RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM053T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM053T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 050 1 Mźnstertal (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_LATE PCAB - 050 2 Germany Norway spruce 490 4751-747 1881 1995 - 050 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 050065 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1920 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 050075 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1890 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 050061 1882 1995 114 8.508 1.533 -4.523 24.482 0.161 -0.034 2 050063 1883 1995 113 8.472 1.491 -3.521 18.908 0.128 0.228 3 050065 1882 1995 114 8.737 1.049 -5.648 45.342 0.088 0.089 4 050067 1883 1995 113 8.801 0.563 -0.951 3.784 0.049 0.501 5 050071 1881 1995 115 8.292 0.700 -0.003 2.654 0.056 0.606 6 050073 1881 1958 78 8.821 0.569 -0.416 3.222 0.055 0.411 7 050075 1881 1926 46 8.722 0.742 -0.792 3.114 0.057 0.608 8 050077 1881 1995 115 8.671 0.593 -0.148 2.465 0.055 0.479 9 050081 1883 1995 113 8.257 0.751 -0.560 3.084 0.077 0.378 10 050083 1881 1995 115 7.563 0.768 -0.024 2.559 0.082 0.447 11 050085 1881 1995 115 7.811 0.745 -0.416 3.503 0.093 0.326 12 050087 1893 1995 103 8.600 1.398 -4.545 26.623 0.152 0.002 13 050091 1882 1995 114 8.138 2.493 -2.792 9.123 0.341 0.083 14 050093 1885 1995 111 8.512 0.860 -0.833 3.717 0.089 0.371 15 050095 1896 1995 100 8.625 0.579 -0.430 2.959 0.070 0.126 16 050097 1881 1995 115 8.623 1.533 -4.926 27.269 0.138 0.231 17 050101 1884 1995 112 7.967 0.580 -0.989 6.344 0.052 0.585 18 050103 1884 1995 112 8.240 0.694 -0.571 3.162 0.053 0.666 19 050105 1887 1995 109 8.441 0.644 -0.025 2.475 0.055 0.592 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 050107 1884 1995 112 8.270 0.512 -0.425 3.551 0.059 0.275 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1881 TO 1995 115 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 8.404 0.940 -1.627 9.917 0.096 0.349 STANDARD DEVIATION 17 0.339 0.505 1.907 12.028 0.068 0.217 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 8.490 0.743 -0.681 3.527 0.074 0.374 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.400 0.637 2.741 10.994 0.055 0.366 MINIMUM VALUE 41 7.563 0.512 -5.648 2.465 0.049 -0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 8.249 0.587 -3.157 3.022 0.055 0.177 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 114 8.648 1.224 -0.416 14.016 0.110 0.543 MAXIMUM VALUE 115 8.821 2.493 -0.003 45.342 0.341 0.666 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.241 0.234 0.017 0.306 2.155 -0.196 0.734 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.196 SERIES 050085 AND 050091 114 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.734 SERIES 050075 AND 050093 42 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 86.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1891. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 21. 190. 171. 171. 171. 153. 153. 153. 153. RBAR 0.406 0.269 0.272 0.184 0.264 0.286 0.347 0.362 0.421 SDEV 0.235 0.321 0.315 0.318 0.307 0.299 0.279 0.213 0.233 SERR 0.051 0.023 0.024 0.024 0.023 0.024 0.023 0.017 0.019 EPS 0.922 0.880 0.881 0.814 0.872 0.884 0.907 0.911 0.929 NSS 17.2 20.0 19.9 19.4 19.0 19.0 18.5 18.0 18.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1881 1995 115 8.498 0.488 -0.167 2.043 0.040 0.580 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.158 -0.055 1.082 49 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.93 8.23 1.00 1.24 9.47 40.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.79 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 113. 4. 46. 110. 114. 115. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.575 0.473 0.450 0.420 0.450 0.333 0.311 0.323 0.233 0.223 PACF 0.575 0.213 0.178 0.110 0.172 -0.078 0.022 0.060 -0.089 -0.004 95% C.L. 0.187 0.240 0.271 0.296 0.316 0.337 0.349 0.358 0.368 0.373 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.409 0.409 0.132 0.201 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 050061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00228424 8.37698936 2 050063 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00980604 9.03133392 3 050065 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00911585 8.21774769 4 050067 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00549305 8.48831177 5 050071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060223 8.25707054 6 050073 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00910103 8.46153450 7 050075 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03931179 7.71258831 8 050077 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00200686 8.55508041 9 050081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00383209 8.47568607 10 050083 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00481733 7.28311682 11 050085 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00589971 8.15340042 12 050087 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00491741 8.85560799 13 050091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00322606 7.95230865 14 050093 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00457187 8.76800632 15 050095 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00641578 8.94909668 16 050097 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00290010 8.45518494 17 050101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00147299 8.05000973 18 050103 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00498283 7.95847034 19 050105 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00219099 8.56178856 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 050107 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00112751 8.20620632 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 050061 1882 1995 114 1.000 0.181 -4.470 24.113 0.160 -0.036 2 050063 1883 1995 113 1.000 0.173 -3.596 20.285 0.127 0.193 3 050065 1882 1995 114 1.000 0.117 -5.872 49.097 0.086 0.006 4 050067 1883 1995 113 1.000 0.061 -0.609 3.353 0.049 0.462 5 050071 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.084 0.021 2.687 0.056 0.601 6 050073 1881 1958 78 1.000 0.060 -0.565 3.937 0.055 0.323 7 050075 1881 1926 46 1.000 0.062 -0.977 4.320 0.054 0.332 8 050077 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.068 -0.120 2.490 0.055 0.470 9 050081 1883 1995 113 1.000 0.090 -0.508 2.827 0.077 0.364 10 050083 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.099 -0.279 2.626 0.081 0.424 11 050085 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.092 -0.471 3.223 0.092 0.268 12 050087 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.161 -4.669 27.523 0.150 -0.012 13 050091 1882 1995 114 1.000 0.307 -2.767 9.024 0.338 0.081 14 050093 1885 1995 111 1.000 0.100 -0.843 3.739 0.088 0.338 15 050095 1896 1995 100 1.000 0.064 -0.415 3.190 0.070 0.016 16 050097 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.178 -4.872 26.943 0.137 0.226 17 050101 1884 1995 112 1.000 0.072 -1.138 6.882 0.052 0.573 18 050103 1884 1995 112 1.000 0.082 -0.361 2.910 0.053 0.649 19 050105 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.076 -0.092 2.571 0.055 0.580 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 050107 1884 1995 112 1.000 0.062 -0.370 3.355 0.058 0.272 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 1.000 0.109 -1.649 10.255 0.095 0.307 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.000 0.062 1.932 12.664 0.067 0.216 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.087 -0.587 3.547 0.073 0.328 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.073 2.816 11.786 0.055 0.329 MINIMUM VALUE 46 1.000 0.060 -5.872 2.490 0.049 -0.036 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.066 -3.181 2.868 0.055 0.137 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.139 -0.366 14.654 0.109 0.466 MAXIMUM VALUE 115 1.000 0.307 0.021 49.097 0.338 0.649 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 050061 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 050063 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 050065 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 050067 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 050071 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 050073 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 050075 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 050077 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 050081 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 050083 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 050085 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 050087 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 050091 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 050093 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 050095 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 050097 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 050101 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 050103 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 050105 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 050107 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 050061 1882 1995 114 1.000 0.180 -4.524 24.496 0.160 -0.049 2 050063 1883 1995 113 0.999 0.160 -4.454 27.132 0.127 0.108 3 050065 1882 1995 114 1.000 0.111 -6.925 61.130 0.086 -0.104 4 050067 1883 1995 113 1.000 0.049 -0.752 4.211 0.048 0.202 5 050071 1881 1995 115 0.999 0.076 -0.001 2.802 0.056 0.513 6 050073 1881 1958 78 1.000 0.054 -0.313 3.532 0.055 0.207 7 050075 1881 1926 46 1.000 0.054 -0.840 3.373 0.054 0.191 8 050077 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.056 -0.634 3.311 0.054 0.227 9 050081 1883 1995 113 1.000 0.075 -0.405 3.281 0.077 0.115 10 050083 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.093 -0.185 2.824 0.081 0.334 11 050085 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.081 -0.618 3.630 0.092 0.076 12 050087 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.158 -4.913 29.444 0.150 -0.026 13 050091 1882 1995 114 0.999 0.317 -2.441 8.014 0.338 0.034 14 050093 1885 1995 111 1.000 0.090 -0.809 4.536 0.088 0.188 15 050095 1896 1995 100 1.000 0.063 -0.398 3.229 0.070 0.002 16 050097 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.178 -4.854 26.890 0.137 0.210 17 050101 1884 1995 112 1.000 0.062 -0.962 6.048 0.052 0.418 18 050103 1884 1995 112 1.000 0.060 -0.444 2.480 0.053 0.338 19 050105 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.053 -0.386 2.656 0.054 0.181 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 050107 1884 1995 112 1.000 0.053 -0.557 3.286 0.058 0.038 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 1.000 0.101 -1.771 11.315 0.095 0.160 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.000 0.067 2.102 15.132 0.067 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.076 -0.693 3.581 0.073 0.184 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.080 3.046 13.000 0.055 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.999 0.049 -6.925 2.480 0.048 -0.104 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.055 -3.447 3.255 0.054 0.036 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.135 -0.402 16.255 0.109 0.219 MAXIMUM VALUE 115 1.000 0.317 -0.001 61.130 0.338 0.513 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.199 0.188 0.014 0.225 2.187 -0.233 0.601 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.233 SERIES 050061 AND 050075 45 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.601 SERIES 050081 AND 050085 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 86.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1891. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 21. 190. 171. 171. 171. 153. 153. 153. 153. RBAR 0.255 0.290 0.273 0.187 0.280 0.287 0.322 0.330 0.425 SDEV 0.227 0.325 0.302 0.322 0.306 0.288 0.270 0.229 0.228 SERR 0.050 0.024 0.023 0.025 0.023 0.023 0.022 0.019 0.018 EPS 0.855 0.891 0.882 0.816 0.881 0.884 0.897 0.899 0.930 NSS 17.2 20.0 19.9 19.4 19.0 19.0 18.5 18.0 18.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1881 1995 115 1.007 0.043 -0.284 2.537 0.039 0.311 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.241 -0.086 0.145 64 51 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.70 2.52 1.00 1.20 3.72 69.53 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.71 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.308 0.180 0.107 0.071 0.145 0.020 0.001 0.012 -0.087 -0.059 PACF 0.308 0.094 0.032 0.018 0.119 -0.070 -0.023 0.014 -0.105 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.187 0.203 0.209 0.211 0.212 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.216 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.104 0.309 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.289 0.071 0.091 -0.012 0.064 -0.006 -0.159 -0.208 -0.028 -0.052 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.289 2 0.293 -0.013 3 0.294 -0.037 0.081 4 0.299 -0.039 0.100 -0.065 5 0.305 -0.049 0.104 -0.093 0.092 6 0.311 -0.054 0.110 -0.096 0.111 -0.062 7 0.302 -0.038 0.096 -0.079 0.103 -0.016 -0.149 8 0.279 -0.040 0.112 -0.091 0.117 -0.022 -0.104 -0.151 9 0.294 -0.030 0.114 -0.103 0.126 -0.033 -0.100 -0.179 0.099 10 0.299 -0.040 0.108 -0.105 0.133 -0.039 -0.093 -0.181 0.115 -0.056 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 503.56 495.53 497.51 498.76 500.26 501.29 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 502.84 502.25 501.58 502.46 504.10 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.289 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.35 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.11 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.289 0.083 0.024 0.007 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 050061 1 0.013 -0.050 2 050063 1 0.012 0.108 3 050065 1 0.012 -0.105 4 050067 1 0.043 0.205 5 050071 1 0.274 0.513 6 050073 1 0.047 0.208 7 050075 1 0.069 0.208 8 050077 1 0.052 0.227 9 050081 1 0.015 0.119 10 050083 1 0.131 0.335 11 050085 1 0.006 0.076 12 050087 1 0.002 -0.026 13 050091 1 0.005 0.034 14 050093 1 0.041 0.191 15 050095 1 0.020 0.002 16 050097 1 0.095 0.211 17 050101 1 0.202 0.421 18 050103 1 0.118 0.343 19 050105 1 0.035 0.181 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 050107 1 0.027 0.038 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.061 0.162 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.072 0.160 MEDIAN 1 0.038 0.186 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.070 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.002 -0.105 LOWER HINGE 1 0.012 0.036 UPPER HINGE 1 0.082 0.219 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.274 0.513 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 050061 1882 1995 114 1.000 0.180 -4.480 24.182 0.158 -0.005 2 050063 1883 1995 113 1.000 0.159 -4.575 28.396 0.131 -0.001 3 050065 1882 1995 114 1.000 0.110 -6.708 58.538 0.083 -0.003 4 050067 1883 1995 113 1.000 0.048 -0.653 3.630 0.054 -0.007 5 050071 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.065 -0.004 3.420 0.074 -0.061 6 050073 1881 1958 78 1.000 0.053 -0.272 3.366 0.061 -0.013 7 050075 1881 1926 46 1.000 0.053 -0.997 3.891 0.059 -0.014 8 050077 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.054 -0.653 3.272 0.060 0.004 9 050081 1883 1995 113 1.000 0.075 -0.368 3.218 0.081 0.000 10 050083 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.087 -0.083 3.188 0.095 -0.049 11 050085 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.081 -0.629 3.650 0.095 0.001 12 050087 1893 1995 103 1.000 0.158 -4.886 29.209 0.149 -0.001 13 050091 1882 1995 114 1.000 0.316 -2.437 8.015 0.329 0.002 14 050093 1885 1995 111 1.000 0.088 -0.740 4.063 0.097 -0.015 15 050095 1896 1995 100 1.000 0.063 -0.398 3.232 0.070 0.000 16 050097 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.172 -4.500 25.714 0.146 0.047 17 050101 1884 1995 112 1.000 0.056 -0.939 6.252 0.062 -0.066 18 050103 1884 1995 112 1.000 0.056 -0.386 2.577 0.062 -0.002 19 050105 1887 1995 109 1.000 0.052 -0.266 2.679 0.059 -0.009 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 050107 1884 1995 112 1.000 0.053 -0.539 3.246 0.059 0.006 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 1.000 0.099 -1.726 11.187 0.099 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.000 0.068 2.065 14.653 0.064 0.025 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.070 -0.653 3.640 0.077 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.081 3.081 12.860 0.053 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 46 1.000 0.048 -6.708 2.577 0.054 -0.066 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.054 -3.459 3.239 0.061 -0.014 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.134 -0.377 16.099 0.114 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 115 1.000 0.316 -0.004 58.538 0.329 0.047 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.196 0.192 0.014 0.192 2.182 -0.246 0.598 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.246 SERIES 050061 AND 050075 45 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.598 SERIES 050071 AND 050073 78 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 86.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1891. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 21. 190. 171. 171. 171. 153. 153. 153. 153. RBAR 0.246 0.279 0.289 0.199 0.286 0.276 0.293 0.337 0.415 SDEV 0.222 0.322 0.303 0.315 0.293 0.267 0.258 0.225 0.223 SERR 0.048 0.023 0.023 0.024 0.022 0.022 0.021 0.018 0.018 EPS 0.849 0.885 0.890 0.828 0.884 0.878 0.884 0.901 0.927 NSS 17.2 20.0 19.9 19.4 19.0 19.0 18.5 18.0 18.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1881 1995 115 1.006 0.041 -0.219 2.569 0.042 0.143 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.296 -0.113 0.171 65 50 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.73 2.51 1.01 1.25 3.76 98.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.71 0.88 0.92 0.99 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.141 0.118 0.071 0.029 0.141 0.008 -0.002 0.032 -0.064 -0.050 PACF 0.141 0.100 0.043 0.003 0.129 -0.033 -0.028 0.027 -0.073 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.187 0.190 0.193 0.194 0.194 0.197 0.197 0.197 0.197 0.198 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.030 0.142 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.015 0.092 0.053 0.000 0.142 -0.012 -0.007 0.043 -0.065 -0.030 PACF -0.015 0.092 0.056 -0.007 0.133 -0.010 -0.033 0.032 -0.060 -0.057 95% C.L. 0.187 0.187 0.188 0.189 0.189 0.192 0.192 0.192 0.193 0.193 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.009 -0.015 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1881 1995 115 1.006 0.043 -0.276 2.581 0.039 0.307 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.305 0.189 0.112 0.069 0.144 0.030 0.007 0.020 -0.066 -0.066 PACF 0.305 0.106 0.032 0.012 0.118 -0.055 -0.025 0.018 -0.084 -0.052 95% C.L. 0.187 0.203 0.209 0.211 0.212 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.216 0.216 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.104 0.306 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.15 MINUTES