 3.502 0.074 0.225 8 043008 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.080 -0.902 3.746 0.070 0.240 9 043009 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.082 -0.249 3.620 0.081 0.263 10 043010 1911 1992 82 1.000 0.078 -0.271 2.904 0.076 0.254 11 043011 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.085 0.073 3.142 0.076 0.346 12 043012 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.073 -0.268 2.680 0.067 0.252 13 043013 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.093 -0.871 3.717 0.101 0.075 14 043014 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.097 -0.713 3.656 0.102 0.101 15 043015 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.092 -1.055 4.475 0.095 0.105 16 043016 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.128 -0.826 3.700 0.103 0.508 17 043017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.091 -1.164 5.475 0.096 0.038 18 043018 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.097 -0.511 3.625 0.100 0.118 19 043019 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.102 -0.721 3.888 0.095 0.310 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.093 -0.773 4.417 0.100 0.052 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 1.000 0.088 -0.694 4.200 0.084 0.211 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.013 0.312 1.230 0.013 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 1.000 0.087 -0.743 3.732 0.076 0.229 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.014 0.336 0.976 0.025 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.073 -1.164 2.680 0.067 0.038 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.079 -0.910 3.561 0.073 0.103 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.093 -0.574 4.537 0.098 0.287 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.128 0.073 7.388 0.103 0.508 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 043001 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 043002 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 043003 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 043004 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 043005 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 043006 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 043007 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 043008 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 043009 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 043010 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 043011 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 043012 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 043013 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 043014 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 043015 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 043016 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 043017 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 043018 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 043019 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 043020 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.061 -1.038 5.203 0.074 -0.255 2 043002 1909 1994 86 0.999 0.080 -0.723 6.135 0.075 -0.005 3 043003 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.069 -1.127 8.137 0.071 -0.055 4 043004 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.062 -1.043 6.244 0.072 -0.273 5 043005 1897 1992 96 1.000 0.071 -1.139 4.959 0.075 0.019 6 043006 1902 1992 91 1.000 0.066 -1.179 6.457 0.075 -0.152 7 043007 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.069 -1.282 5.368 0.074 -0.029 8 043008 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.070 -1.287 5.124 0.070 0.036 9 043009 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.078 -0.516 3.833 0.081 0.198 10 043010 1911 1992 82 1.000 0.073 -0.535 3.443 0.076 0.179 11 043011 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.078 -0.183 3.687 0.076 0.217 12 043012 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.064 -0.476 3.188 0.067 0.074 13 043013 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.090 -0.932 3.810 0.101 0.005 14 043014 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.094 -0.872 3.933 0.102 0.017 15 043015 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.089 -1.254 4.920 0.095 0.035 16 043016 1906 1992 87 0.999 0.115 -0.695 4.014 0.103 0.375 17 043017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.085 -1.130 5.347 0.097 -0.111 18 043018 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.092 -0.842 3.918 0.099 0.020 19 043019 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.085 -1.051 4.356 0.095 -0.012 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.085 -0.728 4.012 0.100 -0.118 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 1.000 0.079 -0.902 4.804 0.084 0.008 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.013 0.308 1.240 0.013 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 1.000 0.078 -0.985 4.638 0.076 0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.018 0.426 1.482 0.024 0.138 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.999 0.061 -1.287 3.188 0.067 -0.273 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.069 -1.135 3.875 0.074 -0.083 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.087 -0.709 5.358 0.098 0.055 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.115 -0.183 8.137 0.103 0.375 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.634 0.123 0.009 -0.387 2.870 0.232 0.906 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.232 SERIES 043002 AND 043016 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.906 SERIES 043017 AND 043019 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 171. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.756 0.765 0.690 0.522 0.431 0.563 0.613 SDEV 0.161 0.172 0.237 0.257 0.232 0.222 0.212 SERR 0.012 0.012 0.017 0.019 0.017 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.984 0.985 0.978 0.956 0.938 0.963 0.969 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 1.001 0.065 -0.904 4.241 0.076 -0.061 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.336 -0.090 0.135 40 58 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.62 1.01 1.04 1.66 10.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 0.99 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.061 0.040 -0.070 -0.058 -0.032 -0.062 -0.076 -0.031 -0.015 0.111 PACF -0.061 0.037 -0.066 -0.068 -0.035 -0.067 -0.093 -0.049 -0.030 0.090 95% C.L. 0.202 0.203 0.203 0.204 0.205 0.205 0.206 0.207 0.207 0.207 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.096 0.112 -0.037 -0.054 -0.018 -0.036 -0.117 -0.076 -0.030 0.096 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.096 2 -0.086 0.104 3 -0.084 0.102 -0.018 4 -0.085 0.109 -0.024 -0.072 5 -0.087 0.109 -0.021 -0.074 -0.023 6 -0.087 0.107 -0.022 -0.071 -0.025 -0.027 7 -0.091 0.104 -0.031 -0.073 -0.012 -0.038 -0.125 8 -0.103 0.100 -0.032 -0.081 -0.015 -0.028 -0.135 -0.100 9 -0.106 0.096 -0.033 -0.081 -0.017 -0.029 -0.132 -0.102 -0.026 10 -0.103 0.107 -0.019 -0.078 -0.015 -0.020 -0.129 -0.112 -0.015 0.101 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 488.23 489.32 490.27 492.24 493.73 495.68 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 497.61 498.06 499.08 501.01 502.01 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 043001 0 0.071 2 043002 0 0.000 3 043003 0 0.003 4 043004 0 0.075 5 043005 0 0.000 6 043006 0 0.024 7 043007 0 0.001 8 043008 0 0.001 9 043009 0 0.041 10 043010 0 0.034 11 043011 0 0.053 12 043012 0 0.006 13 043013 0 0.000 14 043014 0 0.000 15 043015 0 0.001 16 043016 0 0.149 17 043017 0 0.013 18 043018 0 0.000 19 043019 0 0.000 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 043020 0 0.016 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.025 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.038 MEDIAN 0 0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.037 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.000 UPPER HINGE 0 0.038 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.149 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 043001 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.061 -1.038 5.203 0.074 -0.255 2 043002 1909 1994 86 1.000 0.080 -0.723 6.135 0.075 -0.005 3 043003 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.069 -1.127 8.137 0.071 -0.055 4 043004 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.062 -1.043 6.243 0.072 -0.273 5 043005 1897 1992 96 1.000 0.071 -1.139 4.959 0.075 0.019 6 043006 1902 1992 91 1.000 0.066 -1.179 6.457 0.075 -0.152 7 043007 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.069 -1.282 5.368 0.074 -0.029 8 043008 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.070 -1.287 5.124 0.070 0.036 9 043009 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.078 -0.516 3.833 0.081 0.198 10 043010 1911 1992 82 1.000 0.073 -0.535 3.443 0.076 0.179 11 043011 1900 1992 93 1.000 0.078 -0.183 3.687 0.076 0.217 12 043012 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.064 -0.476 3.188 0.067 0.074 13 043013 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.090 -0.932 3.810 0.101 0.005 14 043014 1903 1992 90 1.000 0.094 -0.872 3.933 0.102 0.017 15 043015 1899 1992 94 1.000 0.089 -1.254 4.920 0.095 0.035 16 043016 1906 1992 87 1.000 0.115 -0.695 4.014 0.103 0.375 17 043017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.085 -1.130 5.347 0.097 -0.111 18 043018 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.092 -0.842 3.918 0.099 0.020 19 043019 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.085 -1.051 4.356 0.095 -0.012 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 043020 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.085 -0.728 4.012 0.100 -0.118 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 92 1.000 0.079 -0.902 4.804 0.084 0.008 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.000 0.013 0.308 1.240 0.013 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 1.000 0.078 -0.985 4.638 0.076 0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.018 0.426 1.482 0.024 0.138 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.061 -1.287 3.188 0.067 -0.273 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.069 -1.135 3.875 0.074 -0.083 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.087 -0.709 5.358 0.098 0.055 MAXIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.115 -0.183 8.137 0.103 0.375 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.634 0.123 0.009 -0.387 2.870 0.232 0.906 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.232 SERIES 043002 AND 043016 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.906 SERIES 043017 AND 043019 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 171. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.756 0.765 0.690 0.522 0.431 0.563 0.613 SDEV 0.161 0.172 0.237 0.257 0.232 0.222 0.212 SERR 0.012 0.012 0.017 0.019 0.017 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.984 0.985 0.978 0.956 0.938 0.963 0.969 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 1.001 0.065 -0.905 4.245 0.076 -0.062 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.335 -0.090 0.135 40 58 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.61 1.01 1.04 1.65 10.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.92 0.99 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.061 0.040 -0.070 -0.057 -0.033 -0.061 -0.076 -0.031 -0.015 0.111 PACF -0.061 0.036 -0.066 -0.067 -0.035 -0.067 -0.093 -0.049 -0.031 0.090 95% C.L. 0.202 0.203 0.203 0.204 0.205 0.205 0.206 0.207 0.207 0.207 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1897 1994 98 1.001 0.065 -0.905 4.245 0.076 -0.062 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.061 0.040 -0.070 -0.057 -0.033 -0.061 -0.076 -0.031 -0.015 0.111 PACF -0.061 0.036 -0.066 -0.067 -0.035 -0.067 -0.093 -0.049 -0.031 0.090 95% C.L. 0.202 0.203 0.203 0.204 0.205 0.205 0.206 0.207 0.207 0.207 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES