RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM055E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM055E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 054 1 Sirnitz NE (D), EU-Pr. WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 054 2 Germany Norway spruce 940 4747-745 1867 1995 - 054 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 2.085 0.773 1.391 4.472 0.201 0.738 2 054103 1878 1995 118 2.159 0.863 1.665 5.496 0.191 0.783 3 054105 1878 1995 118 2.274 0.750 1.104 4.023 0.197 0.742 4 054107 1878 1995 118 1.959 0.690 0.949 4.180 0.187 0.728 5 054111 1877 1995 119 1.709 0.755 2.282 10.302 0.195 0.732 6 054113 1877 1995 119 2.115 0.728 1.682 7.915 0.221 0.546 7 054115 1878 1995 118 1.622 0.847 2.500 9.761 0.196 0.796 8 054117 1877 1995 119 1.609 0.838 2.278 9.058 0.210 0.778 9 054131 1877 1995 119 1.941 0.975 0.355 2.268 0.256 0.828 10 054133 1876 1995 120 2.196 1.161 1.026 3.697 0.244 0.824 11 054135 1876 1995 120 1.975 0.770 0.800 3.597 0.232 0.702 12 054137 1876 1995 120 1.863 0.963 0.971 3.310 0.226 0.873 13 054141 1879 1995 117 1.848 0.785 0.930 3.636 0.200 0.792 14 054143 1875 1995 121 1.971 0.956 0.810 3.025 0.224 0.821 15 054145 1873 1980 108 1.731 0.796 1.100 4.136 0.206 0.786 16 054147 1873 1995 123 1.692 0.922 1.118 3.222 0.205 0.832 17 054181 1870 1995 126 2.353 0.848 1.186 4.532 0.213 0.725 18 054183 1868 1995 128 2.599 0.964 0.390 2.802 0.257 0.632 19 054185 1867 1995 129 2.317 1.114 0.508 2.845 0.262 0.770 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 2.345 0.913 0.482 3.230 0.212 0.773 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1867 TO 1995 129 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 2.018 0.870 1.176 4.775 0.217 0.760 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.276 0.125 0.625 2.443 0.023 0.074 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 1.973 0.847 1.063 3.860 0.211 0.776 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.445 0.188 0.723 1.788 0.030 0.078 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.609 0.690 0.355 2.268 0.187 0.546 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 1.789 0.771 0.805 3.226 0.199 0.730 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 2.235 0.959 1.528 5.014 0.229 0.809 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 2.599 1.161 2.500 10.302 0.262 0.873 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.558 0.187 0.014 -0.581 3.023 0.022 0.931 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.022 SERIES 054105 AND 054183 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.931 SERIES 054115 AND 054117 118 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1877. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.961 0.486 0.334 0.278 0.295 0.222 0.423 0.529 0.406 0.457 SDEV 0.000 0.308 0.319 0.336 0.291 0.376 0.252 0.188 0.238 0.252 SERR 0.000 0.022 0.023 0.024 0.021 0.027 0.018 0.014 0.017 0.018 EPS 0.997 0.950 0.909 0.885 0.893 0.851 0.936 0.957 0.932 0.944 NSS 12.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 171. RBAR 0.386 SDEV 0.287 SERR 0.022 EPS 0.925 NSS 19.5 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 2.017 0.746 1.127 3.947 0.161 0.818 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.300 0.093 0.381 56 73 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.75 1.00 1.12 1.87 47.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.66 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 119. 4. 108. 118. 122. 129. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.812 0.775 0.678 0.614 0.605 0.589 0.587 0.574 0.596 0.556 PACF 0.812 0.340 -0.043 -0.020 0.191 0.120 0.052 0.019 0.167 -0.056 95% C.L. 0.176 0.268 0.330 0.371 0.401 0.429 0.453 0.476 0.497 0.519 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.717 0.537 0.347 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 054101 1 2.47527933 0.05670483 0.00000000 1.72282434 2 054103 1 2.46389604 0.06543981 0.00000000 1.85063076 3 054105 1 1.92801762 0.05076589 0.00000000 1.96102226 4 054107 1 1.54208851 0.04402279 0.00000000 1.67047536 5 054111 1 2.26535344 0.05260005 0.00000000 1.35685253 6 054113 1 2.00447154 0.06667072 0.00000000 1.87031221 7 054115 1 3.59929538 0.07423613 0.00000000 1.22577059 8 054117 1 2.73864412 0.04577162 0.00000000 1.12016261 9 054131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02414449 3.38967800 10 054133 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02270422 3.56943846 11 054135 1 2.07315493 0.01781294 0.00000000 1.12673044 12 054137 1 3.21752048 0.01886801 0.00000000 0.60188228 13 054141 1 2.29842186 0.02228023 0.00000000 1.04074919 14 054143 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02279529 3.36158681 15 054145 1 2.82583666 0.01391743 0.00000000 0.27899393 16 054147 1 2.87634516 0.02061088 0.00000000 0.65824628 17 054181 1 2.09313226 0.03113609 0.00000000 1.83862543 18 054183 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01101578 3.30926800 19 054185 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01976744 3.60178304 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 054187 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01589714 3.37827516 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 0.999 0.245 0.409 3.222 0.199 0.373 2 054103 1878 1995 118 0.999 0.297 1.288 7.615 0.188 0.592 3 054105 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.250 0.111 2.797 0.196 0.538 4 054107 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.293 0.306 2.634 0.185 0.646 5 054111 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.285 0.621 3.578 0.192 0.585 6 054113 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.264 0.491 3.418 0.219 0.380 7 054115 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.237 0.516 3.488 0.193 0.464 8 054117 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.274 0.399 3.202 0.207 0.509 9 054131 1877 1995 119 1.014 0.331 1.253 6.116 0.255 0.428 10 054133 1876 1995 120 1.007 0.372 0.772 3.678 0.243 0.558 11 054135 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.295 0.455 3.188 0.230 0.425 12 054137 1876 1995 120 1.002 0.303 0.599 3.618 0.224 0.525 13 054141 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.309 1.415 6.272 0.199 0.661 14 054143 1875 1995 121 1.013 0.255 0.210 2.653 0.222 0.431 15 054145 1873 1980 108 1.000 0.260 0.063 2.979 0.204 0.522 16 054147 1873 1995 123 1.003 0.320 0.451 2.687 0.204 0.676 17 054181 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.271 0.511 3.316 0.211 0.459 18 054183 1868 1995 128 0.998 0.345 0.555 3.059 0.255 0.520 19 054185 1867 1995 129 0.989 0.354 0.637 3.559 0.261 0.567 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 0.999 0.299 0.395 3.616 0.211 0.570 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.001 0.293 0.573 3.735 0.215 0.521 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.005 0.038 0.365 1.334 0.023 0.089 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.294 0.501 3.367 0.209 0.524 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.001 0.053 0.232 0.598 0.030 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.989 0.237 0.063 2.634 0.185 0.373 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 0.999 0.262 0.397 3.019 0.197 0.445 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.001 0.315 0.629 3.617 0.227 0.577 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 1.014 0.372 1.415 7.615 0.261 0.676 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 054101 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 054103 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 054105 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 054107 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 054111 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 054113 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 054115 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 054117 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 054131 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 054133 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 054135 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 054137 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 054141 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 054143 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 054145 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 054147 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 054181 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 054183 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 054185 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 054187 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 0.998 0.222 0.153 3.152 0.199 0.282 2 054103 1878 1995 118 0.997 0.237 0.186 3.530 0.188 0.451 3 054105 1878 1995 118 0.996 0.220 -0.136 3.186 0.196 0.405 4 054107 1878 1995 118 0.996 0.272 0.170 2.565 0.184 0.600 5 054111 1877 1995 119 0.996 0.257 0.569 3.925 0.191 0.493 6 054113 1877 1995 119 0.999 0.243 0.432 3.775 0.218 0.275 7 054115 1878 1995 118 0.999 0.222 0.288 3.497 0.193 0.404 8 054117 1877 1995 119 0.998 0.264 0.336 3.309 0.207 0.479 9 054131 1877 1995 119 0.997 0.291 0.748 4.818 0.255 0.308 10 054133 1876 1995 120 0.987 0.308 0.825 4.523 0.243 0.385 11 054135 1876 1995 120 0.997 0.270 0.223 2.866 0.230 0.346 12 054137 1876 1995 120 0.997 0.284 0.369 3.249 0.224 0.480 13 054141 1879 1995 117 0.994 0.268 1.030 5.381 0.198 0.570 14 054143 1875 1995 121 0.998 0.230 0.078 2.726 0.221 0.320 15 054145 1873 1980 108 0.998 0.246 -0.038 3.033 0.204 0.467 16 054147 1873 1995 123 0.994 0.279 0.333 2.881 0.203 0.595 17 054181 1870 1995 126 0.998 0.259 0.591 3.771 0.211 0.410 18 054183 1868 1995 128 0.995 0.314 0.689 4.099 0.255 0.414 19 054185 1867 1995 129 0.998 0.331 0.420 2.953 0.261 0.511 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 0.998 0.294 0.494 3.921 0.211 0.556 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 0.997 0.266 0.388 3.558 0.215 0.437 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.003 0.032 0.295 0.733 0.023 0.100 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 0.997 0.266 0.353 3.403 0.209 0.433 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.002 0.048 0.402 0.930 0.030 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.987 0.220 -0.136 2.565 0.184 0.275 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 0.996 0.240 0.178 2.993 0.197 0.366 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 0.998 0.288 0.580 3.923 0.227 0.502 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 0.999 0.331 1.030 5.381 0.261 0.600 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.311 0.185 0.013 0.320 3.139 -0.204 0.761 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.204 SERIES 054107 AND 054187 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.761 SERIES 054111 AND 054117 119 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1877. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.961 0.376 0.327 0.203 0.265 0.238 0.408 0.559 0.417 0.457 SDEV 0.000 0.286 0.245 0.288 0.245 0.316 0.262 0.174 0.238 0.245 SERR 0.000 0.021 0.018 0.021 0.018 0.023 0.019 0.013 0.017 0.018 EPS 0.997 0.923 0.907 0.836 0.878 0.862 0.932 0.962 0.935 0.944 NSS 12.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 171. RBAR 0.379 SDEV 0.277 SERR 0.021 EPS 0.923 NSS 19.5 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 0.981 0.173 -0.249 3.560 0.162 0.325 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.449 0.212 -0.001 38 91 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.51 1.01 1.09 1.60 3.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.69 0.87 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.322 0.190 -0.027 -0.153 -0.163 -0.130 -0.168 -0.064 0.004 -0.022 PACF 0.322 0.097 -0.128 -0.148 -0.060 -0.024 -0.124 0.001 0.034 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.176 0.194 0.199 0.199 0.203 0.207 0.209 0.214 0.214 0.214 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.123 0.333 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.273 0.176 0.004 -0.147 -0.189 -0.128 -0.224 -0.067 -0.061 -0.070 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.273 2 0.243 0.110 3 0.251 0.128 -0.075 4 0.239 0.150 -0.034 -0.165 5 0.219 0.146 -0.016 -0.138 -0.117 6 0.218 0.144 -0.016 -0.136 -0.115 -0.010 7 0.216 0.125 -0.039 -0.139 -0.090 0.027 -0.169 8 0.219 0.125 -0.038 -0.137 -0.090 0.025 -0.172 0.014 9 0.219 0.117 -0.037 -0.141 -0.095 0.024 -0.167 0.023 -0.042 10 0.215 0.120 -0.053 -0.138 -0.105 0.010 -0.170 0.034 -0.021 -0.097 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 907.58 899.60 900.03 901.30 899.72 899.95 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 901.93 900.19 902.17 903.94 904.73 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.273 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 7.44 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 108.04 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.273 0.074 0.020 0.006 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 054101 1 0.095 0.295 2 054103 1 0.218 0.466 3 054105 1 0.176 0.419 4 054107 1 0.371 0.608 5 054111 1 0.265 0.510 6 054113 1 0.080 0.283 7 054115 1 0.167 0.408 8 054117 1 0.279 0.496 9 054131 1 0.097 0.311 10 054133 1 0.196 0.391 11 054135 1 0.146 0.357 12 054137 1 0.245 0.491 13 054141 1 0.355 0.572 14 054143 1 0.141 0.322 15 054145 1 0.222 0.472 16 054147 1 0.368 0.599 17 054181 1 0.201 0.410 18 054183 1 0.260 0.421 19 054185 1 0.288 0.519 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 054187 1 0.356 0.569 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.226 0.446 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.092 0.101 MEDIAN 1 0.220 0.444 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.127 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.080 0.283 LOWER HINGE 1 0.156 0.374 UPPER HINGE 1 0.284 0.514 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.371 0.608 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.212 0.117 3.298 0.219 0.018 2 054103 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.208 0.623 3.940 0.229 -0.027 3 054105 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.199 0.121 3.461 0.219 -0.006 4 054107 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.215 0.769 3.942 0.215 0.011 5 054111 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.219 0.945 5.007 0.234 -0.048 6 054113 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.232 0.455 3.964 0.245 -0.008 7 054115 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.202 0.373 3.221 0.222 0.002 8 054117 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.228 0.714 3.978 0.259 -0.110 9 054131 1877 1995 119 1.001 0.272 0.246 4.838 0.287 0.005 10 054133 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.283 0.661 5.383 0.306 -0.091 11 054135 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.252 0.064 3.592 0.277 -0.059 12 054137 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.247 0.069 4.226 0.275 -0.042 13 054141 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.219 0.450 4.044 0.263 -0.117 14 054143 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.217 0.088 2.940 0.264 -0.065 15 054145 1873 1980 108 1.000 0.217 -0.272 3.383 0.250 -0.004 16 054147 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.223 -0.068 3.560 0.262 -0.076 17 054181 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.236 0.723 4.462 0.251 -0.077 18 054183 1868 1995 128 1.000 0.284 0.612 4.530 0.311 -0.124 19 054185 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.282 0.569 3.276 0.321 -0.089 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.240 0.903 5.034 0.273 -0.125 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.234 0.408 4.004 0.259 -0.052 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.027 0.345 0.690 0.031 0.048 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.225 0.452 3.953 0.260 -0.053 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.034 0.585 1.074 0.044 0.085 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.199 -0.272 2.940 0.215 -0.125 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 1.000 0.216 0.102 3.422 0.231 -0.090 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.249 0.687 4.496 0.276 -0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 1.001 0.284 0.945 5.383 0.321 0.018 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.381 0.151 0.011 0.646 3.133 0.020 0.805 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.020 SERIES 054107 AND 054183 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.805 SERIES 054111 AND 054117 119 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1877. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.936 0.508 0.469 0.272 0.291 0.272 0.365 0.524 0.481 0.467 SDEV 0.000 0.197 0.181 0.240 0.250 0.263 0.248 0.164 0.196 0.200 SERR 0.000 0.014 0.013 0.017 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.012 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.994 0.954 0.946 0.882 0.891 0.882 0.920 0.957 0.949 0.946 NSS 12.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 171. RBAR 0.375 SDEV 0.234 SERR 0.018 EPS 0.921 NSS 19.5 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 0.993 0.154 0.172 3.619 0.182 -0.150 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.386 0.153 0.020 43 86 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.51 1.02 1.10 1.60 7.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.67 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.149 0.103 -0.060 -0.089 -0.087 -0.021 -0.141 -0.026 0.032 -0.061 PACF -0.149 0.082 -0.035 -0.113 -0.111 -0.034 -0.150 -0.095 0.013 -0.086 95% C.L. 0.176 0.180 0.182 0.182 0.184 0.185 0.185 0.188 0.188 0.189 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 -0.155 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.014 0.080 -0.061 -0.117 -0.110 -0.058 -0.155 -0.043 0.018 -0.046 PACF 0.014 0.080 -0.064 -0.123 -0.099 -0.042 -0.157 -0.068 0.008 -0.088 95% C.L. 0.176 0.176 0.177 0.178 0.180 0.182 0.183 0.187 0.187 0.187 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.007 0.015 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 0.993 0.160 -0.003 3.582 0.150 0.302 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.299 0.132 -0.059 -0.161 -0.170 -0.139 -0.188 -0.087 -0.011 -0.015 PACF 0.299 0.046 -0.122 -0.132 -0.079 -0.054 -0.152 -0.025 0.008 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.176 0.191 0.194 0.195 0.199 0.203 0.206 0.211 0.212 0.212 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.097 0.307 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES