RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM051W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM051W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 044 1 Villingen-S. (D), EU-Pr. WIDTH_RING ABAL - 044 2 Germany silver fir, European fir 880 4802-821 1898 1994 - 044 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 044021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 044023 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 044027 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 044031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 044033 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 044035 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1980 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 044037 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 4 GAPS / 1972 1972 / 1974 1974 / 1976 1978 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 2.174 1.648 0.976 3.247 0.159 0.950 2 044013 1899 1994 96 2.298 1.573 0.725 3.024 0.148 0.947 3 044015 1899 1994 96 2.220 1.591 1.301 4.897 0.162 0.943 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.991 1.519 1.214 4.296 0.155 0.944 5 044021 1899 1994 96 2.064 1.289 0.637 2.757 0.206 0.917 6 044023 1899 1994 96 2.108 1.377 1.781 6.151 0.196 0.937 7 044025 1899 1994 96 2.021 1.073 0.950 4.107 0.229 0.925 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.746 1.050 1.364 4.869 0.211 0.918 9 044031 1899 1994 96 1.895 1.382 0.785 2.782 0.195 0.938 10 044033 1899 1994 96 2.230 1.436 0.420 2.504 0.205 0.940 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.539 1.248 1.426 4.490 0.233 0.944 12 044037 1899 1994 96 1.554 1.363 1.124 3.118 0.202 0.966 13 044041 1900 1994 95 2.126 0.505 0.513 4.060 0.161 0.646 14 044043 1901 1994 94 2.030 0.605 0.433 2.503 0.177 0.719 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.737 0.553 0.598 3.313 0.141 0.809 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.841 0.557 0.061 2.965 0.162 0.775 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.581 1.149 1.440 3.653 0.179 0.944 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.799 1.148 1.576 4.218 0.180 0.938 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.626 1.086 1.480 4.193 0.183 0.939 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.662 1.045 0.977 2.694 0.161 0.952 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1898 TO 1994 97 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 95 1.912 1.160 0.989 3.692 0.182 0.900 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.246 0.361 0.460 0.970 0.026 0.089 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 95 1.943 1.199 0.976 3.483 0.180 0.939 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.418 0.362 0.778 1.383 0.042 0.027 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.539 0.505 0.061 2.503 0.141 0.646 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 1.699 1.048 0.617 2.874 0.161 0.917 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 2.117 1.409 1.395 4.257 0.203 0.944 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 2.298 1.648 1.781 6.151 0.233 0.966 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.739 0.200 0.015 -1.080 3.097 0.183 0.970 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.183 SERIES 044011 AND 044047 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.970 SERIES 044015 AND 044017 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.571 0.556 0.439 0.582 0.689 0.587 0.543 SDEV 0.281 0.217 0.299 0.266 0.201 0.397 0.390 SERR 0.020 0.016 0.022 0.019 0.015 0.029 0.028 EPS 0.964 0.962 0.940 0.965 0.978 0.966 0.960 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 1.899 1.073 1.116 3.762 0.141 0.940 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.707 0.179 0.325 16 81 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.20 1.00 1.06 1.26 1.61 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 0.99 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 96. 0. 94. 96. 96. 97. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.930 0.885 0.856 0.823 0.765 0.705 0.659 0.618 0.561 0.518 PACF 0.930 0.154 0.124 0.007 -0.197 -0.130 0.009 0.041 -0.068 0.060 95% C.L. 0.203 0.335 0.421 0.488 0.542 0.585 0.619 0.647 0.671 0.690 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.890 0.944 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 044011 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 044013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04735398 4.59510517 3 044015 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 044017 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 044021 1 4.33759928 0.02344668 0.00000000 0.30907547 6 044023 1 4.63343716 0.03771343 0.00000000 0.83807123 7 044025 1 3.45316339 0.05340834 0.00000000 1.36947846 8 044027 1 3.41086960 0.04769784 0.00000000 1.01201463 9 044031 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 044033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04304544 4.29793692 11 044035 1 4.37218094 0.03420265 0.00000000 0.25257030 12 044037 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 044041 1 0.53569573 0.05764601 0.00000000 2.03126693 14 044043 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01357721 2.67481136 15 044045 1 1.33366287 0.02138242 0.00000000 1.17218804 16 044047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00115286 1.89660025 17 044051 1 4.43849659 0.04731697 0.00000000 0.63724387 18 044053 1 4.34463358 0.05263289 0.00000000 0.96678257 19 044055 1 4.31128979 0.06177951 0.00000000 0.92354381 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 044057 1 3.83282971 0.04173722 0.00000000 0.75084281 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.003 0.274 -0.066 3.482 0.156 0.718 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.386 2.210 6.893 50.984 0.165 0.518 3 044015 1899 1994 96 1.005 0.290 0.300 3.251 0.156 0.722 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.012 0.330 0.798 4.208 0.154 0.734 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.008 0.502 0.577 3.075 0.211 0.843 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.002 0.358 0.487 3.491 0.203 0.779 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.394 0.214 3.256 0.229 0.802 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.417 0.626 3.569 0.217 0.818 9 044031 1899 1994 96 0.987 0.332 0.122 3.328 0.207 0.676 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.295 1.867 5.331 31.076 0.215 0.687 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.003 0.471 0.831 3.951 0.241 0.746 12 044037 1899 1994 96 0.973 0.325 0.966 4.594 0.197 0.652 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.230 0.364 3.292 0.159 0.617 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.238 0.545 2.633 0.175 0.568 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.268 0.673 3.660 0.140 0.742 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.305 0.157 3.050 0.161 0.769 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.007 0.271 0.812 3.661 0.178 0.654 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.003 0.272 0.582 2.932 0.180 0.643 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.002 0.347 1.123 4.157 0.181 0.774 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.005 0.375 1.913 8.012 0.160 0.724 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.035 0.504 1.162 7.483 0.184 0.709 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.106 0.533 1.764 11.970 0.029 0.083 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.003 0.331 0.604 3.530 0.179 0.723 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.006 0.133 0.566 0.929 0.049 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.973 0.230 -0.066 2.633 0.140 0.518 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.273 0.332 3.254 0.160 0.653 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.006 0.406 0.898 4.182 0.209 0.771 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.386 2.210 6.893 50.984 0.241 0.843 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 044011 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 044013 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 044015 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 044017 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 044021 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 044023 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 044025 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 044027 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 044031 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 044033 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 044035 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 044037 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 044041 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 044043 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 044045 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 044047 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 044051 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 044053 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 044055 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 044057 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 0.998 0.268 0.160 3.765 0.155 0.711 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.019 0.477 1.273 6.758 0.160 0.729 3 044015 1899 1994 96 0.994 0.253 0.097 3.653 0.155 0.666 4 044017 1899 1994 96 0.995 0.289 0.448 3.888 0.152 0.727 5 044021 1899 1994 96 0.964 0.371 0.253 3.203 0.209 0.763 6 044023 1899 1994 96 0.987 0.298 0.169 2.927 0.202 0.691 7 044025 1899 1994 96 0.986 0.330 -0.195 3.763 0.227 0.707 8 044027 1899 1994 96 0.980 0.341 0.364 3.556 0.215 0.736 9 044031 1899 1994 96 0.987 0.272 -0.586 3.037 0.207 0.586 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.014 0.546 0.757 3.734 0.210 0.814 11 044035 1899 1994 96 0.971 0.358 0.129 2.823 0.239 0.667 12 044037 1899 1994 96 0.990 0.280 0.516 3.248 0.195 0.574 13 044041 1900 1994 95 0.999 0.225 0.456 3.557 0.159 0.593 14 044043 1901 1994 94 0.997 0.218 0.479 2.390 0.174 0.495 15 044045 1900 1994 95 0.994 0.237 0.483 3.177 0.140 0.685 16 044047 1900 1994 95 0.992 0.267 0.042 3.149 0.160 0.717 17 044051 1899 1994 96 0.996 0.211 0.160 2.661 0.179 0.423 18 044053 1899 1994 96 0.996 0.202 0.351 2.892 0.181 0.387 19 044055 1899 1994 96 0.994 0.188 0.321 4.262 0.181 0.209 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 0.991 0.183 0.521 4.371 0.160 0.292 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 0.992 0.291 0.310 3.541 0.183 0.609 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.012 0.094 0.369 0.917 0.028 0.165 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 0.994 0.270 0.336 3.402 0.180 0.676 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.009 0.114 0.336 0.782 0.048 0.187 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.964 0.183 -0.586 2.390 0.140 0.209 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.987 0.221 0.145 2.982 0.159 0.534 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 0.997 0.336 0.481 3.764 0.208 0.722 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.019 0.546 1.273 6.758 0.239 0.814 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.512 0.172 0.012 -0.080 2.433 0.094 0.885 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.094 SERIES 044011 AND 044041 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.885 SERIES 044021 AND 044027 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.424 0.466 0.530 0.561 0.587 0.590 0.510 SDEV 0.260 0.242 0.265 0.195 0.206 0.289 0.291 SERR 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.014 0.015 0.021 0.021 EPS 0.936 0.946 0.957 0.962 0.966 0.966 0.954 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 0.982 0.209 -0.008 3.644 0.140 0.680 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.231 0.079 0.118 33 64 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.69 1.00 1.04 1.73 3.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.673 0.430 0.301 0.249 0.199 0.146 0.064 0.073 -0.008 -0.078 PACF 0.673 -0.043 0.051 0.067 0.000 -0.010 -0.077 0.098 -0.163 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.203 0.280 0.306 0.318 0.326 0.331 0.334 0.334 0.335 0.335 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.457 0.675 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.673 0.443 0.313 0.278 0.241 0.194 0.131 0.139 0.046 -0.043 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.673 2 0.683 -0.016 3 0.684 -0.042 0.038 4 0.680 -0.038 -0.033 0.104 5 0.678 -0.037 -0.033 0.094 0.015 6 0.678 -0.037 -0.033 0.094 0.015 -0.001 7 0.678 -0.037 -0.030 0.093 0.014 0.022 -0.034 8 0.681 -0.039 -0.031 0.085 0.017 0.025 -0.093 0.088 9 0.696 -0.054 -0.027 0.088 0.031 0.020 -0.100 0.200 -0.164 10 0.683 -0.038 -0.035 0.089 0.033 0.027 -0.102 0.195 -0.110 -0.079 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 726.70 670.30 672.28 674.14 675.08 677.05 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 679.05 680.94 682.20 681.54 682.93 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.673 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 45.23 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 182.57 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.673 0.452 0.304 0.205 0.138 0.093 0.062 0.042 0.028 0.0189 0.013 0.009 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 044011 1 0.586 0.749 2 044013 1 0.705 0.831 3 044015 1 0.501 0.701 4 044017 1 0.636 0.776 5 044021 1 0.606 0.771 6 044023 1 0.493 0.702 7 044025 1 0.518 0.717 8 044027 1 0.558 0.747 9 044031 1 0.390 0.606 10 044033 1 0.740 0.859 11 044035 1 0.477 0.685 12 044037 1 0.377 0.602 13 044041 1 0.369 0.606 14 044043 1 0.252 0.497 15 044045 1 0.477 0.690 16 044047 1 0.522 0.721 17 044051 1 0.182 0.427 18 044053 1 0.160 0.395 19 044055 1 0.059 0.212 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 044057 1 0.101 0.303 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.435 0.630 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.197 0.177 MEDIAN 1 0.485 0.696 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.262 0.198 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.059 0.212 LOWER HINGE 1 0.311 0.550 UPPER HINGE 1 0.572 0.748 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.740 0.859 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.173 0.136 3.163 0.182 0.136 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.262 3.430 21.188 0.193 0.217 3 044015 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.176 0.439 3.185 0.200 0.059 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.177 0.523 3.501 0.177 0.197 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.234 0.488 4.235 0.272 -0.136 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.211 0.182 2.731 0.253 -0.013 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.229 -0.118 4.599 0.264 -0.075 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.225 -0.134 3.263 0.260 -0.027 9 044031 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.215 -0.214 3.118 0.246 -0.119 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.278 0.266 6.603 0.275 0.099 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.259 0.238 4.049 0.289 -0.079 12 044037 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.222 -0.228 3.391 0.255 -0.078 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.178 0.191 2.951 0.202 0.026 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.189 0.316 2.694 0.214 0.041 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.171 -0.036 3.514 0.188 0.026 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.185 -0.083 3.381 0.209 -0.047 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.190 0.342 3.056 0.207 0.000 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.185 0.521 3.136 0.204 0.022 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.184 0.424 3.975 0.189 0.022 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.174 0.741 5.050 0.172 0.037 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.000 0.206 0.371 4.539 0.223 0.015 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.000 0.033 0.771 4.025 0.037 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.190 0.252 3.386 0.208 0.022 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.000 0.050 0.523 1.015 0.066 0.111 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.171 -0.228 2.694 0.172 -0.136 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.177 -0.060 3.127 0.191 -0.061 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.227 0.464 4.142 0.257 0.050 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.278 3.430 21.188 0.289 0.217 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.503 0.118 0.009 0.483 2.740 0.258 0.784 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.258 SERIES 044013 AND 044041 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.784 SERIES 044021 AND 044023 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.567 0.594 0.601 0.671 0.625 0.450 0.399 SDEV 0.147 0.143 0.163 0.126 0.140 0.189 0.199 SERR 0.011 0.010 0.012 0.009 0.010 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.963 0.967 0.968 0.976 0.971 0.942 0.930 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 0.995 0.146 0.063 4.575 0.160 0.051 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.319 0.103 0.035 24 73 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.35 1.01 1.08 1.43 3.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.050 -0.087 -0.067 0.060 0.083 0.051 -0.051 0.150 -0.002 -0.114 PACF 0.050 -0.090 -0.058 0.060 0.067 0.050 -0.037 0.172 -0.029 -0.108 95% C.L. 0.203 0.204 0.205 0.206 0.207 0.208 0.209 0.209 0.213 0.213 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 -0.087 -0.065 0.059 0.078 0.050 -0.061 0.153 -0.004 -0.115 PACF 0.004 -0.087 -0.065 0.053 0.067 0.056 -0.043 0.171 -0.015 -0.112 95% C.L. 0.203 0.203 0.205 0.205 0.206 0.207 0.208 0.209 0.213 0.213 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.008 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 0.990 0.192 0.104 3.340 0.128 0.651 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.644 0.387 0.262 0.247 0.221 0.166 0.103 0.121 0.028 -0.062 PACF 0.644 -0.048 0.055 0.114 0.017 -0.015 -0.024 0.090 -0.169 -0.072 95% C.L. 0.203 0.275 0.296 0.306 0.314 0.320 0.324 0.325 0.327 0.327 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.423 0.649 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.40 MINUTES