RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM054N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM054N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 051 1 Mźnstertal (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MINIMUM ABAL - 051 2 Germany silver fir, European fir 460 4751-746 1864 1995 - 051 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 051023 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 051025 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 051055 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1875 1875 / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 051057 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 0.255 0.035 0.857 4.693 0.099 0.490 2 051013 1873 1995 123 0.242 0.037 1.799 8.100 0.107 0.477 3 051015 1871 1995 125 0.256 0.033 1.348 5.980 0.095 0.370 4 051017 1871 1995 125 0.248 0.038 1.406 5.156 0.114 0.465 5 051021 1879 1995 117 0.224 0.047 2.200 10.504 0.115 0.702 6 051023 1879 1995 117 0.221 0.029 0.369 3.365 0.105 0.430 7 051025 1879 1995 117 0.211 0.025 0.435 3.062 0.089 0.564 8 051027 1879 1995 117 0.200 0.023 0.436 2.669 0.097 0.419 9 051031 1870 1995 126 0.216 0.039 2.816 14.495 0.094 0.523 10 051033 1871 1995 125 0.260 0.039 2.932 17.046 0.090 0.582 11 051035 1871 1995 125 0.238 0.031 2.096 10.486 0.088 0.481 12 051037 1872 1995 124 0.238 0.035 2.225 11.812 0.089 0.656 13 051041 1904 1995 92 0.212 0.024 0.181 3.118 0.104 0.446 14 051043 1904 1995 92 0.247 0.024 0.595 3.455 0.078 0.440 15 051045 1904 1995 92 0.254 0.031 1.108 5.153 0.074 0.593 16 051047 1903 1995 93 0.241 0.032 4.412 32.071 0.076 0.313 17 051051 1864 1995 132 0.254 0.030 0.633 4.221 0.095 0.467 18 051053 1864 1995 132 0.253 0.028 1.132 6.855 0.083 0.405 19 051055 1865 1995 131 0.266 0.038 2.441 11.730 0.090 0.439 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 0.244 0.029 2.348 14.145 0.090 0.343 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1864 TO 1995 132 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 117 0.239 0.032 1.589 8.906 0.094 0.480 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.019 0.006 1.094 7.001 0.011 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 0.243 0.031 1.377 6.418 0.092 0.466 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 13 0.032 0.009 1.673 7.933 0.013 0.119 MINIMUM VALUE 92 0.200 0.023 0.181 2.669 0.074 0.313 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 112 0.222 0.028 0.614 3.838 0.089 0.424 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 0.254 0.038 2.287 11.771 0.102 0.544 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 0.266 0.047 4.412 32.071 0.115 0.702 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.269 0.220 0.016 -0.178 2.644 -0.255 0.736 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.255 SERIES 051011 AND 051045 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.736 SERIES 051031 AND 051033 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1874. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 3. 120. 120. 120. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.909 0.531 0.651 0.266 0.273 0.388 0.448 0.410 0.341 0.395 SDEV 0.043 0.203 0.187 0.289 0.242 0.230 0.262 0.222 0.263 0.275 SERR 0.025 0.019 0.017 0.026 0.018 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.020 EPS 0.990 0.948 0.970 0.874 0.882 0.927 0.942 0.933 0.912 0.929 NSS 9.9 16.0 17.2 19.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 190. RBAR 0.356 SDEV 0.232 SERR 0.017 EPS 0.917 NSS 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 0.241 0.024 2.701 14.772 0.068 0.407 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.377 0.187 -0.015 29 103 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 1.34 1.01 1.08 2.43 11.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.69 0.85 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 124. 8. 92. 117. 126. 132. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.404 0.175 0.105 0.079 0.071 0.012 0.183 0.179 0.239 0.291 PACF 0.404 0.014 0.035 0.028 0.029 -0.040 0.219 0.040 0.160 0.159 95% C.L. 0.174 0.200 0.205 0.207 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.213 0.218 0.225 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.225 0.473 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 051011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011711 0.24761695 2 051013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007926 0.23719978 3 051015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006691 0.26053548 4 051017 1 0.10535622 0.09074549 0.00000000 0.23944719 5 051021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00074698 0.17960359 6 051023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035966 0.20033075 7 051025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016169 0.20120494 8 051027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028428 0.18297082 9 051031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003975 0.21358730 10 051033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000123 0.26031741 11 051035 1 0.06516587 0.07845125 0.00000000 0.23145245 12 051037 1 0.05510780 0.04738137 0.00000000 0.22860889 13 051041 1 0.07589262 0.17477833 0.00000000 0.20763719 14 051043 1 0.05546170 0.09607565 0.00000000 0.24130544 15 051045 1 0.09023487 0.01048089 0.00000000 0.19653428 16 051047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027513 0.25400653 17 051051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010542 0.26087439 18 051053 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010070 0.24587902 19 051055 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030984 0.28731209 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 051057 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006144 0.24856061 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.137 1.018 5.410 0.099 0.477 2 051013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.153 1.939 8.879 0.106 0.469 3 051015 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.127 1.241 5.667 0.094 0.367 4 051017 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.131 0.964 3.842 0.113 0.357 5 051021 1879 1995 117 1.001 0.168 1.472 9.009 0.114 0.580 6 051023 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.123 0.730 5.326 0.108 0.329 7 051025 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.116 0.441 3.652 0.090 0.508 8 051027 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.105 0.368 3.198 0.096 0.269 9 051031 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.179 2.972 15.399 0.094 0.516 10 051033 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.151 2.928 17.021 0.090 0.578 11 051035 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.114 1.437 7.883 0.088 0.428 12 051037 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.133 1.610 8.237 0.089 0.592 13 051041 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.101 -0.065 3.070 0.103 0.296 14 051043 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.088 0.974 5.500 0.077 0.307 15 051045 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.103 1.475 6.536 0.073 0.442 16 051047 1903 1995 93 1.000 0.125 3.763 25.897 0.075 0.314 17 051051 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.119 0.688 4.041 0.094 0.463 18 051053 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.110 1.379 8.492 0.083 0.378 19 051055 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.136 2.288 10.820 0.092 0.469 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.117 2.081 12.310 0.088 0.357 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 1.000 0.127 1.485 8.509 0.093 0.425 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.023 0.959 5.651 0.011 0.100 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.124 1.408 7.209 0.093 0.435 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.025 1.163 5.231 0.013 0.150 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.088 -0.065 3.070 0.073 0.269 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.112 0.847 4.684 0.088 0.343 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.137 2.010 9.915 0.101 0.493 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 1.001 0.179 3.763 25.897 0.114 0.592 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 051011 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 051013 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 051015 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 051017 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 051021 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 051023 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 051025 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 051027 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 051031 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 051033 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 051035 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 051037 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 051041 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 051043 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 051045 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 051047 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 051051 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 051053 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 051055 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 051057 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 0.999 0.114 1.076 5.468 0.099 0.269 2 051013 1873 1995 123 0.999 0.130 1.609 7.794 0.107 0.302 3 051015 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.122 1.371 6.246 0.095 0.331 4 051017 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.120 1.099 4.670 0.113 0.237 5 051021 1879 1995 117 0.999 0.143 1.719 10.845 0.114 0.459 6 051023 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.114 0.679 5.896 0.108 0.223 7 051025 1879 1995 117 0.999 0.109 0.515 4.059 0.090 0.445 8 051027 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.100 0.345 3.247 0.096 0.206 9 051031 1870 1995 126 0.999 0.149 2.334 12.495 0.094 0.444 10 051033 1871 1995 125 0.999 0.133 2.781 16.379 0.090 0.497 11 051035 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.109 1.478 8.428 0.088 0.385 12 051037 1872 1995 124 0.999 0.126 1.618 8.532 0.089 0.551 13 051041 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.090 -0.380 2.659 0.103 0.080 14 051043 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.085 0.831 4.949 0.077 0.271 15 051045 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.100 1.414 6.389 0.073 0.409 16 051047 1903 1995 93 1.000 0.104 2.644 16.953 0.076 0.238 17 051051 1864 1995 132 0.999 0.106 0.340 3.773 0.094 0.344 18 051053 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.102 1.072 6.212 0.083 0.310 19 051055 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.131 2.263 10.801 0.092 0.438 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.106 1.685 8.354 0.089 0.287 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 1.000 0.115 1.325 7.707 0.093 0.336 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.017 0.813 4.040 0.011 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.111 1.392 6.317 0.093 0.321 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.025 0.947 4.857 0.013 0.187 MINIMUM VALUE 92 0.999 0.085 -0.380 2.659 0.073 0.080 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 0.999 0.103 0.755 4.809 0.088 0.254 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.128 1.702 9.667 0.101 0.441 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 1.000 0.149 2.781 16.953 0.114 0.551 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.335 0.153 0.011 0.323 3.148 -0.051 0.769 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.051 SERIES 051045 AND 051057 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.769 SERIES 051031 AND 051037 124 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1874. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 3. 120. 120. 120. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.896 0.524 0.639 0.273 0.291 0.386 0.464 0.414 0.359 0.414 SDEV 0.055 0.208 0.168 0.283 0.249 0.223 0.221 0.219 0.253 0.258 SERR 0.032 0.019 0.015 0.026 0.018 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.018 0.019 EPS 0.988 0.946 0.968 0.879 0.891 0.926 0.945 0.934 0.918 0.934 NSS 9.9 16.0 17.2 19.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 190. RBAR 0.371 SDEV 0.236 SERR 0.017 EPS 0.922 NSS 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 0.995 0.083 1.686 8.922 0.071 0.272 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.295 0.104 -0.026 40 92 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 1.21 1.01 1.17 2.37 13.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.78 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.270 0.019 -0.065 -0.058 -0.058 -0.165 -0.041 0.037 0.067 0.091 PACF 0.270 -0.058 -0.060 -0.025 -0.040 -0.157 0.043 0.031 0.027 0.061 95% C.L. 0.174 0.186 0.186 0.187 0.188 0.188 0.192 0.193 0.193 0.194 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.092 0.298 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.243 0.023 -0.066 -0.074 -0.039 -0.188 -0.105 0.090 0.122 0.179 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.243 2 0.252 -0.039 3 0.249 -0.022 -0.066 4 0.247 -0.023 -0.055 -0.044 5 0.246 -0.024 -0.055 -0.041 -0.011 6 0.244 -0.032 -0.066 -0.046 0.036 -0.193 7 0.239 -0.031 -0.067 -0.048 0.035 -0.187 -0.025 8 0.242 -0.007 -0.072 -0.041 0.044 -0.183 -0.056 0.129 9 0.236 -0.004 -0.062 -0.044 0.046 -0.179 -0.055 0.116 0.052 10 0.229 -0.018 -0.056 -0.022 0.041 -0.174 -0.048 0.116 0.024 0.119 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 708.86 702.85 704.65 706.07 707.82 709.80 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 706.79 708.71 708.51 710.15 710.26 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.243 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.89 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.25 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.243 0.059 0.014 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 051011 1 0.073 0.270 2 051013 1 0.103 0.304 3 051015 1 0.119 0.345 4 051017 1 0.058 0.238 5 051021 1 0.213 0.461 6 051023 1 0.050 0.224 7 051025 1 0.203 0.449 8 051027 1 0.049 0.207 9 051031 1 0.252 0.480 10 051033 1 0.260 0.499 11 051035 1 0.154 0.388 12 051037 1 0.307 0.553 13 051041 1 0.009 0.081 14 051043 1 0.093 0.272 15 051045 1 0.191 0.410 16 051047 1 0.104 0.298 17 051051 1 0.130 0.358 18 051053 1 0.119 0.339 19 051055 1 0.196 0.442 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 051057 1 0.106 0.317 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.140 0.347 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.080 0.116 MEDIAN 1 0.119 0.342 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.117 0.174 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.009 0.081 LOWER HINGE 1 0.083 0.271 UPPER HINGE 1 0.200 0.445 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.307 0.553 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.109 1.163 6.768 0.113 0.001 2 051013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.124 1.562 8.226 0.127 0.033 3 051015 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.114 1.404 6.816 0.114 -0.022 4 051017 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.117 1.070 4.712 0.128 0.009 5 051021 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.127 1.517 9.062 0.137 0.018 6 051023 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.111 0.504 5.327 0.121 -0.004 7 051025 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.097 0.372 3.807 0.104 0.020 8 051027 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.098 0.246 3.248 0.108 -0.018 9 051031 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.128 2.738 17.875 0.119 0.041 10 051033 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.116 3.023 20.835 0.112 0.062 11 051035 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.100 1.652 10.580 0.106 0.023 12 051037 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.105 1.884 11.578 0.113 0.017 13 051041 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.090 -0.413 2.770 0.107 -0.003 14 051043 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.082 1.125 6.115 0.085 0.040 15 051045 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.091 1.670 8.677 0.093 -0.069 16 051047 1903 1995 93 1.000 0.098 2.515 15.515 0.088 -0.031 17 051051 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.099 0.309 3.498 0.111 -0.027 18 051053 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.095 0.940 5.616 0.099 -0.051 19 051055 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.118 1.698 10.498 0.115 0.012 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.100 1.572 8.005 0.103 -0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 1.000 0.106 1.328 8.476 0.110 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.013 0.865 4.917 0.013 0.032 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.103 1.461 7.410 0.111 0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.019 0.962 5.520 0.013 0.041 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.082 -0.413 2.770 0.085 -0.069 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.097 0.722 5.019 0.104 -0.020 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.116 1.684 10.539 0.117 0.021 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 1.000 0.128 3.023 20.835 0.137 0.062 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.374 0.131 0.010 0.445 3.033 0.110 0.740 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.110 SERIES 051021 AND 051047 93 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.740 SERIES 051031 AND 051033 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1874. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 3. 120. 120. 120. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.851 0.544 0.624 0.337 0.365 0.444 0.506 0.421 0.355 0.408 SDEV 0.081 0.199 0.151 0.253 0.209 0.190 0.171 0.178 0.231 0.237 SERR 0.046 0.018 0.014 0.023 0.015 0.014 0.012 0.013 0.017 0.017 EPS 0.983 0.950 0.966 0.907 0.920 0.941 0.953 0.936 0.917 0.932 NSS 9.9 16.0 17.2 19.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 190. RBAR 0.401 SDEV 0.246 SERR 0.018 EPS 0.931 NSS 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 0.997 0.076 1.632 8.975 0.083 -0.059 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.294 0.088 -0.018 39 93 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.88 1.00 1.09 1.97 22.25 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.72 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.058 -0.039 -0.051 -0.019 0.007 -0.149 -0.026 0.035 0.033 0.092 PACF -0.058 -0.043 -0.056 -0.027 -0.001 -0.154 -0.049 0.016 0.016 0.089 95% C.L. 0.174 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.179 0.179 0.180 0.180 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 -0.047 -0.055 -0.022 -0.004 -0.151 -0.033 0.036 0.042 0.093 PACF 0.003 -0.047 -0.055 -0.024 -0.009 -0.157 -0.038 0.020 0.021 0.087 95% C.L. 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.180 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 0.997 0.079 1.720 9.056 0.069 0.234 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.233 -0.004 -0.059 -0.045 -0.052 -0.159 -0.057 0.031 0.065 0.098 PACF 0.233 -0.062 -0.047 -0.022 -0.041 -0.151 0.010 0.032 0.032 0.071 95% C.L. 0.174 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.185 0.189 0.189 0.189 0.190 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.069 0.257 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES