RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ID008L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ID008L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 723 1 Galena Pass, Sawtooth NF WIDTH_LATE PCEN - 723 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2580 4352-11443 1530 1983 723 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 723011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1760 1764 / 1885 1889 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 723012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1707 1713 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 723031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1939 1943 / 1951 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 723061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 3 GAPS / 1703 1703 / 1937 1943 / 1973 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 723062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1801 1803 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 723071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1964 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 723091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1959 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 723092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1962 1966 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 723101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1768 1772 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 723102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1714 1718 / 1929 1934 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 723111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1710 1712 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 723121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1760 1764 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 0.133 0.098 1.471 4.629 0.190 0.888 2 723012 1530 1983 454 0.109 0.075 2.539 10.388 0.156 0.910 3 723031 1690 1983 294 0.115 0.051 2.323 11.430 0.188 0.758 4 723032 1677 1983 307 0.133 0.049 1.233 5.708 0.206 0.600 5 723041 1706 1983 278 0.175 0.065 0.710 3.442 0.173 0.788 6 723042 1688 1983 296 0.186 0.078 1.193 4.405 0.200 0.774 7 723051 1621 1983 363 0.146 0.079 1.271 3.716 0.184 0.867 8 723052 1611 1983 373 0.135 0.066 1.870 8.739 0.182 0.796 9 723061 1681 1983 303 0.112 0.044 2.316 10.448 0.174 0.701 10 723062 1681 1983 303 0.135 0.074 6.216 59.931 0.153 0.647 11 723071 1630 1983 354 0.136 0.062 2.050 8.743 0.171 0.768 12 723072 1654 1983 330 0.132 0.067 4.835 33.516 0.173 0.851 13 723081 1677 1983 307 0.113 0.034 0.420 2.467 0.143 0.780 14 723082 1710 1983 274 0.151 0.078 2.002 7.656 0.211 0.783 15 723091 1655 1983 329 0.151 0.048 2.023 8.949 0.184 0.572 16 723092 1627 1983 357 0.121 0.065 2.493 15.477 0.194 0.789 17 723101 1661 1983 323 0.132 0.041 0.605 3.003 0.159 0.738 18 723102 1662 1983 322 0.147 0.053 0.904 3.390 0.161 0.813 19 723111 1666 1983 318 0.174 0.086 1.261 4.111 0.175 0.864 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 0.161 0.088 1.117 3.345 0.184 0.850 21 723121 1600 1983 384 0.147 0.077 2.229 11.215 0.181 0.848 22 723122 1601 1983 383 0.128 0.064 2.070 8.550 0.220 0.656 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1530 TO 1983 454 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 334 0.140 0.066 1.961 10.603 0.180 0.775 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.021 0.017 1.332 12.861 0.019 0.091 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 321 0.135 0.066 1.936 8.103 0.181 0.785 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 63 0.023 0.027 1.124 6.732 0.019 0.111 MINIMUM VALUE 274 0.109 0.034 0.420 2.467 0.143 0.572 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 300 0.128 0.051 1.193 3.716 0.171 0.738 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 0.151 0.078 2.316 10.448 0.190 0.850 MAXIMUM VALUE 447 0.186 0.098 6.216 59.931 0.220 0.910 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.509 0.159 0.010 -0.297 2.472 0.040 0.854 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.040 SERIES 723012 AND 723081 307 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.854 SERIES 723111 AND 723112 318 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.255 0.615 0.602 0.242 0.159 0.268 0.285 0.399 0.257 0.271 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.157 0.303 0.285 0.239 0.249 0.167 0.200 0.202 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.050 0.057 0.032 0.017 0.016 0.011 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.476 0.889 0.925 0.802 0.775 0.886 0.898 0.936 0.884 0.891 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.255 0.097 0.150 0.174 0.216 SDEV 0.189 0.202 0.177 0.208 0.250 SERR 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.014 0.016 EPS 0.883 0.702 0.795 0.822 0.858 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.162 0.073 1.392 5.636 0.116 0.897 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.564 0.233 0.012 186 268 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.46 0.91 1.00 1.16 2.07 21.43 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 326. 60. 274. 303. 363. 454. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.895 0.842 0.802 0.787 0.776 0.756 0.738 0.722 0.703 0.689 PACF 0.895 0.204 0.104 0.158 0.108 0.024 0.037 0.034 -0.003 0.023 95% C.L. 0.094 0.151 0.188 0.216 0.240 0.261 0.280 0.297 0.312 0.325 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.834 0.560 0.101 0.045 0.092 0.159 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 723011 1 0.33367628 0.00704617 0.00000000 0.03182726 2 723012 1 0.31316707 0.01716431 0.00000000 0.06807493 3 723031 1 0.18104073 0.02275980 0.00000000 0.08698214 4 723032 1 0.15089941 0.00374629 0.00000000 0.04306566 5 723041 1 0.18471955 0.01019008 0.00000000 0.11362389 6 723042 1 0.24513276 0.00645309 0.00000000 0.07737126 7 723051 1 0.25544891 0.00770771 0.00000000 0.06059893 8 723052 1 0.20408554 0.01201255 0.00000000 0.09041564 9 723061 1 0.14553994 0.02336436 0.00000000 0.09082526 10 723062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042628 0.20011310 11 723071 1 0.16835862 0.01445271 0.00000000 0.10305632 12 723072 1 0.15149483 0.01740937 0.00000000 0.10576267 13 723081 1 0.07704468 0.02237567 0.00000000 0.10198317 14 723082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00052614 0.22314751 15 723091 1 0.18028882 0.04611871 0.00000000 0.13902783 16 723092 1 0.20842005 0.00961538 0.00000000 0.06187610 17 723101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030551 0.18206927 18 723102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040892 0.21250318 19 723111 1 0.27840120 0.00643796 0.00000000 0.05625959 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 723112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00074322 0.28412399 21 723121 1 0.24445528 0.01155426 0.00000000 0.09345604 22 723122 1 0.15119950 0.00753164 0.00000000 0.07858959 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.001 0.283 0.432 2.762 0.190 0.620 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.001 0.240 2.130 17.385 0.154 0.438 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.246 1.518 7.685 0.188 0.343 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.296 1.448 5.867 0.206 0.442 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.274 0.773 3.583 0.173 0.653 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.261 0.806 4.250 0.199 0.436 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.002 0.287 2.059 12.494 0.184 0.602 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.300 0.962 4.085 0.181 0.628 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.244 1.433 7.775 0.172 0.419 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.016 0.385 4.115 34.834 0.153 0.644 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.304 1.111 4.560 0.171 0.628 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.323 2.264 10.945 0.173 0.689 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.273 0.864 3.659 0.143 0.734 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.001 0.412 2.704 16.464 0.210 0.595 15 723091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.256 2.539 17.951 0.182 0.351 16 723092 1627 1983 357 0.999 0.247 1.393 7.464 0.194 0.408 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.003 0.239 0.646 3.179 0.158 0.602 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.004 0.244 0.561 3.168 0.158 0.632 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.002 0.283 1.226 5.249 0.174 0.634 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.047 0.375 1.136 3.997 0.184 0.702 21 723121 1600 1983 384 0.999 0.266 0.835 4.487 0.180 0.518 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.401 3.751 28.172 0.219 0.436 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.003 0.293 1.578 9.546 0.179 0.552 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.010 0.054 0.997 8.609 0.019 0.120 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.278 1.310 5.558 0.181 0.602 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.002 0.057 1.295 8.497 0.019 0.198 MINIMUM VALUE 274 0.999 0.239 0.432 2.762 0.143 0.343 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.247 0.835 3.997 0.171 0.436 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.002 0.304 2.130 12.494 0.190 0.634 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.047 0.412 4.115 34.834 0.219 0.734 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 723011 -67 302 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 723012 -67 304 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 723031 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 723032 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 723041 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 723042 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 723051 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 723052 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 723061 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 723062 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 723071 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 723072 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 723081 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 723082 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 723091 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 723092 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 723101 -67 216 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 723102 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 723111 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 723112 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 723121 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 723122 -67 256 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 0.996 0.267 0.419 2.942 0.189 0.576 2 723012 1530 1983 454 0.999 0.233 2.026 16.220 0.154 0.418 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.241 1.606 7.868 0.188 0.297 4 723032 1677 1983 307 0.999 0.288 1.322 5.380 0.206 0.419 5 723041 1706 1983 278 0.993 0.213 0.910 4.570 0.173 0.441 6 723042 1688 1983 296 0.997 0.244 0.728 4.037 0.199 0.373 7 723051 1621 1983 363 0.998 0.268 1.850 11.416 0.184 0.549 8 723052 1611 1983 373 0.996 0.271 0.984 4.274 0.182 0.560 9 723061 1681 1983 303 0.999 0.234 1.795 10.952 0.172 0.354 10 723062 1681 1983 303 0.996 0.257 3.632 34.486 0.152 0.471 11 723071 1630 1983 354 0.994 0.270 1.343 6.394 0.171 0.520 12 723072 1654 1983 330 0.997 0.311 2.775 15.345 0.173 0.665 13 723081 1677 1983 307 0.993 0.218 0.838 3.889 0.143 0.606 14 723082 1710 1983 274 0.991 0.362 2.760 18.221 0.211 0.516 15 723091 1655 1983 329 0.999 0.238 2.623 18.581 0.182 0.287 16 723092 1627 1983 357 0.998 0.234 1.488 8.731 0.194 0.351 17 723101 1661 1983 323 0.996 0.194 0.372 2.734 0.158 0.418 18 723102 1662 1983 322 0.995 0.197 0.584 3.397 0.158 0.452 19 723111 1666 1983 318 0.996 0.235 1.220 6.010 0.174 0.502 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 0.994 0.234 1.062 5.806 0.184 0.348 21 723121 1600 1983 384 0.998 0.255 1.098 6.234 0.180 0.452 22 723122 1601 1983 383 0.998 0.385 3.531 25.468 0.219 0.416 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 0.996 0.257 1.589 10.134 0.179 0.454 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.002 0.047 0.948 8.221 0.019 0.100 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 0.997 0.242 1.333 6.314 0.181 0.446 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.003 0.036 1.116 11.071 0.019 0.147 MINIMUM VALUE 274 0.991 0.194 0.372 2.734 0.143 0.287 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 0.995 0.234 0.910 4.274 0.171 0.373 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 0.998 0.270 2.026 15.345 0.189 0.520 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.385 3.632 34.486 0.219 0.665 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.200 0.105 0.007 -0.006 3.157 -0.097 0.506 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.097 SERIES 723011 AND 723091 329 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.506 SERIES 723041 AND 723042 278 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.414 0.549 0.491 0.189 0.130 0.323 0.349 0.307 0.202 0.152 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.146 0.320 0.285 0.239 0.201 0.163 0.180 0.177 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.046 0.060 0.032 0.017 0.013 0.011 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.653 0.859 0.887 0.747 0.731 0.910 0.922 0.907 0.848 0.798 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.183 0.138 0.159 0.183 0.238 SDEV 0.175 0.185 0.178 0.201 0.208 SERR 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.831 0.779 0.806 0.831 0.873 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.980 0.142 0.260 3.037 0.109 0.523 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.290 0.174 0.022 158 296 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.40 1.28 1.00 1.11 2.39 80.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.521 0.362 0.267 0.206 0.179 0.153 0.105 0.116 0.127 0.073 PACF 0.521 0.124 0.052 0.031 0.042 0.025 -0.020 0.050 0.047 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.094 0.117 0.126 0.131 0.134 0.136 0.137 0.138 0.139 0.140 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.286 0.459 0.121 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.499 0.341 0.258 0.230 0.175 0.199 0.152 0.176 0.115 0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.499 2 0.437 0.123 3 0.429 0.095 0.064 4 0.425 0.088 0.032 0.074 5 0.424 0.088 0.032 0.070 0.009 6 0.423 0.081 0.029 0.062 -0.030 0.093 7 0.424 0.081 0.029 0.063 -0.030 0.096 -0.007 8 0.424 0.074 0.031 0.058 -0.032 0.090 -0.039 0.075 9 0.427 0.072 0.035 0.057 -0.030 0.091 -0.036 0.091 -0.037 10 0.423 0.081 0.031 0.066 -0.033 0.096 -0.032 0.098 0.004 -0.098 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3515.76 3387.85 3382.90 3383.02 3382.50 3384.46 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3382.53 3384.51 3383.96 3385.32 3382.96 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.437 0.123 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 26.03 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 135.18 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.437 0.315 0.191 0.123 0.077 0.049 0.031 0.020 0.012 0.0078 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 723011 2 0.386 0.425 0.266 2 723012 2 0.224 0.324 0.227 3 723031 2 0.097 0.279 0.069 4 723032 2 0.219 0.360 0.161 5 723041 2 0.203 0.441 0.006 6 723042 2 0.163 0.321 0.140 7 723051 2 0.351 0.407 0.261 8 723052 2 0.344 0.484 0.149 9 723061 2 0.137 0.320 0.103 10 723062 2 0.334 0.494 0.120 11 723071 2 0.341 0.382 0.267 12 723072 2 0.446 0.615 0.075 13 723081 2 0.397 0.482 0.207 14 723082 2 0.324 0.388 0.248 15 723091 2 0.107 0.243 0.154 16 723092 2 0.136 0.327 0.071 17 723101 2 0.202 0.358 0.147 18 723102 2 0.243 0.372 0.178 19 723111 2 0.271 0.425 0.156 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 723112 2 0.165 0.287 0.179 21 723121 2 0.230 0.373 0.174 22 723122 2 0.195 0.362 0.133 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.251 0.385 0.159 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.101 0.084 0.070 MEDIAN 2 0.227 0.373 0.155 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.175 0.100 0.087 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.097 0.243 0.006 LOWER HINGE 2 0.165 0.324 0.120 UPPER HINGE 2 0.341 0.425 0.207 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.446 0.615 0.267 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.000 0.209 0.412 3.702 0.233 -0.024 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.206 3.108 27.608 0.186 -0.021 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.229 1.826 9.353 0.213 0.001 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.256 1.483 7.717 0.253 -0.030 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.190 0.945 5.389 0.209 -0.001 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.224 0.866 4.786 0.233 -0.013 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.216 1.791 16.663 0.223 0.001 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.220 0.830 5.426 0.231 -0.022 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.217 2.000 15.122 0.206 -0.005 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.200 2.597 21.777 0.199 -0.113 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.222 1.355 9.975 0.212 -0.043 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.232 0.875 6.467 0.242 0.001 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.170 0.841 5.105 0.185 -0.009 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.300 3.313 28.412 0.252 -0.034 15 723091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.225 2.717 18.804 0.205 -0.008 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.219 1.490 9.089 0.232 -0.006 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.174 0.511 3.538 0.190 -0.016 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.173 0.735 4.044 0.187 -0.024 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.200 1.048 5.277 0.210 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.215 1.153 7.454 0.214 -0.023 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.224 1.833 11.077 0.216 -0.008 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.347 4.355 37.891 0.265 -0.012 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.221 1.640 12.031 0.218 -0.019 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.040 1.021 9.467 0.023 0.024 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.218 1.419 8.403 0.213 -0.013 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.025 1.134 11.385 0.027 0.019 MINIMUM VALUE 274 1.000 0.170 0.412 3.538 0.185 -0.113 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.200 0.866 5.277 0.205 -0.024 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.225 2.000 16.663 0.233 -0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.347 4.355 37.891 0.265 0.001 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.191 0.078 0.005 0.350 3.795 -0.017 0.494 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.017 SERIES 723011 AND 723091 329 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.494 SERIES 723041 AND 723042 278 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.422 0.444 0.330 0.279 0.234 0.270 0.309 0.290 0.204 0.166 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.185 0.190 0.181 0.161 0.150 0.157 0.158 0.178 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.059 0.036 0.020 0.012 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.660 0.800 0.800 0.831 0.847 0.887 0.908 0.900 0.849 0.814 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.164 0.128 0.180 0.195 0.172 SDEV 0.171 0.169 0.164 0.156 0.145 SERR 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.811 0.763 0.828 0.842 0.820 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.988 0.121 0.396 3.307 0.130 0.064 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.188 0.112 0.052 170 284 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 1.00 1.00 1.09 2.09 189.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.064 -0.049 0.019 0.019 0.038 0.037 -0.032 0.039 0.064 -0.035 PACF 0.064 -0.053 0.026 0.014 0.038 0.033 -0.034 0.046 0.052 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.000 0.027 0.015 0.034 0.040 -0.032 0.037 0.063 -0.035 PACF 0.001 0.000 0.027 0.015 0.034 0.040 -0.033 0.035 0.060 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.988 0.142 0.341 3.179 0.109 0.516 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.515 0.369 0.264 0.193 0.157 0.128 0.078 0.096 0.099 0.050 PACF 0.515 0.141 0.039 0.017 0.028 0.017 -0.027 0.054 0.033 -0.045 95% C.L. 0.094 0.116 0.126 0.131 0.133 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.137 0.138 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.281 0.444 0.139 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES