RUN: 4DIG001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM052L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM052L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 049 1 Seehalde (D), EU-Pr. WIDTH_LATE PCAB - 049 2 Germany Norway spruce 1250 4751-802 1756 1995 - 049 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 15 049045 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1955 1959 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 049011 1791 1995 205 0.265 0.187 4.926 33.720 0.287 0.575 2 049013 1791 1995 205 0.299 0.099 1.129 4.995 0.261 0.389 3 049015 1791 1995 205 0.266 0.132 2.629 13.727 0.278 0.441 4 049017 1790 1995 206 0.210 0.125 4.038 26.721 0.243 0.486 5 049021 1782 1995 214 0.183 0.093 3.905 27.454 0.268 0.440 6 049023 1782 1995 214 0.353 0.211 1.879 8.292 0.379 0.515 7 049025 1782 1995 214 0.180 0.098 4.238 30.528 0.301 0.504 8 049027 1807 1995 189 0.158 0.050 1.572 6.864 0.232 0.400 9 049031 1777 1995 219 0.246 0.178 5.237 37.966 0.312 0.298 10 049033 1777 1995 219 0.260 0.119 1.850 8.613 0.310 0.390 11 049035 1777 1995 219 0.149 0.098 3.235 19.176 0.268 0.547 12 049037 1780 1995 216 0.152 0.148 4.602 28.127 0.264 0.615 13 049041 1756 1995 240 0.227 0.097 1.652 8.445 0.310 0.358 14 049043 1758 1995 238 0.298 0.132 1.352 5.709 0.343 0.457 15 049045 1756 1995 240 0.149 0.089 4.160 32.513 0.268 0.483 16 049047 1757 1995 239 0.141 0.073 1.730 6.617 0.236 0.696 17 049051 1756 1995 240 0.175 0.083 0.789 3.877 0.258 0.711 18 049053 1756 1995 240 0.304 0.164 2.790 15.230 0.348 0.341 19 049055 1763 1995 233 0.146 0.086 1.368 5.260 0.212 0.817 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 049057 1756 1995 240 0.147 0.096 6.795 64.200 0.264 0.535 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1756 TO 1995 240 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 0.215 0.118 2.994 19.402 0.282 0.500 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.066 0.041 1.662 15.582 0.042 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 219 0.197 0.099 2.709 14.479 0.268 0.484 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.115 0.049 2.587 22.587 0.051 0.166 MINIMUM VALUE 189 0.141 0.050 0.789 3.877 0.212 0.298 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 210 0.151 0.091 1.612 6.740 0.260 0.395 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 238 0.265 0.140 4.199 29.327 0.310 0.561 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 0.353 0.211 6.795 64.200 0.379 0.817 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.338 0.172 0.013 -0.137 2.633 -0.112 0.811 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.112 SERIES 049013 AND 049055 205 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.811 SERIES 049035 AND 049037 216 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1781. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 10. 105. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.286 0.292 0.354 0.359 0.367 0.354 0.430 0.499 SDEV 0.144 0.243 0.218 0.185 0.194 0.192 0.158 0.138 SERR 0.045 0.024 0.016 0.013 0.014 0.014 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.836 0.887 0.916 0.918 0.921 0.916 0.938 0.952 NSS 12.7 19.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1995 240 0.202 0.058 0.658 3.890 0.198 0.569 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.604 0.381 0.009 131 109 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.79 1.90 1.00 1.19 3.09 543.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.63 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 219. 30. 189. 210. 240. 240. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.567 0.507 0.481 0.418 0.303 0.302 0.320 0.331 0.334 0.272 PACF 0.567 0.274 0.185 0.064 -0.083 0.043 0.112 0.123 0.086 -0.074 95% C.L. 0.129 0.165 0.190 0.209 0.222 0.229 0.236 0.243 0.250 0.258 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.408 0.348 0.199 0.207 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 049011 1 0.30199096 0.01900065 0.00000000 0.18964761 2 049013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039867 0.25752223 3 049015 1 0.38752392 0.04065296 0.00000000 0.22054845 4 049017 1 0.44443718 0.04617418 0.00000000 0.16439891 5 049021 1 0.22586456 0.03157629 0.00000000 0.15045580 6 049023 1 0.27091363 0.02001339 0.00000000 0.29118684 7 049025 1 0.36067542 0.08168699 0.00000000 0.16010562 8 049027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000240 0.15770854 9 049031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00074424 0.32830465 10 049033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029338 0.29259184 11 049035 1 0.29879308 0.02507971 0.00000000 0.09577137 12 049037 1 0.73169029 0.06770425 0.00000000 0.10363297 13 049041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017351 0.24761575 14 049043 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029698 0.33317837 15 049045 1 0.17325470 0.02836442 0.00000000 0.12301344 16 049047 1 0.28685355 0.04349289 0.00000000 0.11425658 17 049051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00088465 0.28193375 18 049053 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013158 0.28831100 19 049055 1 0.28180608 0.01262267 0.00000000 0.05565724 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 049057 1 0.23682199 0.02967946 0.00000000 0.11423068 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 049011 1791 1995 205 1.000 0.530 3.583 21.524 0.286 0.500 2 049013 1791 1995 205 1.000 0.317 0.999 4.588 0.259 0.338 3 049015 1791 1995 205 1.000 0.344 0.841 4.119 0.277 0.389 4 049017 1790 1995 206 1.000 0.341 2.471 17.330 0.242 0.306 5 049021 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.356 1.355 6.285 0.266 0.296 6 049023 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.595 2.714 14.631 0.377 0.461 7 049025 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.381 1.294 5.207 0.301 0.279 8 049027 1807 1995 189 1.000 0.317 1.569 6.851 0.231 0.398 9 049031 1777 1995 219 1.001 0.593 3.905 24.630 0.311 0.297 10 049033 1777 1995 219 1.000 0.450 1.749 8.058 0.309 0.388 11 049035 1777 1995 219 1.000 0.354 1.376 6.342 0.268 0.388 12 049037 1780 1995 216 0.998 0.336 1.129 4.784 0.262 0.345 13 049041 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.425 1.555 7.330 0.309 0.363 14 049043 1758 1995 238 1.000 0.442 1.505 6.673 0.342 0.435 15 049045 1756 1995 240 0.999 0.602 6.975 69.099 0.268 0.358 16 049047 1757 1995 239 0.999 0.367 2.162 15.972 0.235 0.399 17 049051 1756 1995 240 1.008 0.367 1.866 9.056 0.258 0.352 18 049053 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.539 2.990 17.641 0.346 0.325 19 049055 1763 1995 233 1.002 0.316 0.951 4.110 0.212 0.527 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 049057 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.375 4.020 33.024 0.262 0.291 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 1.000 0.417 2.250 14.363 0.281 0.372 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.002 0.100 1.481 15.160 0.042 0.069 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 219 1.000 0.371 1.659 7.694 0.268 0.361 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.148 1.527 11.740 0.050 0.083 MINIMUM VALUE 189 0.998 0.316 0.841 4.110 0.212 0.279 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 210 1.000 0.342 1.325 5.746 0.259 0.316 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 239 1.000 0.490 2.852 17.486 0.309 0.398 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 1.008 0.602 6.975 69.099 0.377 0.527 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 049011 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 049013 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 049015 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 049017 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 049021 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 049023 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 049025 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 049027 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 049031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 049033 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 049035 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 049037 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 049041 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 049043 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 049045 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 049047 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 049051 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 049053 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 049055 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 049057 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 049011 1791 1995 205 0.995 0.480 3.411 21.185 0.286 0.456 2 049013 1791 1995 205 0.998 0.306 0.880 4.297 0.259 0.303 3 049015 1791 1995 205 0.996 0.317 0.625 3.733 0.277 0.313 4 049017 1790 1995 206 0.999 0.334 2.407 17.092 0.242 0.289 5 049021 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.354 1.358 6.406 0.266 0.290 6 049023 1782 1995 214 0.982 0.492 2.187 11.386 0.377 0.361 7 049025 1782 1995 214 0.997 0.348 1.064 4.601 0.301 0.200 8 049027 1807 1995 189 0.998 0.294 1.312 6.001 0.231 0.334 9 049031 1777 1995 219 0.998 0.571 3.567 21.330 0.311 0.323 10 049033 1777 1995 219 0.997 0.429 1.615 7.167 0.309 0.356 11 049035 1777 1995 219 0.998 0.337 1.234 5.717 0.268 0.326 12 049037 1780 1995 216 0.999 0.323 0.948 4.467 0.262 0.311 13 049041 1756 1995 240 0.994 0.390 1.492 7.153 0.309 0.298 14 049043 1758 1995 238 0.997 0.416 1.304 5.699 0.342 0.405 15 049045 1756 1995 240 0.989 0.507 6.344 60.394 0.268 0.295 16 049047 1757 1995 239 0.995 0.337 1.894 12.708 0.235 0.336 17 049051 1756 1995 240 0.997 0.334 1.343 5.624 0.258 0.334 18 049053 1756 1995 240 0.994 0.485 2.346 12.934 0.346 0.298 19 049055 1763 1995 233 0.994 0.272 0.942 4.358 0.212 0.408 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 049057 1756 1995 240 0.999 0.364 3.978 32.650 0.262 0.264 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 0.996 0.385 2.013 12.745 0.281 0.325 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.004 0.083 1.388 13.549 0.042 0.055 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 219 0.997 0.351 1.425 6.779 0.268 0.318 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.004 0.126 1.227 9.900 0.051 0.050 MINIMUM VALUE 189 0.982 0.272 0.625 3.733 0.212 0.200 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 210 0.995 0.328 1.149 5.112 0.259 0.297 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 239 0.998 0.455 2.376 15.013 0.309 0.346 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 1.000 0.571 6.344 60.394 0.377 0.456 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.330 0.125 0.009 0.186 2.929 0.013 0.718 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.013 SERIES 049031 AND 049051 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.718 SERIES 049021 AND 049027 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1781. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 10. 105. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.219 0.302 0.319 0.392 0.393 0.372 0.426 0.495 SDEV 0.150 0.206 0.212 0.162 0.175 0.169 0.159 0.136 SERR 0.047 0.020 0.015 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.781 0.892 0.904 0.928 0.928 0.922 0.937 0.951 NSS 12.7 19.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1995 240 0.958 0.203 0.346 2.918 0.187 0.314 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.608 0.273 -0.013 112 128 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 1.01 1.00 1.10 2.11 18.85 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.76 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.313 0.266 0.211 0.117 -0.007 0.020 0.022 0.034 0.064 -0.074 PACF 0.313 0.187 0.097 -0.008 -0.108 0.007 0.033 0.046 0.054 -0.148 95% C.L. 0.129 0.141 0.149 0.154 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.138 0.236 0.162 0.097 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.299 0.278 0.225 0.143 0.018 0.037 0.026 0.015 0.077 -0.075 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.299 2 0.237 0.207 3 0.214 0.181 0.111 4 0.213 0.178 0.108 0.013 5 0.214 0.189 0.126 0.035 -0.101 6 0.214 0.189 0.126 0.035 -0.100 -0.002 7 0.214 0.191 0.126 0.033 -0.104 -0.006 0.020 8 0.213 0.191 0.127 0.032 -0.106 -0.010 0.017 0.017 9 0.212 0.190 0.128 0.041 -0.109 -0.020 0.001 -0.001 0.084 10 0.224 0.190 0.128 0.038 -0.124 -0.015 0.019 0.026 0.114 -0.142 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2017.12 1996.64 1988.12 1987.15 1989.10 1988.66 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1990.66 1992.56 1994.49 1994.80 1991.94 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.214 0.181 0.111 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 13.92 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 116.17 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.214 0.227 0.198 0.107 0.084 0.059 0.040 0.029 0.020 0.0138 0.010 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 049011 3 0.256 0.436 0.189 -0.196 2 049013 3 0.128 0.257 0.203 -0.055 3 049015 3 0.119 0.265 0.127 0.040 4 049017 3 0.102 0.272 0.113 -0.043 5 049021 3 0.107 0.249 0.078 0.109 6 049023 3 0.162 0.335 0.003 0.154 7 049025 3 0.052 0.179 0.098 0.027 8 049027 3 0.170 0.240 0.238 0.046 9 049031 3 0.222 0.217 0.164 0.183 10 049033 3 0.205 0.244 0.162 0.185 11 049035 3 0.176 0.227 0.202 0.114 12 049037 3 0.136 0.244 0.177 0.051 13 049041 3 0.121 0.245 0.094 0.124 14 049043 3 0.190 0.336 0.164 0.014 15 049045 3 0.108 0.301 -0.054 0.147 16 049047 3 0.172 0.265 0.110 0.142 17 049051 3 0.137 0.304 0.062 0.102 18 049053 3 0.135 0.256 0.075 0.132 19 049055 3 0.208 0.334 0.138 0.090 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 049057 3 0.076 0.270 -0.006 -0.064 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.149 0.274 0.117 0.065 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.051 0.056 0.076 0.097 MEDIAN 3 0.136 0.261 0.120 0.096 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.070 0.058 0.094 0.116 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.052 0.179 -0.054 -0.196 LOWER HINGE 3 0.113 0.244 0.077 0.020 UPPER HINGE 3 0.183 0.302 0.171 0.137 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.256 0.436 0.238 0.185 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 049011 1791 1995 205 1.004 0.402 2.356 14.103 0.372 0.046 2 049013 1791 1995 205 1.000 0.286 1.125 5.008 0.293 -0.001 3 049015 1791 1995 205 1.000 0.298 0.658 4.031 0.314 -0.003 4 049017 1790 1995 206 1.000 0.317 2.464 18.517 0.282 -0.007 5 049021 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.335 1.837 8.838 0.296 0.001 6 049023 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.451 1.986 9.188 0.438 -0.010 7 049025 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.339 1.159 4.743 0.326 0.000 8 049027 1807 1995 189 1.000 0.268 1.157 6.119 0.264 0.001 9 049031 1777 1995 219 1.000 0.516 3.421 21.912 0.363 0.030 10 049033 1777 1995 219 1.000 0.384 1.664 7.207 0.355 0.017 11 049035 1777 1995 219 1.000 0.307 1.208 6.548 0.302 0.011 12 049037 1780 1995 216 1.000 0.300 1.098 4.752 0.288 0.002 13 049041 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.367 1.656 8.285 0.354 -0.009 14 049043 1758 1995 238 1.000 0.374 1.243 5.918 0.393 -0.002 15 049045 1756 1995 240 1.001 0.478 6.655 66.640 0.326 0.005 16 049047 1757 1995 239 1.000 0.310 2.717 19.191 0.263 -0.022 17 049051 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.310 1.543 6.581 0.295 0.010 18 049053 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.454 2.651 17.208 0.407 -0.023 19 049055 1763 1995 233 1.000 0.241 0.933 4.769 0.252 -0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 049057 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.350 4.191 36.660 0.304 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 1.000 0.354 2.086 13.811 0.324 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.001 0.074 1.400 14.881 0.051 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 219 1.000 0.337 1.660 7.746 0.309 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.089 1.399 12.399 0.068 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 189 1.000 0.241 0.658 4.031 0.252 -0.023 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 210 1.000 0.304 1.158 5.463 0.290 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 239 1.000 0.393 2.557 17.862 0.359 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 1.004 0.516 6.655 66.640 0.438 0.046 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.332 0.111 0.008 0.334 3.299 0.046 0.724 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.046 SERIES 049031 AND 049055 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.724 SERIES 049021 AND 049027 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1781. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 10. 105. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.242 0.350 0.349 0.360 0.365 0.392 0.428 0.456 SDEV 0.170 0.190 0.181 0.141 0.146 0.160 0.146 0.122 SERR 0.054 0.019 0.013 0.010 0.011 0.012 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.802 0.911 0.915 0.918 0.920 0.928 0.937 0.944 NSS 12.7 19.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1995 240 0.970 0.189 0.392 3.254 0.214 -0.037 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.581 0.280 -0.047 119 121 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.75 1.00 1.11 1.86 155.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.63 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.037 0.059 0.044 0.055 -0.098 -0.015 -0.003 0.036 0.116 -0.045 PACF -0.037 0.057 0.048 0.055 -0.100 -0.031 0.002 0.046 0.135 -0.049 95% C.L. 0.129 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.133 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 0.002 0.009 0.052 -0.105 -0.032 -0.003 0.052 0.126 -0.042 PACF -0.003 0.002 0.009 0.052 -0.105 -0.033 -0.004 0.052 0.140 -0.051 95% C.L. 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.133 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.003 -0.003 0.002 0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1995 240 0.970 0.202 0.328 2.920 0.186 0.297 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.296 0.271 0.218 0.152 0.012 0.038 0.030 0.042 0.075 -0.060 PACF 0.296 0.201 0.107 0.030 -0.109 0.000 0.023 0.046 0.069 -0.135 95% C.L. 0.129 0.140 0.148 0.154 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.157 0.157 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.136 0.215 0.176 0.107 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES