RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM054X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM054X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 051 1 Mźnstertal (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MAXIMUM ABAL - 051 2 Germany silver fir, European fir 460 4751-746 1864 1995 - 051 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 051023 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 051055 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1875 1875 / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 051057 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 0.951 0.060 -0.135 2.632 0.055 0.408 2 051013 1873 1995 123 0.923 0.067 -0.502 2.328 0.062 0.393 3 051015 1871 1995 125 0.946 0.065 -0.616 3.091 0.059 0.411 4 051017 1871 1995 125 0.957 0.058 -0.675 3.041 0.051 0.444 5 051021 1879 1995 117 0.889 0.100 -0.820 2.935 0.073 0.676 6 051023 1879 1995 117 0.881 0.072 -0.194 2.464 0.076 0.354 7 051025 1879 1995 117 0.909 0.085 -0.658 3.089 0.071 0.586 8 051027 1879 1995 117 0.892 0.092 -0.646 2.648 0.083 0.461 9 051031 1870 1995 126 0.897 0.088 -0.744 3.498 0.081 0.477 10 051033 1871 1995 125 0.918 0.082 -0.400 2.882 0.083 0.313 11 051035 1871 1995 125 0.900 0.078 -0.284 3.128 0.079 0.375 12 051037 1872 1995 124 0.908 0.080 -0.530 3.388 0.077 0.423 13 051041 1904 1995 92 0.910 0.065 -0.509 2.687 0.064 0.409 14 051043 1904 1995 92 0.904 0.077 -0.844 4.256 0.071 0.498 15 051045 1904 1995 92 0.919 0.081 -0.425 2.298 0.063 0.607 16 051047 1903 1995 93 0.892 0.067 -0.350 2.513 0.059 0.540 17 051051 1864 1995 132 0.939 0.063 -0.667 3.320 0.067 0.208 18 051053 1864 1995 132 0.935 0.076 -0.442 2.667 0.065 0.459 19 051055 1865 1995 131 0.953 0.069 -0.766 4.875 0.058 0.403 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 0.941 0.070 -0.382 2.964 0.067 0.303 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1864 TO 1995 132 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 0.918 0.075 -0.530 3.035 0.068 0.437 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.024 0.011 0.203 0.631 0.010 0.109 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 0.914 0.074 -0.520 2.950 0.067 0.417 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.042 0.016 0.280 0.584 0.016 0.103 MINIMUM VALUE 92 0.881 0.058 -0.844 2.298 0.051 0.208 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 115 0.898 0.066 -0.671 2.640 0.061 0.384 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 0.940 0.081 -0.391 3.224 0.076 0.487 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 0.957 0.100 -0.135 4.875 0.083 0.676 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.545 0.130 0.009 -0.683 3.851 0.098 0.818 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.098 SERIES 051033 AND 051045 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.818 SERIES 051033 AND 051035 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1874. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 3. 120. 120. 120. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.622 0.477 0.794 0.705 0.573 0.682 0.632 0.595 0.508 0.360 SDEV 0.024 0.206 0.085 0.120 0.186 0.114 0.177 0.207 0.202 0.237 SERR 0.014 0.019 0.008 0.011 0.014 0.008 0.013 0.015 0.015 0.017 EPS 0.942 0.936 0.985 0.979 0.964 0.977 0.972 0.967 0.954 0.918 NSS 9.9 16.0 17.2 19.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 190. RBAR 0.335 SDEV 0.218 SERR 0.016 EPS 0.910 NSS 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 0.926 0.056 -0.209 2.358 0.052 0.462 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.572 -0.198 0.233 43 89 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.70 1.01 1.10 1.80 5.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.74 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 124. 8. 92. 117. 126. 132. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.459 0.353 0.354 0.293 0.269 0.169 0.278 0.231 0.252 0.133 PACF 0.459 0.181 0.181 0.066 0.066 -0.063 0.177 0.018 0.106 -0.130 95% C.L. 0.174 0.207 0.225 0.241 0.252 0.260 0.264 0.272 0.278 0.285 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.267 0.343 0.116 0.179 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 051011 1 0.08359943 0.02179562 0.00000000 0.92224449 2 051013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034128 0.94441158 3 051015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00058034 0.98288131 4 051017 1 0.20267257 0.00485766 0.00000000 0.80566472 5 051021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089039 0.94133657 6 051023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087738 0.93378699 7 051025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068396 0.94958442 8 051027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069130 0.93283820 9 051031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00103145 0.96232253 10 051033 1 0.08878566 0.06813665 0.00000000 0.90760887 11 051035 1 0.08922617 0.09441213 0.00000000 0.89271086 12 051037 1 0.14589535 0.01157770 0.00000000 0.83059037 13 051041 1 0.14626445 0.01550944 0.00000000 0.83237970 14 051043 1 0.35168117 0.00489123 0.00000000 0.62196094 15 051045 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00213762 1.01863825 16 051047 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00152696 0.96348763 17 051051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046516 0.96987277 18 051053 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00082412 0.98957670 19 051055 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00058186 0.99141747 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 051057 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094674 1.00379372 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.059 -0.257 2.801 0.054 0.326 2 051013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.071 -0.550 2.421 0.062 0.378 3 051015 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.066 -0.553 3.102 0.059 0.343 4 051017 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.054 -0.572 3.038 0.051 0.309 5 051021 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.109 -0.553 2.881 0.072 0.640 6 051023 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.074 -0.355 2.450 0.076 0.196 7 051025 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.090 -0.427 2.908 0.071 0.544 8 051027 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.100 -0.561 2.664 0.083 0.425 9 051031 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.090 -0.523 3.614 0.081 0.360 10 051033 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.087 -0.348 2.999 0.082 0.288 11 051035 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.085 -0.211 3.219 0.078 0.354 12 051037 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.082 -0.732 3.449 0.076 0.323 13 051041 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.063 -0.281 2.788 0.063 0.238 14 051043 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.076 -0.574 4.500 0.071 0.343 15 051045 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.064 -0.186 2.692 0.062 0.206 16 051047 1903 1995 93 1.000 0.059 -0.177 2.829 0.058 0.279 17 051051 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.065 -0.620 3.435 0.066 0.132 18 051053 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.074 -0.131 2.918 0.065 0.359 19 051055 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.068 -0.764 4.919 0.059 0.328 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.063 -0.204 3.075 0.068 0.038 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 1.000 0.075 -0.429 3.135 0.068 0.320 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.015 0.196 0.624 0.010 0.131 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.073 -0.475 2.958 0.067 0.327 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.023 0.332 0.533 0.016 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.054 -0.764 2.421 0.051 0.038 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.063 -0.566 2.794 0.061 0.258 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.086 -0.234 3.327 0.076 0.360 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 1.000 0.109 -0.131 4.919 0.083 0.640 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 051011 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 051013 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 051015 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 051017 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 051021 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 051023 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 051025 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 051027 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 051031 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 051033 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 051035 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 051037 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 051041 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 051043 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 051045 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 051047 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 051051 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 051053 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 051055 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 051057 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.056 -0.230 2.864 0.054 0.264 2 051013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.069 -0.421 2.422 0.062 0.331 3 051015 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.063 -0.522 3.086 0.059 0.283 4 051017 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.051 -0.585 2.926 0.051 0.225 5 051021 1879 1995 117 0.999 0.098 -0.646 2.937 0.072 0.559 6 051023 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.070 -0.357 2.482 0.076 0.135 7 051025 1879 1995 117 0.999 0.082 -0.432 2.826 0.070 0.447 8 051027 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.096 -0.603 2.577 0.082 0.369 9 051031 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.088 -0.642 3.790 0.081 0.320 10 051033 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.085 -0.343 3.023 0.082 0.235 11 051035 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.082 -0.133 3.378 0.078 0.305 12 051037 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.080 -0.730 3.439 0.076 0.286 13 051041 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.058 -0.382 2.646 0.063 0.098 14 051043 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.069 -0.520 4.803 0.070 0.201 15 051045 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.063 -0.197 3.020 0.062 0.175 16 051047 1903 1995 93 1.000 0.058 -0.173 2.937 0.058 0.228 17 051051 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.062 -0.703 3.714 0.066 0.072 18 051053 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.069 -0.144 3.315 0.065 0.277 19 051055 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.059 -1.348 6.834 0.059 0.120 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.060 -0.284 3.280 0.068 -0.055 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 1.000 0.071 -0.470 3.315 0.068 0.244 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.014 0.281 0.989 0.009 0.136 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.069 -0.426 3.021 0.067 0.249 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.022 0.366 0.564 0.016 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 92 0.999 0.051 -1.348 2.422 0.051 -0.055 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.060 -0.623 2.845 0.060 0.155 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.082 -0.257 3.409 0.076 0.313 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 1.000 0.098 -0.133 6.834 0.082 0.559 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.507 0.135 0.010 -0.350 2.689 0.119 0.802 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.119 SERIES 051043 AND 051057 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.802 SERIES 051033 AND 051035 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1874. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 3. 120. 120. 120. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.617 0.489 0.797 0.717 0.598 0.671 0.672 0.567 0.448 0.318 SDEV 0.034 0.200 0.083 0.122 0.172 0.119 0.159 0.221 0.221 0.241 SERR 0.020 0.018 0.008 0.011 0.012 0.009 0.012 0.016 0.016 0.018 EPS 0.941 0.939 0.985 0.980 0.967 0.976 0.976 0.963 0.942 0.903 NSS 9.9 16.0 17.2 19.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 190. RBAR 0.348 SDEV 0.214 SERR 0.016 EPS 0.914 NSS 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 1.002 0.051 -0.154 2.652 0.051 0.269 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.290 -0.100 0.145 46 86 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.33 1.00 1.06 1.39 4.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.72 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.267 0.141 0.134 0.038 0.009 -0.127 0.018 -0.026 0.025 -0.136 PACF 0.267 0.075 0.086 -0.027 -0.015 -0.149 0.092 -0.030 0.068 -0.187 95% C.L. 0.174 0.186 0.189 0.192 0.192 0.192 0.195 0.195 0.195 0.195 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.077 0.267 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.285 0.164 0.142 0.037 0.022 -0.109 -0.004 -0.029 0.022 -0.134 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.285 2 0.259 0.090 3 0.252 0.070 0.080 4 0.255 0.072 0.090 -0.037 5 0.255 0.072 0.090 -0.037 -0.002 6 0.255 0.067 0.102 -0.027 0.033 -0.136 7 0.263 0.065 0.104 -0.033 0.028 -0.152 0.062 8 0.265 0.062 0.105 -0.034 0.031 -0.151 0.068 -0.021 9 0.266 0.058 0.114 -0.036 0.033 -0.158 0.064 -0.037 0.064 10 0.277 0.051 0.126 -0.064 0.039 -0.164 0.084 -0.027 0.112 -0.179 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 639.68 630.49 631.40 632.55 634.36 636.36 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 635.88 637.37 639.31 640.77 638.49 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.285 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.13 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 108.85 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.285 0.081 0.023 0.007 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 051011 1 0.073 0.264 2 051013 1 0.112 0.334 3 051015 1 0.113 0.284 4 051017 1 0.051 0.227 5 051021 1 0.334 0.570 6 051023 1 0.036 0.136 7 051025 1 0.210 0.456 8 051027 1 0.148 0.372 9 051031 1 0.127 0.321 10 051033 1 0.072 0.239 11 051035 1 0.094 0.307 12 051037 1 0.091 0.293 13 051041 1 0.014 0.099 14 051043 1 0.079 0.202 15 051045 1 0.059 0.178 16 051047 1 0.054 0.232 17 051051 1 0.016 0.072 18 051053 1 0.085 0.277 19 051055 1 0.026 0.122 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 051057 1 0.010 -0.055 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.090 0.246 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.076 0.138 MEDIAN 1 0.076 0.252 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.068 0.157 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.010 -0.055 LOWER HINGE 1 0.044 0.157 UPPER HINGE 1 0.112 0.314 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.334 0.570 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 051011 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.054 -0.267 2.942 0.060 0.017 2 051013 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.065 -0.507 2.601 0.070 0.010 3 051015 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.060 -0.575 3.133 0.070 -0.053 4 051017 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.050 -0.527 2.747 0.056 0.000 5 051021 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.080 -0.517 2.962 0.093 -0.074 6 051023 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.070 -0.457 2.501 0.082 -0.020 7 051025 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.072 -0.391 2.718 0.085 -0.025 8 051027 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.089 -0.544 3.150 0.096 -0.042 9 051031 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.083 -0.892 3.980 0.094 -0.052 10 051033 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.082 -0.395 2.983 0.093 -0.025 11 051035 1871 1995 125 1.000 0.078 -0.288 3.367 0.090 -0.004 12 051037 1872 1995 124 1.000 0.076 -0.633 3.064 0.085 0.028 13 051041 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.058 -0.445 2.640 0.066 -0.006 14 051043 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.068 -0.576 5.475 0.078 -0.040 15 051045 1904 1995 92 1.000 0.062 -0.034 3.114 0.066 0.032 16 051047 1903 1995 93 1.000 0.056 -0.122 2.721 0.064 0.002 17 051051 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.062 -0.752 3.882 0.069 -0.007 18 051053 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.067 -0.296 3.768 0.074 -0.026 19 051055 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.059 -1.170 5.841 0.062 0.014 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 051057 1864 1995 132 1.000 0.060 -0.242 3.302 0.067 -0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 1.000 0.068 -0.481 3.345 0.076 -0.014 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.011 0.260 0.894 0.013 0.028 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.066 -0.482 3.089 0.072 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.018 0.283 0.833 0.021 0.039 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.050 -1.170 2.501 0.056 -0.074 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.060 -0.575 2.734 0.066 -0.033 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.077 -0.292 3.568 0.087 0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 132 1.000 0.089 -0.034 5.841 0.096 0.032 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.504 0.127 0.009 -0.323 2.715 0.138 0.801 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.138 SERIES 051043 AND 051057 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.801 SERIES 051033 AND 051035 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1874. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 3. 120. 120. 120. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.671 0.484 0.800 0.721 0.590 0.678 0.636 0.511 0.456 0.315 SDEV 0.008 0.194 0.078 0.129 0.165 0.110 0.161 0.222 0.201 0.247 SERR 0.005 0.018 0.007 0.012 0.012 0.008 0.012 0.016 0.015 0.018 EPS 0.953 0.938 0.986 0.980 0.966 0.977 0.972 0.954 0.944 0.902 NSS 9.9 16.0 17.2 19.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 190. RBAR 0.362 SDEV 0.232 SERR 0.017 EPS 0.919 NSS 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 1.001 0.049 -0.280 2.617 0.057 -0.019 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.305 -0.105 0.148 46 86 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.34 1.01 1.09 1.44 3.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.75 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.019 0.033 0.090 0.004 0.030 -0.152 0.059 -0.031 0.082 -0.120 PACF -0.019 0.033 0.091 0.006 0.024 -0.161 0.052 -0.025 0.112 -0.134 95% C.L. 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.176 0.176 0.176 0.180 0.180 0.181 0.182 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.034 0.091 0.006 0.027 -0.150 0.056 -0.028 0.079 -0.120 PACF 0.001 0.034 0.091 0.005 0.021 -0.160 0.055 -0.024 0.110 -0.138 95% C.L. 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.176 0.176 0.176 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.181 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1864 1995 132 1.001 0.051 -0.102 2.640 0.050 0.303 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.301 0.140 0.125 0.040 0.003 -0.121 0.013 -0.012 0.029 -0.126 PACF 0.301 0.055 0.075 -0.025 -0.019 -0.139 0.094 -0.022 0.065 -0.182 95% C.L. 0.174 0.189 0.192 0.195 0.195 0.195 0.197 0.197 0.197 0.197 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.093 0.301 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.15 MINUTES