RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM051X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM051X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 044 1 Villingen-S. (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MAXIMUM ABAL - 044 2 Germany silver fir, European fir 880 4802-821 1898 1994 - 044 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 044021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 044023 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 044027 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 044031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 044033 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 044035 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1980 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 044037 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 4 GAPS / 1972 1972 / 1974 1974 / 1976 1978 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 0.882 0.062 -0.836 4.049 0.072 0.169 2 044013 1899 1994 96 0.869 0.056 -0.198 2.659 0.058 0.330 3 044015 1899 1994 96 0.866 0.074 -0.504 2.541 0.069 0.536 4 044017 1899 1994 96 0.870 0.069 -0.421 2.471 0.063 0.528 5 044021 1899 1994 96 0.774 0.069 -0.314 3.090 0.087 0.269 6 044023 1899 1994 96 0.785 0.077 -0.090 2.833 0.088 0.407 7 044025 1899 1994 96 0.791 0.078 -0.516 2.885 0.080 0.466 8 044027 1899 1994 96 0.805 0.079 -0.504 3.446 0.074 0.476 9 044031 1899 1994 96 0.901 0.087 -1.871 7.039 0.069 0.330 10 044033 1899 1994 96 0.896 0.060 -0.462 3.201 0.077 -0.003 11 044035 1899 1994 96 0.926 0.068 -1.360 5.272 0.057 0.524 12 044037 1899 1994 96 0.925 0.060 -0.921 4.472 0.052 0.230 13 044041 1900 1994 95 0.909 0.057 -0.634 4.002 0.060 0.218 14 044043 1901 1994 94 0.898 0.051 -0.705 2.991 0.061 0.129 15 044045 1900 1994 95 0.928 0.048 -0.567 3.574 0.054 0.122 16 044047 1900 1994 95 0.902 0.059 -0.163 2.456 0.050 0.571 17 044051 1899 1994 96 0.818 0.065 -0.150 3.425 0.076 0.278 18 044053 1899 1994 96 0.842 0.057 -0.448 4.166 0.078 0.003 19 044055 1899 1994 96 0.840 0.063 -0.219 2.954 0.075 0.220 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 0.840 0.055 -0.600 4.331 0.073 0.016 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1898 TO 1994 97 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 95 0.863 0.065 -0.574 3.593 0.069 0.291 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.049 0.010 0.429 1.113 0.011 0.186 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 95 0.870 0.063 -0.504 3.313 0.071 0.274 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.073 0.015 0.403 1.249 0.018 0.322 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.774 0.048 -1.871 2.456 0.050 -0.003 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 0.829 0.057 -0.669 2.859 0.059 0.149 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 0.902 0.072 -0.267 4.108 0.077 0.471 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 0.928 0.087 -0.090 7.039 0.088 0.571 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.567 0.149 0.011 -0.392 2.696 0.151 0.862 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.151 SERIES 044015 AND 044033 96 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.862 SERIES 044021 AND 044027 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.572 0.641 0.671 0.672 0.668 0.480 0.454 SDEV 0.162 0.148 0.125 0.203 0.191 0.282 0.267 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.015 0.014 0.020 0.019 EPS 0.964 0.973 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.949 0.943 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 0.864 0.051 -0.365 2.610 0.057 0.295 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.575 -0.198 0.239 5 92 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.12 1.03 1.11 1.22 1.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.05 0.00 0.85 0.90 0.97 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 96. 0. 94. 96. 96. 97. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.292 0.431 0.402 0.340 0.383 0.340 0.291 0.254 0.238 0.367 PACF 0.292 0.378 0.273 0.121 0.143 0.090 0.002 -0.052 -0.035 0.197 95% C.L. 0.203 0.220 0.252 0.277 0.294 0.314 0.329 0.339 0.347 0.354 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.289 0.077 0.331 0.276 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 044011 1 0.05844136 0.03092286 0.00000000 0.86390376 2 044013 1 0.07799023 0.01446095 0.00000000 0.82720661 3 044015 1 0.16040747 0.00907911 0.00000000 0.75926012 4 044017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00088246 0.91290349 5 044021 1 0.17198491 0.02226247 0.00000000 0.70084268 6 044023 1 0.19610196 0.01736641 0.00000000 0.68724930 7 044025 1 0.25561205 0.01157107 0.00000000 0.63708007 8 044027 1 0.25679985 0.01410284 0.00000000 0.66445774 9 044031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00139849 0.96270019 10 044033 1 0.06176484 0.15142399 0.00000000 0.89161503 11 044035 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00083063 0.96379560 12 044037 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00088658 0.95964205 13 044041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00095857 0.95474803 14 044043 1 0.07170681 0.02748605 0.00000000 0.87267280 15 044045 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00077114 0.96533036 16 044047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00134896 0.96696079 17 044051 1 0.13743453 0.01494763 0.00000000 0.74549443 18 044053 1 0.12616886 0.22354907 0.00000000 0.83642030 19 044055 1 0.20295310 0.00931778 0.00000000 0.70691174 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 044057 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00060935 0.86965203 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.069 -0.797 3.928 0.072 0.109 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.061 -0.108 2.754 0.057 0.259 3 044015 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.081 -0.190 2.807 0.068 0.440 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.075 -0.369 2.670 0.063 0.421 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.073 -0.177 3.279 0.085 0.017 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.082 0.254 3.952 0.085 0.150 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.080 -0.192 3.516 0.080 0.126 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.073 -0.713 5.389 0.076 0.089 9 044031 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.096 -1.370 4.944 0.073 0.581 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.066 -0.453 3.296 0.076 -0.034 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.071 -0.870 4.331 0.057 0.508 12 044037 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.070 -0.478 3.066 0.052 0.549 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.056 -0.515 4.351 0.060 -0.009 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.053 -0.652 2.908 0.060 -0.008 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.046 -0.270 3.195 0.053 -0.093 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.051 -0.050 2.635 0.049 0.251 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.071 -0.310 3.541 0.076 0.081 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.066 -0.476 4.559 0.077 -0.080 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.063 -0.579 3.689 0.075 -0.099 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.063 -0.619 4.402 0.072 -0.070 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.000 0.068 -0.447 3.660 0.068 0.159 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.000 0.012 0.351 0.798 0.011 0.228 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.069 -0.465 3.528 0.072 0.099 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.000 0.012 0.444 1.354 0.018 0.361 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.046 -1.370 2.635 0.049 -0.099 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.062 -0.635 2.987 0.058 -0.021 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.074 -0.191 4.341 0.076 0.340 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.096 0.254 5.389 0.085 0.581 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 044011 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 044013 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 044015 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 044017 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 044021 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 044023 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 044025 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 044027 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 044031 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 044033 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 044035 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 044037 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 044041 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 044043 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 044045 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 044047 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 044051 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 044053 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 044055 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 044057 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.061 -0.959 4.692 0.072 -0.123 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.054 -0.081 3.071 0.057 0.037 3 044015 1899 1994 96 0.999 0.063 -0.203 2.732 0.068 0.129 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.065 -0.400 3.170 0.063 0.273 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.070 -0.164 3.165 0.086 -0.100 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.075 0.276 3.996 0.085 0.010 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.074 -0.084 3.567 0.080 -0.043 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.071 -0.593 5.516 0.076 0.010 9 044031 1899 1994 96 0.999 0.084 -1.325 5.226 0.073 0.456 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.063 -0.451 3.453 0.076 -0.147 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.065 -0.802 4.033 0.057 0.419 12 044037 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.060 -0.358 3.108 0.052 0.394 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.055 -0.568 4.385 0.060 -0.056 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.052 -0.550 2.991 0.060 -0.069 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.045 -0.307 3.089 0.053 -0.121 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.048 -0.195 2.728 0.049 0.160 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.066 -0.413 3.675 0.076 -0.067 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.064 -0.628 4.453 0.077 -0.142 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.061 -0.537 3.556 0.075 -0.182 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.061 -0.685 4.320 0.072 -0.129 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.000 0.063 -0.451 3.746 0.068 0.035 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.000 0.009 0.350 0.806 0.011 0.202 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.063 -0.432 3.561 0.072 -0.049 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.000 0.010 0.411 1.254 0.018 0.266 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.999 0.045 -1.325 2.728 0.049 -0.182 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.057 -0.610 3.098 0.058 -0.122 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.068 -0.199 4.353 0.076 0.144 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.084 0.276 5.516 0.086 0.456 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.533 0.136 0.010 -0.322 2.597 0.166 0.791 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.166 SERIES 044031 AND 044043 94 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.791 SERIES 044053 AND 044057 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.579 0.634 0.715 0.665 0.649 0.480 0.465 SDEV 0.160 0.149 0.105 0.153 0.161 0.287 0.264 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.008 0.011 0.012 0.021 0.019 EPS 0.965 0.972 0.980 0.975 0.974 0.949 0.946 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 1.001 0.047 -0.272 2.961 0.058 -0.167 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.196 -0.063 0.102 29 68 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.80 1.00 1.07 1.87 3.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.165 0.092 0.044 0.003 0.041 0.021 -0.046 -0.077 -0.123 0.114 PACF -0.165 0.067 0.072 0.015 0.035 0.029 -0.047 -0.105 -0.156 0.093 95% C.L. 0.203 0.209 0.210 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.213 0.215 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 -0.165 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.130 0.105 0.061 -0.021 0.083 -0.001 -0.019 -0.092 -0.106 0.112 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.130 2 -0.118 0.089 3 -0.126 0.100 0.087 4 -0.125 0.101 0.086 -0.013 5 -0.124 0.095 0.079 -0.005 0.066 6 -0.125 0.095 0.078 -0.006 0.068 0.016 7 -0.124 0.098 0.078 -0.004 0.071 0.012 -0.032 8 -0.128 0.099 0.086 -0.004 0.080 0.023 -0.046 -0.115 9 -0.143 0.093 0.089 0.006 0.079 0.035 -0.033 -0.131 -0.132 10 -0.129 0.107 0.092 0.002 0.071 0.034 -0.042 -0.141 -0.116 0.107 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 430.30 430.66 431.88 433.14 435.12 436.70 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 438.67 440.57 441.29 441.60 442.48 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 044011 0 0.015 2 044013 0 0.001 3 044015 0 0.018 4 044017 0 0.080 5 044021 0 0.010 6 044023 0 0.000 7 044025 0 0.002 8 044027 0 0.000 9 044031 0 0.209 10 044033 0 0.022 11 044035 0 0.178 12 044037 0 0.158 13 044041 0 0.003 14 044043 0 0.005 15 044045 0 0.015 16 044047 0 0.026 17 044051 0 0.005 18 044053 0 0.020 19 044055 0 0.033 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 044057 0 0.017 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.041 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.064 MEDIAN 0 0.016 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.026 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.004 UPPER HINGE 0 0.030 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.209 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 044011 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.061 -0.959 4.692 0.072 -0.123 2 044013 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.054 -0.081 3.071 0.057 0.037 3 044015 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.063 -0.203 2.732 0.068 0.129 4 044017 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.065 -0.400 3.170 0.063 0.273 5 044021 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.070 -0.164 3.165 0.086 -0.100 6 044023 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.075 0.276 3.996 0.085 0.010 7 044025 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.074 -0.084 3.567 0.080 -0.043 8 044027 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.071 -0.593 5.516 0.076 0.010 9 044031 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.084 -1.325 5.226 0.073 0.456 10 044033 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.063 -0.451 3.453 0.076 -0.147 11 044035 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.065 -0.802 4.033 0.057 0.419 12 044037 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.060 -0.358 3.108 0.052 0.394 13 044041 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.055 -0.568 4.385 0.060 -0.056 14 044043 1901 1994 94 1.000 0.052 -0.550 2.991 0.060 -0.069 15 044045 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.045 -0.307 3.089 0.053 -0.121 16 044047 1900 1994 95 1.000 0.048 -0.195 2.728 0.049 0.160 17 044051 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.066 -0.413 3.675 0.076 -0.067 18 044053 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.064 -0.628 4.453 0.077 -0.142 19 044055 1899 1994 96 1.000 0.061 -0.537 3.556 0.075 -0.182 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 044057 1898 1994 97 1.000 0.061 -0.685 4.320 0.072 -0.129 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 96 1.000 0.063 -0.451 3.746 0.068 0.035 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.000 0.009 0.350 0.806 0.011 0.202 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.063 -0.432 3.561 0.072 -0.049 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.000 0.010 0.411 1.254 0.018 0.266 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.045 -1.325 2.728 0.049 -0.182 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.057 -0.610 3.098 0.058 -0.122 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.068 -0.199 4.353 0.076 0.144 MAXIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.084 0.276 5.516 0.086 0.456 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.533 0.136 0.010 -0.322 2.597 0.166 0.791 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.166 SERIES 044031 AND 044043 94 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.791 SERIES 044053 AND 044057 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 98.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.579 0.634 0.715 0.665 0.649 0.480 0.465 SDEV 0.160 0.149 0.105 0.153 0.161 0.287 0.264 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.008 0.011 0.012 0.021 0.019 EPS 0.965 0.972 0.980 0.975 0.974 0.949 0.946 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 1.001 0.047 -0.272 2.960 0.058 -0.166 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.195 -0.062 0.102 29 68 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.78 1.00 1.06 1.85 3.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.165 0.092 0.044 0.003 0.041 0.021 -0.046 -0.077 -0.123 0.114 PACF -0.165 0.067 0.072 0.015 0.035 0.029 -0.047 -0.105 -0.156 0.094 95% C.L. 0.203 0.209 0.210 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.213 0.215 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 -0.165 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1898 1994 97 1.001 0.047 -0.272 2.960 0.058 -0.166 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.165 0.092 0.044 0.003 0.041 0.021 -0.046 -0.077 -0.123 0.114 PACF -0.165 0.067 0.072 0.015 0.035 0.029 -0.047 -0.105 -0.156 0.094 95% C.L. 0.203 0.209 0.210 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.213 0.215 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 -0.165 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.13 MINUTES