RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ID008E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ID008E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 723 1 Galena Pass, Sawtooth NF WIDTH_EARLY PCEN - 723 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2580 4352-11443 1530 1983 723 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 9 723061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1703 1703 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 723062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1801 1803 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 723111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1710 1712 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 0.515 0.487 1.393 3.949 0.235 0.940 2 723012 1530 1983 454 0.516 0.378 1.521 4.513 0.202 0.940 3 723031 1690 1983 294 0.516 0.173 0.408 2.925 0.217 0.694 4 723032 1677 1983 307 0.665 0.182 0.260 3.134 0.201 0.609 5 723041 1706 1983 278 0.608 0.182 0.172 2.641 0.201 0.691 6 723042 1688 1983 296 0.708 0.221 0.065 2.636 0.182 0.754 7 723051 1621 1983 363 0.522 0.263 0.831 3.083 0.239 0.815 8 723052 1611 1983 373 0.585 0.274 0.760 3.193 0.222 0.818 9 723061 1681 1983 303 0.621 0.230 0.597 3.069 0.194 0.782 10 723062 1681 1983 303 0.651 0.252 0.647 3.152 0.198 0.790 11 723071 1630 1983 354 0.624 0.243 0.819 3.928 0.186 0.835 12 723072 1654 1983 330 0.693 0.235 0.566 3.072 0.175 0.793 13 723081 1677 1983 307 0.456 0.166 1.382 5.141 0.161 0.838 14 723082 1710 1983 274 0.596 0.285 0.683 2.752 0.180 0.879 15 723091 1655 1983 329 0.645 0.319 0.167 2.282 0.206 0.871 16 723092 1627 1983 357 0.593 0.243 -0.134 2.054 0.213 0.805 17 723101 1661 1983 323 0.623 0.270 0.340 2.097 0.193 0.871 18 723102 1662 1983 322 0.724 0.282 0.556 2.781 0.180 0.844 19 723111 1666 1983 318 0.891 0.397 1.314 4.427 0.157 0.901 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 0.934 0.357 0.820 3.131 0.156 0.880 21 723121 1600 1983 384 0.736 0.404 1.065 4.061 0.259 0.837 22 723122 1601 1983 383 0.731 0.425 1.368 4.686 0.258 0.840 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1530 TO 1983 454 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 0.643 0.285 0.709 3.305 0.201 0.819 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.117 0.089 0.475 0.854 0.029 0.080 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 0.624 0.267 0.665 3.107 0.199 0.836 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 61 0.123 0.127 0.725 1.197 0.037 0.081 MINIMUM VALUE 274 0.456 0.166 -0.134 2.054 0.156 0.609 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 302 0.585 0.230 0.340 2.752 0.180 0.790 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 0.708 0.357 1.065 3.949 0.217 0.871 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 0.934 0.487 1.521 5.141 0.259 0.940 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.554 0.226 0.015 -0.781 2.672 -0.049 0.905 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.049 SERIES 723081 AND 723121 307 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.905 SERIES 723011 AND 723012 452 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.754 0.918 0.674 0.506 0.216 0.526 0.565 0.588 0.499 0.593 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.159 0.215 0.386 0.246 0.158 0.171 0.173 0.163 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.050 0.041 0.044 0.018 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.891 0.982 0.944 0.929 0.834 0.959 0.966 0.969 0.956 0.970 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.610 0.497 0.533 0.493 0.505 SDEV 0.164 0.206 0.163 0.205 0.210 SERR 0.011 0.014 0.011 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.972 0.956 0.962 0.955 0.957 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.762 0.344 1.039 3.484 0.166 0.882 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.408 0.123 0.140 104 350 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.42 1.00 1.05 1.47 64.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 326. 60. 274. 303. 363. 454. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.880 0.838 0.843 0.810 0.782 0.772 0.752 0.737 0.740 0.729 PACF 0.880 0.280 0.316 0.027 0.027 0.056 0.013 0.046 0.103 0.036 95% C.L. 0.094 0.150 0.187 0.218 0.243 0.264 0.283 0.300 0.316 0.331 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.818 0.538 0.084 0.321 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 723011 1 1.73896766 0.00737878 0.00000000 0.01390248 2 723012 1 1.31212854 0.00904116 0.00000000 0.20269641 3 723031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00133687 0.71365070 4 723032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00086272 0.79807115 5 723041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031154 0.56452560 6 723042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000245 0.70757467 7 723051 1 0.77604449 0.00420541 0.00000000 0.12513483 8 723052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00174180 0.91038227 9 723061 1 0.52752090 0.00715089 0.00000000 0.40558651 10 723062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00158672 0.89348215 11 723071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040968 0.69703943 12 723072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00106921 0.87004530 13 723081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039749 0.39504054 14 723082 1 0.93649071 0.00472004 0.00000000 0.07234916 15 723091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00290439 1.12433136 16 723092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00183600 0.92141724 17 723101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00215125 0.97190815 18 723102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00187088 1.02627730 19 723111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00249132 1.28994524 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 723112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00224419 1.30538356 21 723121 1 1.27545655 0.00635918 0.00000000 0.26057804 22 723122 1 1.25630605 0.00626642 0.00000000 0.25670147 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.040 0.417 1.362 5.426 0.235 0.723 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.003 0.328 0.370 2.859 0.202 0.682 3 723031 1690 1983 294 0.999 0.246 -0.002 3.301 0.216 0.435 4 723032 1677 1983 307 0.999 0.242 -0.059 2.953 0.200 0.508 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.299 0.214 2.673 0.201 0.684 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.313 0.065 2.636 0.182 0.751 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.001 0.383 0.556 2.974 0.239 0.701 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.005 0.352 0.901 4.098 0.221 0.677 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.303 0.176 2.675 0.193 0.700 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.002 0.317 0.224 2.488 0.197 0.717 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.380 0.796 3.940 0.185 0.828 12 723072 1654 1983 330 0.999 0.308 0.686 3.219 0.174 0.747 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.350 1.190 4.229 0.161 0.825 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.003 0.387 1.805 10.539 0.179 0.794 15 723091 1655 1983 329 0.993 0.262 0.103 2.960 0.205 0.523 16 723092 1627 1983 357 0.985 0.264 0.100 2.742 0.212 0.545 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.011 0.335 0.618 3.635 0.192 0.768 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.002 0.305 0.181 2.601 0.180 0.748 19 723111 1666 1983 318 0.994 0.310 0.956 3.864 0.156 0.803 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 0.997 0.273 0.317 3.182 0.156 0.756 21 723121 1600 1983 384 0.999 0.327 0.271 3.623 0.258 0.555 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.001 0.344 0.392 3.103 0.257 0.612 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.001 0.320 0.510 3.624 0.200 0.686 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.010 0.047 0.487 1.695 0.029 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.315 0.343 3.143 0.199 0.709 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.003 0.052 0.621 1.122 0.037 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 274 0.985 0.242 -0.059 2.488 0.156 0.435 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 0.999 0.299 0.176 2.742 0.180 0.612 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.002 0.350 0.796 3.864 0.216 0.756 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.040 0.417 1.805 10.539 0.258 0.828 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 723011 -67 302 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 723012 -67 304 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 723031 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 723032 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 723041 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 723042 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 723051 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 723052 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 723061 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 723062 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 723071 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 723072 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 723081 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 723082 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 723091 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 723092 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 723101 -67 216 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 723102 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 723111 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 723112 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 723121 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 723122 -67 256 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 0.993 0.299 0.299 3.073 0.235 0.533 2 723012 1530 1983 454 0.994 0.282 -0.015 2.553 0.202 0.604 3 723031 1690 1983 294 0.998 0.235 -0.121 3.306 0.216 0.377 4 723032 1677 1983 307 0.999 0.234 -0.040 2.976 0.200 0.480 5 723041 1706 1983 278 0.993 0.252 0.160 3.019 0.200 0.563 6 723042 1688 1983 296 0.994 0.229 -0.187 3.117 0.181 0.526 7 723051 1621 1983 363 0.991 0.348 0.603 3.300 0.239 0.629 8 723052 1611 1983 373 0.995 0.322 0.893 4.396 0.221 0.611 9 723061 1681 1983 303 0.994 0.265 0.098 2.671 0.193 0.598 10 723062 1681 1983 303 0.992 0.270 0.262 3.298 0.197 0.596 11 723071 1630 1983 354 0.984 0.293 0.499 3.617 0.185 0.708 12 723072 1654 1983 330 0.994 0.265 0.730 4.104 0.174 0.666 13 723081 1677 1983 307 0.991 0.293 0.946 3.934 0.161 0.753 14 723082 1710 1983 274 0.990 0.324 1.649 10.453 0.179 0.727 15 723091 1655 1983 329 0.998 0.254 0.173 3.121 0.205 0.488 16 723092 1627 1983 357 0.998 0.224 0.225 3.064 0.212 0.345 17 723101 1661 1983 323 0.991 0.253 0.037 3.241 0.192 0.605 18 723102 1662 1983 322 0.989 0.235 0.028 2.886 0.180 0.584 19 723111 1666 1983 318 0.991 0.239 0.677 3.382 0.155 0.688 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 0.992 0.216 0.083 2.811 0.156 0.619 21 723121 1600 1983 384 0.998 0.313 0.134 3.307 0.258 0.529 22 723122 1601 1983 383 0.998 0.336 0.341 2.934 0.257 0.592 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 0.994 0.272 0.340 3.571 0.200 0.583 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.004 0.039 0.433 1.600 0.029 0.102 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 0.993 0.265 0.199 3.181 0.199 0.597 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.006 0.064 0.566 0.405 0.037 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 274 0.984 0.216 -0.187 2.553 0.155 0.345 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 0.991 0.235 0.037 2.976 0.180 0.529 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 0.998 0.299 0.603 3.382 0.216 0.629 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 0.999 0.348 1.649 10.453 0.258 0.753 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.501 0.101 0.007 0.199 3.174 0.212 0.784 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.212 SERIES 723111 AND 723121 318 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.784 SERIES 723031 AND 723032 294 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.691 0.895 0.675 0.514 0.290 0.569 0.582 0.566 0.528 0.532 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.141 0.194 0.275 0.188 0.134 0.126 0.147 0.159 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.044 0.037 0.031 0.014 0.009 0.008 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.856 0.977 0.944 0.931 0.881 0.966 0.968 0.966 0.961 0.962 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.563 0.534 0.529 0.524 0.543 SDEV 0.161 0.197 0.159 0.176 0.167 SERR 0.011 0.013 0.010 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.966 0.962 0.961 0.960 0.963 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.996 0.209 -0.038 2.830 0.164 0.526 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.176 0.066 0.117 102 352 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.56 1.00 1.08 1.64 4.44 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.525 0.382 0.377 0.343 0.297 0.261 0.192 0.196 0.199 0.142 PACF 0.525 0.148 0.182 0.093 0.048 0.027 -0.043 0.042 0.038 -0.032 95% C.L. 0.094 0.117 0.127 0.137 0.144 0.150 0.154 0.156 0.158 0.160 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.329 0.401 0.064 0.146 0.097 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.505 0.379 0.354 0.347 0.297 0.238 0.171 0.201 0.171 0.053 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.505 2 0.421 0.167 3 0.396 0.102 0.152 4 0.376 0.089 0.101 0.129 5 0.370 0.085 0.098 0.112 0.044 6 0.370 0.085 0.098 0.112 0.045 -0.001 7 0.370 0.087 0.103 0.117 0.049 0.016 -0.047 8 0.373 0.086 0.100 0.109 0.042 0.010 -0.072 0.067 9 0.373 0.086 0.100 0.109 0.042 0.010 -0.072 0.067 0.000 10 0.374 0.094 0.091 0.110 0.047 0.024 -0.059 0.077 0.047 -0.126 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3945.61 3813.81 3803.04 3794.37 3788.76 3789.87 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3791.87 3792.86 3792.83 3794.83 3789.60 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.376 0.089 0.101 0.129 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 30.45 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 143.78 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.376 0.231 0.222 0.271 0.194 0.149 0.129 0.117 0.095 0.0786 0.067 0.057 0.048 0.040 0.034 0.028 0.024 0.020 0.017 0.0142 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.0025 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 723011 4 0.345 0.379 0.103 0.115 0.128 2 723012 4 0.423 0.427 0.115 0.116 0.112 3 723031 4 0.191 0.277 0.124 0.118 0.071 4 723032 4 0.263 0.388 0.121 0.116 -0.018 5 723041 4 0.342 0.511 -0.005 0.053 0.123 6 723042 4 0.303 0.480 -0.006 0.044 0.139 7 723051 4 0.455 0.434 0.099 0.187 0.067 8 723052 4 0.405 0.483 0.103 0.050 0.104 9 723061 4 0.399 0.471 0.054 0.095 0.128 10 723062 4 0.385 0.488 0.062 0.077 0.096 11 723071 4 0.569 0.459 0.112 0.228 0.047 12 723072 4 0.484 0.536 0.052 0.177 0.009 13 723081 4 0.596 0.604 0.056 0.116 0.061 14 723082 4 0.549 0.684 -0.050 0.065 0.100 15 723091 4 0.277 0.434 0.019 0.000 0.194 16 723092 4 0.173 0.261 0.080 0.093 0.149 17 723101 4 0.399 0.488 0.106 0.021 0.114 18 723102 4 0.394 0.409 0.166 0.106 0.061 19 723111 4 0.516 0.505 0.168 0.007 0.126 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 723112 4 0.422 0.471 0.157 0.071 0.039 21 723121 4 0.304 0.431 0.126 0.025 0.073 22 723122 4 0.375 0.487 0.116 0.029 0.069 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.389 0.459 0.085 0.087 0.091 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.113 0.091 0.057 0.059 0.049 MEDIAN 4 0.396 0.471 0.103 0.085 0.098 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.150 0.061 0.066 0.072 0.064 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.173 0.261 -0.050 0.000 -0.018 LOWER HINGE 4 0.304 0.427 0.054 0.044 0.061 UPPER HINGE 4 0.455 0.488 0.121 0.116 0.126 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.596 0.684 0.168 0.228 0.194 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.000 0.243 0.137 4.305 0.268 -0.011 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.214 0.078 3.862 0.236 -0.011 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.211 -0.400 3.909 0.242 -0.005 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.201 -0.077 3.043 0.231 0.002 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.204 -0.171 3.321 0.239 -0.005 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.191 -0.590 4.235 0.218 -0.004 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.258 0.270 3.668 0.275 -0.002 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.248 0.526 5.325 0.257 0.002 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.206 -0.201 3.344 0.226 -0.002 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.211 0.081 4.422 0.236 -0.008 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.192 -0.064 4.006 0.210 -0.008 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.191 -0.444 4.174 0.212 -0.002 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.186 0.313 4.076 0.202 0.007 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.218 0.891 8.602 0.231 0.007 15 723091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.216 0.228 3.442 0.240 -0.006 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.204 0.015 2.755 0.236 -0.010 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.197 -0.292 3.607 0.227 -0.008 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.183 -0.446 3.885 0.206 0.001 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.167 0.093 3.187 0.187 -0.009 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.165 -0.274 3.468 0.183 -0.004 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.260 -0.236 4.285 0.303 0.001 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.265 -0.019 3.624 0.305 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.210 -0.026 4.025 0.235 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.029 0.346 1.163 0.032 0.005 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.205 -0.042 3.874 0.233 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.027 0.411 0.793 0.030 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 274 1.000 0.165 -0.590 2.755 0.183 -0.011 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.191 -0.274 3.442 0.212 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.218 0.137 4.235 0.242 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.265 0.891 8.602 0.305 0.007 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.577 0.061 0.004 0.580 4.160 0.427 0.809 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.427 SERIES 723071 AND 723121 354 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.809 SERIES 723031 AND 723032 294 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.745 0.830 0.700 0.551 0.397 0.555 0.599 0.609 0.612 0.658 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.104 0.174 0.174 0.111 0.091 0.087 0.096 0.102 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.033 0.020 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.007 EPS 0.886 0.961 0.950 0.940 0.923 0.964 0.970 0.972 0.972 0.977 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.704 0.675 0.580 0.573 0.514 SDEV 0.087 0.090 0.112 0.104 0.112 SERR 0.006 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.981 0.979 0.968 0.967 0.959 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 1.001 0.167 -0.137 3.938 0.187 -0.036 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.137 0.045 0.084 139 315 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.48 1.00 1.08 1.55 66.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.036 -0.061 0.014 -0.023 -0.006 0.054 -0.048 0.016 0.057 -0.017 PACF -0.036 -0.062 0.010 -0.026 -0.006 0.051 -0.045 0.019 0.051 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.001 -0.002 0.004 -0.006 0.049 -0.041 0.018 0.055 -0.008 PACF 0.000 0.001 -0.002 0.004 -0.006 0.049 -0.041 0.018 0.056 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.000 0.000 0.001 -0.002 0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 1.002 0.202 -0.001 2.855 0.160 0.516 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.515 0.392 0.364 0.360 0.284 0.253 0.187 0.191 0.181 0.128 PACF 0.515 0.173 0.152 0.135 0.009 0.031 -0.043 0.038 0.027 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.094 0.116 0.127 0.136 0.144 0.149 0.153 0.155 0.157 0.159 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.320 0.377 0.096 0.099 0.138 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES