RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM054T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM054T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 051 1 Mźnstertal (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_LATE ABAL - 051 2 Germany silver fir, European fir 460 4751-746 1864 1995 - 051 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 051023 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 051055 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1875 1875 / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 051057 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 7.804 0.634 -0.154 2.778 0.075 0.371 2 051013 1873 1995 123 7.501 0.686 -0.109 2.405 0.078 0.371 3 051015 1871 1995 125 7.764 0.650 -0.082 2.892 0.081 0.296 4 051017 1871 1995 125 7.917 0.589 -0.362 2.879 0.080 0.151 5 051021 1879 1995 117 7.100 0.910 -0.305 2.237 0.098 0.524 6 051023 1879 1995 117 6.963 0.686 0.044 2.506 0.102 0.192 7 051025 1879 1995 117 7.230 0.837 -0.192 2.474 0.102 0.421 8 051027 1879 1995 117 7.048 0.853 -0.216 2.442 0.112 0.341 9 051031 1870 1995 126 6.989 0.887 -0.225 2.590 0.120 0.348 10 051033 1871 1995 125 7.280 0.842 -0.331 2.472 0.102 0.380 11 051035 1871 1995 125 7.098 0.785 -0.016 2.214 0.108 0.256 12 051037 1872 1995 124 7.176 0.767 -0.136 2.576 0.097 0.389 13 051041 1904 1995 92 7.102 0.696 -0.184 2.662 0.097 0.234 14 051043 1904 1995 92 7.116 0.682 -0.280 2.296 0.097 0.247 15 051045 1904 1995 92 7.385 0.811 -0.031 2.306 0.091 0.435 16 051047 1903 1995 93 7.168 0.657 -0.272 2.817 0.088 0.218 17 051051 1864 1995 132 7.682 0.664 -0.209 2.898 0.092 0.162 18 051053 1864 1995 132 7.548 0.788 0.085 2.861 0.095 0.390 19 051055 1865 1995 131 7.796 0.667 0.083 2.680 0.085 0.222 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 7.693 0.758 -0.196 2.606 0.102 0.140 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1864 TO 1995 132 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 7.368 0.743 -0.155 2.579 0.095 0.304 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.314 0.093 0.133 0.225 0.012 0.107 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 7.255 0.727 -0.188 2.583 0.097 0.318 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.586 0.159 0.192 0.374 0.015 0.165 MINIMUM VALUE 92 6.963 0.589 -0.362 2.214 0.075 0.140 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 115 7.101 0.665 -0.249 2.423 0.087 0.220 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 7.688 0.824 -0.056 2.797 0.102 0.385 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 7.917 0.910 0.085 2.898 0.120 0.524 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.504 0.128 0.009 -0.109 3.111 0.126 0.825 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.126 SERIES 051011 AND 051045 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.825 SERIES 051025 AND 051027 117 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1874. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 3. 120. 120. 120. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.706 0.350 0.664 0.658 0.546 0.644 0.662 0.599 0.517 0.397 SDEV 0.043 0.254 0.161 0.182 0.226 0.145 0.163 0.206 0.194 0.214 SERR 0.025 0.023 0.015 0.017 0.016 0.011 0.012 0.015 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.960 0.896 0.972 0.974 0.960 0.973 0.975 0.968 0.955 0.929 NSS 9.9 16.0 17.2 19.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 190. RBAR 0.411 SDEV 0.231 SERR 0.017 EPS 0.933 NSS 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 7.417 0.558 -0.028 2.459 0.073 0.262 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.407 -0.142 1.635 25 107 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.50 1.00 1.08 1.57 3.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.68 0.87 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 124. 8. 92. 117. 126. 132. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.260 0.185 0.215 0.178 0.079 0.025 0.121 0.056 0.116 0.043 PACF 0.260 0.126 0.153 0.086 -0.023 -0.051 0.089 -0.002 0.098 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.174 0.185 0.191 0.198 0.203 0.204 0.204 0.206 0.207 0.209 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.084 0.264 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 051011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00097045 7.74430370 2 051013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00113393 7.43034649 3 051015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00080805 7.71309280 4 051017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00126298 7.99620771 5 051021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00313237 7.28472471 6 051023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00444184 7.23805904 7 051025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00212276 7.35507202 8 051027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00481327 7.33193207 9 051031 1 0.93746924 0.03082403 0.00000000 6.75610876 10 051033 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060178 7.24240780 11 051035 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00032227 7.07785654 12 051037 1 0.78489786 0.03335929 0.00000000 6.99275780 13 051041 1 0.62179679 0.02418301 0.00000000 6.85613585 14 051043 1 1.16107130 0.01543597 0.00000000 6.50099897 15 051045 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01650687 8.15289497 16 051047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01077751 7.67503738 17 051051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063438 7.72415590 18 051053 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00449401 7.84657860 19 051055 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00063650 7.75385904 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 051057 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00514290 8.04066181 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.081 -0.133 2.783 0.075 0.365 2 051013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.091 -0.112 2.392 0.078 0.363 3 051015 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.084 -0.099 2.908 0.080 0.292 4 051017 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.074 -0.328 2.823 0.079 0.147 5 051021 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.128 -0.200 2.235 0.098 0.515 6 051023 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.096 0.009 2.520 0.101 0.130 7 051025 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.116 -0.112 2.474 0.101 0.412 8 051027 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.119 -0.141 2.556 0.111 0.315 9 051031 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.124 -0.028 2.798 0.119 0.300 10 051033 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.116 -0.332 2.458 0.102 0.375 11 051035 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.111 -0.021 2.213 0.107 0.254 12 051037 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.104 -0.058 2.771 0.096 0.352 13 051041 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.096 0.023 2.734 0.096 0.194 14 051043 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.090 0.024 2.437 0.096 0.135 15 051045 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.093 0.017 2.515 0.090 0.196 16 051047 1903 1995 93 1.000 0.083 -0.216 3.079 0.087 0.046 17 051051 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.086 -0.184 2.895 0.091 0.161 18 051053 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.102 0.280 3.102 0.094 0.371 19 051055 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.085 0.068 2.702 0.084 0.209 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.095 -0.096 2.498 0.102 0.066 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 1.000 0.099 -0.082 2.645 0.094 0.260 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.016 0.140 0.253 0.012 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.095 -0.098 2.629 0.096 0.273 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.027 0.175 0.345 0.016 0.210 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.074 -0.332 2.213 0.075 0.046 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.086 -0.162 2.466 0.086 0.154 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.113 0.013 2.811 0.102 0.364 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 1.000 0.128 0.280 3.102 0.119 0.515 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 051011 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 051013 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 051015 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 051017 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 051021 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 051023 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 051025 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 051027 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 051031 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 051033 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 051035 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 051037 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 051041 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 051043 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 051045 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 051047 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 051051 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 051053 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 051055 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 051057 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.077 -0.024 2.768 0.075 0.287 2 051013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.085 -0.253 2.540 0.078 0.274 3 051015 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.080 -0.093 2.983 0.080 0.236 4 051017 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.073 -0.345 2.855 0.079 0.115 5 051021 1879 1995 117 0.999 0.114 -0.243 2.328 0.098 0.401 6 051023 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.094 -0.004 2.468 0.101 0.109 7 051025 1879 1995 117 0.999 0.104 -0.105 2.451 0.101 0.286 8 051027 1879 1995 117 0.999 0.112 -0.180 2.452 0.110 0.232 9 051031 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.119 -0.093 2.795 0.119 0.248 10 051033 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.108 -0.132 2.595 0.102 0.257 11 051035 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.104 0.114 2.465 0.107 0.151 12 051037 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.102 -0.010 2.854 0.096 0.329 13 051041 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.092 0.053 2.730 0.096 0.115 14 051043 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.086 0.059 2.507 0.095 0.040 15 051045 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.090 0.073 2.851 0.090 0.147 16 051047 1903 1995 93 1.000 0.082 -0.197 3.047 0.087 0.019 17 051051 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.083 -0.271 2.896 0.091 0.100 18 051053 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.092 0.082 2.684 0.094 0.232 19 051055 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.076 -0.366 2.903 0.084 0.032 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.090 -0.184 2.499 0.102 -0.039 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 1.000 0.093 -0.106 2.683 0.094 0.179 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.014 0.147 0.211 0.011 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.091 -0.099 2.707 0.096 0.191 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.022 0.245 0.371 0.016 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 92 0.999 0.073 -0.366 2.328 0.075 -0.039 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.083 -0.220 2.483 0.086 0.105 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.104 0.025 2.854 0.101 0.266 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 1.000 0.119 0.114 3.047 0.119 0.401 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.523 0.120 0.009 -0.085 3.042 0.194 0.819 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.194 SERIES 051045 AND 051057 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.819 SERIES 051031 AND 051037 124 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1874. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 3. 120. 120. 120. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.710 0.361 0.676 0.664 0.556 0.648 0.685 0.585 0.480 0.375 SDEV 0.069 0.249 0.153 0.187 0.217 0.148 0.145 0.216 0.204 0.223 SERR 0.040 0.023 0.014 0.017 0.016 0.011 0.011 0.016 0.015 0.016 EPS 0.960 0.900 0.973 0.974 0.962 0.974 0.977 0.966 0.949 0.923 NSS 9.9 16.0 17.2 19.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 190. RBAR 0.418 SDEV 0.223 SERR 0.016 EPS 0.935 NSS 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.070 -0.027 2.495 0.072 0.173 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.090 -0.027 0.089 29 103 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.29 1.01 1.03 1.33 2.83 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.61 0.87 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.171 0.099 0.103 0.052 -0.027 -0.096 0.022 -0.057 0.038 -0.053 PACF 0.171 0.071 0.078 0.018 -0.054 -0.100 0.054 -0.050 0.073 -0.067 95% C.L. 0.174 0.179 0.181 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.185 0.185 0.185 0.185 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.035 0.173 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.223 0.128 0.142 0.042 -0.021 -0.086 -0.006 -0.063 0.021 -0.068 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.223 2 0.204 0.082 3 0.196 0.061 0.103 4 0.198 0.062 0.107 -0.017 5 0.197 0.068 0.110 -0.007 -0.052 6 0.192 0.067 0.120 -0.001 -0.033 -0.094 7 0.195 0.068 0.120 -0.005 -0.036 -0.101 0.035 8 0.197 0.063 0.118 -0.005 -0.030 -0.097 0.044 -0.047 9 0.200 0.060 0.125 -0.003 -0.030 -0.106 0.040 -0.061 0.069 10 0.206 0.055 0.129 -0.012 -0.032 -0.106 0.050 -0.056 0.086 -0.084 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 714.21 709.50 710.61 711.20 713.16 714.80 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 715.63 717.47 719.17 720.54 721.61 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.223 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.95 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.21 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.223 0.050 0.011 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 051011 1 0.092 0.287 2 051013 1 0.076 0.274 3 051015 1 0.080 0.237 4 051017 1 0.014 0.115 5 051021 1 0.207 0.406 6 051023 1 0.012 0.110 7 051025 1 0.089 0.292 8 051027 1 0.061 0.233 9 051031 1 0.068 0.248 10 051033 1 0.071 0.259 11 051035 1 0.029 0.151 12 051037 1 0.112 0.333 13 051041 1 0.013 0.115 14 051043 1 0.005 0.040 15 051045 1 0.026 0.149 16 051047 1 0.002 0.019 17 051051 1 0.024 0.101 18 051053 1 0.059 0.233 19 051055 1 0.012 0.032 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 051057 1 0.002 -0.039 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.053 0.180 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.050 0.118 MEDIAN 1 0.044 0.192 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.065 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.002 -0.039 LOWER HINGE 1 0.013 0.105 UPPER HINGE 1 0.078 0.267 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.207 0.406 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.074 -0.108 2.771 0.086 -0.030 2 051013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.082 -0.388 2.955 0.091 0.005 3 051015 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.078 -0.137 2.938 0.091 -0.038 4 051017 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.072 -0.341 2.840 0.085 0.002 5 051021 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.104 -0.161 2.721 0.121 -0.095 6 051023 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.094 -0.054 2.524 0.107 -0.001 7 051025 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.100 -0.057 2.614 0.118 -0.014 8 051027 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.109 -0.224 2.753 0.125 -0.020 9 051031 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.116 -0.147 2.815 0.132 -0.020 10 051033 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.104 -0.020 2.806 0.113 -0.014 11 051035 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.103 0.076 2.463 0.116 -0.012 12 051037 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.097 0.053 2.938 0.109 -0.008 13 051041 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.091 -0.045 2.747 0.100 -0.001 14 051043 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.086 0.054 2.517 0.098 -0.002 15 051045 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.089 0.128 2.789 0.098 0.010 16 051047 1903 1995 93 1.000 0.082 -0.191 3.008 0.088 -0.001 17 051051 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.083 -0.264 2.806 0.096 -0.012 18 051053 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.090 0.063 2.875 0.105 -0.017 19 051055 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.076 -0.358 2.869 0.085 0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.090 -0.167 2.533 0.100 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 1.000 0.091 -0.114 2.764 0.103 -0.013 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.012 0.151 0.159 0.014 0.023 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.090 -0.122 2.797 0.100 -0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.019 0.224 0.205 0.023 0.019 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.072 -0.388 2.463 0.085 -0.095 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.082 -0.208 2.668 0.091 -0.019 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.101 0.016 2.872 0.114 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 1.000 0.116 0.128 3.008 0.132 0.010 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.519 0.124 0.009 -0.069 2.996 0.168 0.830 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.168 SERIES 051015 AND 051045 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.830 SERIES 051031 AND 051037 124 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1874. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 3. 120. 120. 120. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.730 0.393 0.686 0.658 0.551 0.649 0.653 0.543 0.475 0.373 SDEV 0.061 0.222 0.154 0.211 0.232 0.151 0.151 0.236 0.210 0.239 SERR 0.035 0.020 0.014 0.019 0.017 0.011 0.011 0.017 0.015 0.017 EPS 0.964 0.912 0.974 0.974 0.961 0.974 0.974 0.960 0.948 0.922 NSS 9.9 16.0 17.2 19.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 190. RBAR 0.424 SDEV 0.240 SERR 0.017 EPS 0.936 NSS 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.068 -0.088 2.494 0.079 -0.039 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.074 -0.022 0.082 23 109 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.40 1.01 1.11 1.51 5.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.63 0.87 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.038 0.028 0.076 0.029 -0.037 -0.094 0.051 -0.064 0.056 -0.033 PACF -0.038 0.027 0.078 0.035 -0.040 -0.107 0.040 -0.049 0.069 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.175 0.176 0.176 0.177 0.178 0.179 0.179 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.030 0.079 0.031 -0.040 -0.094 0.045 -0.060 0.053 -0.035 PACF 0.001 0.030 0.079 0.030 -0.045 -0.103 0.042 -0.048 0.070 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.175 0.175 0.176 0.177 0.178 0.178 0.179 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.070 -0.024 2.538 0.070 0.235 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.233 0.098 0.099 0.039 -0.048 -0.094 0.011 -0.046 0.028 -0.046 PACF 0.233 0.046 0.071 -0.002 -0.070 -0.082 0.056 -0.043 0.065 -0.070 95% C.L. 0.174 0.183 0.185 0.187 0.187 0.187 0.189 0.189 0.189 0.189 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.057 0.235 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.15 MINUTES