RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM056N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM056N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 055 1 Sirnitz NE (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MINIMUM ABAL - 055 2 Germany silver fir, European fir 940 4747-745 1841 1995 - 055 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 055021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1913 1919 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 055025 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1907 1911 / 1979 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 055033 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 055161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1857 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 055163 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1904 1908 / 1946 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 055167 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1936 1937 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 055171 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1937 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 055173 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1881 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 055175 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1913 1914 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 055213 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1894 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 055215 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1941 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 055021 1889 1995 107 0.221 0.036 1.990 8.765 0.067 0.745 2 055023 1865 1995 131 0.206 0.029 1.901 10.858 0.071 0.654 3 055025 1867 1995 129 0.210 0.026 0.014 3.016 0.081 0.558 4 055027 1881 1995 115 0.204 0.020 -0.341 3.164 0.077 0.492 5 055031 1869 1995 127 0.188 0.028 1.582 9.027 0.085 0.604 6 055033 1869 1995 127 0.228 0.032 0.518 3.051 0.081 0.677 7 055035 1869 1995 127 0.252 0.027 0.509 3.600 0.072 0.580 8 055037 1869 1991 123 0.199 0.028 0.764 3.921 0.093 0.594 9 055161 1848 1995 148 0.203 0.035 1.510 6.192 0.089 0.725 10 055163 1848 1995 148 0.183 0.036 1.582 8.352 0.093 0.764 11 055165 1855 1995 141 0.222 0.018 0.033 3.232 0.068 0.442 12 055167 1848 1995 148 0.225 0.031 1.505 8.027 0.084 0.665 13 055171 1842 1995 154 0.271 0.073 2.720 10.547 0.069 0.863 14 055173 1848 1995 148 0.243 0.026 0.311 2.907 0.077 0.613 15 055175 1841 1995 155 0.243 0.036 2.894 17.778 0.063 0.687 16 055177 1841 1995 155 0.224 0.038 3.070 18.016 0.084 0.640 17 055211 1875 1995 121 0.208 0.032 -0.121 11.328 0.088 0.500 18 055213 1875 1995 121 0.259 0.044 1.544 6.277 0.089 0.760 19 055215 1875 1995 121 0.237 0.031 1.843 8.599 0.087 0.521 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 055217 1875 1995 121 0.222 0.038 1.259 6.721 0.086 0.653 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1841 TO 1995 155 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 0.222 0.033 1.254 7.669 0.080 0.637 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.023 0.011 1.015 4.512 0.009 0.106 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 127 0.222 0.032 1.508 7.374 0.083 0.647 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 21 0.035 0.008 1.462 6.371 0.016 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 100 0.183 0.018 -0.341 2.907 0.063 0.442 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 0.205 0.028 0.410 3.416 0.072 0.569 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 142 0.240 0.036 1.872 9.787 0.087 0.706 MAXIMUM VALUE 155 0.271 0.073 3.070 18.016 0.093 0.863 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.255 0.216 0.016 0.248 2.623 -0.260 0.796 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.260 SERIES 055027 AND 055213 115 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.796 SERIES 055171 AND 055177 154 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1851. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 1. 28. 91. 153. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.924 0.512 0.174 0.391 0.301 0.239 0.255 0.231 0.215 0.284 SDEV 0.000 0.198 0.308 0.238 0.252 0.287 0.276 0.283 0.257 0.258 SERR 0.000 0.037 0.032 0.019 0.018 0.021 0.020 0.021 0.019 0.019 EPS 0.986 0.930 0.787 0.926 0.896 0.863 0.872 0.858 0.846 0.888 NSS 5.8 12.6 17.5 19.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.176 0.146 0.138 SDEV 0.311 0.354 0.312 SERR 0.023 0.026 0.023 EPS 0.810 0.773 0.761 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1995 155 0.230 0.037 3.565 19.695 0.049 0.764 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.222 0.061 0.019 49 106 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.69 1.00 1.08 1.76 8.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.75 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 128. 27. 107. 121. 148. 155. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.759 0.615 0.538 0.472 0.403 0.398 0.377 0.348 0.300 0.256 PACF 0.759 0.093 0.103 0.037 -0.008 0.128 0.022 0.016 -0.044 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.161 0.236 0.274 0.300 0.319 0.332 0.344 0.354 0.363 0.369 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.802 0.895 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 055021 1 0.14394039 0.08354326 0.00000000 0.20631094 2 055023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041862 0.23404111 3 055025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016936 0.22133036 4 055027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013091 0.21133180 5 055031 1 0.17118904 0.23992717 0.00000000 0.18337540 6 055033 1 0.10097620 0.16028510 0.00000000 0.22344707 7 055035 1 0.10963473 0.24785215 0.00000000 0.24905683 8 055037 1 0.10635610 0.12124819 0.00000000 0.19256043 9 055161 1 0.09250423 0.02865904 0.00000000 0.18512712 10 055163 1 0.15484078 0.11432157 0.00000000 0.17475928 11 055165 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002650 0.22365451 12 055167 1 0.09946354 0.07794787 0.00000000 0.21641882 13 055171 1 0.35828301 0.06856735 0.00000000 0.23751219 14 055173 1 0.04843416 0.02309150 0.00000000 0.22974552 15 055175 1 0.31741083 0.32063362 0.00000000 0.23711258 16 055177 1 0.25627694 0.17520486 0.00000000 0.21510760 17 055211 1 0.16202855 0.27349246 0.00000000 0.20367675 18 055213 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005120 0.25494173 19 055215 1 0.13731693 0.19207089 0.00000000 0.23129541 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 055217 1 0.19221485 0.22149827 0.00000000 0.21557663 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 055021 1889 1995 107 1.000 0.086 0.236 2.653 0.064 0.508 2 055023 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.110 1.118 8.135 0.071 0.548 3 055025 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.117 -0.034 3.028 0.081 0.546 4 055027 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.096 -0.173 3.201 0.077 0.472 5 055031 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.115 0.064 2.386 0.083 0.525 6 055033 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.127 0.437 2.963 0.081 0.647 7 055035 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.099 0.314 3.378 0.071 0.542 8 055037 1869 1991 123 1.000 0.113 0.335 3.339 0.091 0.422 9 055161 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.137 0.494 3.680 0.088 0.655 10 055163 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.139 -0.030 2.989 0.091 0.648 11 055165 1855 1995 141 1.000 0.080 0.040 3.220 0.067 0.436 12 055167 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.107 -0.075 3.594 0.083 0.546 13 055171 1842 1995 154 1.000 0.089 -0.014 3.379 0.067 0.506 14 055173 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.092 0.258 2.712 0.077 0.502 15 055175 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.099 0.349 2.872 0.061 0.675 16 055177 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.100 0.195 2.770 0.082 0.444 17 055211 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.134 -1.368 13.679 0.086 0.450 18 055213 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.171 1.605 6.528 0.088 0.747 19 055215 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.104 1.089 5.235 0.085 0.372 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 055217 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.142 0.582 4.739 0.084 0.635 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 133 1.000 0.113 0.271 4.224 0.079 0.541 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.023 0.595 2.645 0.009 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.109 0.247 3.279 0.082 0.533 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 27 0.000 0.033 0.487 1.292 0.014 0.180 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.080 -1.368 2.386 0.061 0.372 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.097 -0.022 2.918 0.071 0.461 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.130 0.466 4.210 0.086 0.641 MAXIMUM VALUE 155 1.000 0.171 1.605 13.679 0.091 0.747 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 055021 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 055023 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 055025 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 055027 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 055031 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 055033 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 055035 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 055037 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 055161 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 055163 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 055165 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 055167 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 055171 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 055173 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 055175 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 055177 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 055211 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 055213 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 055215 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 055217 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 055021 1889 1995 107 1.000 0.078 0.359 2.753 0.065 0.424 2 055023 1865 1995 131 0.999 0.104 1.000 7.756 0.071 0.515 3 055025 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.113 0.075 3.269 0.080 0.501 4 055027 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.087 0.052 3.297 0.077 0.360 5 055031 1869 1995 127 0.999 0.101 0.347 3.180 0.083 0.361 6 055033 1869 1995 127 0.999 0.112 0.569 3.366 0.082 0.554 7 055035 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.088 0.129 4.152 0.071 0.411 8 055037 1869 1991 123 1.000 0.107 0.286 3.644 0.091 0.344 9 055161 1848 1995 148 0.999 0.123 0.485 4.388 0.089 0.571 10 055163 1848 1995 148 0.999 0.111 0.234 3.142 0.092 0.446 11 055165 1855 1995 141 1.000 0.077 0.097 3.484 0.067 0.395 12 055167 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.098 -0.110 3.504 0.083 0.451 13 055171 1842 1995 154 1.000 0.085 0.018 3.592 0.067 0.474 14 055173 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.087 0.196 2.627 0.077 0.440 15 055175 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.075 0.129 3.141 0.061 0.466 16 055177 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.087 0.074 2.725 0.082 0.256 17 055211 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.128 -1.588 15.258 0.086 0.398 18 055213 1875 1995 121 0.998 0.148 1.561 6.887 0.089 0.674 19 055215 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.098 1.198 6.368 0.086 0.296 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 055217 1875 1995 121 0.999 0.121 0.265 5.270 0.084 0.508 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 133 0.999 0.101 0.269 4.590 0.079 0.442 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.019 0.610 2.893 0.009 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.099 0.215 3.494 0.082 0.443 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 27 0.000 0.025 0.348 1.668 0.014 0.127 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.998 0.075 -1.588 2.627 0.061 0.256 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 0.999 0.087 0.075 3.161 0.071 0.378 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.113 0.422 4.829 0.086 0.505 MAXIMUM VALUE 155 1.000 0.148 1.561 15.258 0.092 0.674 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.209 0.149 0.011 0.084 2.626 -0.124 0.600 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.124 SERIES 055033 AND 055161 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.600 SERIES 055031 AND 055037 123 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1851. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 1. 28. 91. 153. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.387 0.358 0.247 0.357 0.335 0.249 0.253 0.205 0.226 0.289 SDEV 0.000 0.201 0.290 0.235 0.227 0.264 0.281 0.289 0.249 0.257 SERR 0.000 0.038 0.030 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.020 0.021 0.018 0.019 EPS 0.787 0.876 0.851 0.915 0.910 0.869 0.871 0.837 0.854 0.891 NSS 5.8 12.6 17.5 19.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.181 0.163 0.147 SDEV 0.295 0.323 0.293 SERR 0.021 0.023 0.021 EPS 0.816 0.795 0.775 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1995 155 0.996 0.054 -0.126 3.566 0.046 0.424 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.064 0.025 0.058 48 107 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 1.50 1.01 1.09 2.59 19.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.54 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.421 0.193 0.051 -0.120 -0.160 -0.071 -0.083 -0.114 -0.099 -0.083 PACF 0.421 0.019 -0.044 -0.158 -0.063 0.061 -0.058 -0.100 -0.053 -0.017 95% C.L. 0.161 0.187 0.192 0.192 0.194 0.198 0.198 0.199 0.201 0.202 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.182 0.426 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.355 0.129 -0.007 -0.107 -0.117 -0.023 -0.066 -0.099 -0.097 -0.104 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.355 2 0.354 0.003 3 0.355 0.024 -0.061 4 0.349 0.027 -0.026 -0.099 5 0.344 0.025 -0.025 -0.082 -0.048 6 0.346 0.030 -0.023 -0.083 -0.068 0.056 7 0.351 0.025 -0.030 -0.085 -0.065 0.084 -0.080 8 0.344 0.032 -0.035 -0.092 -0.068 0.086 -0.051 -0.083 9 0.340 0.029 -0.031 -0.095 -0.072 0.084 -0.049 -0.066 -0.050 10 0.337 0.025 -0.034 -0.091 -0.076 0.079 -0.051 -0.064 -0.032 -0.054 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 750.21 731.29 733.29 734.71 735.20 736.84 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 738.36 739.36 740.28 741.88 743.43 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.355 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.63 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 114.45 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.355 0.126 0.045 0.016 0.006 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 055021 1 0.200 0.438 2 055023 1 0.354 0.576 3 055025 1 0.276 0.515 4 055027 1 0.133 0.363 5 055031 1 0.137 0.371 6 055033 1 0.308 0.555 7 055035 1 0.189 0.434 8 055037 1 0.141 0.355 9 055161 1 0.335 0.572 10 055163 1 0.228 0.446 11 055165 1 0.162 0.397 12 055167 1 0.212 0.454 13 055171 1 0.233 0.481 14 055173 1 0.220 0.442 15 055175 1 0.218 0.467 16 055177 1 0.081 0.258 17 055211 1 0.226 0.475 18 055213 1 0.484 0.695 19 055215 1 0.090 0.298 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 055217 1 0.295 0.543 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.226 0.457 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.097 0.103 MEDIAN 1 0.219 0.450 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.134 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.081 0.258 LOWER HINGE 1 0.152 0.384 UPPER HINGE 1 0.286 0.529 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.484 0.695 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 055021 1889 1995 107 1.000 0.070 0.384 2.754 0.080 -0.049 2 055023 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.082 0.466 5.162 0.097 -0.164 3 055025 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.096 0.510 4.308 0.103 -0.063 4 055027 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.081 -0.199 3.675 0.092 -0.014 5 055031 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.093 0.348 3.116 0.101 0.009 6 055033 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.094 0.646 4.063 0.098 -0.018 7 055035 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.079 0.251 4.335 0.086 0.011 8 055037 1869 1991 123 1.000 0.100 0.130 3.744 0.108 -0.034 9 055161 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.101 0.592 4.665 0.115 -0.061 10 055163 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.100 0.263 3.047 0.116 -0.084 11 055165 1855 1995 141 1.000 0.071 0.179 3.534 0.084 -0.029 12 055167 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.087 0.224 3.518 0.100 -0.040 13 055171 1842 1995 154 1.000 0.075 0.542 3.969 0.083 -0.014 14 055173 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.078 0.020 2.631 0.098 -0.074 15 055175 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.067 -0.147 3.234 0.076 -0.003 16 055177 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.084 0.226 2.877 0.094 -0.032 17 055211 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.113 -2.491 20.923 0.100 0.086 18 055213 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.105 0.404 4.326 0.122 -0.058 19 055215 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.094 1.185 6.613 0.097 0.014 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 055217 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.102 0.563 5.821 0.109 0.013 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 133 1.000 0.089 0.205 4.816 0.098 -0.030 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.013 0.703 3.926 0.012 0.050 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.090 0.306 3.857 0.098 -0.030 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 27 0.000 0.021 0.372 1.325 0.017 0.063 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.067 -2.491 2.631 0.076 -0.164 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.079 0.154 3.175 0.089 -0.059 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.100 0.526 4.500 0.105 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 155 1.000 0.113 1.185 20.923 0.122 0.086 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.238 0.120 0.009 0.349 3.062 -0.038 0.606 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.038 SERIES 055027 AND 055213 115 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.606 SERIES 055031 AND 055037 123 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1851. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 1. 28. 91. 153. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.427 0.359 0.261 0.371 0.337 0.250 0.214 0.197 0.291 0.367 SDEV 0.000 0.185 0.251 0.202 0.189 0.232 0.259 0.242 0.186 0.202 SERR 0.000 0.035 0.026 0.016 0.014 0.017 0.019 0.018 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.813 0.876 0.861 0.920 0.910 0.869 0.844 0.830 0.891 0.921 NSS 5.8 12.6 17.5 19.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.245 0.174 0.161 SDEV 0.234 0.240 0.242 SERR 0.017 0.017 0.018 EPS 0.866 0.808 0.793 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1995 155 0.998 0.048 -0.140 3.133 0.054 -0.018 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.218 0.090 -0.019 47 108 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.58 1.01 1.07 1.64 11.36 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.79 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.018 0.043 0.044 -0.117 -0.100 0.019 -0.032 -0.058 -0.077 -0.030 PACF -0.018 0.043 0.046 -0.118 -0.109 0.025 -0.010 -0.067 -0.108 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.163 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.166 0.167 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.043 0.043 -0.118 -0.102 0.017 -0.033 -0.060 -0.078 -0.033 PACF 0.001 0.043 0.043 -0.121 -0.107 0.027 -0.012 -0.069 -0.107 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.163 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.166 0.167 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1995 155 0.999 0.051 -0.241 3.586 0.046 0.365 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.363 0.160 0.048 -0.117 -0.130 -0.049 -0.074 -0.109 -0.130 -0.115 PACF 0.363 0.032 -0.023 -0.152 -0.049 0.046 -0.055 -0.097 -0.095 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.161 0.181 0.184 0.184 0.186 0.189 0.189 0.190 0.191 0.194 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.135 0.366 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.35 MINUTES