RUN: 4DIG001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM052T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM052T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 049 1 Seehalde (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_LATE PCAB - 049 2 Germany Norway spruce 1250 4751-802 1756 1995 - 049 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 049011 1791 1995 205 7.258 0.657 -0.553 4.938 0.099 -0.015 2 049013 1791 1995 205 7.412 0.668 -0.501 3.474 0.079 0.353 3 049015 1791 1995 205 7.534 0.612 -0.356 3.385 0.081 0.149 4 049017 1790 1995 206 7.433 0.657 -0.396 3.712 0.088 0.194 5 049021 1782 1995 214 6.478 0.651 -0.462 4.770 0.097 0.205 6 049023 1782 1995 214 6.601 0.670 -0.462 4.203 0.096 0.224 7 049025 1782 1995 214 6.675 0.634 -0.584 4.398 0.097 0.154 8 049027 1807 1995 189 6.496 0.710 -0.534 3.223 0.103 0.246 9 049031 1777 1995 219 6.591 0.698 -0.469 3.675 0.082 0.491 10 049033 1777 1995 219 6.743 0.582 -0.637 3.773 0.086 0.137 11 049035 1777 1995 219 6.583 0.621 -0.428 3.799 0.089 0.264 12 049037 1780 1995 216 6.556 0.537 -0.514 4.618 0.084 0.067 13 049041 1756 1995 240 6.954 0.689 -1.071 5.102 0.096 0.202 14 049043 1758 1995 238 7.089 0.542 -0.933 5.183 0.073 0.180 15 049045 1756 1995 240 6.996 0.767 -1.090 5.763 0.104 0.219 16 049047 1757 1995 239 6.911 0.751 -0.798 5.278 0.104 0.227 17 049051 1756 1995 240 6.737 0.640 -0.327 2.842 0.082 0.356 18 049053 1756 1995 240 6.787 0.597 -0.656 4.551 0.088 0.163 19 049055 1763 1995 233 6.610 0.620 -0.606 3.905 0.088 0.257 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 049057 1756 1995 240 6.705 0.701 -0.635 3.737 0.102 0.225 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1756 TO 1995 240 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 6.857 0.650 -0.601 4.216 0.091 0.215 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.330 0.061 0.218 0.786 0.009 0.106 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 219 6.740 0.654 -0.544 4.054 0.089 0.212 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.446 0.078 0.185 1.160 0.014 0.093 MINIMUM VALUE 189 6.478 0.537 -1.090 2.842 0.073 -0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 210 6.596 0.616 -0.647 3.694 0.083 0.159 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 239 7.042 0.694 -0.462 4.854 0.098 0.252 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 7.534 0.767 -0.327 5.763 0.104 0.491 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.552 0.092 0.007 0.063 3.087 0.312 0.803 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.312 SERIES 049013 AND 049051 205 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.803 SERIES 049011 AND 049017 205 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1781. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 10. 105. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.727 0.603 0.564 0.527 0.520 0.701 0.746 0.684 SDEV 0.091 0.119 0.158 0.165 0.165 0.112 0.076 0.092 SERR 0.029 0.012 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.008 0.006 0.007 EPS 0.971 0.967 0.963 0.957 0.956 0.979 0.983 0.977 NSS 12.7 19.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1995 240 6.859 0.494 -1.060 6.133 0.076 0.035 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.035 -0.010 0.608 36 204 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.31 1.00 1.05 1.36 2.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.60 0.86 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 219. 30. 189. 210. 240. 240. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.035 0.174 0.088 0.102 0.002 0.060 0.020 -0.047 -0.023 -0.025 PACF 0.035 0.173 0.079 0.071 -0.030 0.026 0.010 -0.069 -0.032 -0.016 95% C.L. 0.129 0.129 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.136 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.038 0.029 0.175 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 049011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00144336 7.10884666 2 049013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00246399 7.15850210 3 049015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00126131 7.40393829 4 049017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012952 7.41921616 5 049021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00179281 6.28489017 6 049023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00091761 6.69995117 7 049025 1 0.89253873 0.01385732 0.00000000 6.39174080 8 049027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040019 6.45833158 9 049031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00452575 7.08833456 10 049033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008185 6.75242805 11 049035 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00342689 6.95955992 12 049037 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021352 6.53257418 13 049041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00343827 7.36826944 14 049043 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00122356 7.23495483 15 049045 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00292274 7.34794044 16 049047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00346666 7.32746363 17 049051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00355985 7.16579580 18 049053 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00062252 6.71219540 19 049055 1 1.19629741 0.00046876 0.00000000 5.47749710 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 049057 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00306047 7.07328653 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 049011 1791 1995 205 1.000 0.090 -0.590 5.185 0.098 -0.029 2 049013 1791 1995 205 1.000 0.088 -0.359 3.532 0.079 0.325 3 049015 1791 1995 205 1.000 0.081 -0.351 3.517 0.080 0.139 4 049017 1790 1995 206 1.000 0.088 -0.397 3.722 0.087 0.193 5 049021 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.099 -0.572 5.035 0.096 0.180 6 049023 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.101 -0.429 4.284 0.096 0.217 7 049025 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.089 -0.624 4.834 0.096 0.037 8 049027 1807 1995 189 1.000 0.109 -0.544 3.228 0.102 0.244 9 049031 1777 1995 219 1.000 0.099 0.217 4.158 0.081 0.398 10 049033 1777 1995 219 1.000 0.086 -0.638 3.766 0.086 0.137 11 049035 1777 1995 219 1.000 0.089 -0.418 3.845 0.088 0.169 12 049037 1780 1995 216 1.000 0.082 -0.530 4.642 0.084 0.066 13 049041 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.095 -0.707 4.852 0.096 0.094 14 049043 1758 1995 238 1.000 0.076 -0.856 4.904 0.073 0.157 15 049045 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.106 -1.181 6.093 0.103 0.150 16 049047 1757 1995 239 1.000 0.103 -0.859 5.634 0.103 0.125 17 049051 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.088 -0.182 2.780 0.082 0.252 18 049053 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.088 -0.689 4.623 0.088 0.158 19 049055 1763 1995 233 1.000 0.094 -0.601 3.900 0.088 0.251 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 049057 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.100 -0.683 3.852 0.102 0.145 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 1.000 0.093 -0.550 4.319 0.090 0.170 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.009 0.283 0.838 0.009 0.097 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 219 1.000 0.089 -0.581 4.221 0.088 0.157 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.011 0.279 1.134 0.014 0.099 MINIMUM VALUE 189 1.000 0.076 -1.181 2.780 0.073 -0.029 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 210 1.000 0.088 -0.686 3.744 0.083 0.131 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 239 1.000 0.099 -0.407 4.878 0.097 0.230 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 1.000 0.109 0.217 6.093 0.103 0.398 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 049011 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 049013 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 049015 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 049017 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 049021 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 049023 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 049025 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 049027 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 049031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 049033 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 049035 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 049037 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 049041 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 049043 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 049045 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 049047 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 049051 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 049053 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 049055 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 049057 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 049011 1791 1995 205 1.000 0.088 -0.667 5.358 0.098 -0.062 2 049013 1791 1995 205 1.000 0.078 -0.505 4.069 0.079 0.143 3 049015 1791 1995 205 1.000 0.076 -0.565 4.068 0.080 0.033 4 049017 1790 1995 206 1.000 0.082 -0.649 4.516 0.088 0.064 5 049021 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.098 -0.635 5.124 0.096 0.159 6 049023 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.100 -0.437 4.339 0.096 0.193 7 049025 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.088 -0.614 4.780 0.096 0.007 8 049027 1807 1995 189 1.000 0.101 -0.607 3.573 0.102 0.106 9 049031 1777 1995 219 1.000 0.091 0.336 4.920 0.081 0.276 10 049033 1777 1995 219 1.000 0.082 -0.768 4.100 0.085 0.040 11 049035 1777 1995 219 1.000 0.087 -0.449 3.949 0.088 0.137 12 049037 1780 1995 216 1.000 0.081 -0.574 4.667 0.084 0.052 13 049041 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.090 -0.643 5.423 0.096 -0.002 14 049043 1758 1995 238 1.000 0.073 -0.841 5.140 0.073 0.076 15 049045 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.104 -1.239 6.403 0.103 0.119 16 049047 1757 1995 239 1.000 0.099 -0.991 6.301 0.103 0.045 17 049051 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.086 -0.216 3.027 0.082 0.210 18 049053 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.083 -0.702 4.882 0.088 0.048 19 049055 1763 1995 233 1.000 0.090 -0.579 4.107 0.088 0.192 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 049057 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.099 -0.738 4.030 0.102 0.129 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 1.000 0.089 -0.604 4.639 0.090 0.098 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.009 0.305 0.845 0.009 0.083 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 219 1.000 0.088 -0.625 4.591 0.088 0.091 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.016 0.185 1.064 0.014 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 189 1.000 0.073 -1.239 3.027 0.073 -0.062 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 210 1.000 0.082 -0.720 4.069 0.083 0.042 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 239 1.000 0.098 -0.535 5.132 0.097 0.151 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 1.000 0.104 0.336 6.403 0.103 0.276 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.609 0.070 0.005 0.068 3.260 0.431 0.825 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.431 SERIES 049031 AND 049057 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.825 SERIES 049011 AND 049017 205 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1781. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 10. 105. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.732 0.614 0.587 0.540 0.521 0.714 0.752 0.681 SDEV 0.089 0.115 0.146 0.163 0.162 0.097 0.074 0.095 SERR 0.028 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.007 0.005 0.007 EPS 0.972 0.968 0.966 0.959 0.956 0.980 0.984 0.977 NSS 12.7 19.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1995 240 1.001 0.071 -1.050 6.180 0.076 -0.024 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.055 -0.013 0.066 76 164 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.28 1.00 1.07 1.36 4.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.74 0.87 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.024 0.129 0.043 0.049 -0.035 0.024 -0.008 -0.093 -0.053 -0.057 PACF -0.024 0.129 0.050 0.036 -0.045 0.009 -0.001 -0.098 -0.057 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.129 0.129 0.131 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.134 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.020 -0.021 0.130 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.054 0.109 0.014 0.031 -0.048 0.025 0.008 -0.090 -0.047 -0.034 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.054 2 -0.049 0.106 3 -0.051 0.107 0.025 4 -0.052 0.105 0.026 0.022 5 -0.051 0.106 0.032 0.019 -0.050 6 -0.050 0.106 0.031 0.018 -0.049 0.014 7 -0.050 0.107 0.031 0.017 -0.052 0.015 0.019 8 -0.049 0.108 0.026 0.019 -0.049 0.025 0.015 -0.093 9 -0.054 0.109 0.027 0.016 -0.048 0.027 0.021 -0.096 -0.059 10 -0.055 0.107 0.028 0.017 -0.049 0.027 0.022 -0.093 -0.060 -0.024 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1454.85 1456.14 1455.43 1457.28 1459.17 1460.56 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1462.51 1464.42 1464.35 1465.52 1467.39 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 049011 0 0.004 2 049013 0 0.021 3 049015 0 0.001 4 049017 0 0.004 5 049021 0 0.025 6 049023 0 0.039 7 049025 0 0.000 8 049027 0 0.011 9 049031 0 0.080 10 049033 0 0.002 11 049035 0 0.019 12 049037 0 0.003 13 049041 0 0.000 14 049043 0 0.006 15 049045 0 0.015 16 049047 0 0.002 17 049051 0 0.045 18 049053 0 0.002 19 049055 0 0.037 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 049057 0 0.017 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.017 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.020 MEDIAN 0 0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.021 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.002 UPPER HINGE 0 0.023 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.080 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 049011 1791 1995 205 1.000 0.088 -0.667 5.358 0.098 -0.062 2 049013 1791 1995 205 1.000 0.078 -0.505 4.069 0.079 0.143 3 049015 1791 1995 205 1.000 0.076 -0.565 4.068 0.080 0.033 4 049017 1790 1995 206 1.000 0.082 -0.649 4.516 0.088 0.064 5 049021 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.098 -0.635 5.124 0.096 0.159 6 049023 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.100 -0.437 4.339 0.096 0.193 7 049025 1782 1995 214 1.000 0.088 -0.614 4.780 0.096 0.007 8 049027 1807 1995 189 1.000 0.101 -0.607 3.573 0.102 0.106 9 049031 1777 1995 219 1.000 0.091 0.336 4.920 0.081 0.276 10 049033 1777 1995 219 1.000 0.082 -0.768 4.100 0.085 0.040 11 049035 1777 1995 219 1.000 0.087 -0.449 3.949 0.088 0.137 12 049037 1780 1995 216 1.000 0.081 -0.574 4.667 0.084 0.052 13 049041 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.090 -0.643 5.423 0.096 -0.002 14 049043 1758 1995 238 1.000 0.073 -0.841 5.140 0.073 0.076 15 049045 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.104 -1.239 6.403 0.103 0.119 16 049047 1757 1995 239 1.000 0.099 -0.991 6.301 0.103 0.045 17 049051 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.086 -0.216 3.027 0.082 0.210 18 049053 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.083 -0.702 4.882 0.088 0.048 19 049055 1763 1995 233 1.000 0.090 -0.579 4.107 0.088 0.192 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 049057 1756 1995 240 1.000 0.099 -0.738 4.030 0.102 0.129 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 1.000 0.089 -0.604 4.639 0.090 0.098 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.009 0.305 0.845 0.009 0.083 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 219 1.000 0.088 -0.625 4.591 0.088 0.091 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.016 0.185 1.064 0.014 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 189 1.000 0.073 -1.239 3.027 0.073 -0.062 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 210 1.000 0.082 -0.720 4.069 0.083 0.042 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 239 1.000 0.098 -0.535 5.132 0.097 0.151 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 1.000 0.104 0.336 6.403 0.103 0.276 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.609 0.070 0.005 0.068 3.260 0.431 0.825 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.431 SERIES 049031 AND 049057 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.825 SERIES 049011 AND 049017 205 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 88.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1781. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 10. 105. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.732 0.614 0.587 0.540 0.521 0.714 0.752 0.681 SDEV 0.089 0.115 0.146 0.163 0.162 0.097 0.074 0.095 SERR 0.028 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.007 0.005 0.007 EPS 0.972 0.968 0.966 0.959 0.956 0.980 0.984 0.977 NSS 12.7 19.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1995 240 1.001 0.071 -1.050 6.179 0.076 -0.024 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.055 -0.013 0.066 76 164 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.29 1.00 1.07 1.36 4.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.74 0.87 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.024 0.129 0.043 0.049 -0.035 0.024 -0.008 -0.093 -0.053 -0.057 PACF -0.024 0.129 0.050 0.036 -0.045 0.009 -0.001 -0.098 -0.057 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.129 0.129 0.131 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.134 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.020 -0.021 0.130 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1756 1995 240 1.001 0.071 -1.050 6.179 0.076 -0.024 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.024 0.129 0.043 0.049 -0.035 0.024 -0.008 -0.093 -0.053 -0.057 PACF -0.024 0.129 0.050 0.036 -0.045 0.009 -0.001 -0.098 -0.057 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.129 0.129 0.131 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.134 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.020 -0.021 0.130 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES