RUN: GREE001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: GREE005X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: GREE005X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 652 1 Olympos Oros DENSITY_MAXIMUM PILE - 652 2 Greece Bosnian pine, greybark pine, pino loricato 2250 4005-2225 158 652 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 652031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1766 1766 / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 652062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1879 1879 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 652101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1832 1832 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 652141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 652142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 0.713 0.049 -0.380 3.275 0.065 0.279 2 652012 1771 1981 211 0.736 0.047 -0.795 3.603 0.058 0.326 3 652021 1693 1981 289 0.708 0.046 0.189 3.282 0.061 0.277 4 652022 1647 1981 335 0.713 0.051 -0.135 2.820 0.064 0.391 5 652031 1583 1981 399 0.700 0.051 -0.310 3.001 0.055 0.573 6 652032 1595 1981 387 0.687 0.047 -0.507 3.350 0.053 0.498 7 652041 1723 1981 259 0.703 0.033 -0.580 3.387 0.050 0.079 8 652042 1678 1981 304 0.696 0.036 -0.484 3.296 0.051 0.266 9 652051 1883 1981 99 0.747 0.040 -0.266 2.802 0.051 0.271 10 652052 1859 1981 123 0.712 0.039 -0.023 3.400 0.060 0.066 11 652061 1687 1981 295 0.728 0.056 -0.472 3.061 0.065 0.394 12 652062 1698 1981 284 0.745 0.047 -0.476 3.142 0.060 0.309 13 652071 1760 1981 222 0.714 0.042 -0.279 2.682 0.056 0.287 14 652072 1738 1981 244 0.722 0.040 -0.317 2.996 0.058 0.211 15 652081 1802 1981 180 0.706 0.047 -0.243 2.978 0.071 0.128 16 652082 1792 1981 190 0.722 0.053 -0.320 2.415 0.057 0.522 17 652091 1854 1981 128 0.726 0.050 -0.083 2.508 0.063 0.410 18 652092 1808 1981 174 0.729 0.051 -0.456 3.220 0.073 0.158 19 652101 1807 1981 175 0.707 0.040 -0.008 2.468 0.056 0.239 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 0.746 0.035 -0.147 2.661 0.046 0.204 21 652111 1945 1981 37 0.732 0.038 -0.200 3.604 0.065 -0.097 22 652112 1942 1981 40 0.725 0.046 -0.589 3.300 0.067 0.145 23 652121 1941 1981 41 0.732 0.043 0.058 2.199 0.077 -0.196 24 652122 1937 1981 45 0.752 0.037 -0.289 3.827 0.058 -0.082 25 652131 1928 1981 54 0.757 0.052 0.293 3.328 0.068 0.304 26 652132 1928 1981 54 0.790 0.037 0.024 2.956 0.056 0.036 27 652141 1777 1981 205 0.744 0.048 -0.317 2.553 0.061 0.349 28 652142 1765 1981 217 0.757 0.055 -0.121 2.656 0.064 0.399 29 652151 1594 1981 388 0.685 0.053 -0.548 3.412 0.056 0.586 30 652152 1609 1981 373 0.679 0.073 -0.359 3.080 0.059 0.768 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1583 TO 1981 399 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 0.724 0.046 -0.271 3.042 0.060 0.270 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.025 0.008 0.245 0.398 0.007 0.212 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 0.723 0.047 -0.300 3.071 0.059 0.278 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.037 0.011 0.351 0.645 0.009 0.249 MINIMUM VALUE 36 0.679 0.033 -0.795 2.199 0.046 -0.196 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 0.707 0.040 -0.472 2.682 0.056 0.145 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 0.744 0.051 -0.121 3.328 0.065 0.394 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 0.790 0.073 0.293 3.827 0.077 0.768 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.340 0.186 0.009 -0.187 2.844 -0.218 0.764 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.218 SERIES 652022 AND 652131 54 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.764 SERIES 652081 AND 652111 37 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 55. 91. 136. 210. 210. RBAR 0.318 0.402 0.381 0.401 0.421 0.389 0.454 0.490 0.400 0.327 SDEV 0.268 0.323 0.195 0.146 0.141 0.159 0.143 0.133 0.171 0.175 SERR 0.110 0.132 0.062 0.032 0.024 0.021 0.015 0.011 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.670 0.777 0.813 0.860 0.888 0.900 0.936 0.951 0.934 0.916 NSS 4.4 5.2 7.1 9.2 10.9 14.1 17.6 20.0 21.3 22.5 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.237 0.248 0.314 SDEV 0.204 0.188 0.197 SERR 0.013 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.880 0.890 0.926 NSS 23.6 24.5 27.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 0.717 0.030 -0.372 2.869 0.041 0.275 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.070 -0.038 0.070 85 314 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.34 1.00 1.07 1.41 5.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 212. 166. 37. 123. 289. 399. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.274 0.166 0.125 0.111 0.027 -0.014 -0.011 -0.030 -0.093 -0.052 PACF 0.274 0.099 0.062 0.055 -0.035 -0.040 -0.010 -0.025 -0.078 0.000 95% C.L. 0.100 0.107 0.110 0.111 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.089 0.249 0.099 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 652011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001896 0.71512514 2 652012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012136 0.74926203 3 652021 1 0.00828231 0.02187095 0.00000000 0.70631880 4 652022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00024238 0.67184716 5 652031 1 0.26184696 0.00131789 0.00000000 0.49647340 6 652032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011546 0.70947838 7 652041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006110 0.69464397 8 652042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012416 0.71508533 9 652051 1 0.15357082 0.00805688 0.00000000 0.64158237 10 652052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001322 0.71137547 11 652061 1 0.04282246 0.01640099 0.00000000 0.71935946 12 652062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009457 0.73105663 13 652071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017502 0.73338836 14 652072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001466 0.72033495 15 652081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011177 0.69599569 16 652082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00052793 0.77220720 17 652091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069968 0.77122295 18 652092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031717 0.75723541 19 652101 1 0.04189609 0.02987911 0.00000000 0.69897997 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 652102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009691 0.73540527 21 652111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014936 0.73445946 22 652112 1 0.10002851 0.21015771 0.00000000 0.71405983 23 652121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040592 0.72318292 24 652122 1 0.05075379 0.01440961 0.00000000 0.71492308 25 652131 1 0.13898018 0.11132840 0.00000000 0.73505044 26 652132 1 0.05857868 0.14616381 0.00000000 0.78273970 27 652141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00032112 0.71059006 28 652142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041590 0.71155298 29 652151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014455 0.71277994 30 652152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041468 0.75623107 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 1.000 0.069 -0.391 3.303 0.065 0.278 2 652012 1771 1981 211 1.000 0.063 -0.725 3.436 0.058 0.314 3 652021 1693 1981 289 1.000 0.065 0.175 3.227 0.061 0.276 4 652022 1647 1981 335 1.000 0.064 -0.115 2.940 0.063 0.211 5 652031 1583 1981 399 1.000 0.059 -0.463 3.343 0.055 0.322 6 652032 1595 1981 387 1.000 0.065 -0.575 3.728 0.053 0.452 7 652041 1723 1981 259 1.000 0.046 -0.666 3.620 0.050 0.061 8 652042 1678 1981 304 1.000 0.050 -0.585 3.389 0.051 0.191 9 652051 1883 1981 99 1.000 0.043 -0.272 2.636 0.051 -0.136 10 652052 1859 1981 123 1.000 0.054 -0.021 3.378 0.059 0.066 11 652061 1687 1981 295 1.000 0.075 -0.361 3.100 0.065 0.373 12 652062 1698 1981 284 1.000 0.063 -0.529 3.043 0.060 0.306 13 652071 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.057 -0.222 2.676 0.056 0.228 14 652072 1738 1981 244 1.000 0.056 -0.323 3.005 0.058 0.210 15 652081 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.066 -0.328 2.889 0.071 0.114 16 652082 1792 1981 190 1.000 0.061 -0.358 2.838 0.057 0.313 17 652091 1854 1981 128 1.000 0.060 -0.083 2.946 0.063 0.176 18 652092 1808 1981 174 1.000 0.066 -0.480 2.994 0.073 0.061 19 652101 1807 1981 175 1.000 0.054 -0.036 2.558 0.056 0.185 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 1.000 0.047 -0.193 2.542 0.046 0.179 21 652111 1945 1981 37 1.000 0.052 -0.221 3.706 0.063 -0.092 22 652112 1942 1981 40 1.000 0.058 -0.618 3.739 0.066 -0.007 23 652121 1941 1981 41 1.000 0.059 0.077 2.165 0.076 -0.210 24 652122 1937 1981 45 1.000 0.048 -0.177 3.982 0.057 -0.129 25 652131 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.056 -0.090 2.771 0.066 0.013 26 652132 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.045 0.151 3.140 0.055 -0.058 27 652141 1777 1981 205 1.000 0.061 -0.226 2.766 0.060 0.245 28 652142 1765 1981 217 1.000 0.064 -0.414 3.410 0.064 0.229 29 652151 1594 1981 388 1.000 0.073 -0.664 3.508 0.056 0.538 30 652152 1609 1981 373 1.000 0.086 -0.171 2.982 0.059 0.638 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.000 0.059 -0.297 3.125 0.060 0.178 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.000 0.010 0.246 0.421 0.007 0.198 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 1.000 0.059 -0.298 3.071 0.059 0.200 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.000 0.011 0.366 0.572 0.008 0.245 MINIMUM VALUE 37 1.000 0.043 -0.725 2.165 0.046 -0.210 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.054 -0.480 2.838 0.056 0.061 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 1.000 0.065 -0.115 3.410 0.064 0.306 MAXIMUM VALUE 399 1.000 0.086 0.175 3.982 0.076 0.638 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 652011 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 652012 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 652021 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 652022 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 652031 -67 267 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 652032 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 652041 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 652042 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 652051 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 652052 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 652061 -67 197 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 652062 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 652071 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 652072 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 652081 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 652082 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 652091 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 652092 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 652101 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 652102 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 652111 -67 24 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 652112 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 652121 -67 27 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 652122 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 652131 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 652132 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 652141 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 652142 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 652151 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 652152 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 1.000 0.063 -0.413 3.542 0.065 0.150 2 652012 1771 1981 211 1.000 0.061 -0.654 3.317 0.058 0.277 3 652021 1693 1981 289 1.000 0.065 0.207 3.276 0.061 0.257 4 652022 1647 1981 335 1.000 0.063 -0.133 3.042 0.063 0.188 5 652031 1583 1981 399 1.000 0.058 -0.487 3.357 0.055 0.306 6 652032 1595 1981 387 1.000 0.061 -0.654 3.989 0.053 0.377 7 652041 1723 1981 259 1.000 0.046 -0.696 3.621 0.050 0.038 8 652042 1678 1981 304 1.000 0.050 -0.596 3.417 0.051 0.175 9 652051 1883 1981 99 1.000 0.042 -0.248 2.578 0.051 -0.167 10 652052 1859 1981 123 1.000 0.052 -0.142 3.253 0.059 -0.006 11 652061 1687 1981 295 1.000 0.073 -0.377 3.196 0.065 0.328 12 652062 1698 1981 284 1.000 0.060 -0.524 3.137 0.060 0.223 13 652071 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.055 -0.329 2.731 0.056 0.161 14 652072 1738 1981 244 1.000 0.053 -0.210 2.867 0.058 0.125 15 652081 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.065 -0.304 2.823 0.071 0.088 16 652082 1792 1981 190 1.000 0.059 -0.466 2.985 0.057 0.258 17 652091 1854 1981 128 1.000 0.058 -0.054 2.898 0.063 0.134 18 652092 1808 1981 174 1.000 0.065 -0.510 3.012 0.072 0.037 19 652101 1807 1981 175 1.000 0.051 -0.001 2.436 0.056 0.052 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 1.000 0.046 -0.159 2.543 0.046 0.163 21 652111 1945 1981 37 1.000 0.051 -0.167 3.787 0.063 -0.140 22 652112 1942 1981 40 1.000 0.057 -0.823 3.986 0.066 -0.061 23 652121 1941 1981 41 1.000 0.055 -0.087 2.504 0.076 -0.367 24 652122 1937 1981 45 1.000 0.046 -0.218 4.044 0.056 -0.223 25 652131 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.055 -0.074 2.850 0.066 -0.016 26 652132 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.044 0.273 3.154 0.055 -0.123 27 652141 1777 1981 205 1.000 0.056 -0.257 3.053 0.060 0.128 28 652142 1765 1981 217 1.000 0.060 -0.524 3.647 0.064 0.128 29 652151 1594 1981 388 1.000 0.071 -0.666 3.621 0.056 0.510 30 652152 1609 1981 373 1.000 0.074 -0.209 3.001 0.059 0.508 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.000 0.057 -0.317 3.189 0.060 0.117 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.000 0.008 0.267 0.447 0.007 0.202 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 1.000 0.057 -0.281 3.146 0.059 0.131 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.000 0.012 0.381 0.675 0.008 0.263 MINIMUM VALUE 37 1.000 0.042 -0.823 2.436 0.046 -0.367 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.051 -0.524 2.867 0.056 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 1.000 0.063 -0.142 3.542 0.064 0.257 MAXIMUM VALUE 399 1.000 0.074 0.273 4.044 0.076 0.510 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.383 0.153 0.007 0.033 3.224 -0.113 0.800 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.113 SERIES 652022 AND 652132 54 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.800 SERIES 652131 AND 652132 54 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 55. 91. 136. 210. 210. RBAR 0.329 0.400 0.390 0.400 0.415 0.400 0.463 0.494 0.401 0.331 SDEV 0.295 0.317 0.188 0.146 0.140 0.156 0.139 0.129 0.170 0.168 SERR 0.121 0.129 0.059 0.032 0.023 0.021 0.015 0.011 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.681 0.775 0.819 0.859 0.885 0.904 0.938 0.951 0.935 0.918 NSS 4.4 5.2 7.1 9.2 10.9 14.1 17.6 20.0 21.3 22.5 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.254 0.261 0.318 SDEV 0.176 0.169 0.180 SERR 0.011 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.889 0.897 0.927 NSS 23.6 24.5 27.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 1.001 0.040 -0.485 2.940 0.042 0.177 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.093 -0.041 0.085 105 294 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.33 1.00 1.08 1.41 271.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.177 0.053 0.037 0.040 -0.022 -0.052 -0.038 -0.023 -0.074 -0.055 PACF 0.177 0.022 0.024 0.030 -0.037 -0.047 -0.022 -0.010 -0.064 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.100 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.105 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 0.177 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.005 0.003 -0.030 0.030 -0.023 -0.009 -0.036 0.004 -0.114 -0.082 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.005 2 0.005 0.003 3 0.006 0.003 -0.030 4 0.006 0.003 -0.030 0.030 5 0.007 0.002 -0.030 0.030 -0.024 6 0.007 0.002 -0.031 0.030 -0.024 -0.010 7 0.007 0.002 -0.030 0.029 -0.024 -0.010 -0.034 8 0.007 0.002 -0.030 0.029 -0.023 -0.010 -0.034 0.002 9 0.007 -0.002 -0.031 0.027 -0.020 -0.013 -0.034 0.003 -0.114 10 -0.003 -0.002 -0.033 0.026 -0.022 -0.011 -0.037 0.003 -0.113 -0.083 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2054.41 2056.40 2058.39 2060.03 2061.66 2063.44 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2065.40 2066.93 2068.93 2065.73 2064.94 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 652011 0 0.023 2 652012 0 0.079 3 652021 0 0.066 4 652022 0 0.036 5 652031 0 0.094 6 652032 0 0.144 7 652041 0 0.002 8 652042 0 0.031 9 652051 0 0.028 10 652052 0 0.000 11 652061 0 0.108 12 652062 0 0.050 13 652071 0 0.026 14 652072 0 0.016 15 652081 0 0.008 16 652082 0 0.067 17 652091 0 0.018 18 652092 0 0.001 19 652101 0 0.003 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 652102 0 0.027 21 652111 0 0.020 22 652112 0 0.004 23 652121 0 0.136 24 652122 0 0.050 25 652131 0 0.000 26 652132 0 0.015 27 652141 0 0.017 28 652142 0 0.017 29 652151 0 0.260 30 652152 0 0.262 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.054 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.069 MEDIAN 0 0.026 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.052 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.015 UPPER HINGE 0 0.067 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.262 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 652011 1745 1981 237 1.000 0.063 -0.413 3.542 0.065 0.150 2 652012 1771 1981 211 1.000 0.061 -0.654 3.317 0.058 0.277 3 652021 1693 1981 289 1.000 0.065 0.207 3.276 0.061 0.257 4 652022 1647 1981 335 1.000 0.063 -0.133 3.042 0.063 0.188 5 652031 1583 1981 399 1.000 0.058 -0.487 3.357 0.055 0.306 6 652032 1595 1981 387 1.000 0.061 -0.654 3.989 0.053 0.377 7 652041 1723 1981 259 1.000 0.046 -0.696 3.621 0.050 0.038 8 652042 1678 1981 304 1.000 0.050 -0.596 3.417 0.051 0.175 9 652051 1883 1981 99 1.000 0.042 -0.248 2.578 0.051 -0.167 10 652052 1859 1981 123 1.000 0.052 -0.142 3.253 0.059 -0.006 11 652061 1687 1981 295 1.000 0.073 -0.377 3.196 0.065 0.328 12 652062 1698 1981 284 1.000 0.060 -0.524 3.137 0.060 0.223 13 652071 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.055 -0.329 2.731 0.056 0.161 14 652072 1738 1981 244 1.000 0.053 -0.210 2.867 0.058 0.125 15 652081 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.065 -0.304 2.823 0.071 0.088 16 652082 1792 1981 190 1.000 0.059 -0.466 2.985 0.057 0.258 17 652091 1854 1981 128 1.000 0.058 -0.054 2.898 0.063 0.134 18 652092 1808 1981 174 1.000 0.065 -0.510 3.012 0.072 0.037 19 652101 1807 1981 175 1.000 0.051 -0.001 2.436 0.056 0.052 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 652102 1769 1981 213 1.000 0.046 -0.159 2.543 0.046 0.163 21 652111 1945 1981 37 1.000 0.051 -0.167 3.787 0.063 -0.140 22 652112 1942 1981 40 1.000 0.057 -0.823 3.986 0.066 -0.061 23 652121 1941 1981 41 1.000 0.055 -0.087 2.504 0.076 -0.367 24 652122 1937 1981 45 1.000 0.046 -0.218 4.044 0.056 -0.223 25 652131 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.055 -0.074 2.850 0.066 -0.016 26 652132 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.044 0.273 3.154 0.055 -0.123 27 652141 1777 1981 205 1.000 0.056 -0.257 3.053 0.060 0.128 28 652142 1765 1981 217 1.000 0.060 -0.524 3.647 0.064 0.128 29 652151 1594 1981 388 1.000 0.071 -0.666 3.621 0.056 0.510 30 652152 1609 1981 373 1.000 0.074 -0.209 3.001 0.059 0.508 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 1.000 0.057 -0.317 3.189 0.060 0.117 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.000 0.008 0.267 0.447 0.007 0.202 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 1.000 0.057 -0.281 3.146 0.059 0.131 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 166 0.000 0.012 0.381 0.675 0.008 0.263 MINIMUM VALUE 37 1.000 0.042 -0.823 2.436 0.046 -0.367 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.051 -0.524 2.867 0.056 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 289 1.000 0.063 -0.142 3.542 0.064 0.257 MAXIMUM VALUE 399 1.000 0.074 0.273 4.044 0.076 0.510 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.383 0.153 0.007 0.033 3.224 -0.113 0.800 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.113 SERIES 652022 AND 652132 54 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.800 SERIES 652131 AND 652132 54 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. CORR 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 55. 91. 136. 210. 210. RBAR 0.329 0.400 0.390 0.400 0.415 0.400 0.463 0.494 0.401 0.331 SDEV 0.295 0.317 0.188 0.146 0.140 0.156 0.139 0.129 0.170 0.168 SERR 0.121 0.129 0.059 0.032 0.023 0.021 0.015 0.011 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.681 0.775 0.819 0.859 0.885 0.904 0.938 0.951 0.935 0.918 NSS 4.4 5.2 7.1 9.2 10.9 14.1 17.6 20.0 21.3 22.5 YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.254 0.261 0.318 SDEV 0.176 0.169 0.180 SERR 0.011 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.889 0.897 0.927 NSS 23.6 24.5 27.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 1.001 0.040 -0.485 2.941 0.042 0.177 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.093 -0.042 0.086 104 295 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.34 1.00 1.08 1.42 269.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.177 0.053 0.037 0.040 -0.022 -0.052 -0.038 -0.023 -0.074 -0.054 PACF 0.177 0.022 0.024 0.030 -0.037 -0.047 -0.022 -0.009 -0.064 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.100 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.105 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 0.177 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1583 1981 399 1.001 0.040 -0.485 2.941 0.042 0.177 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.177 0.053 0.037 0.040 -0.022 -0.052 -0.038 -0.023 -0.074 -0.054 PACF 0.177 0.022 0.024 0.030 -0.037 -0.047 -0.022 -0.009 -0.064 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.100 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.105 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 0.177 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES