RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM055N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM055N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 054 1 Sirnitz NE (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 054 2 Germany Norway spruce 940 4747-745 1867 1995 - 054 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 054101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1989 1993 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 054105 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 054107 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1968 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 054113 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1982 1986 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 054133 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 054135 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1936 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 054147 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1904 1908 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 054187 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1913 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 0.243 0.025 0.180 5.805 0.068 0.479 2 054103 1878 1995 118 0.269 0.027 1.176 12.048 0.074 0.297 3 054105 1878 1995 118 0.243 0.023 1.552 8.433 0.068 0.429 4 054107 1878 1995 118 0.238 0.027 1.714 9.913 0.082 0.403 5 054111 1877 1995 119 0.243 0.027 0.884 5.618 0.081 0.458 6 054113 1877 1995 119 0.228 0.024 0.261 3.458 0.096 0.307 7 054115 1878 1995 118 0.269 0.023 -0.099 3.014 0.070 0.487 8 054117 1877 1995 119 0.253 0.030 0.240 4.297 0.081 0.505 9 054131 1877 1995 119 0.241 0.032 1.840 10.145 0.087 0.432 10 054133 1876 1995 120 0.242 0.027 0.690 3.644 0.080 0.564 11 054135 1876 1995 120 0.238 0.029 2.040 9.730 0.069 0.634 12 054137 1876 1995 120 0.213 0.024 2.592 13.650 0.079 0.483 13 054141 1879 1995 117 0.218 0.020 0.959 7.912 0.057 0.459 14 054143 1875 1995 121 0.220 0.019 -0.012 2.703 0.073 0.419 15 054145 1873 1980 108 0.238 0.026 0.287 2.814 0.067 0.662 16 054147 1873 1995 123 0.229 0.021 0.477 3.799 0.058 0.605 17 054181 1870 1995 126 0.195 0.023 -0.163 3.225 0.074 0.688 18 054183 1868 1995 128 0.243 0.031 -0.399 2.722 0.065 0.770 19 054185 1867 1995 129 0.250 0.037 1.206 10.346 0.069 0.643 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 0.238 0.029 3.302 24.830 0.062 0.485 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1867 TO 1995 129 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 0.238 0.026 0.936 7.405 0.073 0.510 STANDARD DEVIATION 5 0.017 0.004 0.991 5.397 0.010 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 118 0.240 0.026 0.787 5.711 0.072 0.484 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.015 0.006 1.423 6.687 0.013 0.189 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.195 0.019 -0.399 2.703 0.057 0.297 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 0.228 0.023 0.210 3.341 0.067 0.430 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 120 0.243 0.029 1.633 10.029 0.080 0.619 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 0.269 0.037 3.302 24.830 0.096 0.770 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.273 0.252 0.018 -0.058 2.938 -0.469 0.809 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.469 SERIES 054135 AND 054185 120 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.809 SERIES 054183 AND 054185 128 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1877. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.978 0.368 0.339 0.470 0.630 0.410 0.408 0.315 0.201 0.326 SDEV 0.000 0.290 0.331 0.238 0.145 0.266 0.244 0.220 0.251 0.249 SERR 0.000 0.021 0.024 0.017 0.011 0.019 0.018 0.016 0.018 0.018 EPS 0.998 0.921 0.911 0.947 0.971 0.933 0.932 0.902 0.834 0.906 NSS 12.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 171. RBAR 0.321 SDEV 0.245 SERR 0.019 EPS 0.902 NSS 19.5 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 0.238 0.025 5.462 47.252 0.054 0.345 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.057 -0.029 0.035 19 110 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.22 1.02 1.04 1.26 2.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.55 0.85 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 119. 4. 108. 118. 122. 129. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.343 0.158 0.014 0.006 -0.104 -0.035 -0.010 -0.075 0.030 0.147 PACF 0.343 0.046 -0.060 0.013 -0.116 0.037 0.017 -0.098 0.100 0.134 95% C.L. 0.176 0.196 0.200 0.200 0.200 0.201 0.201 0.202 0.202 0.202 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.237 0.487 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 054101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023125 0.25495404 2 054103 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001304 0.26950458 3 054105 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017851 0.25314954 4 054107 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005350 0.24095501 5 054111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010041 0.23708446 6 054113 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000404 0.22804569 7 054115 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020652 0.25677967 8 054117 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037039 0.23096995 9 054131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033193 0.22109243 10 054133 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014988 0.23224565 11 054135 1 0.18718900 0.23856373 0.00000000 0.23096761 12 054137 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011997 0.22067507 13 054141 1 0.01656650 0.01747462 0.00000000 0.21121286 14 054143 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00032672 0.20040083 15 054145 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046334 0.21261856 16 054147 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014052 0.23703240 17 054181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039850 0.16921905 18 054183 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00058400 0.20491019 19 054185 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050335 0.21728198 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 054187 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025566 0.22093491 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.098 -0.102 5.073 0.068 0.455 2 054103 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.102 1.136 11.793 0.074 0.296 3 054105 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.090 1.026 6.806 0.067 0.417 4 054107 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.109 1.550 9.375 0.079 0.401 5 054111 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.111 1.214 6.563 0.080 0.437 6 054113 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.105 0.272 3.552 0.092 0.306 7 054115 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.084 0.231 2.986 0.070 0.431 8 054117 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.108 1.499 10.113 0.080 0.348 9 054131 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.126 3.017 18.390 0.086 0.322 10 054133 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.110 0.993 4.579 0.079 0.525 11 054135 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.080 0.233 2.872 0.068 0.405 12 054137 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.108 2.184 10.989 0.078 0.467 13 054141 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.090 0.794 6.481 0.057 0.443 14 054143 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.070 0.579 4.335 0.073 0.096 15 054145 1873 1980 108 1.000 0.094 1.110 5.817 0.067 0.454 16 054147 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.086 0.305 3.356 0.058 0.580 17 054181 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.092 0.293 3.049 0.074 0.480 18 054183 1868 1995 128 1.000 0.095 0.865 6.453 0.065 0.509 19 054185 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.138 4.508 35.874 0.069 0.446 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.119 5.556 47.149 0.061 0.366 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.101 1.363 10.280 0.072 0.409 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.016 1.463 11.487 0.009 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.100 1.010 6.467 0.071 0.434 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.020 1.225 6.607 0.012 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.070 -0.102 2.872 0.057 0.096 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 1.000 0.090 0.299 3.944 0.067 0.357 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.110 1.524 10.551 0.079 0.461 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.138 5.556 47.149 0.092 0.580 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 054101 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 054103 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 054105 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 054107 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 054111 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 054113 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 054115 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 054117 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 054131 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 054133 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 054135 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 054137 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 054141 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 054143 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 054145 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 054147 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 054181 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 054183 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 054185 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 054187 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.086 0.342 5.485 0.068 0.274 2 054103 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.095 1.141 11.295 0.074 0.219 3 054105 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.086 1.244 7.926 0.067 0.365 4 054107 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.103 1.129 7.154 0.079 0.376 5 054111 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.103 1.960 12.592 0.080 0.307 6 054113 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.095 0.954 7.422 0.092 0.102 7 054115 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.075 0.350 2.727 0.070 0.268 8 054117 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.107 1.888 13.341 0.080 0.302 9 054131 1877 1995 119 0.999 0.100 2.475 12.962 0.086 0.102 10 054133 1876 1995 120 0.999 0.096 0.750 3.609 0.079 0.410 11 054135 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.070 0.089 2.757 0.068 0.229 12 054137 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.096 1.240 6.704 0.078 0.402 13 054141 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.086 0.876 7.263 0.057 0.386 14 054143 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.069 0.696 4.522 0.073 0.064 15 054145 1873 1980 108 1.000 0.083 1.036 5.959 0.067 0.340 16 054147 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.077 0.338 3.348 0.059 0.476 17 054181 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.085 0.237 3.125 0.074 0.380 18 054183 1868 1995 128 1.000 0.092 1.130 7.904 0.065 0.474 19 054185 1867 1995 129 0.999 0.124 4.216 33.822 0.068 0.407 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 0.999 0.105 4.417 36.315 0.061 0.341 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.092 1.325 9.812 0.072 0.311 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.014 1.188 9.273 0.009 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.094 1.082 7.208 0.071 0.341 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.017 1.043 7.878 0.012 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.999 0.069 0.089 2.727 0.057 0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 1.000 0.084 0.523 4.065 0.067 0.249 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.101 1.566 11.944 0.079 0.394 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.124 4.417 36.315 0.092 0.476 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.326 0.176 0.013 0.537 3.040 -0.045 0.805 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.045 SERIES 054133 AND 054147 120 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.805 SERIES 054185 AND 054187 129 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1877. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.974 0.415 0.346 0.485 0.599 0.462 0.409 0.305 0.207 0.320 SDEV 0.000 0.245 0.307 0.226 0.152 0.240 0.226 0.229 0.244 0.253 SERR 0.000 0.018 0.022 0.016 0.011 0.017 0.016 0.017 0.018 0.018 EPS 0.998 0.934 0.914 0.950 0.968 0.945 0.933 0.898 0.839 0.904 NSS 12.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 171. RBAR 0.360 SDEV 0.216 SERR 0.017 EPS 0.917 NSS 19.5 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 1.006 0.102 4.598 35.804 0.063 0.337 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.275 0.106 -0.038 39 90 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.44 1.00 1.05 1.49 9.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.60 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.335 0.173 0.040 0.003 -0.121 -0.093 0.012 -0.093 -0.018 0.084 PACF 0.335 0.069 -0.041 -0.011 -0.131 -0.018 0.089 -0.126 0.039 0.107 95% C.L. 0.176 0.195 0.200 0.200 0.200 0.202 0.203 0.203 0.205 0.205 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.209 0.451 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.253 0.165 -0.011 -0.010 -0.093 -0.080 0.017 -0.100 -0.153 -0.171 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.253 2 0.225 0.108 3 0.234 0.126 -0.082 4 0.233 0.127 -0.080 -0.008 5 0.233 0.121 -0.069 0.011 -0.081 6 0.229 0.121 -0.072 0.016 -0.071 -0.043 7 0.233 0.126 -0.074 0.021 -0.080 -0.060 0.075 8 0.242 0.119 -0.083 0.024 -0.089 -0.044 0.103 -0.122 9 0.225 0.133 -0.089 0.012 -0.085 -0.056 0.120 -0.089 -0.137 10 0.213 0.125 -0.079 0.007 -0.093 -0.055 0.112 -0.077 -0.117 -0.090 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 627.66 621.16 621.65 622.79 624.78 625.94 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 627.71 628.98 629.04 628.59 629.54 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.253 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.38 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.81 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.253 0.064 0.016 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 054101 1 0.105 0.306 2 054103 1 0.091 0.270 3 054105 1 0.205 0.415 4 054107 1 0.207 0.418 5 054111 1 0.139 0.360 6 054113 1 0.014 0.115 7 054115 1 0.093 0.273 8 054117 1 0.127 0.356 9 054131 1 0.014 0.117 10 054133 1 0.178 0.420 11 054135 1 0.074 0.229 12 054137 1 0.237 0.435 13 054141 1 0.226 0.399 14 054143 1 0.010 0.065 15 054145 1 0.145 0.374 16 054147 1 0.255 0.504 17 054181 1 0.169 0.388 18 054183 1 0.311 0.531 19 054185 1 0.295 0.541 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 054187 1 0.218 0.464 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.156 0.349 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.090 0.136 MEDIAN 1 0.157 0.381 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.129 0.156 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.010 0.065 LOWER HINGE 1 0.092 0.271 UPPER HINGE 1 0.222 0.427 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.311 0.541 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.081 -0.126 6.409 0.080 -0.023 2 054103 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.090 0.848 11.701 0.085 -0.048 3 054105 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.077 0.944 6.955 0.084 -0.116 4 054107 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.092 0.933 6.559 0.100 -0.118 5 054111 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.094 1.612 10.776 0.100 -0.088 6 054113 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.094 0.937 7.417 0.099 -0.014 7 054115 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.072 0.333 2.929 0.080 -0.043 8 054117 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.098 1.783 11.427 0.098 -0.062 9 054131 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.099 2.508 13.279 0.092 -0.015 10 054133 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.087 0.706 3.613 0.095 -0.023 11 054135 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.068 -0.155 3.225 0.078 -0.034 12 054137 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.086 0.936 4.505 0.101 -0.131 13 054141 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.079 0.944 12.379 0.073 -0.105 14 054143 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.069 0.656 4.376 0.076 0.005 15 054145 1873 1980 108 1.000 0.076 0.697 4.912 0.084 -0.061 16 054147 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.066 0.172 2.906 0.074 0.003 17 054181 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.078 0.161 2.870 0.093 -0.062 18 054183 1868 1995 128 1.000 0.076 0.993 5.996 0.087 -0.161 19 054185 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.096 3.068 23.950 0.093 -0.184 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.087 3.591 29.007 0.079 -0.154 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.083 1.077 8.760 0.088 -0.072 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.010 0.998 6.994 0.009 0.057 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.083 0.934 6.484 0.086 -0.061 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.017 0.808 7.570 0.017 0.093 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.066 -0.155 2.870 0.073 -0.184 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 1.000 0.076 0.494 3.994 0.079 -0.117 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.093 1.302 11.564 0.097 -0.023 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.099 3.591 29.007 0.101 0.005 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.345 0.143 0.010 0.608 3.693 -0.018 0.767 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.018 SERIES 054133 AND 054147 120 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.767 SERIES 054111 AND 054117 119 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1877. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.949 0.457 0.350 0.493 0.545 0.491 0.455 0.235 0.222 0.345 SDEV 0.000 0.218 0.253 0.187 0.162 0.194 0.194 0.243 0.238 0.236 SERR 0.000 0.016 0.018 0.014 0.012 0.014 0.014 0.018 0.017 0.017 EPS 0.996 0.944 0.915 0.951 0.960 0.951 0.943 0.860 0.851 0.913 NSS 12.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 171. RBAR 0.353 SDEV 0.192 SERR 0.015 EPS 0.914 NSS 19.5 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.080 3.511 27.547 0.072 -0.179 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.097 0.037 0.022 28 101 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 1.08 1.00 1.08 2.16 28.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.65 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.178 0.036 -0.039 0.073 -0.094 -0.063 0.105 -0.121 -0.042 0.050 PACF -0.178 0.005 -0.033 0.062 -0.072 -0.099 0.088 -0.100 -0.081 0.046 95% C.L. 0.176 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.183 0.184 0.185 0.187 0.189 0.190 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.053 -0.229 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.055 -0.010 -0.017 0.049 -0.101 -0.066 0.075 -0.117 -0.064 0.055 PACF 0.055 -0.013 -0.015 0.051 -0.107 -0.054 0.083 -0.138 -0.040 0.064 95% C.L. 0.176 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.179 0.180 0.181 0.183 0.184 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 0.070 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.083 3.375 24.773 0.056 0.296 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.294 0.061 0.004 0.019 -0.098 -0.076 0.017 -0.113 -0.070 0.041 PACF 0.294 -0.028 -0.007 0.023 -0.120 -0.016 0.055 -0.152 0.012 0.070 95% C.L. 0.176 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.193 0.194 0.194 0.196 0.197 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.144 0.373 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES