RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM055T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM055T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 054 1 Sirnitz NE (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_LATE PCAB - 054 2 Germany Norway spruce 940 4747-745 1867 1995 - 054 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 6.886 1.029 0.019 2.749 0.144 0.205 2 054103 1878 1995 118 7.212 1.209 -1.633 12.264 0.162 0.109 3 054105 1878 1995 118 6.764 0.970 0.104 2.439 0.139 0.180 4 054107 1878 1995 118 7.030 1.028 0.081 2.435 0.145 0.240 5 054111 1877 1995 119 7.140 0.991 -0.194 2.789 0.115 0.410 6 054113 1877 1995 119 6.600 0.929 -0.003 3.569 0.129 0.293 7 054115 1878 1995 118 7.382 1.072 -0.678 3.339 0.121 0.466 8 054117 1877 1995 119 7.238 1.084 -0.721 2.804 0.117 0.509 9 054131 1877 1995 119 7.547 0.788 -0.007 2.573 0.093 0.364 10 054133 1876 1995 120 7.463 0.804 -0.129 2.323 0.097 0.369 11 054135 1876 1995 120 7.477 0.726 -0.291 3.464 0.096 0.121 12 054137 1876 1995 120 7.053 0.739 0.365 3.010 0.086 0.467 13 054141 1879 1995 117 6.900 0.872 -0.553 4.960 0.117 0.181 14 054143 1875 1995 121 6.805 0.857 -0.110 2.816 0.102 0.458 15 054145 1873 1980 108 7.072 1.045 -0.138 2.413 0.109 0.557 16 054147 1873 1995 123 7.060 0.928 -0.355 2.932 0.119 0.315 17 054181 1870 1995 126 5.267 0.972 0.585 3.150 0.148 0.488 18 054183 1868 1995 128 5.706 1.182 0.866 3.321 0.152 0.572 19 054185 1867 1995 129 5.892 1.154 0.494 2.431 0.148 0.576 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 5.887 1.026 0.514 2.681 0.144 0.457 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1867 TO 1995 129 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 6.819 0.970 -0.089 3.423 0.124 0.367 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.640 0.140 0.554 2.165 0.023 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 7.041 0.981 -0.058 2.810 0.120 0.390 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.542 0.194 0.557 0.824 0.039 0.255 MINIMUM VALUE 108 5.267 0.726 -1.633 2.323 0.086 0.109 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 6.682 0.864 -0.323 2.506 0.106 0.223 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 7.225 1.059 0.235 3.330 0.145 0.477 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 7.547 1.209 0.866 12.264 0.162 0.576 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.655 0.115 0.008 -0.236 3.535 0.305 0.920 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.305 SERIES 054103 AND 054131 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.920 SERIES 054115 AND 054117 118 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1877. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.863 0.558 0.545 0.559 0.747 0.735 0.690 0.651 0.649 0.614 SDEV 0.000 0.197 0.175 0.189 0.099 0.113 0.238 0.269 0.148 0.164 SERR 0.000 0.014 0.013 0.014 0.007 0.008 0.017 0.020 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.987 0.962 0.960 0.962 0.983 0.982 0.978 0.974 0.974 0.970 NSS 12.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 171. RBAR 0.679 SDEV 0.142 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.976 NSS 19.5 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 6.801 0.884 -0.072 2.512 0.104 0.467 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.020 -0.006 0.848 33 96 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.27 1.00 1.04 1.31 8.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.71 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 119. 4. 108. 118. 122. 129. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.464 0.475 0.412 0.349 0.350 0.315 0.321 0.162 0.222 0.216 PACF 0.464 0.331 0.160 0.051 0.088 0.052 0.074 -0.162 0.035 0.078 95% C.L. 0.176 0.211 0.242 0.262 0.276 0.290 0.300 0.311 0.313 0.318 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.324 0.269 0.278 0.153 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 054101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00614073 6.52325249 2 054103 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00669851 6.81296396 3 054105 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00421413 6.51341152 4 054107 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00871473 6.51147318 5 054111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01155555 6.44666719 6 054113 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00394203 6.36373043 7 054115 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00904525 6.84401131 8 054117 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01251196 6.48684502 9 054131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00908154 7.00174618 10 054133 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00803254 6.97694826 11 054135 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00466678 7.19432640 12 054137 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01203688 6.32443571 13 054141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00397279 6.66543484 14 054143 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01507215 5.88572311 15 054145 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02092005 5.93180180 16 054147 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01070281 6.39658785 17 054181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01542086 4.28783894 18 054183 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01846231 4.51472807 19 054185 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01913970 4.64839983 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 054187 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01468174 4.93289614 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.146 -0.047 2.991 0.143 0.166 2 054103 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.163 -1.833 13.437 0.161 0.073 3 054105 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.141 0.067 2.611 0.137 0.157 4 054107 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.139 -0.055 2.661 0.144 0.159 5 054111 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.127 -0.122 3.171 0.114 0.307 6 054113 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.140 0.039 3.458 0.128 0.283 7 054115 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.141 -0.449 2.918 0.120 0.437 8 054117 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.139 -0.559 2.689 0.116 0.433 9 054131 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.095 -0.202 2.903 0.092 0.236 10 054133 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.100 -0.284 2.787 0.096 0.262 11 054135 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.094 -0.488 4.176 0.095 0.068 12 054137 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.085 0.083 3.901 0.086 0.193 13 054141 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.124 -0.731 5.527 0.116 0.154 14 054143 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.099 -0.382 3.746 0.101 0.092 15 054145 1873 1980 108 1.000 0.116 -0.128 2.771 0.108 0.262 16 054147 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.119 -0.422 3.853 0.118 0.150 17 054181 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.146 0.022 3.228 0.147 0.193 18 054183 1868 1995 128 1.000 0.163 0.291 2.772 0.151 0.315 19 054185 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.154 0.373 2.998 0.147 0.265 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.146 0.172 3.401 0.143 0.211 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.129 -0.233 3.800 0.123 0.221 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.024 0.476 2.373 0.022 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.139 -0.125 3.085 0.119 0.202 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.037 0.489 1.020 0.039 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.085 -1.833 2.611 0.086 0.068 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 1.000 0.108 -0.436 2.780 0.105 0.155 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.146 0.053 3.800 0.144 0.274 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.163 0.373 13.437 0.161 0.437 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 054101 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 054103 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 054105 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 054107 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 054111 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 054113 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 054115 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 054117 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 054131 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 054133 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 054135 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 054137 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 054141 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 054143 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 054145 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 054147 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 054181 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 054183 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 054185 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 054187 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.136 -0.202 2.927 0.143 0.063 2 054103 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.155 -2.267 15.945 0.161 0.018 3 054105 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.134 -0.112 2.499 0.137 0.075 4 054107 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.135 -0.199 2.630 0.144 0.114 5 054111 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.117 -0.231 2.986 0.114 0.202 6 054113 1877 1995 119 0.999 0.125 0.099 3.105 0.128 0.128 7 054115 1878 1995 118 0.999 0.121 -0.379 2.759 0.120 0.270 8 054117 1877 1995 119 0.999 0.128 -0.656 2.845 0.115 0.345 9 054131 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.094 -0.236 2.970 0.092 0.208 10 054133 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.093 -0.496 2.910 0.096 0.151 11 054135 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.090 -0.617 4.086 0.095 -0.012 12 054137 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.084 -0.031 3.562 0.086 0.169 13 054141 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.120 -0.873 5.499 0.116 0.102 14 054143 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.098 -0.326 3.638 0.101 0.074 15 054145 1873 1980 108 1.000 0.109 -0.180 2.974 0.108 0.168 16 054147 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.109 -0.609 3.723 0.118 -0.012 17 054181 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.144 0.013 3.392 0.147 0.169 18 054183 1868 1995 128 1.000 0.159 0.422 3.099 0.151 0.271 19 054185 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.146 0.271 2.753 0.147 0.191 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.137 -0.027 3.148 0.143 0.113 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.122 -0.332 3.873 0.123 0.140 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.022 0.556 2.918 0.022 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.123 -0.217 3.043 0.119 0.140 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.034 0.523 0.722 0.039 0.122 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.999 0.084 -2.267 2.499 0.086 -0.012 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 1.000 0.103 -0.553 2.878 0.105 0.074 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.137 -0.029 3.600 0.144 0.197 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.159 0.422 15.945 0.161 0.345 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.629 0.118 0.009 -0.246 3.480 0.269 0.916 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.269 SERIES 054103 AND 054137 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.916 SERIES 054115 AND 054117 118 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1877. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.836 0.492 0.541 0.590 0.733 0.754 0.672 0.654 0.669 0.613 SDEV 0.000 0.206 0.184 0.178 0.105 0.104 0.240 0.266 0.141 0.165 SERR 0.000 0.015 0.013 0.013 0.008 0.008 0.017 0.019 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.984 0.951 0.959 0.966 0.982 0.984 0.976 0.974 0.976 0.969 NSS 12.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 171. RBAR 0.692 SDEV 0.136 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.978 NSS 19.5 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 1.005 0.103 -0.125 3.549 0.103 0.146 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.025 -0.005 0.076 25 104 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.36 1.00 1.06 1.42 11.25 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.77 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.145 0.138 0.054 0.008 0.020 -0.013 0.014 -0.183 -0.081 -0.086 PACF 0.145 0.120 0.020 -0.019 0.012 -0.017 0.015 -0.191 -0.039 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.176 0.180 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.189 0.190 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.042 0.135 0.133 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.102 0.131 0.030 -0.020 0.043 -0.002 0.010 -0.199 -0.080 -0.087 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.102 2 0.090 0.122 3 0.089 0.121 0.006 4 0.089 0.126 0.009 -0.040 5 0.091 0.126 0.004 -0.044 0.045 6 0.091 0.126 0.004 -0.044 0.045 -0.002 7 0.091 0.126 0.004 -0.044 0.045 -0.002 0.000 8 0.091 0.125 0.013 -0.053 0.046 0.024 0.019 -0.207 9 0.082 0.126 0.014 -0.051 0.044 0.024 0.025 -0.203 -0.045 10 0.081 0.120 0.015 -0.051 0.045 0.023 0.025 -0.200 -0.042 -0.028 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 790.07 790.72 790.80 792.79 794.58 796.32 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 798.32 800.32 796.65 798.39 800.29 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 054101 0 0.005 2 054103 0 0.000 3 054105 0 0.006 4 054107 0 0.013 5 054111 0 0.045 6 054113 0 0.017 7 054115 0 0.076 8 054117 0 0.126 9 054131 0 0.045 10 054133 0 0.025 11 054135 0 0.000 12 054137 0 0.031 13 054141 0 0.012 14 054143 0 0.006 15 054145 0 0.028 16 054147 0 0.000 17 054181 0 0.031 18 054183 0 0.078 19 054185 0 0.039 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 054187 0 0.014 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.030 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.032 MEDIAN 0 0.021 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.036 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.006 UPPER HINGE 0 0.042 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.126 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.136 -0.202 2.927 0.143 0.063 2 054103 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.155 -2.267 15.945 0.161 0.018 3 054105 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.134 -0.112 2.499 0.137 0.075 4 054107 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.135 -0.199 2.630 0.144 0.114 5 054111 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.117 -0.231 2.986 0.114 0.202 6 054113 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.125 0.099 3.105 0.128 0.128 7 054115 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.121 -0.379 2.759 0.120 0.270 8 054117 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.128 -0.656 2.845 0.115 0.345 9 054131 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.094 -0.236 2.970 0.092 0.208 10 054133 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.093 -0.496 2.910 0.096 0.151 11 054135 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.090 -0.617 4.086 0.095 -0.012 12 054137 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.084 -0.031 3.562 0.086 0.169 13 054141 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.120 -0.873 5.499 0.116 0.102 14 054143 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.098 -0.326 3.638 0.101 0.074 15 054145 1873 1980 108 1.000 0.109 -0.180 2.974 0.108 0.168 16 054147 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.109 -0.609 3.723 0.118 -0.012 17 054181 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.144 0.013 3.392 0.147 0.169 18 054183 1868 1995 128 1.000 0.159 0.422 3.099 0.151 0.271 19 054185 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.146 0.271 2.753 0.147 0.191 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.137 -0.027 3.148 0.143 0.113 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.122 -0.332 3.873 0.123 0.140 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.022 0.556 2.918 0.022 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.123 -0.217 3.043 0.119 0.140 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.034 0.523 0.722 0.039 0.122 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.084 -2.267 2.499 0.086 -0.012 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 1.000 0.103 -0.553 2.878 0.105 0.074 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.137 -0.029 3.600 0.143 0.197 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.159 0.422 15.945 0.161 0.345 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.629 0.118 0.009 -0.246 3.480 0.269 0.916 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.269 SERIES 054103 AND 054137 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.916 SERIES 054115 AND 054117 118 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1877. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.836 0.492 0.541 0.590 0.733 0.754 0.672 0.654 0.669 0.613 SDEV 0.000 0.206 0.184 0.178 0.105 0.104 0.240 0.266 0.141 0.165 SERR 0.000 0.015 0.013 0.013 0.008 0.008 0.017 0.019 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.984 0.951 0.959 0.966 0.982 0.984 0.976 0.974 0.976 0.969 NSS 12.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 171. RBAR 0.692 SDEV 0.136 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.978 NSS 19.5 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 1.005 0.103 -0.125 3.549 0.103 0.146 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.024 -0.005 0.076 24 105 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.39 1.01 1.07 1.45 11.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.76 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.145 0.138 0.054 0.008 0.020 -0.013 0.013 -0.183 -0.081 -0.086 PACF 0.145 0.120 0.020 -0.019 0.012 -0.018 0.015 -0.191 -0.039 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.176 0.180 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.189 0.190 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.042 0.135 0.133 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 1.005 0.103 -0.125 3.549 0.103 0.146 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.145 0.138 0.054 0.008 0.020 -0.013 0.013 -0.183 -0.081 -0.086 PACF 0.145 0.120 0.020 -0.019 0.012 -0.018 0.015 -0.191 -0.039 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.176 0.180 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.189 0.190 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.042 0.135 0.133 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES