RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GERM056X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GERM056X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 055 1 Sirnitz NE (D), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MAXIMUM ABAL - 055 2 Germany silver fir, European fir 940 4747-745 1841 1995 - 055 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 055025 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1979 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 055033 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 055161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1857 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 055167 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1936 1937 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 055171 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1937 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 055175 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1913 1914 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 055215 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1941 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 055021 1889 1995 107 0.849 0.081 -1.195 5.981 0.084 0.304 2 055023 1865 1995 131 0.823 0.078 -0.752 5.060 0.091 0.233 3 055025 1867 1995 129 0.838 0.077 -1.137 5.762 0.081 0.294 4 055027 1881 1995 115 0.843 0.067 -1.816 12.092 0.085 -0.045 5 055031 1869 1995 127 0.794 0.080 -0.655 3.806 0.101 0.201 6 055033 1869 1995 127 0.845 0.085 -0.304 2.730 0.092 0.348 7 055035 1869 1995 127 0.899 0.095 -0.641 3.899 0.104 0.202 8 055037 1869 1991 123 0.813 0.070 -0.353 3.087 0.092 0.167 9 055161 1848 1995 148 0.790 0.069 -0.306 3.135 0.081 0.345 10 055163 1848 1995 148 0.808 0.073 -0.632 3.741 0.078 0.350 11 055165 1855 1995 141 0.850 0.068 -0.278 3.511 0.073 0.361 12 055167 1848 1995 148 0.814 0.093 -0.236 2.605 0.091 0.530 13 055171 1842 1995 154 0.905 0.091 -1.003 4.522 0.072 0.481 14 055173 1848 1995 148 0.860 0.080 -0.815 4.132 0.089 0.162 15 055175 1841 1995 155 0.863 0.079 -0.608 3.855 0.079 0.280 16 055177 1841 1995 155 0.844 0.078 -0.854 6.335 0.080 0.291 17 055211 1875 1995 121 0.828 0.080 -0.512 3.516 0.085 0.346 18 055213 1875 1995 121 0.858 0.080 -0.738 3.693 0.075 0.453 19 055215 1875 1995 121 0.870 0.066 -0.160 2.996 0.083 0.079 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 055217 1875 1995 121 0.864 0.082 -1.445 7.796 0.078 0.390 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1841 TO 1995 155 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 132 0.843 0.079 -0.722 4.613 0.085 0.289 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.031 0.008 0.431 2.214 0.009 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 127 0.844 0.080 -0.648 3.831 0.083 0.299 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 26 0.043 0.010 0.599 2.088 0.012 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.790 0.066 -1.816 2.605 0.072 -0.045 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 0.818 0.071 -0.929 3.323 0.079 0.201 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 147 0.861 0.081 -0.330 5.411 0.091 0.356 MAXIMUM VALUE 155 0.905 0.095 -0.160 12.092 0.104 0.530 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.503 0.117 0.008 -0.226 3.630 0.081 0.797 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.081 SERIES 055165 AND 055217 121 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.797 SERIES 055021 AND 055025 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1851. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 1. 28. 91. 153. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.863 0.698 0.400 0.443 0.480 0.552 0.576 0.464 0.487 0.466 SDEV 0.000 0.136 0.239 0.210 0.219 0.167 0.162 0.200 0.190 0.213 SERR 0.000 0.026 0.025 0.017 0.016 0.012 0.012 0.015 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.974 0.967 0.921 0.939 0.949 0.961 0.964 0.945 0.950 0.946 NSS 5.8 12.6 17.5 19.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.473 0.458 0.347 SDEV 0.228 0.196 0.249 SERR 0.017 0.014 0.018 EPS 0.947 0.944 0.914 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1995 155 0.847 0.062 -0.863 6.235 0.065 0.258 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.113 -0.033 0.090 32 123 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.36 1.00 1.08 1.44 12.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.68 0.86 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 128. 27. 107. 121. 148. 155. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.257 0.333 0.256 0.199 0.087 0.130 0.130 -0.014 0.057 0.042 PACF 0.257 0.286 0.142 0.047 -0.072 0.032 0.078 -0.107 0.005 0.028 95% C.L. 0.161 0.171 0.187 0.196 0.201 0.202 0.204 0.206 0.206 0.207 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.190 0.142 0.287 0.152 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 055021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00126854 0.91784692 2 055023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087327 0.88015503 3 055025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00078607 0.88826048 4 055027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013564 0.85125858 5 055031 1 0.11222419 0.03992841 0.00000000 0.77269655 6 055033 1 0.14153284 0.01136576 0.00000000 0.77073956 7 055035 1 0.21309893 0.00766252 0.00000000 0.76311815 8 055037 1 0.14850278 0.00665552 0.00000000 0.71211463 9 055161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061408 0.83891290 10 055163 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000157 0.80778819 11 055165 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024171 0.86730295 12 055167 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00078239 0.87181276 13 055171 1 0.61971331 0.00168940 0.00000000 0.35921463 14 055173 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039076 0.88897681 15 055175 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044203 0.89761335 16 055177 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00072060 0.89981985 17 055211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00115228 0.89814049 18 055213 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00117538 0.92921901 19 055215 1 0.03413732 0.01286427 0.00000000 0.85380727 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 055217 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00081446 0.91331816 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 055021 1889 1995 107 1.000 0.085 -1.171 6.005 0.083 0.142 2 055023 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.086 -1.041 5.066 0.090 0.086 3 055025 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.085 -0.950 5.710 0.079 0.207 4 055027 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.080 -1.789 11.658 0.085 -0.046 5 055031 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.096 -0.537 4.129 0.100 0.099 6 055033 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.094 -0.117 3.023 0.090 0.259 7 055035 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.098 -0.470 4.070 0.103 0.083 8 055037 1869 1991 123 1.000 0.081 -0.297 3.318 0.091 0.059 9 055161 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.081 -0.363 3.099 0.080 0.259 10 055163 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.090 -0.632 3.742 0.078 0.348 11 055165 1855 1995 141 1.000 0.079 -0.221 3.556 0.072 0.345 12 055167 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.106 -0.348 2.906 0.089 0.463 13 055171 1842 1995 154 1.000 0.091 -0.786 4.293 0.072 0.369 14 055173 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.091 -0.903 4.069 0.088 0.131 15 055175 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.088 -0.656 3.845 0.080 0.232 16 055177 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.085 -0.953 6.376 0.079 0.155 17 055211 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.084 -0.431 3.319 0.084 0.164 18 055213 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.081 -0.606 3.246 0.075 0.277 19 055215 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.075 -0.139 2.930 0.081 0.068 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 055217 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.090 -1.173 7.240 0.077 0.335 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 133 1.000 0.087 -0.679 4.580 0.084 0.202 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.007 0.421 2.079 0.008 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.086 -0.619 3.957 0.082 0.186 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 27 0.000 0.010 0.596 2.106 0.011 0.214 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.075 -1.789 2.906 0.072 -0.046 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.081 -0.951 3.282 0.078 0.092 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.091 -0.356 5.388 0.089 0.306 MAXIMUM VALUE 155 1.000 0.106 -0.117 11.658 0.103 0.463 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 055021 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 055023 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 055025 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 055027 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 055031 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 055033 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 055035 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 055037 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 055161 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 055163 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 055165 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 055167 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 055171 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 055173 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 055175 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 055177 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 055211 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 055213 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 055215 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 055217 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 055021 1889 1995 107 1.000 0.078 -0.954 5.115 0.083 0.000 2 055023 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.084 -0.926 5.203 0.090 0.023 3 055025 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.075 -0.798 5.081 0.079 0.001 4 055027 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.077 -1.641 10.711 0.085 -0.119 5 055031 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.093 -0.470 4.102 0.100 0.050 6 055033 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.091 -0.144 3.128 0.089 0.209 7 055035 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.096 -0.583 4.473 0.103 0.045 8 055037 1869 1991 123 1.000 0.079 -0.300 3.431 0.091 0.014 9 055161 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.078 -0.331 3.070 0.080 0.208 10 055163 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.086 -0.659 3.759 0.078 0.296 11 055165 1855 1995 141 1.000 0.077 -0.300 3.510 0.072 0.294 12 055167 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.101 -0.241 2.787 0.089 0.405 13 055171 1842 1995 154 1.000 0.088 -0.918 4.914 0.072 0.316 14 055173 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.089 -0.802 4.087 0.088 0.074 15 055175 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.087 -0.654 3.913 0.080 0.210 16 055177 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.083 -0.885 5.759 0.079 0.119 17 055211 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.082 -0.372 3.209 0.084 0.117 18 055213 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.076 -0.290 3.151 0.075 0.199 19 055215 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.074 -0.259 3.167 0.081 0.036 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 055217 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.086 -0.977 6.527 0.077 0.289 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 133 1.000 0.084 -0.625 4.455 0.084 0.139 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.007 0.369 1.793 0.008 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.083 -0.618 4.000 0.082 0.118 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 27 0.000 0.011 0.601 1.910 0.011 0.220 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.074 -1.641 2.787 0.072 -0.119 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.077 -0.902 3.188 0.079 0.030 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.088 -0.300 5.098 0.089 0.250 MAXIMUM VALUE 155 1.000 0.101 -0.144 10.711 0.103 0.405 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.485 0.129 0.009 -0.314 3.120 0.067 0.788 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.067 SERIES 055165 AND 055217 121 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.788 SERIES 055031 AND 055033 127 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1851. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 1. 28. 91. 153. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.864 0.690 0.415 0.458 0.478 0.559 0.578 0.460 0.517 0.454 SDEV 0.000 0.143 0.230 0.206 0.216 0.158 0.160 0.202 0.175 0.212 SERR 0.000 0.027 0.024 0.017 0.016 0.011 0.012 0.015 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.974 0.966 0.925 0.943 0.948 0.962 0.965 0.945 0.955 0.943 NSS 5.8 12.6 17.5 19.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.446 0.447 0.381 SDEV 0.233 0.200 0.230 SERR 0.017 0.015 0.017 EPS 0.941 0.942 0.925 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1995 155 1.002 0.065 -0.918 6.157 0.066 0.069 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.163 -0.050 0.105 36 119 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.43 1.02 1.07 1.50 95.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.49 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.069 0.170 0.082 0.021 -0.077 0.001 0.032 -0.128 -0.030 -0.075 PACF 0.069 0.166 0.062 -0.016 -0.105 0.003 0.065 -0.124 -0.036 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.166 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.171 0.171 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.041 0.061 0.179 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.037 0.133 0.032 0.014 -0.047 -0.002 0.062 -0.071 -0.008 -0.052 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.037 2 -0.032 0.132 3 -0.038 0.133 0.042 4 -0.038 0.133 0.042 -0.001 5 -0.038 0.136 0.049 -0.003 -0.058 6 -0.038 0.136 0.050 -0.002 -0.058 -0.010 7 -0.038 0.140 0.050 -0.005 -0.069 -0.007 0.077 8 -0.033 0.140 0.046 -0.006 -0.065 0.002 0.074 -0.062 9 -0.035 0.142 0.046 -0.008 -0.066 0.003 0.079 -0.063 -0.032 10 -0.036 0.139 0.049 -0.008 -0.069 0.003 0.081 -0.056 -0.033 -0.045 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 807.06 808.84 808.12 809.85 811.85 813.33 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 815.32 816.40 817.81 819.66 821.35 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 055021 0 0.000 2 055023 0 0.001 3 055025 0 0.000 4 055027 0 0.019 5 055031 0 0.003 6 055033 0 0.047 7 055035 0 0.002 8 055037 0 0.000 9 055161 0 0.045 10 055163 0 0.094 11 055165 0 0.088 12 055167 0 0.164 13 055171 0 0.114 14 055173 0 0.006 15 055175 0 0.049 16 055177 0 0.016 17 055211 0 0.015 18 055213 0 0.042 19 055215 0 0.001 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 055217 0 0.102 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.040 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.048 MEDIAN 0 0.018 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.067 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.002 UPPER HINGE 0 0.069 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.164 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 055021 1889 1995 107 1.000 0.078 -0.954 5.115 0.083 0.000 2 055023 1865 1995 131 1.000 0.084 -0.926 5.203 0.090 0.023 3 055025 1867 1995 129 1.000 0.075 -0.798 5.081 0.079 0.001 4 055027 1881 1995 115 1.000 0.077 -1.641 10.711 0.085 -0.119 5 055031 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.093 -0.470 4.102 0.100 0.050 6 055033 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.091 -0.144 3.128 0.089 0.209 7 055035 1869 1995 127 1.000 0.096 -0.583 4.473 0.103 0.045 8 055037 1869 1991 123 1.000 0.079 -0.300 3.431 0.091 0.014 9 055161 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.078 -0.331 3.070 0.080 0.208 10 055163 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.086 -0.659 3.759 0.078 0.296 11 055165 1855 1995 141 1.000 0.077 -0.300 3.510 0.072 0.294 12 055167 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.101 -0.241 2.787 0.089 0.405 13 055171 1842 1995 154 1.000 0.088 -0.918 4.914 0.072 0.316 14 055173 1848 1995 148 1.000 0.089 -0.802 4.087 0.088 0.074 15 055175 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.087 -0.654 3.913 0.080 0.210 16 055177 1841 1995 155 1.000 0.083 -0.885 5.759 0.079 0.119 17 055211 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.082 -0.372 3.209 0.084 0.117 18 055213 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.076 -0.290 3.151 0.075 0.199 19 055215 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.074 -0.259 3.167 0.081 0.036 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 055217 1875 1995 121 1.000 0.086 -0.977 6.527 0.077 0.289 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 133 1.000 0.084 -0.625 4.455 0.084 0.139 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.007 0.369 1.793 0.008 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.083 -0.618 4.000 0.082 0.118 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 27 0.000 0.011 0.601 1.910 0.011 0.220 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.074 -1.641 2.787 0.072 -0.119 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.077 -0.902 3.188 0.078 0.030 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.088 -0.300 5.098 0.089 0.250 MAXIMUM VALUE 155 1.000 0.101 -0.144 10.711 0.103 0.405 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.485 0.129 0.009 -0.314 3.120 0.067 0.788 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.067 SERIES 055165 AND 055217 121 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.788 SERIES 055031 AND 055033 127 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1851. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 1. 28. 91. 153. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.864 0.690 0.415 0.458 0.478 0.559 0.578 0.460 0.517 0.454 SDEV 0.000 0.143 0.230 0.206 0.216 0.158 0.160 0.202 0.175 0.212 SERR 0.000 0.027 0.024 0.017 0.016 0.011 0.012 0.015 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.974 0.966 0.925 0.943 0.948 0.962 0.965 0.945 0.955 0.943 NSS 5.8 12.6 17.5 19.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 YEAR 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.446 0.447 0.381 SDEV 0.233 0.200 0.230 SERR 0.017 0.015 0.017 EPS 0.941 0.942 0.925 NSS 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1995 155 1.002 0.065 -0.918 6.156 0.066 0.069 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.162 -0.050 0.105 36 119 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.43 1.01 1.07 1.50 99.53 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.49 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.069 0.170 0.082 0.021 -0.077 0.001 0.032 -0.128 -0.030 -0.074 PACF 0.069 0.166 0.062 -0.016 -0.105 0.003 0.065 -0.124 -0.036 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.166 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.171 0.171 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.041 0.061 0.179 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1841 1995 155 1.002 0.065 -0.918 6.156 0.066 0.069 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.069 0.170 0.082 0.021 -0.077 0.001 0.032 -0.128 -0.030 -0.074 PACF 0.069 0.166 0.062 -0.016 -0.105 0.003 0.065 -0.124 -0.036 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.166 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.171 0.171 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.041 0.061 0.179 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES