RUN: GREE001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GREE005L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GREE005L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 652 1 Olympos Oros WIDTH_LATE PILE - 652 2 Greece Bosnian pine, greybark pine, pino loricato 2250 4005-2225 158 652 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 652031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1766 1766 / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 652062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1879 1879 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 652101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1832 1832 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 652141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 652142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 0.358 0.306 1.692 5.096 0.262 0.874 2 652012 1771 1981 211 0.394 0.213 1.515 5.457 0.364 0.535 3 652021 1693 1981 289 0.274 0.168 1.267 4.735 0.274 0.790 4 652022 1647 1981 335 0.291 0.189 2.440 11.566 0.311 0.676 5 652031 1583 1981 399 0.213 0.164 2.517 13.211 0.310 0.772 6 652032 1595 1981 387 0.172 0.101 1.306 4.331 0.267 0.765 7 652041 1723 1981 259 0.264 0.075 1.489 8.461 0.266 0.225 8 652042 1678 1981 304 0.226 0.079 1.269 6.389 0.248 0.523 9 652051 1883 1981 99 0.693 0.239 1.186 5.720 0.260 0.543 10 652052 1859 1981 123 0.615 0.206 -0.033 2.580 0.328 0.337 11 652061 1687 1981 295 0.306 0.236 1.586 5.390 0.350 0.799 12 652062 1698 1981 284 0.438 0.387 3.113 16.632 0.333 0.844 13 652071 1760 1981 222 0.341 0.164 1.426 5.522 0.347 0.585 14 652072 1738 1981 244 0.335 0.200 1.719 6.632 0.312 0.728 15 652081 1802 1981 180 0.457 0.303 3.474 20.223 0.309 0.755 16 652082 1792 1981 190 0.539 0.396 1.647 5.227 0.296 0.767 17 652091 1854 1981 128 0.375 0.153 0.394 2.678 0.360 0.416 18 652092 1808 1981 174 0.321 0.119 0.832 3.362 0.301 0.443 19 652101 1807 1981 175 0.238 0.105 2.158 8.695 0.257 0.651 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 0.325 0.122 1.157 4.479 0.217 0.679 21 652111 1945 1981 37 0.622 0.293 1.249 4.513 0.364 0.454 22 652112 1942 1981 40 0.583 0.388 3.234 13.100 0.458 0.473 23 652121 1941 1981 41 0.665 0.222 0.858 4.335 0.264 0.412 24 652122 1937 1981 45 0.918 0.265 0.247 2.974 0.261 0.457 25 652131 1928 1981 54 0.801 0.421 1.052 3.286 0.468 0.364 26 652132 1928 1981 54 0.809 0.352 0.757 2.955 0.381 0.420 27 652141 1777 1981 205 0.504 0.270 1.373 5.111 0.299 0.699 28 652142 1765 1981 217 0.484 0.199 0.946 4.066 0.320 0.488 29 652151 1594 1981 388 0.196 0.112 2.037 8.637 0.272 0.723 30 652152 1609 1981 373 0.225 0.122 1.708 7.005 0.278 0.675 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1583 TO 1981 399 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 0.433 0.219 1.520 6.746 0.311 0.596 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.202 0.101 0.826 4.267 0.058 0.172 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 0.367 0.203 1.399 5.308 0.305 0.618 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.308 0.171 0.667 4.130 0.080 0.301 MINIMUM VALUE 36 0.172 0.075 -0.033 2.580 0.217 0.225 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 0.274 0.122 1.052 4.331 0.266 0.454 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 0.583 0.293 1.719 8.461 0.347 0.755 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 0.918 0.421 3.474 20.223 0.468 0.874 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.288 0.208 0.010 -0.375 2.990 -0.422 0.736 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.422 SERIES 652111 AND 652121 37 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.736 SERIES 652011 AND 652061 237 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 55. 91. 136. 210. 210. RBAR 0.344 0.422 0.194 0.264 0.220 0.183 0.305 0.407 0.302 0.296 SDEV 0.234 0.195 0.266 0.212 0.238 0.250 0.200 0.170 0.227 0.264 SERR 0.095 0.080 0.084 0.046 0.040 0.034 0.021 0.015 0.016 0.018 EPS 0.696 0.790 0.630 0.767 0.754 0.759 0.885 0.932 0.902 0.904 NSS 4.4 5.2 7.1 9.2 10.9 14.1 17.6 20.0 21.3 22.5 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.321 0.241 0.275 SDEV 0.220 0.209 0.184 SERR 0.014 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.918 0.886 0.912 NSS 23.6 24.5 27.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 0.304 0.093 0.900 3.708 0.231 0.486 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.598 0.580 -0.019 211 188 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.83 1.91 1.00 1.30 3.21 16.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.96 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 212. 166. 37. 123. 289. 399. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.484 0.341 0.266 0.219 0.162 0.098 0.118 0.020 0.009 -0.001 PACF 0.484 0.139 0.075 0.050 0.005 -0.030 0.060 -0.095 -0.004 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.100 0.121 0.131 0.136 0.139 0.141 0.142 0.143 0.143 0.143 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.258 0.422 0.139 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 652011 1 1.00047421 0.01574635 0.00000000 0.09875589 2 652012 1 0.52602375 0.01373790 0.00000000 0.22364788 3 652021 1 0.47378170 0.00874832 0.00000000 0.10265299 4 652022 1 0.42576495 0.00513666 0.00000000 0.08810755 5 652031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00086724 0.38573584 6 652032 1 0.33592141 0.00415920 0.00000000 0.00528934 7 652041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012745 0.24748586 8 652042 1 0.17429669 0.00749363 0.00000000 0.15770553 9 652051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00076129 0.73139763 10 652052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00154699 0.51863921 11 652061 1 0.66287392 0.00873448 0.00000000 0.06935630 12 652062 1 0.85590249 0.01115858 0.00000000 0.17914777 13 652071 1 0.36927444 0.01806921 0.00000000 0.25159985 14 652072 1 0.54746073 0.01290241 0.00000000 0.16998917 15 652081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00091579 0.37389880 16 652082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00494496 1.01161242 17 652091 1 0.26669952 0.03690692 0.00000000 0.32022986 18 652092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00104012 0.41238987 19 652101 1 0.47163510 0.08998365 0.00000000 0.20959570 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 652102 1 0.23474188 0.04206446 0.00000000 0.29914016 21 652111 1 0.90160030 0.09934898 0.00000000 0.39505249 22 652112 1 3.25671625 0.58380294 0.00000000 0.48005924 23 652121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00369512 0.58752441 24 652122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00625692 0.77431315 25 652131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00687364 0.98995107 26 652132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00124147 0.84321451 27 652141 1 0.78906363 0.03727055 0.00000000 0.40142438 28 652142 1 0.48991895 0.03904024 0.00000000 0.42568019 29 652151 1 0.25032032 0.00782824 0.00000000 0.11797036 30 652152 1 0.32854110 0.04820829 0.00000000 0.20744787 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 1.008 0.372 0.236 2.813 0.261 0.593 2 652012 1771 1981 211 1.000 0.385 0.890 4.626 0.362 0.278 3 652021 1693 1981 289 1.003 0.453 1.439 6.610 0.273 0.681 4 652022 1647 1981 335 1.002 0.475 1.553 7.154 0.310 0.598 5 652031 1583 1981 399 1.017 0.536 2.505 13.246 0.311 0.645 6 652032 1595 1981 387 1.002 0.341 0.640 3.591 0.267 0.495 7 652041 1723 1981 259 1.000 0.281 1.307 7.173 0.265 0.225 8 652042 1678 1981 304 1.000 0.289 0.933 4.698 0.247 0.282 9 652051 1883 1981 99 1.000 0.341 1.093 5.264 0.258 0.520 10 652052 1859 1981 123 0.999 0.329 0.137 2.782 0.325 0.312 11 652061 1687 1981 295 1.004 0.511 1.166 4.793 0.349 0.581 12 652062 1698 1981 284 1.000 0.607 2.438 12.059 0.334 0.720 13 652071 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.380 1.058 5.003 0.345 0.391 14 652072 1738 1981 244 1.001 0.386 0.906 3.977 0.312 0.471 15 652081 1802 1981 180 0.999 0.645 3.481 20.452 0.308 0.744 16 652082 1792 1981 190 1.126 0.814 3.786 22.774 0.295 0.627 17 652091 1854 1981 128 1.000 0.384 0.484 2.941 0.357 0.295 18 652092 1808 1981 174 1.000 0.318 0.500 2.962 0.299 0.248 19 652101 1807 1981 175 1.000 0.304 1.127 5.143 0.254 0.347 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 1.000 0.347 1.109 4.226 0.216 0.626 21 652111 1945 1981 37 1.000 0.324 0.840 2.951 0.351 -0.014 22 652112 1942 1981 40 1.001 0.390 1.114 4.711 0.426 0.178 23 652121 1941 1981 41 1.000 0.341 1.544 6.924 0.258 0.374 24 652122 1937 1981 45 1.001 0.279 0.459 4.326 0.255 0.357 25 652131 1928 1981 54 0.998 0.504 1.138 3.892 0.459 0.304 26 652132 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.436 0.786 3.047 0.374 0.408 27 652141 1777 1981 205 0.999 0.407 0.538 2.681 0.298 0.560 28 652142 1765 1981 217 0.999 0.350 0.381 3.268 0.322 0.336 29 652151 1594 1981 388 1.000 0.415 1.239 5.519 0.272 0.598 30 652152 1609 1981 373 1.000 0.479 1.254 5.608 0.277 0.639 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.005 0.414 1.203 6.174 0.308 0.447 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.023 0.119 0.853 4.870 0.054 0.185 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 1.000 0.384 1.101 4.705 0.303 0.439 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.002 0.133 0.667 3.342 0.080 0.294 MINIMUM VALUE 37 0.998 0.279 0.137 2.681 0.216 -0.014 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.341 0.640 3.268 0.265 0.304 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 1.001 0.475 1.307 6.610 0.345 0.598 MAXIMUM VALUE 399 1.126 0.814 3.786 22.774 0.459 0.744 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 652011 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 652012 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 652021 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 652022 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 652031 -67 267 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 652032 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 652041 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 652042 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 652051 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 652052 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 652061 -67 197 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 652062 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 652071 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 652072 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 652081 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 652082 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 652091 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 652092 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 652101 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 652102 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 652111 -67 24 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 652112 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 652121 -67 27 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 652122 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 652131 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 652132 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 652141 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 652142 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 652151 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 652152 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 0.993 0.350 0.414 3.448 0.261 0.520 2 652012 1771 1981 211 0.999 0.381 0.928 4.878 0.362 0.270 3 652021 1693 1981 289 0.993 0.410 1.166 5.479 0.273 0.623 4 652022 1647 1981 335 0.993 0.438 1.486 7.060 0.310 0.536 5 652031 1583 1981 399 0.992 0.460 2.349 13.217 0.311 0.568 6 652032 1595 1981 387 0.999 0.337 0.690 3.770 0.266 0.482 7 652041 1723 1981 259 0.999 0.258 0.948 5.177 0.265 0.134 8 652042 1678 1981 304 0.998 0.273 0.830 4.257 0.247 0.234 9 652051 1883 1981 99 0.995 0.295 0.946 4.306 0.257 0.356 10 652052 1859 1981 123 0.995 0.297 -0.028 2.808 0.324 0.159 11 652061 1687 1981 295 0.992 0.480 1.112 4.669 0.349 0.540 12 652062 1698 1981 284 0.996 0.592 2.408 11.947 0.334 0.710 13 652071 1760 1981 222 0.999 0.372 0.987 4.706 0.345 0.373 14 652072 1738 1981 244 0.998 0.373 1.004 4.292 0.311 0.432 15 652081 1802 1981 180 0.984 0.488 2.508 13.603 0.307 0.622 16 652082 1792 1981 190 0.994 0.401 1.064 4.759 0.295 0.460 17 652091 1854 1981 128 0.998 0.373 0.553 3.598 0.357 0.216 18 652092 1808 1981 174 0.998 0.309 0.433 2.915 0.299 0.206 19 652101 1807 1981 175 0.998 0.283 1.276 5.968 0.255 0.282 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 0.997 0.277 0.821 3.602 0.216 0.449 21 652111 1945 1981 37 0.996 0.281 0.446 2.907 0.349 -0.245 22 652112 1942 1981 40 0.996 0.336 0.461 2.770 0.426 -0.093 23 652121 1941 1981 41 0.991 0.289 1.567 7.445 0.256 0.205 24 652122 1937 1981 45 0.998 0.239 0.157 4.335 0.253 0.186 25 652131 1928 1981 54 0.991 0.446 0.823 3.338 0.455 0.162 26 652132 1928 1981 54 0.991 0.396 0.607 2.926 0.372 0.298 27 652141 1777 1981 205 0.997 0.388 0.593 2.838 0.298 0.535 28 652142 1765 1981 217 0.999 0.330 0.233 2.861 0.322 0.296 29 652151 1594 1981 388 0.999 0.409 1.179 5.275 0.272 0.590 30 652152 1609 1981 373 0.998 0.440 1.057 5.095 0.277 0.593 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 0.995 0.367 0.967 5.142 0.308 0.357 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.004 0.081 0.618 2.910 0.054 0.220 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 0.996 0.372 0.937 4.321 0.303 0.365 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.005 0.115 0.612 1.938 0.080 0.330 MINIMUM VALUE 37 0.984 0.239 -0.028 2.770 0.216 -0.245 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 0.993 0.295 0.553 3.338 0.265 0.206 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 0.998 0.410 1.166 5.275 0.345 0.536 MAXIMUM VALUE 399 0.999 0.592 2.508 13.603 0.455 0.710 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.251 0.155 0.007 -0.351 3.268 -0.235 0.735 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.235 SERIES 652031 AND 652121 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.735 SERIES 652121 AND 652122 41 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 55. 91. 136. 210. 210. RBAR 0.333 0.386 0.224 0.254 0.236 0.203 0.284 0.334 0.260 0.297 SDEV 0.258 0.200 0.247 0.224 0.230 0.239 0.194 0.199 0.224 0.246 SERR 0.105 0.082 0.078 0.049 0.038 0.032 0.020 0.017 0.015 0.017 EPS 0.685 0.764 0.671 0.757 0.771 0.781 0.874 0.910 0.882 0.905 NSS 4.4 5.2 7.1 9.2 10.9 14.1 17.6 20.0 21.3 22.5 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.330 0.252 0.291 SDEV 0.205 0.207 0.173 SERR 0.013 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.921 0.892 0.918 NSS 23.6 24.5 27.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 0.968 0.234 0.524 2.961 0.207 0.410 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.337 0.208 0.093 118 281 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.73 1.00 1.08 1.80 19.77 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.409 0.238 0.194 0.112 0.027 -0.100 -0.081 -0.173 -0.202 -0.204 PACF 0.409 0.085 0.085 -0.008 -0.051 -0.142 -0.006 -0.134 -0.074 -0.072 95% C.L. 0.100 0.116 0.120 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.128 0.131 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.181 0.369 0.055 0.081 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.317 0.237 0.234 0.154 0.098 -0.029 -0.057 -0.205 -0.200 -0.225 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.317 2 0.269 0.151 3 0.248 0.114 0.139 4 0.244 0.111 0.131 0.029 5 0.244 0.112 0.132 0.031 -0.007 6 0.243 0.116 0.148 0.045 0.023 -0.123 7 0.235 0.117 0.152 0.055 0.031 -0.105 -0.073 8 0.220 0.096 0.158 0.067 0.062 -0.082 -0.025 -0.202 9 0.202 0.094 0.151 0.072 0.068 -0.068 -0.017 -0.183 -0.089 10 0.193 0.077 0.149 0.066 0.074 -0.061 -0.002 -0.174 -0.070 -0.094 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3427.07 3386.75 3379.49 3373.74 3375.40 3377.38 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3373.29 3373.18 3358.53 3357.34 3355.82 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.248 0.114 0.139 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 13.82 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 116.03 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.248 0.176 0.211 0.107 0.075 0.060 0.038 0.027 0.019 0.0131 0.009 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 652011 3 0.316 0.393 0.132 0.146 2 652012 3 0.108 0.227 0.118 0.059 3 652021 3 0.421 0.508 0.101 0.108 4 652022 3 0.365 0.373 0.209 0.132 5 652031 3 0.331 0.524 0.090 -0.010 6 652032 3 0.245 0.436 0.038 0.096 7 652041 3 0.046 0.106 0.090 0.129 8 652042 3 0.079 0.201 0.103 0.086 9 652051 3 0.160 0.290 0.121 0.102 10 652052 3 0.043 0.166 -0.038 0.032 11 652061 3 0.312 0.452 0.140 0.035 12 652062 3 0.506 0.699 0.000 0.022 13 652071 3 0.166 0.303 0.136 0.074 14 652072 3 0.196 0.434 -0.050 0.107 15 652081 3 0.398 0.629 -0.069 0.096 16 652082 3 0.296 0.309 0.159 0.210 17 652091 3 0.120 0.139 0.145 0.209 18 652092 3 0.061 0.179 0.084 0.074 19 652101 3 0.136 0.207 0.119 0.181 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 652102 3 0.238 0.363 0.195 -0.005 21 652111 3 0.143 -0.285 -0.216 0.130 22 652112 3 0.086 -0.134 -0.237 -0.088 23 652121 3 0.129 0.237 -0.161 -0.019 24 652122 3 0.087 0.188 -0.013 -0.151 25 652131 3 0.162 0.143 -0.237 -0.242 26 652132 3 0.187 0.378 -0.271 -0.036 27 652141 3 0.302 0.461 0.130 0.013 28 652142 3 0.154 0.203 0.235 0.078 29 652151 3 0.368 0.542 0.107 -0.016 30 652152 3 0.375 0.497 0.135 0.037 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.218 0.306 0.043 0.053 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.127 0.209 0.142 0.099 MEDIAN 3 0.177 0.306 0.102 0.074 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.196 0.264 0.174 0.112 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.043 -0.285 -0.271 -0.242 LOWER HINGE 3 0.120 0.188 -0.038 -0.005 UPPER HINGE 3 0.316 0.452 0.135 0.108 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.506 0.699 0.235 0.210 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 1.000 0.289 0.788 4.743 0.296 -0.004 2 652012 1771 1981 211 1.000 0.363 0.840 4.941 0.402 -0.007 3 652021 1693 1981 289 1.000 0.315 0.649 4.561 0.340 0.013 4 652022 1647 1981 335 1.000 0.347 0.697 5.230 0.377 -0.010 5 652031 1583 1981 399 1.002 0.370 1.235 6.993 0.394 0.012 6 652032 1595 1981 387 1.000 0.293 0.700 4.411 0.318 -0.001 7 652041 1723 1981 259 1.000 0.252 0.855 5.105 0.278 0.003 8 652042 1678 1981 304 1.000 0.262 0.985 5.205 0.267 -0.009 9 652051 1883 1981 99 1.000 0.270 0.979 5.513 0.300 0.002 10 652052 1859 1981 123 1.000 0.293 -0.056 2.852 0.348 -0.004 11 652061 1687 1981 295 1.000 0.398 1.028 5.101 0.418 -0.001 12 652062 1698 1981 284 1.001 0.415 1.437 7.621 0.449 0.005 13 652071 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.340 0.632 4.458 0.398 -0.001 14 652072 1738 1981 244 1.000 0.335 0.836 4.277 0.366 0.001 15 652081 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.380 1.830 10.564 0.403 -0.008 16 652082 1792 1981 190 1.000 0.335 1.367 5.934 0.331 0.006 17 652091 1854 1981 128 1.000 0.350 0.590 3.546 0.378 0.004 18 652092 1808 1981 174 1.000 0.300 0.353 3.103 0.326 -0.005 19 652101 1807 1981 175 1.000 0.263 1.203 6.112 0.283 -0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 1.000 0.242 0.769 4.361 0.261 0.000 21 652111 1945 1981 37 1.000 0.260 0.432 2.917 0.288 0.014 22 652112 1942 1981 40 1.000 0.324 0.471 3.012 0.396 -0.012 23 652121 1941 1981 41 1.000 0.279 1.370 6.999 0.286 -0.003 24 652122 1937 1981 45 1.000 0.231 0.550 4.602 0.270 -0.025 25 652131 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.406 0.702 3.665 0.469 -0.012 26 652132 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.361 0.651 3.071 0.392 0.021 27 652141 1777 1981 205 1.000 0.324 0.563 3.159 0.355 -0.001 28 652142 1765 1981 217 1.000 0.303 0.244 2.950 0.346 -0.004 29 652151 1594 1981 388 1.000 0.325 1.171 6.305 0.339 -0.008 30 652152 1609 1981 373 1.000 0.350 1.285 6.579 0.346 0.004 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.000 0.319 0.839 4.930 0.347 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.000 0.050 0.401 1.722 0.056 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 1.000 0.324 0.779 4.673 0.346 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.000 0.071 0.580 2.388 0.098 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 37 1.000 0.231 -0.056 2.852 0.261 -0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.279 0.590 3.546 0.296 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 1.000 0.350 1.171 5.934 0.394 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 399 1.002 0.415 1.830 10.564 0.469 0.021 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.285 0.140 0.007 -0.419 3.562 -0.213 0.727 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.213 SERIES 652022 AND 652112 40 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.727 SERIES 652121 AND 652122 41 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 55. 91. 136. 210. 210. RBAR 0.342 0.271 0.132 0.240 0.305 0.256 0.357 0.396 0.329 0.333 SDEV 0.198 0.170 0.219 0.168 0.173 0.205 0.149 0.152 0.154 0.145 SERR 0.081 0.069 0.069 0.037 0.029 0.028 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.693 0.657 0.519 0.743 0.827 0.829 0.907 0.929 0.913 0.918 NSS 4.4 5.2 7.1 9.2 10.9 14.1 17.6 20.0 21.3 22.5 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.307 0.237 0.303 SDEV 0.149 0.155 0.156 SERR 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.913 0.884 0.922 NSS 23.6 24.5 27.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 0.981 0.204 0.560 3.852 0.237 -0.052 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.279 0.157 0.081 131 268 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.61 1.00 1.06 1.68 24.02 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.052 -0.064 0.001 0.028 0.032 -0.074 0.043 -0.093 -0.078 -0.052 PACF -0.052 -0.067 -0.006 0.024 0.034 -0.068 0.040 -0.099 -0.086 -0.073 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.002 0.003 0.021 0.031 -0.075 0.030 -0.105 -0.093 -0.069 PACF 0.000 0.002 0.003 0.021 0.031 -0.076 0.030 -0.107 -0.095 -0.069 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.103 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 0.981 0.218 0.547 3.310 0.203 0.311 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.311 0.227 0.213 0.115 0.058 -0.054 -0.032 -0.161 -0.179 -0.178 PACF 0.311 0.144 0.122 -0.001 -0.025 -0.117 -0.012 -0.150 -0.085 -0.069 95% C.L. 0.100 0.109 0.114 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.122 0.124 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.129 0.250 0.112 0.120 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES