RUN: GREE001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GREE005P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GREE005P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 652 1 Olympos Oros LATEWOOD_PERCENT PILE - 652 2 Greece Bosnian pine, greybark pine, pino loricato 2250 4005-2225 158 652 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 652031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1766 1766 / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 652062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1879 1879 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 652101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1832 1832 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 652141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 652142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 2.518 0.906 1.292 6.089 0.296 0.385 2 652012 1771 1981 211 2.533 0.819 0.637 5.106 0.346 0.087 3 652021 1693 1981 289 2.561 0.762 0.631 4.248 0.287 0.242 4 652022 1647 1981 335 2.885 1.001 0.741 4.129 0.332 0.238 5 652031 1583 1981 399 2.481 0.783 0.585 3.479 0.304 0.199 6 652032 1595 1981 387 2.267 0.798 1.553 9.209 0.305 0.271 7 652041 1723 1981 259 2.070 0.595 0.798 3.966 0.260 0.271 8 652042 1678 1981 304 2.010 0.481 0.741 5.457 0.244 0.068 9 652051 1883 1981 99 3.452 0.846 0.518 3.557 0.222 0.339 10 652052 1859 1981 123 3.094 0.819 0.083 2.930 0.282 0.186 11 652061 1687 1981 295 2.864 0.925 0.579 3.681 0.297 0.366 12 652062 1698 1981 284 3.372 1.078 0.771 4.675 0.277 0.451 13 652071 1760 1981 222 2.411 0.658 0.059 3.017 0.278 0.267 14 652072 1738 1981 244 2.290 0.623 0.668 3.744 0.276 0.196 15 652081 1802 1981 180 2.333 0.887 1.780 7.631 0.297 0.499 16 652082 1792 1981 190 2.750 0.866 1.128 4.649 0.245 0.423 17 652091 1854 1981 128 2.489 0.799 0.351 2.723 0.297 0.381 18 652092 1808 1981 174 2.459 0.590 -0.172 2.875 0.269 0.042 19 652101 1807 1981 175 2.718 0.644 0.791 3.338 0.219 0.252 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 2.933 0.623 0.692 3.591 0.193 0.299 21 652111 1945 1981 37 3.131 1.054 0.471 3.236 0.327 0.364 22 652112 1942 1981 40 2.777 1.568 2.940 12.237 0.375 0.470 23 652121 1941 1981 41 3.097 0.837 1.340 6.009 0.258 0.133 24 652122 1937 1981 45 4.103 1.017 0.028 2.776 0.222 0.463 25 652131 1928 1981 54 3.621 1.434 0.509 2.794 0.375 0.380 26 652132 1928 1981 54 4.271 1.477 0.279 2.536 0.314 0.354 27 652141 1777 1981 205 3.208 0.771 0.133 3.541 0.240 0.182 28 652142 1765 1981 217 3.719 0.925 -0.362 3.026 0.288 0.035 29 652151 1594 1981 388 2.316 0.686 0.873 4.632 0.261 0.323 30 652152 1609 1981 373 2.506 0.796 0.838 4.159 0.254 0.466 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1583 TO 1981 399 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 2.841 0.869 0.709 4.435 0.281 0.288 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.572 0.256 0.639 2.107 0.044 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 2.734 0.819 0.652 3.713 0.280 0.285 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.672 0.240 0.487 1.649 0.050 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 36 2.010 0.481 -0.362 2.536 0.193 0.035 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 2.459 0.686 0.351 3.026 0.254 0.196 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 3.131 0.925 0.838 4.675 0.304 0.381 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 4.271 1.568 2.940 12.237 0.375 0.499 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.252 0.154 0.007 -0.330 4.261 -0.375 0.754 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.375 SERIES 652111 AND 652152 37 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.754 SERIES 652111 AND 652112 37 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 55. 91. 136. 210. 210. RBAR 0.318 0.225 0.148 0.102 0.164 0.226 0.377 0.400 0.317 0.289 SDEV 0.249 0.221 0.206 0.184 0.144 0.175 0.149 0.154 0.170 0.186 SERR 0.102 0.090 0.065 0.040 0.024 0.024 0.016 0.013 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.670 0.599 0.551 0.509 0.681 0.804 0.914 0.930 0.908 0.901 NSS 4.4 5.2 7.1 9.2 10.9 14.1 17.6 20.0 21.3 22.5 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.245 0.256 0.271 SDEV 0.179 0.172 0.158 SERR 0.011 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.885 0.894 0.910 NSS 23.6 24.5 27.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 2.561 0.496 0.615 4.497 0.192 0.232 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.159 0.096 0.468 118 281 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.90 1.00 1.09 1.99 42.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 212. 166. 37. 123. 289. 399. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.231 0.256 0.223 0.157 0.217 0.125 0.134 0.083 0.104 0.116 PACF 0.231 0.214 0.141 0.048 0.124 0.010 0.028 -0.020 0.032 0.043 95% C.L. 0.100 0.105 0.111 0.116 0.118 0.122 0.123 0.125 0.125 0.126 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.126 0.151 0.196 0.147 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 652011 1 1.69476676 0.01752123 0.00000000 2.12000465 2 652012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00403210 2.96034122 3 652021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00131702 2.37006998 4 652022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00259611 2.44892836 5 652031 1 1.55909801 0.03862777 0.00000000 2.37940025 6 652032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00241192 1.79914165 7 652041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00400251 1.54948103 8 652042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022582 2.04453564 9 652051 1 1.61058140 0.03807595 0.00000000 3.04221272 10 652052 1 0.12048537 0.00507814 0.00000000 3.00493479 11 652061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023262 2.82987761 12 652062 1 3.33833361 0.14485854 0.00000000 3.29155779 13 652071 1 0.38984591 0.01334767 0.00000000 2.28661156 14 652072 1 0.60242945 0.01036094 0.00000000 2.07158613 15 652081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00224582 2.12969780 16 652082 1 1.88332438 0.00891937 0.00000000 1.84710753 17 652091 1 2.42594385 0.00870273 0.00000000 1.03243148 18 652092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00331932 2.74917603 19 652101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00152583 2.84951067 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 652102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00312354 2.59873915 21 652111 1 3.13652992 0.08639275 0.00000000 2.22978425 22 652112 1 12.43828106 0.56254882 0.00000000 2.36521482 23 652121 1 2.18694305 0.26850006 0.00000000 2.92340755 24 652122 1 2.80871081 0.15391108 0.00000000 3.72791362 25 652131 1 2.98460174 0.06067042 0.00000000 2.77086139 26 652132 1 4.18879986 0.01930343 0.00000000 1.69431615 27 652141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00106973 3.09115911 28 652142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00264327 3.43491006 29 652151 1 1.34810042 0.00292590 0.00000000 1.51130414 30 652152 1 1.74255598 0.04645466 0.00000000 2.40749168 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 1.000 0.300 0.696 5.354 0.295 0.183 2 652012 1771 1981 211 1.000 0.296 0.069 4.188 0.345 0.003 3 652021 1693 1981 289 1.000 0.296 0.706 4.751 0.286 0.212 4 652022 1647 1981 335 1.000 0.340 0.843 4.462 0.331 0.203 5 652031 1583 1981 399 1.000 0.302 0.493 3.676 0.303 0.123 6 652032 1595 1981 387 1.001 0.327 1.394 9.229 0.304 0.179 7 652041 1723 1981 259 1.000 0.241 0.537 4.180 0.259 0.033 8 652042 1678 1981 304 1.000 0.240 0.786 5.628 0.244 0.065 9 652051 1883 1981 99 1.000 0.216 0.254 3.222 0.220 0.129 10 652052 1859 1981 123 1.000 0.264 0.057 2.906 0.280 0.183 11 652061 1687 1981 295 1.000 0.322 0.565 3.641 0.296 0.364 12 652062 1698 1981 284 1.000 0.307 0.745 5.173 0.280 0.396 13 652071 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.268 -0.081 2.815 0.277 0.241 14 652072 1738 1981 244 1.000 0.263 0.591 3.801 0.275 0.141 15 652081 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.373 1.681 7.324 0.295 0.487 16 652082 1792 1981 190 1.000 0.262 0.835 5.083 0.244 0.188 17 652091 1854 1981 128 1.000 0.273 0.602 3.949 0.294 0.034 18 652092 1808 1981 174 1.000 0.230 -0.188 3.106 0.267 -0.047 19 652101 1807 1981 175 1.000 0.234 0.750 3.273 0.217 0.231 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 1.000 0.199 0.456 3.423 0.192 0.201 21 652111 1945 1981 37 1.000 0.251 0.480 3.615 0.318 -0.247 22 652112 1942 1981 40 1.001 0.348 0.723 3.385 0.350 0.259 23 652121 1941 1981 41 1.000 0.234 0.372 3.131 0.256 -0.054 24 652122 1937 1981 45 1.000 0.210 -0.201 2.569 0.218 0.266 25 652131 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.356 0.624 2.833 0.367 0.217 26 652132 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.316 0.957 4.723 0.309 0.141 27 652141 1777 1981 205 1.000 0.243 0.210 3.524 0.238 0.190 28 652142 1765 1981 217 1.000 0.247 -0.287 3.097 0.287 -0.002 29 652151 1594 1981 388 1.000 0.273 0.771 4.268 0.260 0.178 30 652152 1609 1981 373 1.000 0.303 0.882 4.332 0.253 0.405 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.000 0.278 0.544 4.155 0.279 0.163 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.000 0.046 0.441 1.403 0.041 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 1.000 0.270 0.596 3.738 0.280 0.183 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.000 0.066 0.517 1.501 0.050 0.166 MINIMUM VALUE 37 1.000 0.199 -0.287 2.569 0.192 -0.247 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.241 0.254 3.222 0.253 0.065 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 1.000 0.307 0.771 4.723 0.303 0.231 MAXIMUM VALUE 399 1.001 0.373 1.681 9.229 0.367 0.487 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 652011 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 652012 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 652021 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 652022 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 652031 -67 267 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 652032 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 652041 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 652042 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 652051 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 652052 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 652061 -67 197 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 652062 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 652071 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 652072 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 652081 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 652082 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 652091 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 652092 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 652101 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 652102 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 652111 -67 24 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 652112 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 652121 -67 27 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 652122 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 652131 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 652132 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 652141 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 652142 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 652151 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 652152 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 1.000 0.300 0.709 5.209 0.295 0.174 2 652012 1771 1981 211 1.000 0.296 0.113 4.221 0.345 -0.002 3 652021 1693 1981 289 0.999 0.289 0.681 4.501 0.286 0.174 4 652022 1647 1981 335 0.999 0.336 0.843 4.490 0.331 0.186 5 652031 1583 1981 399 0.999 0.294 0.442 3.704 0.303 0.086 6 652032 1595 1981 387 0.998 0.314 1.730 12.970 0.304 0.082 7 652041 1723 1981 259 0.999 0.228 0.435 3.850 0.259 -0.067 8 652042 1678 1981 304 0.999 0.236 0.696 5.061 0.244 0.040 9 652051 1883 1981 99 0.999 0.211 0.351 3.396 0.220 0.070 10 652052 1859 1981 123 0.999 0.258 0.053 3.181 0.280 0.139 11 652061 1687 1981 295 0.997 0.303 0.501 3.698 0.296 0.278 12 652062 1698 1981 284 0.999 0.295 0.517 4.471 0.280 0.344 13 652071 1760 1981 222 0.998 0.255 -0.203 2.923 0.277 0.177 14 652072 1738 1981 244 1.000 0.261 0.573 3.742 0.275 0.130 15 652081 1802 1981 180 0.996 0.320 1.043 5.469 0.295 0.332 16 652082 1792 1981 190 0.997 0.247 0.792 5.204 0.244 0.106 17 652091 1854 1981 128 0.999 0.265 0.487 3.635 0.294 -0.021 18 652092 1808 1981 174 1.000 0.225 -0.134 3.498 0.267 -0.124 19 652101 1807 1981 175 0.999 0.227 0.722 3.342 0.217 0.186 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 0.999 0.194 0.484 3.470 0.192 0.160 21 652111 1945 1981 37 0.999 0.234 0.008 3.243 0.317 -0.369 22 652112 1942 1981 40 0.997 0.294 0.308 2.354 0.351 -0.093 23 652121 1941 1981 41 0.999 0.228 0.390 3.347 0.256 -0.118 24 652122 1937 1981 45 0.999 0.189 -0.062 2.904 0.215 0.049 25 652131 1928 1981 54 0.994 0.327 0.538 2.744 0.368 0.090 26 652132 1928 1981 54 0.999 0.309 0.809 4.138 0.309 0.103 27 652141 1777 1981 205 0.999 0.235 0.237 3.829 0.238 0.138 28 652142 1765 1981 217 0.998 0.239 -0.280 3.271 0.287 -0.087 29 652151 1594 1981 388 1.000 0.272 0.777 4.293 0.260 0.173 30 652152 1609 1981 373 0.997 0.282 0.893 4.292 0.253 0.341 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 0.998 0.265 0.482 4.148 0.279 0.089 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.001 0.040 0.418 1.834 0.042 0.155 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 0.999 0.263 0.494 3.723 0.280 0.104 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.001 0.062 0.485 1.130 0.050 0.177 MINIMUM VALUE 37 0.994 0.189 -0.280 2.354 0.192 -0.369 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 0.998 0.234 0.237 3.342 0.253 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 0.999 0.296 0.722 4.471 0.303 0.174 MAXIMUM VALUE 399 1.000 0.336 1.730 12.970 0.368 0.344 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.269 0.133 0.006 -0.011 3.591 -0.168 0.754 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.168 SERIES 652061 AND 652122 45 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.754 SERIES 652121 AND 652122 41 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 55. 91. 136. 210. 210. RBAR 0.169 0.235 0.166 0.093 0.167 0.230 0.386 0.403 0.328 0.304 SDEV 0.279 0.213 0.201 0.185 0.151 0.171 0.142 0.151 0.161 0.181 SERR 0.114 0.087 0.063 0.040 0.025 0.023 0.015 0.013 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.470 0.613 0.585 0.485 0.685 0.807 0.917 0.931 0.912 0.908 NSS 4.4 5.2 7.1 9.2 10.9 14.1 17.6 20.0 21.3 22.5 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.259 0.267 0.278 SDEV 0.167 0.163 0.148 SERR 0.011 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.892 0.899 0.913 NSS 23.6 24.5 27.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 0.981 0.159 0.012 3.053 0.190 -0.044 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.177 0.100 0.105 100 299 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.71 1.00 1.11 1.82 28.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.044 0.049 -0.004 -0.042 0.048 -0.023 -0.012 -0.079 -0.013 0.025 PACF -0.044 0.047 0.000 -0.045 0.044 -0.015 -0.019 -0.081 -0.015 0.028 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.109 -0.039 -0.023 -0.059 0.092 0.000 -0.056 -0.095 -0.008 -0.035 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.109 2 -0.114 -0.051 3 -0.116 -0.055 -0.034 4 -0.118 -0.059 -0.042 -0.068 5 -0.113 -0.056 -0.037 -0.059 0.076 6 -0.114 -0.055 -0.037 -0.059 0.077 0.012 7 -0.114 -0.051 -0.040 -0.061 0.075 0.006 -0.052 8 -0.119 -0.050 -0.032 -0.067 0.070 0.001 -0.064 -0.108 9 -0.122 -0.052 -0.032 -0.065 0.068 0.000 -0.065 -0.112 -0.027 10 -0.124 -0.059 -0.036 -0.065 0.073 -0.004 -0.067 -0.115 -0.034 -0.060 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3173.27 3170.51 3171.47 3173.01 3173.14 3172.82 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3174.77 3175.70 3172.99 3174.70 3175.26 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.109 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.19 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.20 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.109 0.012 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 652011 1 0.042 0.175 2 652012 1 0.026 -0.002 3 652021 1 0.053 0.174 4 652022 1 0.102 0.188 5 652031 1 0.020 0.086 6 652032 1 0.015 0.082 7 652041 1 0.006 -0.067 8 652042 1 0.010 0.041 9 652051 1 0.009 0.071 10 652052 1 0.026 0.139 11 652061 1 0.095 0.279 12 652062 1 0.137 0.345 13 652071 1 0.049 0.177 14 652072 1 0.017 0.131 15 652081 1 0.113 0.333 16 652082 1 0.034 0.107 17 652091 1 0.001 -0.021 18 652092 1 0.018 -0.125 19 652101 1 0.040 0.187 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 652102 1 0.032 0.161 21 652111 1 0.257 -0.382 22 652112 1 0.065 -0.093 23 652121 1 0.108 -0.119 24 652122 1 0.006 0.049 25 652131 1 0.038 0.091 26 652132 1 0.069 0.104 27 652141 1 0.023 0.138 28 652142 1 0.011 -0.087 29 652151 1 0.038 0.173 30 652152 1 0.131 0.342 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.053 0.089 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.055 0.156 MEDIAN 1 0.036 0.106 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.052 0.178 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.001 -0.382 LOWER HINGE 1 0.017 -0.002 UPPER HINGE 1 0.069 0.175 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.257 0.345 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 1.000 0.295 0.780 5.558 0.318 -0.019 2 652012 1771 1981 211 1.000 0.296 0.113 4.225 0.344 0.000 3 652021 1693 1981 289 1.000 0.284 0.675 5.123 0.312 -0.026 4 652022 1647 1981 335 1.000 0.330 0.817 4.505 0.364 -0.050 5 652031 1583 1981 399 1.000 0.292 0.481 3.811 0.316 -0.010 6 652032 1595 1981 387 1.000 0.313 1.812 13.581 0.314 -0.007 7 652041 1723 1981 259 1.000 0.228 0.388 3.681 0.252 0.002 8 652042 1678 1981 304 1.000 0.235 0.740 5.197 0.248 -0.004 9 652051 1883 1981 99 1.000 0.210 0.341 3.485 0.230 -0.004 10 652052 1859 1981 123 1.000 0.256 0.138 3.351 0.298 -0.011 11 652061 1687 1981 295 1.000 0.291 0.536 3.795 0.340 -0.037 12 652062 1698 1981 284 1.000 0.277 0.315 3.704 0.323 -0.050 13 652071 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.251 -0.152 2.881 0.301 -0.024 14 652072 1738 1981 244 1.000 0.258 0.518 3.668 0.291 -0.002 15 652081 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.302 0.979 5.524 0.342 0.016 16 652082 1792 1981 190 1.000 0.246 0.796 5.291 0.260 -0.017 17 652091 1854 1981 128 1.000 0.265 0.474 3.601 0.291 0.000 18 652092 1808 1981 174 1.000 0.223 -0.103 3.521 0.252 -0.006 19 652101 1807 1981 175 1.000 0.223 0.648 3.301 0.239 -0.012 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 1.000 0.191 0.503 3.432 0.209 -0.012 21 652111 1945 1981 37 1.000 0.216 0.401 3.708 0.258 -0.137 22 652112 1942 1981 40 1.000 0.293 0.371 2.334 0.335 -0.022 23 652121 1941 1981 41 1.000 0.226 0.298 3.405 0.241 -0.036 24 652122 1937 1981 45 1.000 0.188 -0.068 2.852 0.222 -0.003 25 652131 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.325 0.627 2.961 0.379 0.014 26 652132 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.307 0.752 3.856 0.320 0.026 27 652141 1777 1981 205 1.000 0.233 0.311 3.702 0.253 -0.009 28 652142 1765 1981 217 1.000 0.238 -0.283 3.354 0.276 0.005 29 652151 1594 1981 388 1.000 0.268 0.727 4.173 0.283 -0.015 30 652152 1609 1981 373 1.000 0.265 0.771 4.135 0.295 -0.043 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.000 0.261 0.490 4.191 0.290 -0.016 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.000 0.039 0.403 1.946 0.044 0.029 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 1.000 0.262 0.492 3.703 0.293 -0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.000 0.065 0.429 0.820 0.068 0.022 MINIMUM VALUE 37 1.000 0.188 -0.283 2.334 0.209 -0.137 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.228 0.311 3.405 0.252 -0.024 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 1.000 0.293 0.740 4.225 0.320 -0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 399 1.000 0.330 1.812 13.581 0.379 0.026 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.279 0.134 0.006 -0.226 3.890 -0.182 0.768 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.182 SERIES 652061 AND 652122 45 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.768 SERIES 652121 AND 652122 41 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 55. 91. 136. 210. 210. RBAR 0.201 0.222 0.134 0.098 0.177 0.260 0.414 0.430 0.355 0.325 SDEV 0.268 0.222 0.212 0.172 0.143 0.163 0.133 0.144 0.151 0.167 SERR 0.109 0.091 0.067 0.038 0.024 0.022 0.014 0.012 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.523 0.596 0.523 0.498 0.700 0.832 0.925 0.938 0.922 0.915 NSS 4.4 5.2 7.1 9.2 10.9 14.1 17.6 20.0 21.3 22.5 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.271 0.273 0.284 SDEV 0.160 0.155 0.141 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.898 0.902 0.916 NSS 23.6 24.5 27.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 0.984 0.158 0.065 3.011 0.199 -0.163 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.206 0.112 0.088 112 287 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.46 1.01 1.08 1.54 17.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.163 0.050 -0.005 -0.039 0.063 -0.020 0.016 -0.072 -0.001 0.032 PACF -0.163 0.024 0.007 -0.041 0.052 0.001 0.009 -0.070 -0.021 0.032 95% C.L. 0.100 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.027 -0.163 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.025 -0.004 -0.031 0.057 -0.008 0.001 -0.073 -0.008 0.053 PACF 0.004 0.025 -0.004 -0.032 0.058 -0.007 -0.002 -0.073 -0.004 0.054 95% C.L. 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 0.984 0.157 0.039 3.044 0.193 -0.108 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.107 0.036 -0.003 -0.037 0.061 -0.015 0.011 -0.072 -0.004 0.040 PACF -0.107 0.025 0.003 -0.038 0.054 -0.001 0.005 -0.072 -0.016 0.039 95% C.L. 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 -0.108 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.39 MINUTES