RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM051T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM051T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 044 1 Villingen-S. (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_LATE ABAL - 044 2 Germany silver fir, European fir 880 4802-821 1898 1994 - 044 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 044021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 044023 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 044027 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 044031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 044033 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 044035 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1980 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 044037 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 4 GAPS / 1972 1972 / 1974 1974 / 1976 1978 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 7.264 0.569 -0.087 2.911 0.072 0.305 2 044013 1899 1994 96 7.161 0.520 0.033 2.477 0.070 0.255 3 044015 1899 1994 96 7.058 0.656 -0.076 3.046 0.091 0.285 4 044017 1899 1994 96 7.178 0.570 -0.193 3.136 0.076 0.231 5 044021 1899 1994 96 6.192 0.520 0.013 2.803 0.089 0.163 6 044023 1899 1994 96 6.279 0.582 0.158 2.787 0.089 0.294 7 044025 1899 1994 96 6.317 0.615 -0.354 2.482 0.089 0.368 8 044027 1899 1994 96 6.489 0.607 -0.056 2.834 0.083 0.355 9 044031 1899 1994 96 7.454 0.647 -1.233 4.943 0.074 0.256 10 044033 1899 1994 96 7.410 0.578 0.015 3.540 0.080 0.239 11 044035 1899 1994 96 7.734 0.576 -0.627 3.914 0.066 0.394 12 044037 1899 1994 96 7.701 0.505 -0.339 3.169 0.056 0.282 13 044041 1900 1994 95 7.429 0.557 -0.160 2.585 0.067 0.343 14 044043 1901 1994 94 7.375 0.461 0.063 2.944 0.065 0.171 15 044045 1900 1994 95 7.662 0.425 -0.674 4.630 0.057 0.105 16 044047 1900 1994 95 7.389 0.579 -0.268 2.780 0.062 0.490 17 044051 1899 1994 96 6.819 0.532 -0.058 3.169 0.086 0.048 18 044053 1899 1994 96 6.891 0.534 -0.079 3.303 0.083 0.127 19 044055 1899 1994 96 6.909 0.538 0.147 2.636 0.086 0.081 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 6.890 0.525 -0.218 3.131 0.083 0.044 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1898 TO 1994 97 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 95 7.080 0.555 -0.199 3.161 0.076 0.242 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.475 0.056 0.330 0.659 0.011 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 95 7.170 0.563 -0.083 2.995 0.078 0.255 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.565 0.058 0.317 0.453 0.019 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 90 6.192 0.425 -1.233 2.477 0.056 0.044 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 6.855 0.523 -0.303 2.783 0.067 0.145 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 7.420 0.581 0.014 3.236 0.086 0.324 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 7.734 0.656 0.158 4.943 0.091 0.490 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.453 0.171 0.012 0.189 2.592 -0.018 0.851 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.018 SERIES 044033 AND 044047 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.851 SERIES 044053 AND 044057 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.625 0.652 0.660 0.620 0.596 0.461 0.439 SDEV 0.139 0.132 0.141 0.173 0.188 0.293 0.277 SERR 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.014 0.021 0.020 EPS 0.971 0.974 0.975 0.970 0.967 0.945 0.940 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 7.087 0.395 -0.025 2.660 0.063 -0.028 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.264 -0.110 1.411 11 86 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.33 1.01 1.09 1.42 3.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.04 0.00 0.86 0.91 0.99 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 96. 0. 94. 96. 96. 97. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.027 0.184 0.097 -0.034 0.070 -0.037 0.024 -0.097 -0.054 0.105 PACF -0.027 0.184 0.110 -0.064 0.029 -0.026 0.013 -0.101 -0.060 0.139 95% C.L. 0.203 0.203 0.210 0.212 0.212 0.213 0.213 0.213 0.215 0.216 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 044011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00707176 6.92118645 2 044013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00370639 6.98138618 3 044015 1 0.13277984 0.02505470 0.00000000 7.00800991 4 044017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049471 7.15392303 5 044021 1 1.21119142 0.25663316 0.00000000 6.14185858 6 044023 1 0.72378284 0.02781717 0.00000000 6.02231216 7 044025 1 1.50697732 0.01302289 0.00000000 5.46217823 8 044027 1 1.89542508 0.01056043 0.00000000 5.30031681 9 044031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00307239 7.56666040 10 044033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00652552 7.09357166 11 044035 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028425 7.73516941 12 044037 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00158630 7.57438993 13 044041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00940649 7.88066959 14 044043 1 0.73328996 0.05379683 0.00000000 7.23454571 15 044045 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00598292 7.94949627 16 044047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01234196 7.98178291 17 044051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00207874 6.91967344 18 044053 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00102069 6.84101772 19 044055 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00705195 7.25056124 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 044057 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00052927 6.91614056 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.073 -0.527 3.140 0.071 0.214 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.071 -0.010 2.281 0.069 0.221 3 044015 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.093 -0.048 3.026 0.090 0.278 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.079 -0.207 3.138 0.076 0.230 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.080 0.043 3.034 0.089 0.081 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.087 0.236 3.286 0.088 0.200 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.086 -0.018 2.679 0.088 0.171 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.077 0.048 4.473 0.084 0.071 9 044031 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.090 -0.990 3.934 0.076 0.498 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.074 -0.056 3.127 0.079 0.131 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.075 -0.586 3.760 0.066 0.427 12 044037 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.069 -0.309 2.865 0.056 0.479 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.067 -0.047 2.608 0.067 0.145 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.058 -0.004 2.558 0.065 0.017 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.052 -0.480 4.450 0.057 -0.048 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.064 0.022 2.587 0.062 0.173 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.078 -0.079 3.175 0.085 0.034 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.077 -0.064 3.288 0.082 0.123 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.072 0.068 2.992 0.085 -0.052 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.076 -0.219 3.143 0.082 0.045 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.000 0.075 -0.161 3.177 0.076 0.172 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.000 0.010 0.288 0.586 0.011 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.076 -0.052 3.132 0.077 0.158 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.000 0.010 0.273 0.515 0.019 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.052 -0.990 2.281 0.056 -0.052 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.070 -0.264 2.772 0.066 0.058 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.080 0.009 3.287 0.085 0.225 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.093 0.236 4.473 0.090 0.498 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 044011 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 044013 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 044015 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 044017 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 044021 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 044023 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 044025 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 044027 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 044031 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 044033 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 044035 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 044037 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 044041 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 044043 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 044045 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 044047 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 044051 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 044053 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 044055 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 044057 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.064 -0.584 3.876 0.071 -0.023 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.065 -0.015 2.616 0.069 0.058 3 044015 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.081 -0.106 2.895 0.090 0.074 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.074 -0.311 3.273 0.075 0.138 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.077 0.055 2.828 0.089 0.013 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.082 0.315 3.400 0.088 0.094 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.081 0.157 2.721 0.088 0.045 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.077 0.143 4.689 0.084 0.050 9 044031 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.080 -0.891 4.050 0.076 0.358 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.068 -0.153 3.205 0.079 -0.012 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.072 -0.518 3.384 0.066 0.369 12 044037 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.061 -0.216 2.898 0.055 0.333 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.064 0.004 2.968 0.067 0.067 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.056 0.053 2.576 0.064 -0.056 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.051 -0.488 4.363 0.057 -0.063 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.061 0.044 2.614 0.062 0.104 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.074 -0.110 3.211 0.085 -0.054 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.072 -0.197 3.330 0.082 -0.006 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.069 -0.037 2.835 0.085 -0.153 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.070 -0.310 3.229 0.082 -0.111 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.000 0.070 -0.158 3.248 0.076 0.061 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.000 0.009 0.292 0.590 0.011 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.071 -0.108 3.208 0.077 0.048 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.000 0.013 0.359 0.561 0.018 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.051 -0.891 2.576 0.055 -0.153 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.064 -0.311 2.832 0.066 -0.038 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.077 0.049 3.392 0.085 0.099 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.082 0.315 4.689 0.090 0.369 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.536 0.129 0.009 -0.014 2.735 0.251 0.850 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.251 SERIES 044023 AND 044037 96 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.850 SERIES 044053 AND 044055 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.638 0.660 0.695 0.631 0.609 0.481 0.462 SDEV 0.133 0.129 0.121 0.149 0.176 0.281 0.264 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.011 0.013 0.020 0.019 EPS 0.972 0.975 0.979 0.972 0.969 0.949 0.945 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 1.001 0.052 -0.064 2.888 0.061 -0.111 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.131 -0.041 0.087 31 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.16 1.00 1.07 1.22 2.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.110 0.111 0.009 -0.091 -0.019 -0.113 -0.047 -0.146 -0.132 0.042 PACF -0.110 0.100 0.032 -0.100 -0.044 -0.102 -0.062 -0.149 -0.169 0.012 95% C.L. 0.203 0.206 0.208 0.208 0.210 0.210 0.212 0.213 0.217 0.220 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.105 0.105 0.008 -0.102 0.005 -0.118 -0.025 -0.158 -0.127 0.046 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.105 2 -0.095 0.095 3 -0.098 0.098 0.029 4 -0.094 0.109 0.018 -0.110 5 -0.096 0.109 0.020 -0.112 -0.019 6 -0.098 0.098 0.022 -0.101 -0.029 -0.100 7 -0.103 0.097 0.018 -0.100 -0.025 -0.104 -0.043 8 -0.110 0.080 0.014 -0.116 -0.022 -0.089 -0.060 -0.160 9 -0.136 0.070 -0.001 -0.120 -0.041 -0.086 -0.047 -0.178 -0.164 10 -0.132 0.074 0.000 -0.118 -0.040 -0.084 -0.047 -0.179 -0.161 0.021 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 452.05 452.98 454.10 456.01 456.83 458.79 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 459.82 461.64 461.14 460.50 462.46 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 044011 0 0.001 2 044013 0 0.003 3 044015 0 0.006 4 044017 0 0.020 5 044021 0 0.000 6 044023 0 0.009 7 044025 0 0.002 8 044027 0 0.003 9 044031 0 0.128 10 044033 0 0.000 11 044035 0 0.137 12 044037 0 0.111 13 044041 0 0.005 14 044043 0 0.003 15 044045 0 0.004 16 044047 0 0.011 17 044051 0 0.003 18 044053 0 0.000 19 044055 0 0.024 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 044057 0 0.013 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.024 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.044 MEDIAN 0 0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.002 UPPER HINGE 0 0.016 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.137 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.064 -0.584 3.876 0.071 -0.023 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.065 -0.015 2.616 0.069 0.058 3 044015 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.081 -0.106 2.895 0.090 0.074 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.074 -0.311 3.273 0.075 0.138 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.077 0.055 2.828 0.089 0.013 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.082 0.315 3.400 0.088 0.094 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.081 0.157 2.721 0.088 0.045 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.077 0.143 4.689 0.084 0.050 9 044031 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.080 -0.891 4.050 0.076 0.358 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.068 -0.153 3.205 0.079 -0.012 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.072 -0.518 3.384 0.066 0.369 12 044037 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.061 -0.216 2.898 0.055 0.333 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.064 0.004 2.968 0.067 0.067 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.056 0.053 2.576 0.064 -0.056 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.051 -0.488 4.363 0.057 -0.063 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.061 0.044 2.614 0.062 0.104 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.074 -0.110 3.211 0.085 -0.054 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.072 -0.197 3.330 0.082 -0.006 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.069 -0.037 2.835 0.085 -0.153 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.070 -0.310 3.229 0.082 -0.111 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.000 0.070 -0.158 3.248 0.076 0.061 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.000 0.009 0.292 0.590 0.011 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.071 -0.108 3.208 0.077 0.048 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.000 0.013 0.359 0.561 0.018 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.051 -0.891 2.576 0.055 -0.153 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.064 -0.311 2.832 0.066 -0.038 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.077 0.049 3.392 0.085 0.099 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.082 0.315 4.689 0.090 0.369 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.536 0.129 0.009 -0.014 2.735 0.251 0.850 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.251 SERIES 044023 AND 044037 96 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.850 SERIES 044053 AND 044055 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.638 0.660 0.695 0.631 0.609 0.481 0.462 SDEV 0.133 0.129 0.121 0.149 0.176 0.281 0.264 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.011 0.013 0.020 0.019 EPS 0.972 0.975 0.979 0.972 0.969 0.949 0.945 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 1.001 0.052 -0.065 2.887 0.061 -0.111 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.130 -0.040 0.086 30 67 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.16 1.00 1.07 1.23 2.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.110 0.111 0.010 -0.091 -0.019 -0.113 -0.047 -0.146 -0.132 0.042 PACF -0.110 0.100 0.032 -0.101 -0.044 -0.102 -0.062 -0.149 -0.169 0.012 95% C.L. 0.203 0.206 0.208 0.208 0.210 0.210 0.212 0.213 0.217 0.220 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 1.001 0.052 -0.065 2.887 0.061 -0.111 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.110 0.111 0.010 -0.091 -0.019 -0.113 -0.047 -0.146 -0.132 0.042 PACF -0.110 0.100 0.032 -0.101 -0.044 -0.102 -0.062 -0.149 -0.169 0.012 95% C.L. 0.203 0.206 0.208 0.208 0.210 0.210 0.212 0.213 0.217 0.220 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES