RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM051I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM051I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 044 1 Villingen-S. (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_EARLY ABAL - 044 2 Germany silver fir, European fir 880 4802-821 1898 1994 - 044 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 044021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 044023 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 044027 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 044031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 044033 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 044035 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1980 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 044037 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 4 GAPS / 1972 1972 / 1974 1974 / 1976 1978 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 3.002 0.388 2.577 12.040 0.056 0.733 2 044013 1899 1994 96 2.963 0.340 2.215 9.155 0.063 0.650 3 044015 1899 1994 96 2.907 0.368 2.190 10.487 0.058 0.717 4 044017 1899 1994 96 3.006 0.342 2.716 13.566 0.060 0.648 5 044021 1899 1994 96 2.724 0.316 2.515 11.201 0.069 0.632 6 044023 1899 1994 96 2.938 0.324 1.802 8.709 0.073 0.515 7 044025 1899 1994 96 2.810 0.424 2.877 12.686 0.081 0.373 8 044027 1899 1994 96 2.970 0.376 1.975 7.916 0.069 0.633 9 044031 1899 1994 96 3.335 0.324 1.643 7.645 0.064 0.444 10 044033 1899 1994 96 3.490 0.373 1.986 9.222 0.072 0.471 11 044035 1899 1994 96 3.446 0.406 2.413 12.978 0.069 0.459 12 044037 1899 1994 96 3.359 0.454 0.752 4.006 0.068 0.654 13 044041 1900 1994 95 3.527 0.287 1.648 8.240 0.063 0.330 14 044043 1901 1994 94 3.528 0.343 1.751 7.434 0.067 0.549 15 044045 1900 1994 95 3.575 0.282 1.985 8.164 0.059 0.375 16 044047 1900 1994 95 3.376 0.336 0.819 3.342 0.067 0.560 17 044051 1899 1994 96 3.322 0.252 1.183 5.962 0.051 0.529 18 044053 1899 1994 96 3.210 0.243 0.796 4.236 0.050 0.584 19 044055 1899 1994 96 3.220 0.255 1.214 5.913 0.051 0.537 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 3.089 0.270 0.921 5.996 0.055 0.612 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1898 TO 1994 97 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 95 3.190 0.335 1.799 8.445 0.063 0.550 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.263 0.059 0.670 3.032 0.008 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 95 3.215 0.338 1.888 8.202 0.064 0.554 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.445 0.090 1.115 4.865 0.012 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 90 2.724 0.243 0.752 3.342 0.050 0.330 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 2.966 0.284 1.199 5.979 0.057 0.465 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 3.411 0.375 2.314 10.844 0.069 0.640 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 3.575 0.454 2.877 13.566 0.081 0.733 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.512 0.196 0.014 -0.652 3.257 -0.136 0.854 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.136 SERIES 044037 AND 044047 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.854 SERIES 044011 AND 044017 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.229 0.489 0.464 0.414 0.346 0.350 0.365 SDEV 0.287 0.204 0.204 0.236 0.262 0.246 0.220 SERR 0.021 0.015 0.015 0.017 0.019 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.856 0.950 0.945 0.934 0.914 0.915 0.920 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 3.194 0.261 2.873 12.852 0.043 0.692 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.143 0.047 0.209 9 88 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.09 0.45 1.01 1.05 1.50 5.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.06 0.00 0.85 0.91 0.96 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 96. 0. 94. 96. 96. 97. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.685 0.545 0.399 0.238 0.143 0.056 -0.003 -0.004 -0.045 -0.092 PACF 0.685 0.143 -0.037 -0.122 -0.013 -0.031 -0.017 0.054 -0.057 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.203 0.283 0.323 0.343 0.350 0.352 0.352 0.352 0.352 0.353 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.558 0.469 0.337 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 044011 1 2.18796134 0.17072286 0.00000000 2.87934446 2 044013 1 1.94747162 0.19231400 0.00000000 2.86745906 3 044015 1 2.38381577 0.24744545 0.00000000 2.81894946 4 044017 1 2.54907513 0.29071668 0.00000000 2.92744422 5 044021 1 2.28261733 0.30423608 0.00000000 2.66369700 6 044023 1 2.33953357 0.40765288 0.00000000 2.89280415 7 044025 1 2.18254280 0.24283752 0.00000000 2.72770333 8 044027 1 2.20388961 0.23253828 0.00000000 2.88890696 9 044031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00220540 3.24244618 10 044033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00211186 3.38728762 11 044035 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00113287 3.39015341 12 044037 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00847504 2.97635365 13 044041 1 1.64712274 0.27193898 0.00000000 3.47146678 14 044043 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035552 3.51087856 15 044045 1 2.07943439 0.40855095 0.00000000 3.53209829 16 044047 1 0.86430144 0.02661505 0.00000000 3.06551075 17 044051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00230806 3.21035075 18 044053 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00180941 3.12182689 19 044055 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00143082 3.15081358 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 044057 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00245148 2.96853733 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.069 0.188 2.875 0.055 0.504 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.069 0.985 4.093 0.061 0.313 3 044015 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.079 0.019 3.325 0.055 0.585 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.065 0.043 2.977 0.055 0.419 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.074 0.439 3.904 0.070 0.294 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.085 0.622 3.590 0.076 0.337 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.119 4.526 30.555 0.080 0.088 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.088 1.030 4.425 0.069 0.491 9 044031 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.100 1.963 8.670 0.065 0.526 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.106 2.469 11.243 0.071 0.444 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.117 2.734 14.793 0.068 0.442 12 044037 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.124 1.965 7.827 0.070 0.561 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.061 0.669 4.821 0.062 0.048 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.097 1.713 7.220 0.066 0.542 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.059 1.166 6.811 0.057 0.088 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.075 0.581 3.112 0.066 0.277 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.074 1.929 8.532 0.051 0.483 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.075 1.225 5.346 0.049 0.545 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.079 1.610 7.597 0.051 0.508 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.086 1.847 9.574 0.054 0.568 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.000 0.085 1.386 7.565 0.063 0.403 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.000 0.019 1.083 6.265 0.009 0.169 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.079 1.195 6.078 0.063 0.464 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.000 0.027 1.344 4.854 0.014 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.059 0.019 2.875 0.049 0.048 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.071 0.602 3.747 0.055 0.303 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.099 1.946 8.601 0.069 0.534 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.124 4.526 30.555 0.080 0.585 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 044011 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 044013 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 044015 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 044017 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 044021 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 044023 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 044025 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 044027 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 044031 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 044033 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 044035 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 044037 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 044041 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 044043 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 044045 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 044047 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 044051 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 044053 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 044055 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 044057 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.053 0.323 3.057 0.055 0.158 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.066 0.861 3.871 0.061 0.245 3 044015 1899 1994 96 0.999 0.062 0.332 3.910 0.054 0.353 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.061 0.147 3.068 0.055 0.348 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.068 0.578 4.055 0.070 0.162 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.076 0.583 3.798 0.076 0.193 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.117 4.738 32.260 0.080 0.057 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.082 0.952 4.406 0.069 0.418 9 044031 1899 1994 96 0.999 0.083 1.080 5.220 0.064 0.425 10 044033 1899 1994 96 0.999 0.085 1.559 8.175 0.070 0.279 11 044035 1899 1994 96 0.999 0.096 1.633 9.009 0.067 0.335 12 044037 1899 1994 96 0.999 0.084 1.142 5.113 0.069 0.251 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.059 0.942 5.737 0.062 -0.026 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.070 1.384 6.423 0.066 0.185 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.058 1.161 6.602 0.057 0.051 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.073 0.558 3.257 0.066 0.230 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.066 1.802 7.840 0.051 0.398 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.061 1.295 5.866 0.049 0.370 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.072 1.140 5.743 0.050 0.467 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 0.999 0.072 1.393 7.402 0.054 0.454 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.000 0.073 1.180 6.741 0.062 0.268 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.000 0.015 0.955 6.260 0.009 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.071 1.110 5.478 0.063 0.265 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.000 0.021 0.808 3.111 0.015 0.211 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.999 0.053 0.147 3.057 0.049 -0.026 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.999 0.062 0.581 3.891 0.055 0.173 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.083 1.389 7.002 0.069 0.384 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.117 4.738 32.260 0.080 0.467 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.372 0.155 0.011 0.698 3.020 0.075 0.778 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.075 SERIES 044025 AND 044041 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.778 SERIES 044031 AND 044033 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.302 0.509 0.479 0.452 0.355 0.345 0.382 SDEV 0.270 0.189 0.191 0.199 0.236 0.216 0.221 SERR 0.020 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.017 0.016 0.016 EPS 0.896 0.954 0.948 0.943 0.917 0.913 0.925 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.049 1.452 6.128 0.041 0.254 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.374 0.153 -0.099 20 77 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.71 1.04 1.18 1.89 3.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.252 0.253 0.157 0.007 -0.003 -0.087 -0.135 -0.012 -0.082 -0.056 PACF 0.252 0.202 0.062 -0.097 -0.037 -0.079 -0.093 0.080 -0.029 -0.034 95% C.L. 0.203 0.216 0.227 0.232 0.232 0.232 0.233 0.236 0.236 0.238 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.130 0.198 0.241 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.196 0.265 0.139 -0.051 -0.027 -0.073 -0.129 -0.001 -0.067 -0.093 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.196 2 0.150 0.236 3 0.136 0.227 0.058 4 0.145 0.263 0.079 -0.156 5 0.137 0.267 0.093 -0.149 -0.052 6 0.136 0.264 0.095 -0.143 -0.049 -0.021 7 0.135 0.260 0.083 -0.136 -0.028 -0.011 -0.079 8 0.139 0.260 0.085 -0.127 -0.033 -0.026 -0.088 0.060 9 0.141 0.259 0.085 -0.128 -0.036 -0.025 -0.082 0.063 -0.020 10 0.139 0.265 0.077 -0.131 -0.039 -0.037 -0.074 0.088 -0.006 -0.098 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 429.44 427.62 424.07 425.75 425.35 427.08 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 429.04 430.42 432.07 434.03 435.10 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.150 0.236 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 9.20 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 110.14 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.150 0.258 0.074 0.072 0.028 0.021 0.010 0.006 0.003 0.0020 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 044011 2 0.061 0.136 0.145 2 044013 2 0.099 0.197 0.199 3 044015 2 0.130 0.351 0.008 4 044017 2 0.126 0.334 0.043 5 044021 2 0.111 0.116 0.289 6 044023 2 0.158 0.132 0.319 7 044025 2 0.118 0.039 0.324 8 044027 2 0.213 0.338 0.201 9 044031 2 0.239 0.378 0.181 10 044033 2 0.202 0.204 0.328 11 044035 2 0.268 0.241 0.372 12 044037 2 0.187 0.174 0.349 13 044041 2 0.001 -0.026 -0.012 14 044043 2 0.043 0.195 -0.046 15 044045 2 0.010 0.047 0.085 16 044047 2 0.057 0.218 0.060 17 044051 2 0.208 0.405 0.019 18 044053 2 0.169 0.378 0.061 19 044055 2 0.269 0.471 0.084 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 044057 2 0.255 0.483 -0.013 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.146 0.241 0.150 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.084 0.146 0.140 MEDIAN 2 0.144 0.211 0.115 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.131 0.230 0.273 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.001 -0.026 -0.046 LOWER HINGE 2 0.080 0.134 0.031 UPPER HINGE 2 0.211 0.364 0.304 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.269 0.483 0.372 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.051 0.376 3.119 0.059 -0.019 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.062 0.731 3.744 0.068 -0.004 3 044015 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.058 0.622 4.221 0.061 0.001 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.057 0.046 2.944 0.065 -0.002 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.064 0.379 3.641 0.073 -0.018 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.071 0.402 3.197 0.080 -0.049 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.110 5.360 41.661 0.079 0.033 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.073 0.537 3.921 0.082 0.003 9 044031 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.071 0.702 4.628 0.077 -0.039 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.075 1.858 9.784 0.079 -0.066 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.079 2.007 8.701 0.076 -0.070 12 044037 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.075 1.331 6.670 0.071 -0.035 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.059 0.950 5.741 0.061 0.000 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.069 1.371 6.773 0.072 -0.005 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.058 1.220 6.854 0.057 0.002 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.071 0.554 3.699 0.073 -0.001 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.060 1.527 7.515 0.062 -0.019 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.055 0.498 5.479 0.059 -0.030 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.060 0.275 4.964 0.065 -0.048 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.063 0.738 4.992 0.066 -0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.000 0.067 1.074 7.112 0.069 -0.019 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.000 0.013 1.143 8.354 0.008 0.026 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.063 0.716 4.978 0.070 -0.014 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.000 0.014 0.901 3.092 0.015 0.036 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.051 0.046 2.944 0.057 -0.070 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.058 0.450 3.722 0.061 -0.037 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.072 1.351 6.814 0.076 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.110 5.360 41.661 0.082 0.033 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.375 0.127 0.009 0.729 3.159 0.135 0.710 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.135 SERIES 044025 AND 044041 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.710 SERIES 044045 AND 044047 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.326 0.590 0.528 0.466 0.432 0.334 0.331 SDEV 0.220 0.141 0.174 0.186 0.185 0.208 0.219 SERR 0.016 0.010 0.013 0.014 0.013 0.015 0.016 EPS 0.906 0.966 0.957 0.946 0.938 0.909 0.908 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.044 1.063 6.153 0.045 -0.065 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.298 0.117 -0.069 27 70 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.68 1.00 1.13 1.81 3.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.00 0.86 0.91 0.98 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.064 0.022 0.100 -0.086 0.010 -0.068 -0.132 0.067 -0.052 -0.030 PACF -0.064 0.018 0.103 -0.075 -0.004 -0.075 -0.127 0.050 -0.026 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.203 0.204 0.204 0.206 0.207 0.208 0.208 0.212 0.213 0.213 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.011 0.098 -0.079 0.001 -0.076 -0.132 0.058 -0.052 -0.016 PACF 0.000 0.011 0.098 -0.080 -0.001 -0.085 -0.119 0.055 -0.036 -0.004 95% C.L. 0.203 0.203 0.203 0.205 0.206 0.206 0.207 0.211 0.212 0.212 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.012 0.000 0.012 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.047 1.381 6.200 0.041 0.238 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.236 0.270 0.160 -0.002 -0.003 -0.082 -0.132 -0.009 -0.060 -0.070 PACF 0.236 0.227 0.064 -0.114 -0.042 -0.066 -0.090 0.078 0.001 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.203 0.214 0.228 0.232 0.232 0.232 0.233 0.237 0.237 0.237 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.134 0.179 0.265 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES