RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM056I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM056I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 055 1 Sirnitz NE (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_EARLY ABAL - 055 2 Germany silver fir, European fir 940 4747-745 1841 1995 - 055 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 055025 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1979 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 055033 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 055161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1857 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 055167 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1936 1937 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 055171 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1937 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 055175 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1913 1914 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 055215 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1941 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 055021 1889 1995 107 3.004 0.400 2.424 12.284 0.067 0.680 2 055023 1865 1995 131 2.849 0.302 2.073 12.043 0.067 0.528 3 055025 1867 1995 129 2.926 0.280 0.728 5.828 0.071 0.404 4 055027 1881 1995 115 2.842 0.224 0.209 3.693 0.062 0.471 5 055031 1869 1995 127 2.716 0.295 1.354 8.171 0.075 0.524 6 055033 1869 1995 127 3.157 0.348 0.421 3.172 0.077 0.569 7 055035 1869 1995 127 3.439 0.309 0.191 3.542 0.070 0.456 8 055037 1869 1991 123 2.902 0.286 0.739 4.068 0.085 0.324 9 055161 1848 1995 148 2.860 0.410 1.253 5.050 0.098 0.582 10 055163 1848 1995 148 2.642 0.399 1.318 6.780 0.078 0.753 11 055165 1855 1995 141 3.026 0.239 0.575 4.260 0.067 0.376 12 055167 1848 1995 148 3.047 0.388 1.300 6.428 0.086 0.570 13 055171 1842 1995 154 3.748 0.748 2.481 10.272 0.065 0.814 14 055173 1848 1995 148 3.416 0.292 0.120 2.852 0.059 0.610 15 055175 1841 1995 155 3.407 0.414 1.590 10.241 0.066 0.627 16 055177 1841 1995 155 3.198 0.380 2.132 12.692 0.071 0.587 17 055211 1875 1995 121 3.125 0.342 1.176 6.461 0.080 0.436 18 055213 1875 1995 121 3.571 0.457 1.339 4.689 0.082 0.651 19 055215 1875 1995 121 3.427 0.308 1.450 6.460 0.085 0.195 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 055217 1875 1995 121 3.285 0.363 0.472 4.976 0.084 0.475 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1841 TO 1995 155 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 132 3.129 0.359 1.167 6.698 0.075 0.532 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.301 0.111 0.731 3.187 0.010 0.147 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 127 3.086 0.345 1.276 6.128 0.073 0.549 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.530 0.106 0.997 5.042 0.016 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 107 2.642 0.224 0.120 2.852 0.059 0.195 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 2.881 0.293 0.524 4.164 0.067 0.446 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 147 3.411 0.400 1.520 9.206 0.083 0.619 MAXIMUM VALUE 155 3.748 0.748 2.481 12.692 0.098 0.814 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.322 0.174 0.013 0.215 2.692 -0.135 0.760 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.135 SERIES 055033 AND 055213 121 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.760 SERIES 055163 AND 055167 148 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1851. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 1. 28. 91. 153. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.890 0.531 0.266 0.427 0.326 0.230 0.189 0.235 0.327 0.317 SDEV 0.000 0.243 0.291 0.208 0.276 0.285 0.283 0.274 0.227 0.243 SERR 0.000 0.046 0.031 0.017 0.020 0.021 0.021 0.020 0.016 0.018 EPS 0.979 0.935 0.864 0.936 0.906 0.857 0.823 0.860 0.907 0.903 NSS 5.8 12.6 17.5 19.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.325 0.248 0.247 SDEV 0.276 0.272 0.269 SERR 0.020 0.020 0.020 EPS 0.906 0.869 0.868 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1995 155 3.199 0.373 3.088 17.731 0.048 0.697 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.069 0.019 0.332 39 116 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.67 1.01 1.06 1.73 219.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.74 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 128. 27. 107. 121. 148. 155. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.693 0.575 0.491 0.418 0.391 0.392 0.394 0.385 0.320 0.288 PACF 0.693 0.183 0.077 0.027 0.081 0.105 0.083 0.047 -0.074 0.004 95% C.L. 0.161 0.225 0.260 0.283 0.298 0.311 0.324 0.336 0.347 0.355 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.696 0.593 0.276 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 055021 1 2.31119823 0.18371171 0.00000000 2.89681983 2 055023 1 2.21308947 0.30957291 0.00000000 2.80206656 3 055025 1 0.35663682 0.02493130 0.00000000 2.81817913 4 055027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00194974 2.95499778 5 055031 1 1.10994244 0.10891500 0.00000000 2.63979602 6 055033 1 0.81200004 0.06864280 0.00000000 3.06370211 7 055035 1 0.63627696 0.04158992 0.00000000 3.32113361 8 055037 1 1.15913105 0.18200979 0.00000000 2.85523176 9 055161 1 0.99350607 0.02940677 0.00000000 2.68035603 10 055163 1 1.03995383 0.01532400 0.00000000 2.23411512 11 055165 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00149882 3.13265753 12 055167 1 0.85493934 0.02128182 0.00000000 2.78879452 13 055171 1 3.44228697 0.06546206 0.00000000 3.41192365 14 055173 1 0.98438102 0.00533165 0.00000000 2.73665571 15 055175 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00576582 3.85996532 16 055177 1 1.35532963 0.06029195 0.00000000 3.05776572 17 055211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00161374 3.22331405 18 055213 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031940 3.59088850 19 055215 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029750 3.40557361 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 055217 1 1.39794433 0.19626349 0.00000000 3.23151541 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 055021 1889 1995 107 1.000 0.080 0.031 3.217 0.066 0.390 2 055023 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.078 -0.057 2.970 0.066 0.423 3 055025 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.089 0.188 4.024 0.070 0.358 4 055027 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.076 0.538 4.451 0.061 0.431 5 055031 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.084 0.148 3.027 0.074 0.368 6 055033 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.097 0.364 3.014 0.076 0.489 7 055035 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.079 0.060 4.164 0.069 0.316 8 055037 1869 1991 123 1.000 0.085 0.465 3.761 0.084 0.142 9 055161 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.125 0.945 4.981 0.094 0.535 10 055163 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.113 0.935 4.104 0.077 0.627 11 055165 1855 1995 141 1.000 0.077 0.858 4.862 0.067 0.331 12 055167 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.101 0.416 3.837 0.085 0.380 13 055171 1842 1995 154 1.000 0.084 -0.194 3.407 0.064 0.487 14 055173 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.074 0.622 4.166 0.058 0.479 15 055175 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.091 1.605 8.784 0.066 0.442 16 055177 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.080 0.059 3.544 0.070 0.352 17 055211 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.108 1.237 6.156 0.079 0.437 18 055213 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.128 1.327 4.649 0.081 0.646 19 055215 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.089 1.513 6.851 0.083 0.191 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 055217 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.097 -0.136 3.831 0.082 0.409 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 133 1.000 0.092 0.546 4.390 0.074 0.412 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.016 0.563 1.438 0.009 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.087 0.441 4.064 0.072 0.416 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 27 0.000 0.020 0.881 1.279 0.016 0.128 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.074 -0.194 2.970 0.058 0.142 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.079 0.059 3.476 0.066 0.355 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.099 0.940 4.755 0.082 0.483 MAXIMUM VALUE 155 1.000 0.128 1.605 8.784 0.094 0.646 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 055021 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 055023 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 055025 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 055027 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 055031 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 055033 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 055035 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 055037 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 055161 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 055163 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 055165 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 055167 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 055171 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 055173 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 055175 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 055177 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 055211 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 055213 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 055215 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 055217 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 055021 1889 1995 107 1.000 0.072 0.143 2.751 0.066 0.269 2 055023 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.068 0.059 2.964 0.066 0.233 3 055025 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.088 0.207 4.032 0.070 0.348 4 055027 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.075 0.636 4.463 0.061 0.416 5 055031 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.078 0.058 2.684 0.074 0.253 6 055033 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.093 0.265 2.832 0.076 0.437 7 055035 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.078 -0.020 4.085 0.069 0.299 8 055037 1869 1991 123 1.000 0.083 0.522 3.702 0.084 0.114 9 055161 1848 1995 148 0.999 0.117 0.865 4.841 0.094 0.465 10 055163 1848 1995 148 0.999 0.097 0.884 3.961 0.077 0.503 11 055165 1855 1995 141 1.000 0.075 0.896 4.901 0.067 0.298 12 055167 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.097 0.469 4.007 0.085 0.330 13 055171 1842 1995 154 1.000 0.079 -0.016 3.086 0.064 0.440 14 055173 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.071 0.598 3.950 0.058 0.428 15 055175 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.087 1.698 9.182 0.066 0.392 16 055177 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.078 0.242 4.160 0.070 0.299 17 055211 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.101 0.817 5.053 0.079 0.376 18 055213 1875 1995 121 0.999 0.109 1.149 3.986 0.081 0.497 19 055215 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.080 1.039 4.766 0.083 0.064 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 055217 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.089 -0.280 4.266 0.083 0.287 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 133 1.000 0.086 0.512 4.184 0.074 0.337 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.013 0.491 1.384 0.009 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.082 0.496 4.020 0.072 0.339 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 27 0.000 0.019 0.773 1.220 0.016 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.999 0.068 -0.280 2.684 0.058 0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.076 0.101 3.394 0.066 0.278 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.095 0.875 4.614 0.082 0.432 MAXIMUM VALUE 155 1.000 0.117 1.698 9.182 0.094 0.503 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.261 0.144 0.010 0.256 3.004 -0.089 0.685 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.089 SERIES 055023 AND 055213 121 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.685 SERIES 055031 AND 055033 127 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1851. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 1. 28. 91. 153. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.745 0.415 0.310 0.391 0.341 0.231 0.185 0.229 0.319 0.324 SDEV 0.000 0.259 0.278 0.229 0.249 0.270 0.286 0.283 0.222 0.236 SERR 0.000 0.049 0.029 0.019 0.018 0.020 0.021 0.021 0.016 0.017 EPS 0.945 0.899 0.887 0.926 0.912 0.857 0.820 0.856 0.903 0.906 NSS 5.8 12.6 17.5 19.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.325 0.254 0.254 SDEV 0.269 0.275 0.254 SERR 0.020 0.020 0.018 EPS 0.906 0.872 0.872 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1995 155 0.997 0.060 0.696 7.684 0.053 0.252 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.213 0.084 -0.014 50 105 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 1.04 1.00 1.10 2.14 8.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.51 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.250 0.179 -0.039 -0.107 -0.108 -0.014 -0.005 0.026 -0.074 -0.069 PACF 0.250 0.124 -0.118 -0.105 -0.039 0.056 -0.002 -0.002 -0.105 -0.042 95% C.L. 0.161 0.170 0.175 0.175 0.177 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.180 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.138 0.241 0.215 -0.110 -0.136 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.142 0.178 -0.060 -0.110 -0.050 0.017 -0.041 0.021 -0.134 -0.065 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.142 2 0.119 0.161 3 0.136 0.174 -0.109 4 0.123 0.195 -0.092 -0.124 5 0.124 0.196 -0.094 -0.125 0.010 6 0.123 0.204 -0.088 -0.138 0.002 0.064 7 0.128 0.204 -0.097 -0.144 0.015 0.072 -0.065 8 0.128 0.205 -0.097 -0.144 0.015 0.072 -0.065 -0.001 9 0.127 0.196 -0.088 -0.142 -0.003 0.060 -0.039 0.015 -0.126 10 0.123 0.197 -0.089 -0.139 -0.003 0.055 -0.043 0.023 -0.121 -0.037 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 725.01 723.87 721.81 721.96 721.56 723.55 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 724.91 726.25 728.25 727.76 729.55 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.119 0.161 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.54 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.76 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.119 0.175 0.040 0.033 0.010 0.007 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 055021 2 0.097 0.237 0.144 2 055023 2 0.105 0.183 0.220 3 055025 2 0.203 0.270 0.256 4 055027 2 0.184 0.403 0.053 5 055031 2 0.078 0.265 -0.012 6 055033 2 0.223 0.363 0.177 7 055035 2 0.111 0.296 0.060 8 055037 2 0.025 0.104 0.102 9 055161 2 0.273 0.343 0.265 10 055163 2 0.284 0.423 0.168 11 055165 2 0.110 0.266 0.111 12 055167 2 0.134 0.289 0.139 13 055171 2 0.223 0.422 0.082 14 055173 2 0.201 0.388 0.111 15 055175 2 0.211 0.384 0.126 16 055177 2 0.110 0.294 0.082 17 055211 2 0.190 0.351 0.148 18 055213 2 0.316 0.389 0.239 19 055215 2 0.015 0.069 -0.037 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 055217 2 0.131 0.247 0.192 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.161 0.299 0.131 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.083 0.099 0.082 MEDIAN 2 0.159 0.295 0.132 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.110 0.130 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.015 0.069 -0.037 LOWER HINGE 2 0.107 0.256 0.082 UPPER HINGE 2 0.217 0.386 0.184 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.316 0.423 0.265 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 055021 1889 1995 107 1.000 0.068 0.205 2.772 0.074 0.003 2 055023 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.064 0.069 3.132 0.071 0.016 3 055025 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.079 0.421 4.114 0.077 0.032 4 055027 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.067 0.573 3.451 0.073 0.011 5 055031 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.075 0.095 2.791 0.084 -0.002 6 055033 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.082 0.270 2.983 0.091 0.009 7 055035 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.074 0.026 3.782 0.080 0.017 8 055037 1869 1991 123 1.000 0.082 0.428 3.588 0.088 0.005 9 055161 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.099 1.181 6.542 0.107 -0.004 10 055163 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.082 0.556 3.966 0.092 0.007 11 055165 1855 1995 141 1.000 0.071 0.967 4.942 0.077 0.011 12 055167 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.090 0.811 5.021 0.095 0.002 13 055171 1842 1995 154 1.000 0.070 0.400 3.612 0.077 0.013 14 055173 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.063 0.406 3.975 0.070 0.009 15 055175 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.076 1.136 6.834 0.081 -0.037 16 055177 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.073 0.396 3.814 0.082 -0.013 17 055211 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.090 0.595 4.314 0.093 -0.001 18 055213 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.090 0.477 2.887 0.099 -0.043 19 055215 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.080 1.070 4.836 0.085 -0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 055217 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.083 -0.271 4.239 0.091 0.030 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 133 1.000 0.078 0.491 4.080 0.084 0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.010 0.389 1.121 0.010 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.077 0.424 3.890 0.083 0.006 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 27 0.000 0.012 0.465 1.283 0.015 0.015 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.063 -0.271 2.772 0.070 -0.043 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.071 0.237 3.291 0.077 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.083 0.703 4.575 0.092 0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 155 1.000 0.099 1.181 6.834 0.107 0.032 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.301 0.131 0.010 0.636 3.014 0.061 0.695 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.061 SERIES 055023 AND 055213 121 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.695 SERIES 055031 AND 055033 127 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1851. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 1. 28. 91. 153. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.722 0.507 0.359 0.422 0.393 0.267 0.202 0.262 0.364 0.414 SDEV 0.000 0.204 0.249 0.188 0.207 0.239 0.276 0.243 0.173 0.193 SERR 0.000 0.038 0.026 0.015 0.015 0.017 0.020 0.018 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.938 0.928 0.907 0.934 0.928 0.879 0.835 0.877 0.920 0.934 NSS 5.8 12.6 17.5 19.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.399 0.290 0.219 SDEV 0.201 0.230 0.218 SERR 0.015 0.017 0.016 EPS 0.930 0.891 0.848 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1995 155 0.997 0.053 0.400 6.587 0.058 -0.049 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.205 0.079 -0.018 50 105 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.88 1.01 1.09 1.97 8.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.63 0.88 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.049 0.022 -0.086 -0.139 -0.086 0.004 -0.011 0.101 -0.074 -0.003 PACF -0.049 0.020 -0.084 -0.149 -0.101 -0.010 -0.036 0.063 -0.094 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.162 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.168 0.169 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.005 -0.001 -0.090 -0.149 -0.092 0.001 -0.002 0.097 -0.069 -0.007 PACF 0.005 -0.001 -0.090 -0.150 -0.095 -0.011 -0.031 0.059 -0.099 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.162 0.165 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.169 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.010 0.005 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1995 155 0.998 0.054 0.473 7.250 0.054 0.114 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.113 0.121 -0.088 -0.142 -0.115 -0.016 -0.015 0.078 -0.071 -0.041 PACF 0.113 0.110 -0.116 -0.139 -0.064 0.029 -0.019 0.047 -0.108 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.161 0.163 0.165 0.166 0.169 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.172 0.173 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.082 0.104 0.171 -0.114 -0.170 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.40 MINUTES