RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM055X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM055X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 054 1 Sirnitz NE (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCAB - 054 2 Germany Norway spruce 940 4747-745 1867 1995 - 054 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 0.820 0.115 -0.243 2.692 0.142 0.151 2 054103 1878 1995 118 0.870 0.110 0.145 2.540 0.121 0.224 3 054105 1878 1995 118 0.809 0.106 -0.104 2.620 0.136 0.073 4 054107 1878 1995 118 0.841 0.107 -0.323 2.677 0.131 0.127 5 054111 1877 1995 119 0.848 0.108 -0.606 3.031 0.113 0.320 6 054113 1877 1995 119 0.796 0.110 -0.282 2.999 0.134 0.261 7 054115 1878 1995 118 0.870 0.118 -0.763 3.095 0.116 0.405 8 054117 1877 1995 119 0.854 0.119 -0.844 2.881 0.114 0.404 9 054131 1877 1995 119 0.895 0.080 -0.216 2.982 0.081 0.300 10 054133 1876 1995 120 0.878 0.081 -0.360 2.624 0.093 0.192 11 054135 1876 1995 120 0.889 0.079 -0.586 4.270 0.085 0.138 12 054137 1876 1995 120 0.842 0.077 -0.083 3.484 0.077 0.376 13 054141 1879 1995 117 0.819 0.092 -1.150 6.984 0.104 0.119 14 054143 1875 1995 121 0.807 0.090 -0.363 2.834 0.101 0.345 15 054145 1873 1980 108 0.832 0.109 -0.335 2.471 0.101 0.488 16 054147 1873 1995 123 0.831 0.093 -0.650 3.562 0.108 0.189 17 054181 1870 1995 126 0.649 0.116 0.312 2.814 0.152 0.425 18 054183 1868 1995 128 0.697 0.137 0.481 2.727 0.165 0.479 19 054185 1867 1995 129 0.716 0.133 0.333 2.319 0.155 0.487 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 0.719 0.125 0.365 2.491 0.153 0.376 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1867 TO 1995 129 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 0.814 0.105 -0.264 3.105 0.119 0.294 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.068 0.018 0.437 1.018 0.026 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 0.832 0.108 -0.302 2.824 0.115 0.310 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.060 0.027 0.627 0.440 0.039 0.234 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.649 0.077 -1.150 2.319 0.077 0.073 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 0.802 0.091 -0.596 2.622 0.101 0.170 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 0.862 0.117 0.031 3.063 0.139 0.405 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 0.895 0.137 0.481 6.984 0.165 0.488 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.716 0.082 0.006 0.415 3.108 0.539 0.931 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.539 SERIES 054113 AND 054187 119 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.931 SERIES 054115 AND 054117 118 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1877. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.856 0.624 0.655 0.664 0.768 0.783 0.815 0.785 0.718 0.696 SDEV 0.000 0.175 0.128 0.144 0.092 0.098 0.089 0.111 0.112 0.130 SERR 0.000 0.013 0.009 0.010 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.008 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.986 0.971 0.974 0.975 0.985 0.986 0.989 0.986 0.981 0.979 NSS 12.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 171. RBAR 0.742 SDEV 0.107 SERR 0.008 EPS 0.983 NSS 19.5 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 0.813 0.098 -0.224 2.551 0.103 0.374 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.230 -0.067 0.137 37 92 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.56 1.00 1.09 1.65 3.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.63 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 119. 4. 108. 118. 122. 129. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.371 0.425 0.354 0.303 0.286 0.270 0.226 0.099 0.177 0.142 PACF 0.371 0.333 0.163 0.067 0.062 0.061 0.011 -0.141 0.047 0.050 95% C.L. 0.176 0.199 0.225 0.242 0.253 0.263 0.272 0.277 0.279 0.282 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.262 0.202 0.293 0.157 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 054101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040567 0.79563808 2 054103 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043657 0.84402436 3 054105 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031137 0.79062581 4 054107 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060927 0.80501956 5 054111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00115019 0.77880359 6 054113 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038520 0.77302235 7 054115 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00087514 0.81784439 8 054117 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00122689 0.77991599 9 054131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00070802 0.85247684 10 054133 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044684 0.85113305 11 054135 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047413 0.85998178 12 054137 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00102705 0.78011346 13 054141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016567 0.80877250 14 054143 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00139852 0.72196281 15 054145 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00195538 0.72565418 16 054147 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00095975 0.77155268 17 054181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00178742 0.53507048 18 054183 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00202982 0.56602979 19 054185 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00197607 0.58721417 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 054187 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00176811 0.60437500 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.138 -0.306 2.851 0.141 0.134 2 054103 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.125 0.059 2.593 0.120 0.202 3 054105 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.130 -0.168 2.749 0.135 0.062 4 054107 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.124 -0.444 2.870 0.130 0.083 5 054111 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.118 -0.607 3.498 0.112 0.222 6 054113 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.138 -0.229 2.967 0.133 0.256 7 054115 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.133 -0.594 2.837 0.115 0.378 8 054117 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.132 -0.692 2.968 0.113 0.338 9 054131 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.085 -0.263 3.326 0.081 0.221 10 054133 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.090 -0.486 2.916 0.092 0.148 11 054135 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.087 -0.741 5.114 0.084 0.090 12 054137 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.081 -0.363 4.266 0.077 0.189 13 054141 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.111 -1.218 7.276 0.103 0.113 14 054143 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.093 -0.602 3.855 0.100 0.048 15 054145 1873 1980 108 1.000 0.109 -0.245 2.573 0.100 0.250 16 054147 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.103 -0.783 4.945 0.107 0.043 17 054181 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.144 -0.252 3.254 0.151 0.133 18 054183 1868 1995 128 1.000 0.161 -0.070 2.603 0.164 0.221 19 054185 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.154 -0.003 2.522 0.154 0.230 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.144 -0.237 3.000 0.152 0.121 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.120 -0.412 3.449 0.118 0.174 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.024 0.309 1.173 0.026 0.093 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.124 -0.334 2.967 0.114 0.169 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.040 0.372 0.884 0.038 0.125 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.081 -1.218 2.522 0.077 0.043 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 1.000 0.098 -0.604 2.793 0.100 0.102 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.138 -0.233 3.677 0.138 0.226 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.161 0.059 7.276 0.164 0.378 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 054101 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 054103 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 054105 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 054107 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 054111 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 054113 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 054115 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 054117 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 054131 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 054133 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 054135 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 054137 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 054141 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 054143 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 054145 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 054147 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 054181 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 054183 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 054185 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 054187 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.132 -0.409 2.822 0.141 0.059 2 054103 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.114 -0.149 2.218 0.120 0.068 3 054105 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.125 -0.283 2.746 0.135 -0.001 4 054107 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.120 -0.613 2.957 0.130 0.026 5 054111 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.109 -0.758 3.769 0.111 0.113 6 054113 1877 1995 119 0.999 0.124 -0.209 2.808 0.133 0.111 7 054115 1878 1995 118 0.999 0.117 -0.666 3.054 0.114 0.230 8 054117 1877 1995 119 0.999 0.121 -0.825 3.321 0.113 0.244 9 054131 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.083 -0.310 3.505 0.081 0.184 10 054133 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.087 -0.637 3.061 0.092 0.083 11 054135 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.083 -0.841 4.731 0.084 0.032 12 054137 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.080 -0.406 3.946 0.077 0.165 13 054141 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.110 -1.231 6.957 0.103 0.086 14 054143 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.091 -0.517 3.665 0.100 0.018 15 054145 1873 1980 108 1.000 0.103 -0.335 2.748 0.100 0.167 16 054147 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.098 -0.837 4.638 0.107 -0.052 17 054181 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.143 -0.280 3.303 0.151 0.117 18 054183 1868 1995 128 1.000 0.157 0.021 2.747 0.164 0.177 19 054185 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.148 -0.042 2.503 0.153 0.160 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.139 -0.328 3.018 0.152 0.045 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.114 -0.483 3.426 0.118 0.102 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.023 0.315 1.057 0.026 0.079 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.116 -0.407 3.058 0.114 0.099 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.034 0.431 0.939 0.038 0.128 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.999 0.080 -1.231 2.218 0.077 -0.052 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 1.000 0.095 -0.712 2.778 0.100 0.038 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.129 -0.281 3.717 0.138 0.166 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.157 0.021 6.957 0.164 0.244 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.720 0.074 0.005 0.265 3.478 0.495 0.933 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.495 SERIES 054145 AND 054183 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.933 SERIES 054115 AND 054117 118 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1877. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.832 0.576 0.660 0.683 0.762 0.794 0.799 0.790 0.739 0.694 SDEV 0.000 0.175 0.128 0.134 0.095 0.092 0.100 0.105 0.103 0.130 SERR 0.000 0.013 0.009 0.010 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.008 0.007 0.009 EPS 0.984 0.964 0.975 0.977 0.985 0.987 0.988 0.987 0.983 0.978 NSS 12.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 171. RBAR 0.757 SDEV 0.096 SERR 0.007 EPS 0.984 NSS 19.5 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 1.004 0.099 -0.431 3.529 0.102 0.103 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.269 -0.053 0.115 32 97 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.32 1.00 1.09 1.40 2.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.74 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.102 0.147 0.072 0.038 0.008 -0.005 -0.027 -0.189 -0.065 -0.111 PACF 0.102 0.138 0.047 0.008 -0.013 -0.015 -0.028 -0.188 -0.028 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.176 0.178 0.182 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.189 0.190 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.037 0.093 0.151 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.055 0.130 0.059 0.024 0.034 0.005 -0.032 -0.191 -0.052 -0.101 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.055 2 0.048 0.127 3 0.042 0.125 0.047 4 0.042 0.125 0.047 0.003 5 0.042 0.124 0.044 0.002 0.020 6 0.042 0.124 0.044 0.003 0.020 -0.004 7 0.042 0.125 0.045 0.005 0.025 -0.002 -0.041 8 0.034 0.124 0.050 0.005 0.034 0.022 -0.033 -0.195 9 0.028 0.123 0.050 0.006 0.034 0.024 -0.029 -0.194 -0.031 10 0.026 0.114 0.049 0.008 0.036 0.024 -0.027 -0.188 -0.029 -0.051 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 790.43 792.04 791.93 793.64 795.64 797.59 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 799.59 801.37 798.35 800.23 801.89 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 054101 0 0.004 2 054103 0 0.005 3 054105 0 0.000 4 054107 0 0.001 5 054111 0 0.014 6 054113 0 0.013 7 054115 0 0.056 8 054117 0 0.065 9 054131 0 0.036 10 054133 0 0.007 11 054135 0 0.001 12 054137 0 0.030 13 054141 0 0.009 14 054143 0 0.000 15 054145 0 0.028 16 054147 0 0.003 17 054181 0 0.015 18 054183 0 0.033 19 054185 0 0.027 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 054187 0 0.002 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.018 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.019 MEDIAN 0 0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.026 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.003 UPPER HINGE 0 0.029 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.065 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 054101 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.132 -0.409 2.822 0.141 0.059 2 054103 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.114 -0.149 2.218 0.120 0.068 3 054105 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.125 -0.283 2.746 0.135 -0.001 4 054107 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.120 -0.613 2.957 0.130 0.026 5 054111 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.109 -0.758 3.769 0.111 0.113 6 054113 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.124 -0.209 2.808 0.132 0.111 7 054115 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.117 -0.666 3.054 0.114 0.230 8 054117 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.121 -0.825 3.321 0.113 0.244 9 054131 1877 1995 119 1.000 0.083 -0.310 3.505 0.081 0.184 10 054133 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.087 -0.637 3.061 0.092 0.083 11 054135 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.083 -0.841 4.731 0.084 0.032 12 054137 1876 1995 120 1.000 0.080 -0.406 3.946 0.077 0.165 13 054141 1879 1995 117 1.000 0.110 -1.231 6.957 0.103 0.086 14 054143 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.091 -0.517 3.665 0.100 0.018 15 054145 1873 1980 108 1.000 0.103 -0.335 2.748 0.100 0.167 16 054147 1873 1995 123 1.000 0.098 -0.837 4.638 0.107 -0.052 17 054181 1870 1995 126 1.000 0.143 -0.280 3.303 0.151 0.117 18 054183 1868 1995 128 1.000 0.157 0.021 2.747 0.164 0.177 19 054185 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.148 -0.042 2.503 0.153 0.160 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 054187 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.139 -0.328 3.018 0.152 0.045 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.114 -0.483 3.426 0.118 0.102 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.023 0.315 1.057 0.026 0.079 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.116 -0.407 3.058 0.113 0.099 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 4 0.000 0.034 0.431 0.939 0.038 0.128 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.080 -1.231 2.218 0.077 -0.052 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 1.000 0.095 -0.712 2.778 0.100 0.038 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.129 -0.281 3.717 0.138 0.166 MAXIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.157 0.021 6.957 0.164 0.244 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.720 0.074 0.005 0.265 3.478 0.495 0.933 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.495 SERIES 054145 AND 054183 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.933 SERIES 054115 AND 054117 118 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 91.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1877. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.832 0.576 0.660 0.683 0.762 0.794 0.799 0.790 0.739 0.694 SDEV 0.000 0.175 0.128 0.134 0.095 0.092 0.100 0.105 0.103 0.130 SERR 0.000 0.013 0.009 0.010 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.008 0.007 0.009 EPS 0.984 0.964 0.975 0.977 0.985 0.987 0.988 0.987 0.983 0.978 NSS 12.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1980. CORR 171. RBAR 0.757 SDEV 0.096 SERR 0.007 EPS 0.984 NSS 19.5 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 1.004 0.099 -0.431 3.528 0.102 0.103 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.267 -0.053 0.114 31 98 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.30 1.01 1.11 1.41 2.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.74 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.102 0.147 0.072 0.038 0.008 -0.005 -0.027 -0.189 -0.065 -0.111 PACF 0.102 0.138 0.047 0.008 -0.013 -0.015 -0.028 -0.188 -0.028 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.176 0.178 0.182 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.189 0.190 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.037 0.092 0.151 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1867 1995 129 1.004 0.099 -0.431 3.528 0.102 0.103 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.102 0.147 0.072 0.038 0.008 -0.005 -0.027 -0.189 -0.065 -0.111 PACF 0.102 0.138 0.047 0.008 -0.013 -0.015 -0.028 -0.188 -0.028 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.176 0.178 0.182 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.189 0.190 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.037 0.092 0.151 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.20 MINUTES