RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ID008I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ID008I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 723 1 Galena Pass, Sawtooth NF DENSITY_EARLY PCEN - 723 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2580 4352-11443 1530 1983 723 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 9 723061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1703 1703 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 723062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1801 1803 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 723111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1710 1712 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 3.550 0.269 0.638 4.117 0.051 0.569 2 723012 1530 1983 454 3.245 0.201 0.141 3.315 0.049 0.463 3 723031 1690 1983 294 2.952 0.268 0.985 4.311 0.052 0.672 4 723032 1677 1983 307 2.814 0.285 1.539 8.070 0.053 0.712 5 723041 1706 1983 278 3.546 0.333 1.311 6.517 0.058 0.652 6 723042 1688 1983 296 3.428 0.299 0.903 4.175 0.056 0.620 7 723051 1621 1983 363 3.146 0.221 0.699 4.966 0.061 0.341 8 723052 1611 1983 373 3.209 0.233 0.943 6.762 0.059 0.372 9 723061 1681 1983 303 3.137 0.248 0.818 5.145 0.044 0.657 10 723062 1681 1983 303 3.182 0.322 3.199 19.576 0.050 0.656 11 723071 1630 1983 354 3.263 0.398 2.745 12.273 0.056 0.732 12 723072 1654 1983 330 3.073 0.288 2.706 14.103 0.058 0.656 13 723081 1677 1983 307 3.134 0.212 0.301 2.883 0.046 0.603 14 723082 1710 1983 274 3.134 0.304 1.252 5.922 0.050 0.753 15 723091 1655 1983 329 3.116 0.209 0.247 2.821 0.055 0.444 16 723092 1627 1983 357 3.210 0.317 1.485 6.863 0.064 0.607 17 723101 1661 1983 323 3.134 0.320 0.861 4.589 0.062 0.630 18 723102 1662 1983 322 3.338 0.270 0.909 4.383 0.053 0.579 19 723111 1666 1983 318 3.110 0.192 0.842 4.962 0.041 0.595 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 3.177 0.197 0.573 3.685 0.042 0.608 21 723121 1600 1983 384 3.124 0.193 1.159 8.514 0.054 0.271 22 723122 1601 1983 383 3.266 0.238 1.352 8.310 0.057 0.373 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1530 TO 1983 454 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 3.195 0.264 1.164 6.648 0.053 0.571 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.168 0.055 0.797 4.066 0.006 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 3.162 0.269 0.926 5.056 0.054 0.608 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 61 0.139 0.092 0.652 3.894 0.008 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 274 2.814 0.192 0.141 2.821 0.041 0.271 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 302 3.124 0.212 0.699 4.175 0.050 0.463 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 3.263 0.304 1.352 8.070 0.058 0.656 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 3.550 0.398 3.199 19.576 0.064 0.753 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.371 0.163 0.011 0.013 2.955 -0.072 0.800 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.072 SERIES 723032 AND 723101 307 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.800 SERIES 723031 AND 723032 294 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.301 0.528 0.357 0.463 0.290 0.488 0.399 0.360 0.407 0.551 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.150 0.160 0.244 0.187 0.246 0.220 0.193 0.162 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.047 0.030 0.028 0.014 0.016 0.014 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.534 0.848 0.818 0.916 0.881 0.953 0.936 0.925 0.938 0.964 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.605 0.505 0.542 0.604 0.552 SDEV 0.128 0.200 0.143 0.143 0.129 SERR 0.008 0.013 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.971 0.957 0.963 0.971 0.964 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 3.222 0.178 0.819 4.415 0.042 0.490 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.293 0.166 -0.305 184 270 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.57 1.00 1.08 1.65 7.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 326. 60. 274. 303. 363. 454. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.489 0.385 0.419 0.382 0.301 0.334 0.281 0.259 0.307 0.279 PACF 0.489 0.192 0.237 0.118 0.013 0.108 -0.002 0.031 0.106 0.027 95% C.L. 0.094 0.114 0.125 0.137 0.146 0.151 0.158 0.162 0.166 0.171 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.328 0.312 0.089 0.200 0.132 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 723011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006503 3.56439829 2 723012 1 0.82393014 0.00074797 0.00000000 2.54663348 3 723031 1 0.72936934 0.00870172 0.00000000 2.69005966 4 723032 1 0.95016152 0.02033457 0.00000000 2.66352248 5 723041 1 1.00992894 0.03299888 0.00000000 3.43726754 6 723042 1 0.82786179 0.02940300 0.00000000 3.33422899 7 723051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030449 3.09058881 8 723052 1 0.29534692 0.05566339 0.00000000 3.19530940 9 723061 1 0.81486392 0.06764030 0.00000000 3.10006118 10 723062 1 1.85234261 0.07404542 0.00000000 3.10147309 11 723071 1 2.24973440 0.07189447 0.00000000 3.17790866 12 723072 1 0.75927669 0.05712365 0.00000000 3.03340745 13 723081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056139 3.22006965 14 723082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038200 3.18690467 15 723091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023295 3.07770300 16 723092 1 1.46280026 0.05970469 0.00000000 3.14312029 17 723101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00124540 2.93192911 18 723102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00101950 3.17364264 19 723111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001587 3.10622334 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 723112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008281 3.16371965 21 723121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029795 3.18147016 22 723122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010142 3.24684525 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.000 0.076 0.615 4.149 0.051 0.567 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.059 0.451 3.988 0.049 0.387 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.066 1.128 5.191 0.052 0.383 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.063 0.557 3.746 0.052 0.324 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.073 0.876 5.263 0.058 0.439 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.071 0.780 4.997 0.056 0.434 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.069 0.617 4.791 0.061 0.327 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.072 1.068 7.339 0.059 0.352 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.070 0.504 3.862 0.045 0.623 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.059 0.565 4.686 0.050 0.323 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.080 1.530 8.588 0.056 0.455 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.082 1.147 6.058 0.058 0.543 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.066 0.251 2.982 0.046 0.575 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.096 1.156 5.827 0.049 0.744 15 723091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.067 0.219 2.902 0.055 0.438 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.075 0.727 4.114 0.064 0.381 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.095 1.052 5.375 0.062 0.573 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.075 0.917 4.479 0.053 0.520 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.062 0.866 5.006 0.040 0.598 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.062 0.623 3.799 0.041 0.607 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.061 1.203 8.563 0.054 0.245 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.073 1.359 8.347 0.057 0.371 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.071 0.828 5.184 0.053 0.464 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.010 0.350 1.680 0.006 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.071 0.823 4.894 0.053 0.439 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.012 0.564 1.839 0.008 0.202 MINIMUM VALUE 274 1.000 0.059 0.219 2.902 0.040 0.245 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.063 0.565 3.988 0.049 0.371 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.075 1.128 5.827 0.058 0.573 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.096 1.530 8.588 0.064 0.744 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 723011 -67 302 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 723012 -67 304 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 723031 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 723032 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 723041 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 723042 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 723051 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 723052 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 723061 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 723062 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 723071 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 723072 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 723081 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 723082 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 723091 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 723092 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 723101 -67 216 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 723102 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 723111 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 723112 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 723121 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 723122 -67 256 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.000 0.069 0.813 5.212 0.051 0.473 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.056 0.486 4.150 0.049 0.326 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.061 1.170 5.367 0.052 0.300 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.060 0.740 4.075 0.052 0.230 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.066 0.942 5.544 0.057 0.319 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.070 0.811 5.105 0.056 0.412 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.068 0.660 4.848 0.061 0.298 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.070 1.039 7.061 0.059 0.330 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.062 0.423 4.035 0.045 0.519 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.058 0.566 4.673 0.050 0.318 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.077 1.676 9.081 0.056 0.415 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.079 1.281 7.103 0.058 0.512 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.056 0.245 3.247 0.046 0.414 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.075 1.187 5.540 0.049 0.597 15 723091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.063 0.284 3.094 0.055 0.367 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.069 0.710 3.845 0.064 0.279 17 723101 1661 1983 323 0.999 0.075 1.218 5.890 0.062 0.323 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.068 0.935 4.480 0.053 0.408 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.050 0.574 3.892 0.040 0.423 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.055 0.435 3.500 0.041 0.500 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.060 1.184 8.443 0.054 0.234 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.071 1.411 9.258 0.057 0.340 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.065 0.854 5.338 0.053 0.379 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.008 0.384 1.810 0.006 0.097 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.067 0.812 4.976 0.053 0.353 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.011 0.618 1.855 0.008 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 274 0.999 0.050 0.245 3.094 0.040 0.230 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.060 0.566 4.035 0.049 0.318 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.070 1.184 5.890 0.057 0.423 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.079 1.676 9.258 0.064 0.597 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.476 0.100 0.007 -0.323 3.245 0.170 0.761 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.170 SERIES 723011 AND 723112 330 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.761 SERIES 723041 AND 723042 278 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.306 0.497 0.374 0.409 0.301 0.473 0.435 0.368 0.416 0.561 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.150 0.135 0.228 0.167 0.190 0.207 0.201 0.147 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.047 0.026 0.026 0.012 0.012 0.014 0.013 0.010 EPS 0.539 0.832 0.829 0.898 0.887 0.950 0.944 0.928 0.940 0.966 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.611 0.509 0.559 0.599 0.561 SDEV 0.126 0.182 0.139 0.141 0.128 SERR 0.008 0.012 0.009 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.972 0.958 0.965 0.970 0.966 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.996 0.046 0.879 5.243 0.042 0.281 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.203 0.082 -0.038 115 339 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.74 1.00 1.10 1.84 23.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.281 0.171 0.200 0.140 0.044 0.121 0.059 0.029 0.113 0.058 PACF 0.281 0.100 0.141 0.046 -0.040 0.086 -0.015 -0.006 0.090 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.094 0.101 0.104 0.107 0.108 0.109 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.111 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.112 0.238 0.068 0.145 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.244 0.111 0.145 0.060 -0.022 0.081 0.004 -0.030 0.058 -0.031 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.244 2 0.230 0.055 3 0.224 0.029 0.113 4 0.224 0.030 0.114 -0.004 5 0.224 0.036 0.115 0.009 -0.055 6 0.229 0.035 0.105 0.006 -0.075 0.087 7 0.232 0.032 0.105 0.009 -0.073 0.095 -0.036 8 0.231 0.035 0.104 0.010 -0.071 0.096 -0.031 -0.025 9 0.233 0.037 0.098 0.014 -0.071 0.089 -0.033 -0.039 0.061 10 0.236 0.034 0.096 0.020 -0.076 0.090 -0.027 -0.037 0.076 -0.063 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2623.80 2598.03 2598.63 2594.82 2596.81 2597.43 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2596.02 2597.41 2599.13 2599.42 2599.59 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.244 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.93 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.31 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.244 0.059 0.014 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 723011 1 0.253 0.476 2 723012 1 0.125 0.330 3 723031 1 0.121 0.303 4 723032 1 0.088 0.236 5 723041 1 0.105 0.320 6 723042 1 0.189 0.412 7 723051 1 0.099 0.298 8 723052 1 0.127 0.331 9 723061 1 0.296 0.527 10 723062 1 0.112 0.327 11 723071 1 0.183 0.418 12 723072 1 0.275 0.519 13 723081 1 0.212 0.417 14 723082 1 0.365 0.599 15 723091 1 0.143 0.367 16 723092 1 0.089 0.282 17 723101 1 0.127 0.325 18 723102 1 0.204 0.414 19 723111 1 0.223 0.434 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 723112 1 0.304 0.502 21 723121 1 0.069 0.235 22 723122 1 0.124 0.344 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.174 0.383 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.083 0.098 MEDIAN 1 0.135 0.356 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.111 0.114 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.069 0.235 LOWER HINGE 1 0.112 0.320 UPPER HINGE 1 0.223 0.434 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.365 0.599 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.000 0.061 0.853 6.690 0.065 -0.088 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.053 0.521 4.237 0.057 -0.041 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.058 1.190 6.193 0.061 -0.054 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.058 0.772 4.137 0.059 -0.045 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.063 1.042 5.978 0.066 -0.018 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.064 1.005 6.001 0.068 -0.062 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.065 0.684 4.990 0.070 -0.030 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.066 1.060 7.294 0.070 -0.045 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.052 0.485 4.308 0.058 -0.083 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.055 0.527 4.890 0.058 -0.025 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.070 1.759 10.955 0.068 -0.043 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.068 0.686 4.427 0.073 -0.052 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.051 0.478 3.525 0.058 -0.090 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.060 0.690 4.766 0.066 -0.058 15 723091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.058 0.408 3.281 0.064 -0.035 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.066 0.686 3.770 0.073 -0.024 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.071 1.167 5.926 0.074 -0.048 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.061 0.928 4.757 0.066 -0.079 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.045 0.536 3.863 0.050 -0.095 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.047 0.361 3.632 0.054 -0.131 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.059 1.290 9.356 0.061 -0.028 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.067 1.417 10.141 0.067 -0.025 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.060 0.843 5.596 0.064 -0.054 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.007 0.365 2.154 0.006 0.029 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.060 0.731 4.828 0.065 -0.047 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.011 0.533 2.056 0.009 0.049 MINIMUM VALUE 274 1.000 0.045 0.361 3.281 0.050 -0.131 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.055 0.527 4.137 0.058 -0.079 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.066 1.060 6.193 0.068 -0.030 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.071 1.759 10.955 0.074 -0.018 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.536 0.081 0.005 0.013 3.316 0.309 0.779 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.309 SERIES 723082 AND 723121 274 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.779 SERIES 723041 AND 723042 278 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.419 0.531 0.428 0.414 0.360 0.438 0.418 0.391 0.463 0.669 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.127 0.123 0.161 0.149 0.143 0.178 0.164 0.089 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.023 0.018 0.011 0.009 0.012 0.011 0.006 EPS 0.658 0.850 0.859 0.899 0.911 0.943 0.941 0.934 0.950 0.978 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.700 0.602 0.595 0.621 0.612 SDEV 0.086 0.126 0.129 0.124 0.105 SERR 0.006 0.008 0.009 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.981 0.971 0.970 0.973 0.972 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.997 0.044 0.907 5.663 0.049 -0.126 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.253 0.101 -0.062 116 338 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.85 1.00 1.08 1.93 79.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.125 0.009 0.114 0.077 -0.060 0.106 0.002 -0.038 0.103 -0.007 PACF -0.125 -0.007 0.116 0.109 -0.040 0.080 0.006 -0.038 0.085 -0.002 95% C.L. 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.016 -0.126 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.007 0.128 0.085 -0.039 0.101 0.011 -0.026 0.101 0.012 PACF -0.001 0.007 0.128 0.087 -0.040 0.085 -0.009 -0.025 0.088 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.997 0.045 0.908 5.263 0.042 0.250 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.249 0.099 0.163 0.114 0.016 0.099 0.036 0.010 0.103 0.046 PACF 0.249 0.039 0.138 0.045 -0.038 0.085 -0.027 0.000 0.090 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.094 0.100 0.100 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.106 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.065 0.251 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES