RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM051L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM051L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 044 1 Villingen-S. (D), EU-Pr. WIDTH_LATE ABAL - 044 2 Germany silver fir, European fir 880 4802-821 1898 1994 - 044 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 044021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 044023 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 044027 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 044031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 044033 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 044035 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1980 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 044037 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 4 GAPS / 1972 1972 / 1974 1974 / 1976 1978 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 0.381 0.249 0.884 2.905 0.278 0.780 2 044013 1899 1994 96 0.422 0.272 0.818 3.254 0.267 0.804 3 044015 1899 1994 96 0.390 0.211 0.363 2.301 0.278 0.752 4 044017 1899 1994 96 0.313 0.191 0.828 2.802 0.263 0.772 5 044021 1899 1994 96 0.426 0.196 0.180 2.574 0.325 0.591 6 044023 1899 1994 96 0.477 0.165 0.300 2.634 0.333 0.271 7 044025 1899 1994 96 0.384 0.153 0.601 4.424 0.328 0.491 8 044027 1899 1994 96 0.391 0.161 0.744 3.043 0.275 0.664 9 044031 1899 1994 96 0.367 0.220 0.816 3.274 0.304 0.731 10 044033 1899 1994 96 0.545 0.310 0.098 2.114 0.334 0.660 11 044035 1899 1994 96 0.294 0.182 1.175 5.294 0.284 0.823 12 044037 1899 1994 96 0.264 0.180 1.116 3.903 0.286 0.834 13 044041 1900 1994 95 0.503 0.162 0.818 3.467 0.263 0.485 14 044043 1901 1994 94 0.499 0.144 1.137 4.260 0.276 0.154 15 044045 1900 1994 95 0.361 0.105 1.297 5.227 0.258 0.321 16 044047 1900 1994 95 0.413 0.158 1.284 5.307 0.273 0.589 17 044051 1899 1994 96 0.420 0.152 0.689 3.270 0.280 0.578 18 044053 1899 1994 96 0.469 0.162 1.076 4.258 0.261 0.584 19 044055 1899 1994 96 0.372 0.161 1.948 10.652 0.277 0.571 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 0.357 0.154 1.890 9.361 0.268 0.419 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1898 TO 1994 97 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 95 0.402 0.184 0.903 4.216 0.285 0.594 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.072 0.048 0.491 2.213 0.025 0.192 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 95 0.390 0.163 0.823 3.370 0.278 0.590 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.084 0.048 0.511 1.972 0.028 0.274 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.264 0.105 0.098 2.114 0.258 0.154 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 0.364 0.156 0.645 2.854 0.267 0.488 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 0.448 0.204 1.156 4.825 0.295 0.762 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 0.545 0.310 1.948 10.652 0.334 0.834 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.365 0.259 0.019 -0.469 3.139 -0.309 0.880 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.309 SERIES 044037 AND 044041 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.880 SERIES 044031 AND 044035 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.344 0.400 0.424 0.524 0.390 0.396 0.480 SDEV 0.275 0.239 0.276 0.195 0.265 0.352 0.279 SERR 0.020 0.017 0.020 0.014 0.019 0.026 0.020 EPS 0.913 0.930 0.936 0.957 0.927 0.929 0.949 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 0.390 0.118 0.103 2.784 0.207 0.711 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.385 0.176 0.089 28 69 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.34 1.01 1.09 1.43 4.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 96. 0. 94. 96. 96. 97. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.703 0.644 0.559 0.521 0.492 0.435 0.388 0.327 0.219 0.178 PACF 0.703 0.296 0.069 0.084 0.078 -0.016 -0.019 -0.047 -0.169 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.203 0.286 0.341 0.377 0.406 0.429 0.447 0.461 0.470 0.475 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.544 0.507 0.284 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 044011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00669133 0.70567542 2 044013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00633064 0.72859865 3 044015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00561469 0.66220832 4 044017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00481450 0.54652411 5 044021 1 0.42019215 0.00741114 0.00000000 0.11857130 6 044023 1 0.21671943 0.01218360 0.00000000 0.34298238 7 044025 1 0.14610836 0.08269337 0.00000000 0.36610213 8 044027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00108302 0.33614779 9 044031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00624996 0.66079557 10 044033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00443934 0.75591171 11 044035 1 0.54356205 0.01996160 0.00000000 0.05002139 12 044037 1 0.59205019 0.02950461 0.00000000 0.05657685 13 044041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00274454 0.37120941 14 044043 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042466 0.51953328 15 044045 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019919 0.37061366 16 044047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00245619 0.29505038 17 044051 1 0.28061306 0.03490286 0.00000000 0.34059212 18 044053 1 0.24041989 0.04083234 0.00000000 0.41047794 19 044055 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031199 0.35695174 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 044057 1 0.18217367 0.06111720 0.00000000 0.32687810 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.037 0.472 1.012 3.865 0.276 0.589 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.010 0.575 1.565 5.457 0.266 0.749 3 044015 1899 1994 96 0.993 0.371 0.408 2.771 0.275 0.527 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.425 0.991 3.448 0.261 0.619 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.485 0.428 2.754 0.319 0.657 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.354 0.341 2.697 0.336 0.378 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.396 0.729 5.122 0.325 0.466 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.001 0.399 0.519 2.700 0.281 0.662 9 044031 1899 1994 96 1.071 0.652 2.459 9.834 0.310 0.703 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.005 0.660 1.409 5.401 0.334 0.710 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.002 0.529 1.204 4.650 0.288 0.674 12 044037 1899 1994 96 1.012 0.637 3.016 14.072 0.287 0.681 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.001 0.278 0.341 2.526 0.261 0.335 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.289 1.181 4.361 0.273 0.148 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.289 1.285 5.172 0.255 0.319 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.002 0.316 0.269 3.540 0.270 0.460 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.330 0.781 3.477 0.277 0.469 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.310 0.617 3.248 0.258 0.458 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.435 2.149 12.382 0.274 0.557 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.432 2.464 13.331 0.265 0.389 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.007 0.432 1.158 5.540 0.285 0.528 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.018 0.124 0.807 3.718 0.026 0.160 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.412 1.002 4.113 0.275 0.542 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.003 0.184 1.013 2.420 0.034 0.244 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.993 0.278 0.269 2.526 0.255 0.148 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.323 0.473 3.009 0.265 0.424 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.003 0.507 1.487 5.429 0.299 0.668 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.071 0.660 3.016 14.072 0.336 0.749 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 044011 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 044013 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 044015 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 044017 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 044021 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 044023 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 044025 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 044027 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 044031 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 044033 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 044035 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 044037 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 044041 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 044043 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 044045 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 044047 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 044051 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 044053 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 044055 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 044057 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 0.990 0.386 0.953 4.204 0.274 0.506 2 044013 1899 1994 96 0.966 0.415 1.509 6.274 0.264 0.623 3 044015 1899 1994 96 0.988 0.330 0.624 3.280 0.273 0.436 4 044017 1899 1994 96 0.987 0.369 0.729 2.967 0.259 0.518 5 044021 1899 1994 96 0.972 0.402 0.277 2.771 0.320 0.593 6 044023 1899 1994 96 0.995 0.337 0.374 2.839 0.335 0.308 7 044025 1899 1994 96 0.993 0.358 0.335 3.884 0.325 0.377 8 044027 1899 1994 96 0.992 0.355 0.451 3.015 0.280 0.557 9 044031 1899 1994 96 0.981 0.376 0.066 2.248 0.309 0.531 10 044033 1899 1994 96 0.946 0.456 0.222 2.468 0.328 0.607 11 044035 1899 1994 96 0.968 0.402 0.581 3.162 0.288 0.591 12 044037 1899 1994 96 0.973 0.389 0.688 3.447 0.285 0.583 13 044041 1900 1994 95 0.999 0.269 0.261 2.502 0.260 0.291 14 044043 1901 1994 94 0.999 0.283 1.217 4.653 0.273 0.102 15 044045 1900 1994 95 0.998 0.272 1.182 4.934 0.255 0.225 16 044047 1900 1994 95 0.995 0.291 0.128 3.385 0.270 0.386 17 044051 1899 1994 96 0.995 0.290 0.636 3.330 0.278 0.323 18 044053 1899 1994 96 0.997 0.275 0.667 4.201 0.258 0.314 19 044055 1899 1994 96 0.995 0.291 1.569 9.918 0.275 0.179 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 0.989 0.282 1.060 4.432 0.265 0.124 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 0.986 0.341 0.677 3.896 0.284 0.409 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.014 0.057 0.444 1.724 0.025 0.169 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 0.991 0.346 0.630 3.357 0.274 0.411 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.018 0.101 0.700 1.415 0.034 0.270 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.946 0.269 0.066 2.248 0.255 0.102 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.977 0.286 0.306 2.903 0.265 0.300 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 0.995 0.388 1.007 4.318 0.298 0.570 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 0.999 0.456 1.569 9.918 0.335 0.623 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.398 0.164 0.012 0.162 2.537 0.037 0.824 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.037 SERIES 044021 AND 044053 96 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.824 SERIES 044031 AND 044033 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.373 0.395 0.492 0.506 0.375 0.446 0.433 SDEV 0.223 0.244 0.245 0.168 0.220 0.262 0.234 SERR 0.016 0.018 0.018 0.012 0.016 0.019 0.017 EPS 0.923 0.929 0.951 0.953 0.923 0.941 0.939 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 0.972 0.224 0.029 3.029 0.201 0.491 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.433 0.170 0.089 29 68 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.26 1.02 1.08 1.34 4.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.486 0.363 0.238 0.180 0.172 0.073 0.036 0.047 -0.129 -0.165 PACF 0.486 0.166 0.014 0.026 0.065 -0.073 -0.028 0.044 -0.220 -0.091 95% C.L. 0.203 0.246 0.268 0.276 0.281 0.285 0.286 0.286 0.287 0.289 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.259 0.410 0.162 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.487 0.388 0.250 0.183 0.174 0.064 0.030 0.040 -0.137 -0.172 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.487 2 0.391 0.197 3 0.390 0.196 0.003 4 0.390 0.194 -0.001 0.011 5 0.389 0.194 -0.014 -0.015 0.067 6 0.395 0.193 -0.016 0.002 0.100 -0.085 7 0.392 0.196 -0.016 0.001 0.106 -0.073 -0.032 8 0.394 0.200 -0.021 0.001 0.107 -0.082 -0.051 0.049 9 0.405 0.188 -0.039 0.025 0.107 -0.087 -0.007 0.137 -0.223 10 0.382 0.202 -0.040 0.016 0.118 -0.084 -0.011 0.156 -0.182 -0.102 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 736.14 711.93 710.07 712.07 714.06 715.62 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 716.92 718.82 720.58 717.63 718.62 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.391 0.197 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 26.66 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 136.34 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.391 0.350 0.214 0.153 0.102 0.070 0.047 0.032 0.022 0.0150 0.010 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 044011 2 0.313 0.400 0.228 2 044013 2 0.399 0.611 0.029 3 044015 2 0.204 0.396 0.103 4 044017 2 0.357 0.375 0.305 5 044021 2 0.376 0.515 0.136 6 044023 2 0.107 0.279 0.096 7 044025 2 0.195 0.309 0.185 8 044027 2 0.324 0.495 0.115 9 044031 2 0.331 0.430 0.212 10 044033 2 0.436 0.456 0.264 11 044035 2 0.376 0.537 0.113 12 044037 2 0.437 0.420 0.315 13 044041 2 0.132 0.235 0.210 14 044043 2 0.040 0.094 0.090 15 044045 2 0.092 0.182 0.204 16 044047 2 0.219 0.283 0.273 17 044051 2 0.117 0.332 -0.021 18 044053 2 0.130 0.272 0.139 19 044055 2 0.037 0.193 -0.068 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 044057 2 0.020 0.139 -0.053 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.232 0.348 0.144 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.142 0.140 0.113 MEDIAN 2 0.211 0.353 0.138 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.254 0.189 0.127 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.020 0.094 -0.068 LOWER HINGE 2 0.112 0.254 0.093 UPPER HINGE 2 0.366 0.443 0.220 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.437 0.611 0.315 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.001 0.317 0.271 4.066 0.337 0.019 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.321 1.283 6.155 0.330 -0.007 3 044015 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.293 0.857 4.212 0.319 -0.003 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.294 0.241 3.343 0.310 -0.011 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.320 0.557 2.343 0.367 -0.015 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.319 0.461 2.879 0.373 -0.006 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.325 0.620 3.919 0.370 -0.033 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.292 0.235 2.455 0.327 0.004 9 044031 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.307 0.351 2.302 0.353 -0.010 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.344 0.653 3.302 0.373 -0.027 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.318 1.025 4.484 0.358 0.002 12 044037 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.290 0.372 3.030 0.337 0.013 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.251 0.192 2.650 0.284 0.019 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.280 1.257 4.940 0.288 0.015 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.259 1.075 4.940 0.276 0.005 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.258 0.350 2.869 0.292 0.024 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.274 0.739 3.722 0.314 -0.003 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.258 0.711 4.368 0.289 0.013 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.286 1.721 10.698 0.288 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.279 1.118 4.749 0.276 0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.000 0.294 0.704 4.071 0.323 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.000 0.026 0.426 1.870 0.034 0.015 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.293 0.637 3.820 0.323 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.000 0.041 0.699 1.743 0.066 0.022 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.251 0.192 2.302 0.276 -0.033 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.277 0.351 2.874 0.289 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.318 1.050 4.616 0.355 0.013 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.001 0.344 1.721 10.698 0.373 0.024 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.373 0.136 0.010 0.273 2.459 0.079 0.714 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.079 SERIES 044025 AND 044057 96 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.714 SERIES 044031 AND 044033 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.425 0.468 0.490 0.527 0.402 0.356 0.377 SDEV 0.176 0.206 0.189 0.153 0.195 0.202 0.196 SERR 0.013 0.015 0.014 0.011 0.014 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.937 0.946 0.950 0.957 0.931 0.917 0.924 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 0.989 0.186 0.102 2.736 0.221 0.009 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.503 0.213 0.009 26 71 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.54 1.02 1.08 1.61 5.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.00 0.88 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.009 0.002 0.005 0.021 0.114 -0.009 0.013 0.130 -0.154 -0.150 PACF 0.009 0.001 0.005 0.021 0.114 -0.011 0.012 0.130 -0.165 -0.167 95% C.L. 0.203 0.203 0.203 0.203 0.203 0.206 0.206 0.206 0.209 0.214 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.020 0.114 -0.010 0.012 0.131 -0.154 -0.148 PACF 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.020 0.114 -0.010 0.012 0.132 -0.163 -0.167 95% C.L. 0.203 0.203 0.203 0.203 0.203 0.206 0.206 0.206 0.209 0.214 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 0.987 0.220 0.041 3.199 0.189 0.507 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.502 0.413 0.290 0.228 0.211 0.105 0.054 0.044 -0.142 -0.179 PACF 0.502 0.216 0.027 0.024 0.063 -0.078 -0.048 0.023 -0.237 -0.104 95% C.L. 0.203 0.249 0.276 0.288 0.296 0.302 0.303 0.304 0.304 0.307 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.289 0.397 0.213 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.13 MINUTES