RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ID008N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ID008N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 723 1 Galena Pass, Sawtooth NF DENSITY_MINIMUM PCEN - 723 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2580 4352-11443 1530 1983 723 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 723011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1577 1581 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 723012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1731 1736 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 723032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1728 1735 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 723041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1964 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 723052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1879 1883 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 723061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1703 1703 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 723062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 3 GAPS / 1794 1798 / 1801 1803 / 1824 1830 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 723071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1673 1678 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 723091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1683 1687 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 723102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1924 1929 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 723111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1710 1712 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 723112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1658 1662 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 723122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 0.313 0.027 0.745 6.742 0.059 0.470 2 723012 1530 1983 454 0.286 0.020 0.319 3.426 0.056 0.425 3 723031 1690 1983 294 0.263 0.023 1.058 4.371 0.062 0.518 4 723032 1677 1983 307 0.248 0.025 1.083 5.376 0.070 0.573 5 723041 1706 1983 278 0.309 0.034 1.739 9.086 0.068 0.638 6 723042 1688 1983 296 0.297 0.030 1.145 5.324 0.063 0.625 7 723051 1621 1983 363 0.275 0.025 0.715 4.729 0.073 0.368 8 723052 1611 1983 373 0.280 0.023 1.005 7.298 0.065 0.388 9 723061 1681 1983 303 0.277 0.022 0.674 3.967 0.050 0.617 10 723062 1681 1983 303 0.282 0.026 2.658 16.139 0.055 0.556 11 723071 1630 1983 354 0.288 0.038 2.693 12.727 0.069 0.641 12 723072 1654 1983 330 0.270 0.027 2.001 9.782 0.064 0.613 13 723081 1677 1983 307 0.273 0.020 0.190 3.335 0.055 0.477 14 723082 1710 1983 274 0.273 0.030 1.197 6.291 0.058 0.712 15 723091 1655 1983 329 0.277 0.023 0.374 2.870 0.069 0.405 16 723092 1627 1983 357 0.279 0.029 1.556 7.768 0.075 0.508 17 723101 1661 1983 323 0.272 0.032 0.775 4.616 0.068 0.652 18 723102 1662 1983 322 0.290 0.026 0.724 4.194 0.060 0.584 19 723111 1666 1983 318 0.273 0.021 0.282 3.988 0.054 0.556 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 0.276 0.021 0.317 3.242 0.054 0.551 21 723121 1600 1983 384 0.278 0.020 1.533 11.461 0.061 0.251 22 723122 1601 1983 383 0.286 0.024 1.525 10.117 0.067 0.351 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1530 TO 1983 454 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 334 0.280 0.026 1.105 6.675 0.062 0.522 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.014 0.005 0.715 3.543 0.007 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 323 0.278 0.025 1.032 5.350 0.062 0.553 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 64 0.013 0.006 0.859 5.097 0.012 0.192 MINIMUM VALUE 273 0.248 0.020 0.190 2.870 0.050 0.251 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 299 0.273 0.022 0.674 3.988 0.056 0.425 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 0.286 0.029 1.533 9.086 0.068 0.617 MAXIMUM VALUE 448 0.313 0.038 2.693 16.139 0.075 0.712 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.361 0.159 0.010 -0.050 2.743 0.009 0.771 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.009 SERIES 723041 AND 723111 278 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.771 SERIES 723101 AND 723102 322 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.326 0.613 0.453 0.435 0.317 0.490 0.384 0.379 0.439 0.582 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.126 0.158 0.230 0.188 0.227 0.201 0.181 0.158 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.030 0.026 0.014 0.015 0.013 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.563 0.888 0.870 0.907 0.894 0.953 0.932 0.931 0.945 0.968 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.604 0.452 0.496 0.574 0.516 SDEV 0.116 0.204 0.147 0.137 0.133 SERR 0.008 0.013 0.010 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.971 0.948 0.956 0.967 0.959 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.280 0.016 0.885 4.846 0.048 0.331 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.321 0.194 -0.033 166 288 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.62 1.00 1.06 1.69 15.61 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 326. 60. 274. 303. 363. 454. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.330 0.212 0.229 0.243 0.152 0.180 0.141 0.108 0.182 0.118 PACF 0.330 0.115 0.147 0.135 0.010 0.083 0.010 0.000 0.110 -0.016 95% C.L. 0.094 0.104 0.107 0.112 0.116 0.118 0.120 0.122 0.123 0.125 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.160 0.254 0.065 0.110 0.141 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 723011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007539 0.29572484 2 723012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000337 0.28693637 3 723031 1 0.08187417 0.04787263 0.00000000 0.25768843 4 723032 1 0.08866890 0.03288054 0.00000000 0.23905875 5 723041 1 0.10898672 0.03534719 0.00000000 0.29813281 6 723042 1 0.09515549 0.03535038 0.00000000 0.28789076 7 723051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005796 0.26413482 8 723052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002752 0.27494314 9 723061 1 0.05852781 0.07671667 0.00000000 0.27449644 10 723062 1 0.13253184 0.07659609 0.00000000 0.27591640 11 723071 1 0.20507607 0.07867502 0.00000000 0.28023529 12 723072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000791 0.26878199 13 723081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003891 0.27921697 14 723082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000006 0.27305686 15 723091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010011 0.26029104 16 723092 1 0.12393418 0.06102144 0.00000000 0.27378255 17 723101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013678 0.24951406 18 723102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011551 0.27119881 19 723111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004509 0.26515356 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 723112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003977 0.26973712 21 723121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000046 0.27839601 22 723122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002370 0.28129923 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.000 0.081 1.068 6.935 0.059 0.419 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.069 0.336 3.479 0.055 0.425 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.071 1.074 5.700 0.062 0.272 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.073 0.380 3.051 0.069 0.200 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.083 1.253 7.237 0.067 0.393 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.080 0.665 4.811 0.062 0.411 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.086 0.680 4.894 0.073 0.332 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.082 0.949 7.045 0.064 0.379 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.076 0.550 3.516 0.050 0.599 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.064 0.949 5.292 0.053 0.321 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.096 1.382 7.794 0.068 0.409 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.099 2.076 10.229 0.064 0.612 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.071 0.114 3.559 0.055 0.456 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.110 1.197 6.291 0.058 0.709 15 723091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.076 0.261 2.632 0.068 0.305 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.081 0.805 4.063 0.075 0.274 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.108 0.985 5.451 0.068 0.589 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.081 0.837 4.491 0.059 0.498 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.076 0.668 4.999 0.053 0.552 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.076 0.567 3.513 0.054 0.582 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.073 1.532 11.458 0.061 0.250 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.085 1.561 10.365 0.067 0.340 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.082 0.904 5.764 0.062 0.424 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.012 0.476 2.465 0.007 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.081 0.893 5.145 0.062 0.410 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.011 0.631 3.485 0.012 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 274 1.000 0.064 0.114 2.632 0.050 0.200 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.073 0.567 3.559 0.055 0.321 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.085 1.197 7.045 0.068 0.552 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.110 2.076 11.458 0.075 0.709 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 723011 -67 302 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 723012 -67 304 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 723031 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 723032 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 723041 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 723042 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 723051 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 723052 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 723061 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 723062 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 723071 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 723072 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 723081 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 723082 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 723091 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 723092 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 723101 -67 216 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 723102 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 723111 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 723112 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 723121 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 723122 -67 256 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.000 0.075 1.318 7.863 0.059 0.323 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.064 0.344 3.597 0.055 0.344 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.065 1.028 5.240 0.062 0.130 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.069 0.514 3.218 0.069 0.105 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.076 1.306 8.122 0.067 0.278 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.078 0.673 4.924 0.062 0.378 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.084 0.708 4.834 0.073 0.296 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.080 1.014 7.200 0.064 0.352 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.069 0.391 3.512 0.050 0.510 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.063 0.950 5.565 0.053 0.291 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.094 1.587 8.502 0.068 0.369 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.084 1.373 6.608 0.064 0.467 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.065 0.116 3.457 0.055 0.346 14 723082 1710 1983 274 0.999 0.084 1.307 6.248 0.059 0.524 15 723091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.074 0.295 2.703 0.068 0.264 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.077 0.685 3.768 0.075 0.193 17 723101 1661 1983 323 0.999 0.084 1.154 5.832 0.068 0.326 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.073 0.837 4.384 0.059 0.391 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.064 0.468 3.876 0.053 0.382 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.067 0.470 3.427 0.054 0.467 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.072 1.422 10.864 0.061 0.222 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.083 1.606 11.040 0.067 0.317 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.075 0.889 5.672 0.062 0.331 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.008 0.451 2.409 0.007 0.109 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.075 0.894 5.082 0.062 0.335 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.016 0.837 3.602 0.012 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 274 0.999 0.063 0.116 2.703 0.050 0.105 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.067 0.470 3.597 0.055 0.278 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.083 1.307 7.200 0.068 0.382 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.094 1.606 11.040 0.075 0.524 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.467 0.095 0.006 -0.143 2.951 0.183 0.716 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.183 SERIES 723011 AND 723112 330 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.716 SERIES 723051 AND 723052 363 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.306 0.558 0.460 0.421 0.336 0.475 0.417 0.383 0.452 0.585 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.127 0.138 0.200 0.151 0.177 0.184 0.184 0.144 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.026 0.023 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.009 EPS 0.539 0.863 0.874 0.902 0.902 0.951 0.940 0.932 0.948 0.969 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.608 0.455 0.511 0.571 0.522 SDEV 0.112 0.193 0.146 0.135 0.130 SERR 0.007 0.013 0.010 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.972 0.948 0.958 0.967 0.960 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.996 0.052 0.927 5.157 0.048 0.240 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.237 0.104 -0.052 113 341 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.74 1.00 1.06 1.80 16.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.239 0.117 0.122 0.142 0.046 0.079 0.043 0.012 0.112 0.033 PACF 0.239 0.064 0.086 0.096 -0.021 0.053 -0.006 -0.019 0.110 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.094 0.099 0.100 0.102 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.105 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.080 0.211 0.043 0.065 0.103 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.214 0.099 0.089 0.093 0.006 0.053 -0.009 -0.013 0.056 -0.057 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.214 2 0.202 0.056 3 0.199 0.044 0.060 4 0.195 0.041 0.047 0.062 5 0.197 0.043 0.049 0.069 -0.036 6 0.199 0.040 0.047 0.067 -0.045 0.047 7 0.201 0.038 0.049 0.069 -0.043 0.054 -0.038 8 0.200 0.039 0.049 0.069 -0.043 0.055 -0.035 -0.014 9 0.201 0.041 0.045 0.072 -0.047 0.052 -0.038 -0.027 0.066 10 0.207 0.039 0.042 0.077 -0.052 0.058 -0.034 -0.023 0.083 -0.089 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2737.32 2717.99 2718.56 2718.94 2719.20 2720.62 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2721.63 2722.98 2724.89 2724.94 2723.32 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.214 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.59 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.81 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.214 0.046 0.010 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 723011 1 0.124 0.324 2 723012 1 0.145 0.348 3 723031 1 0.026 0.130 4 723032 1 0.023 0.105 5 723041 1 0.087 0.279 6 723042 1 0.159 0.378 7 723051 1 0.112 0.297 8 723052 1 0.162 0.353 9 723061 1 0.294 0.515 10 723062 1 0.104 0.300 11 723071 1 0.153 0.371 12 723072 1 0.237 0.469 13 723081 1 0.137 0.346 14 723082 1 0.284 0.528 15 723091 1 0.071 0.265 16 723092 1 0.045 0.195 17 723101 1 0.135 0.329 18 723102 1 0.191 0.398 19 723111 1 0.186 0.393 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 723112 1 0.254 0.469 21 723121 1 0.067 0.222 22 723122 1 0.103 0.319 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.141 0.333 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.077 0.110 MEDIAN 1 0.136 0.337 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.099 0.114 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.023 0.105 LOWER HINGE 1 0.087 0.279 UPPER HINGE 1 0.186 0.393 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.294 0.528 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.000 0.071 1.390 8.829 0.071 -0.047 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.060 0.374 3.665 0.066 -0.055 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.064 1.012 5.337 0.067 -0.012 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.069 0.545 3.269 0.074 -0.011 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.073 1.261 7.714 0.077 -0.028 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.072 0.742 5.829 0.076 -0.050 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.080 0.822 5.604 0.086 -0.048 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.075 1.102 8.042 0.078 -0.071 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.059 0.325 3.692 0.066 -0.102 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.060 0.800 5.503 0.063 -0.038 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.087 1.666 10.292 0.082 -0.051 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.074 0.754 4.475 0.080 -0.069 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.061 0.173 3.709 0.067 -0.048 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.072 0.730 4.795 0.078 -0.045 15 723091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.071 0.280 2.814 0.078 -0.010 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.075 0.703 3.845 0.083 -0.014 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.079 1.031 5.432 0.083 -0.056 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.067 0.805 4.409 0.075 -0.075 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.058 0.447 3.433 0.066 -0.084 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.059 0.394 3.149 0.069 -0.097 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.070 1.593 12.266 0.070 -0.030 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.079 1.743 13.327 0.078 -0.012 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.070 0.850 5.883 0.074 -0.048 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.008 0.458 2.982 0.007 0.027 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.071 0.777 5.066 0.075 -0.048 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.014 0.655 4.022 0.011 0.041 MINIMUM VALUE 274 1.000 0.058 0.173 2.814 0.063 -0.102 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.061 0.447 3.692 0.067 -0.069 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.075 1.102 7.714 0.078 -0.028 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.087 1.743 13.327 0.086 -0.010 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.511 0.079 0.005 0.156 3.214 0.283 0.754 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.283 SERIES 723082 AND 723121 274 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.754 SERIES 723051 AND 723052 363 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.406 0.586 0.495 0.417 0.380 0.425 0.387 0.398 0.467 0.657 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.103 0.116 0.142 0.140 0.137 0.162 0.162 0.099 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.022 0.016 0.010 0.009 0.011 0.011 0.006 EPS 0.645 0.876 0.888 0.901 0.918 0.940 0.933 0.936 0.951 0.977 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.685 0.547 0.523 0.575 0.551 SDEV 0.083 0.139 0.137 0.124 0.112 SERR 0.005 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.979 0.964 0.960 0.967 0.964 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.998 0.050 0.909 5.517 0.055 -0.101 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.287 0.126 -0.080 110 344 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.62 1.00 1.11 1.73 16.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.100 0.016 0.042 0.110 -0.029 0.060 0.012 -0.043 0.114 -0.016 PACF -0.100 0.006 0.045 0.120 -0.007 0.052 0.013 -0.055 0.105 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 -0.101 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.010 0.056 0.113 -0.012 0.059 0.015 -0.031 0.110 -0.001 PACF 0.000 0.010 0.056 0.113 -0.013 0.054 0.003 -0.044 0.109 -0.014 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.997 0.051 0.943 5.144 0.048 0.218 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.218 0.071 0.092 0.126 0.028 0.063 0.028 0.000 0.107 0.031 PACF 0.218 0.025 0.075 0.094 -0.024 0.052 -0.011 -0.019 0.111 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.094 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.102 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.049 0.220 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES