RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM051E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM051E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 044 1 Villingen-S. (D), EU-Pr. WIDTH_EARLY ABAL - 044 2 Germany silver fir, European fir 880 4802-821 1898 1994 - 044 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 044021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 044023 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 044027 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 044031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 044033 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 044035 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1980 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 044037 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 4 GAPS / 1972 1972 / 1974 1974 / 1976 1978 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.793 1.447 1.162 3.896 0.164 0.947 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.877 1.361 0.982 3.862 0.159 0.947 3 044015 1899 1994 96 1.830 1.425 1.547 5.620 0.169 0.936 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.678 1.365 1.368 4.815 0.174 0.938 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.638 1.176 0.901 3.144 0.233 0.936 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.632 1.309 1.937 6.501 0.212 0.962 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.638 0.990 1.092 4.287 0.275 0.926 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.355 0.998 1.514 5.085 0.240 0.930 9 044031 1899 1994 96 1.528 1.188 0.833 2.797 0.214 0.944 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.685 1.233 0.731 2.840 0.223 0.950 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.245 1.101 1.599 4.999 0.256 0.932 12 044037 1899 1994 96 1.290 1.205 1.184 3.280 0.220 0.962 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.623 0.444 0.739 5.500 0.184 0.648 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.531 0.539 0.320 2.335 0.201 0.742 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.375 0.502 0.673 3.485 0.158 0.816 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.428 0.465 0.018 2.629 0.190 0.751 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.161 1.060 1.589 4.096 0.192 0.946 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.329 1.053 1.672 4.430 0.191 0.938 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.254 1.008 1.592 4.437 0.200 0.935 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.305 0.972 1.124 2.874 0.162 0.962 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1898 TO 1994 97 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 95 1.510 1.042 1.129 4.046 0.201 0.902 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.213 0.320 0.489 1.139 0.033 0.089 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 95 1.529 1.080 1.143 3.996 0.196 0.937 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.340 0.290 0.782 1.898 0.050 0.019 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.161 0.444 0.018 2.335 0.158 0.648 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 1.317 0.981 0.786 3.009 0.172 0.928 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.658 1.271 1.568 4.907 0.222 0.947 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.877 1.447 1.937 6.501 0.275 0.962 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.778 0.162 0.012 -0.961 2.921 0.343 0.975 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.343 SERIES 044011 AND 044047 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.975 SERIES 044013 AND 044017 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.606 0.561 0.401 0.540 0.716 0.654 0.466 SDEV 0.250 0.210 0.304 0.290 0.189 0.339 0.425 SERR 0.018 0.015 0.022 0.021 0.014 0.025 0.031 EPS 0.969 0.962 0.931 0.959 0.981 0.974 0.946 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 1.493 0.977 1.222 3.940 0.146 0.942 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.772 0.221 0.218 16 81 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.35 1.00 1.05 1.40 4.01 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 96. 0. 94. 96. 96. 97. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.933 0.889 0.859 0.831 0.772 0.711 0.661 0.627 0.571 0.531 PACF 0.933 0.143 0.120 0.040 -0.225 -0.142 -0.018 0.097 -0.087 0.116 95% C.L. 0.203 0.336 0.422 0.489 0.544 0.587 0.622 0.650 0.675 0.694 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.898 0.947 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 044011 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 044013 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 044015 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 044017 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 044021 1 4.04611921 0.02549482 0.00000000 0.10398608 6 044023 1 4.50096273 0.03975330 0.00000000 0.45953351 7 044025 1 3.30062103 0.05091815 0.00000000 0.98428684 8 044027 1 3.38469553 0.04313397 0.00000000 0.55590892 9 044031 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 044033 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 044035 1 3.87785339 0.03616502 0.00000000 0.16020839 12 044037 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 044041 1 0.72315043 0.03178046 0.00000000 1.39873147 14 044043 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01315255 2.15527797 15 044045 1 1.27091968 0.02975852 0.00000000 0.95881087 16 044047 1 0.77320445 0.09582684 0.00000000 1.34739578 17 044051 1 4.18016338 0.04898124 0.00000000 0.30175209 18 044053 1 4.12854624 0.05434989 0.00000000 0.56369984 19 044055 1 4.05582142 0.05808401 0.00000000 0.55051529 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 044057 1 3.65372825 0.04003280 0.00000000 0.40195605 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.006 0.273 -0.208 3.707 0.164 0.704 2 044013 1899 1994 96 0.997 0.300 0.712 3.703 0.154 0.731 3 044015 1899 1994 96 1.009 0.301 0.384 3.489 0.164 0.711 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.018 0.343 0.823 4.255 0.173 0.709 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.016 0.558 1.025 4.452 0.241 0.830 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.005 0.426 0.885 4.490 0.221 0.780 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.001 0.441 0.364 3.205 0.273 0.787 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.475 0.745 3.682 0.248 0.799 9 044031 1899 1994 96 0.993 0.363 0.499 4.470 0.236 0.617 10 044033 1899 1994 96 0.968 0.424 1.227 5.715 0.217 0.714 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.006 0.475 0.853 4.073 0.261 0.705 12 044037 1899 1994 96 0.981 0.329 1.019 5.125 0.216 0.602 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.250 0.391 3.692 0.182 0.585 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.273 0.452 2.488 0.198 0.544 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.295 0.613 3.294 0.157 0.733 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.317 0.143 2.766 0.188 0.726 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.019 0.284 0.768 3.234 0.190 0.635 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.008 0.307 0.904 3.765 0.191 0.624 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.009 0.380 1.445 5.144 0.196 0.766 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.017 0.404 1.902 6.649 0.159 0.809 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.003 0.361 0.747 4.070 0.202 0.706 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.012 0.084 0.465 1.010 0.036 0.081 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.003 0.336 0.757 3.736 0.194 0.712 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.009 0.128 0.540 1.088 0.060 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.968 0.250 -0.208 2.488 0.154 0.544 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.297 0.421 3.392 0.169 0.629 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.009 0.425 0.961 4.480 0.229 0.773 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.019 0.558 1.902 6.649 0.273 0.830 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 044011 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 044013 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 044015 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 044017 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 044021 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 044023 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 044025 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 044027 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 044031 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 044033 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 044035 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 044037 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 044041 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 044043 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 044045 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 044047 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 044051 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 044053 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 044055 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 044057 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 0.998 0.263 0.010 4.126 0.163 0.688 2 044013 1899 1994 96 0.994 0.252 0.445 4.079 0.153 0.670 3 044015 1899 1994 96 0.994 0.259 0.125 3.822 0.164 0.647 4 044017 1899 1994 96 0.995 0.298 0.462 3.802 0.172 0.700 5 044021 1899 1994 96 0.959 0.392 0.391 3.168 0.239 0.734 6 044023 1899 1994 96 0.980 0.338 0.464 3.364 0.220 0.677 7 044025 1899 1994 96 0.982 0.367 0.089 3.623 0.272 0.672 8 044027 1899 1994 96 0.971 0.377 0.422 3.309 0.246 0.702 9 044031 1899 1994 96 0.986 0.288 -0.516 3.595 0.234 0.526 10 044033 1899 1994 96 0.976 0.343 0.724 3.879 0.216 0.653 11 044035 1899 1994 96 0.972 0.364 0.190 2.982 0.261 0.612 12 044037 1899 1994 96 0.991 0.283 0.408 3.304 0.215 0.525 13 044041 1900 1994 95 0.998 0.244 0.560 4.007 0.182 0.557 14 044043 1901 1994 94 0.995 0.248 0.397 2.514 0.198 0.466 15 044045 1900 1994 95 0.993 0.258 0.409 2.880 0.156 0.668 16 044047 1900 1994 95 0.992 0.288 0.211 2.929 0.187 0.677 17 044051 1899 1994 96 0.997 0.212 0.130 2.738 0.190 0.337 18 044053 1899 1994 96 0.996 0.217 0.657 3.819 0.190 0.311 19 044055 1899 1994 96 0.994 0.197 0.447 4.454 0.196 0.158 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 0.991 0.187 0.734 5.008 0.158 0.281 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 0.988 0.284 0.338 3.570 0.201 0.563 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.011 0.062 0.287 0.619 0.036 0.167 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 0.992 0.273 0.408 3.609 0.193 0.650 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.014 0.094 0.303 0.868 0.059 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.959 0.187 -0.516 2.514 0.153 0.158 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.981 0.246 0.160 3.075 0.168 0.496 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 0.995 0.341 0.463 3.943 0.227 0.677 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 0.998 0.392 0.734 5.008 0.272 0.734 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.517 0.167 0.012 0.066 2.591 0.114 0.903 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.114 SERIES 044011 AND 044041 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.903 SERIES 044021 AND 044027 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.440 0.465 0.494 0.511 0.591 0.624 0.514 SDEV 0.245 0.223 0.278 0.216 0.208 0.236 0.275 SERR 0.018 0.016 0.020 0.016 0.015 0.017 0.020 EPS 0.940 0.946 0.951 0.954 0.967 0.971 0.955 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 0.978 0.211 0.063 3.527 0.143 0.651 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.233 0.070 0.125 19 78 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.34 1.01 1.06 1.39 1.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.00 0.88 0.93 0.99 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.644 0.398 0.242 0.251 0.202 0.143 0.077 0.080 0.039 -0.053 PACF 0.644 -0.029 -0.005 0.179 -0.044 -0.018 -0.013 0.045 -0.069 -0.123 95% C.L. 0.203 0.275 0.297 0.305 0.314 0.319 0.322 0.323 0.323 0.324 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.418 0.647 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.643 0.409 0.260 0.262 0.218 0.171 0.114 0.109 0.048 -0.049 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.643 2 0.647 -0.007 3 0.647 -0.007 0.000 4 0.647 -0.006 -0.105 0.163 5 0.650 -0.008 -0.105 0.176 -0.020 6 0.650 -0.008 -0.105 0.176 -0.019 -0.001 7 0.650 -0.008 -0.104 0.175 -0.019 0.004 -0.009 8 0.651 -0.008 -0.103 0.169 -0.015 0.005 -0.033 0.037 9 0.654 -0.011 -0.103 0.167 -0.001 -0.004 -0.033 0.092 -0.085 10 0.643 0.000 -0.107 0.167 -0.001 0.017 -0.046 0.091 -0.004 -0.124 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 724.07 674.37 676.37 678.37 677.75 679.71 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 681.71 683.70 685.57 686.87 687.37 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.643 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 41.32 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 170.40 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.643 0.413 0.266 0.171 0.110 0.071 0.045 0.029 0.019 0.0120 0.008 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 044011 1 0.559 0.729 2 044013 1 0.522 0.709 3 044015 1 0.474 0.682 4 044017 1 0.588 0.746 5 044021 1 0.574 0.743 6 044023 1 0.471 0.686 7 044025 1 0.466 0.680 8 044027 1 0.509 0.713 9 044031 1 0.343 0.544 10 044033 1 0.477 0.690 11 044035 1 0.414 0.627 12 044037 1 0.306 0.546 13 044041 1 0.322 0.566 14 044043 1 0.222 0.467 15 044045 1 0.452 0.672 16 044047 1 0.464 0.681 17 044051 1 0.118 0.339 18 044053 1 0.101 0.317 19 044055 1 0.026 0.160 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 044057 1 0.082 0.284 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.375 0.579 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.177 0.175 MEDIAN 1 0.458 0.676 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.229 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.026 0.160 LOWER HINGE 1 0.264 0.506 UPPER HINGE 1 0.493 0.700 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.588 0.746 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.175 0.204 3.154 0.189 0.135 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.173 0.357 3.089 0.188 0.103 3 044015 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.185 0.362 3.181 0.209 0.049 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.193 0.492 3.330 0.204 0.169 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.261 0.616 4.593 0.294 -0.174 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.244 0.451 4.046 0.275 0.002 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.268 -0.386 4.767 0.317 -0.065 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.263 0.121 3.991 0.296 -0.043 9 044031 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.240 -0.059 4.082 0.269 -0.139 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.246 0.165 5.254 0.273 -0.005 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.282 0.622 4.607 0.313 -0.121 12 044037 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.236 -0.067 3.888 0.265 -0.051 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.200 0.411 3.396 0.220 0.021 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.219 0.162 2.922 0.243 0.033 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.191 0.023 3.446 0.216 0.012 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.210 0.242 3.290 0.238 0.005 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.199 0.286 2.918 0.220 -0.021 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.206 0.979 4.662 0.216 -0.004 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.195 0.555 4.365 0.206 -0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.179 1.091 6.909 0.177 0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.000 0.218 0.331 3.995 0.241 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.000 0.034 0.349 0.976 0.043 0.084 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.208 0.321 3.939 0.229 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.000 0.054 0.382 1.364 0.067 0.074 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.173 -0.386 2.918 0.177 -0.174 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.192 0.141 3.236 0.207 -0.047 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.245 0.524 4.600 0.274 0.027 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.282 1.091 6.909 0.317 0.169 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.473 0.140 0.010 0.673 2.983 0.203 0.813 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.203 SERIES 044017 AND 044055 96 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.813 SERIES 044025 AND 044027 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.513 0.528 0.542 0.605 0.608 0.498 0.337 SDEV 0.163 0.168 0.183 0.150 0.143 0.172 0.276 SERR 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.011 0.010 0.012 0.020 EPS 0.955 0.957 0.959 0.968 0.969 0.952 0.910 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 0.995 0.152 0.009 4.635 0.165 0.071 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.295 0.104 0.049 19 78 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.28 1.01 1.07 1.35 1.69 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.00 0.87 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.071 -0.022 -0.105 0.094 0.092 0.042 -0.035 0.087 0.079 -0.108 PACF 0.071 -0.028 -0.102 0.110 0.074 0.023 -0.016 0.102 0.058 -0.141 95% C.L. 0.203 0.204 0.204 0.206 0.208 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.212 0.213 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 -0.020 -0.111 0.096 0.083 0.038 -0.044 0.085 0.081 -0.116 PACF 0.002 -0.020 -0.111 0.097 0.079 0.030 -0.021 0.097 0.075 -0.140 95% C.L. 0.203 0.203 0.203 0.206 0.207 0.209 0.209 0.210 0.211 0.212 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 0.991 0.197 0.086 3.362 0.131 0.642 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.635 0.390 0.239 0.248 0.219 0.159 0.100 0.111 0.071 -0.034 PACF 0.635 -0.023 0.001 0.171 -0.006 -0.028 0.000 0.065 -0.069 -0.139 95% C.L. 0.203 0.273 0.295 0.303 0.311 0.317 0.321 0.322 0.324 0.324 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.409 0.640 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.74 MINUTES