RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ID008T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ID008T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 723 1 Galena Pass, Sawtooth NF DENSITY_LATE PCEN - 723 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2580 4352-11443 1530 1983 723 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 9 723061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1703 1703 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 723062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1801 1803 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 723111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1710 1712 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 5.722 0.818 0.176 1.860 0.052 0.898 2 723012 1530 1983 454 5.622 0.685 0.132 2.326 0.062 0.790 3 723031 1690 1983 294 4.974 0.630 -0.107 2.315 0.087 0.619 4 723032 1677 1983 307 4.948 0.628 0.185 2.933 0.090 0.586 5 723041 1706 1983 278 6.056 0.533 -0.559 4.225 0.090 0.172 6 723042 1688 1983 296 6.107 0.588 -0.473 3.025 0.093 0.234 7 723051 1621 1983 363 5.274 0.520 0.093 2.443 0.072 0.568 8 723052 1611 1983 373 5.491 0.493 -0.253 2.626 0.076 0.432 9 723061 1681 1983 303 5.576 0.583 -0.395 2.934 0.065 0.684 10 723062 1681 1983 303 5.433 0.757 0.428 2.653 0.069 0.804 11 723071 1630 1983 354 5.601 0.464 0.147 3.302 0.063 0.533 12 723072 1654 1983 330 5.531 0.542 0.614 4.795 0.068 0.608 13 723081 1677 1983 307 5.478 0.579 -0.069 2.877 0.072 0.615 14 723082 1710 1983 274 5.574 0.676 -0.115 2.738 0.073 0.713 15 723091 1655 1983 329 5.040 0.727 -0.230 2.010 0.070 0.809 16 723092 1627 1983 357 5.571 0.560 -0.236 2.735 0.072 0.597 17 723101 1661 1983 323 5.720 0.427 -0.499 3.091 0.063 0.420 18 723102 1662 1983 322 6.107 0.458 -0.217 2.880 0.064 0.370 19 723111 1666 1983 318 5.360 0.468 -0.297 3.451 0.068 0.481 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 5.720 0.457 -0.380 3.200 0.076 0.263 21 723121 1600 1983 384 5.306 0.560 0.047 2.745 0.078 0.564 22 723122 1601 1983 383 5.799 0.492 -0.274 3.315 0.086 0.193 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1530 TO 1983 454 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 5.546 0.575 -0.104 2.931 0.073 0.543 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.322 0.106 0.304 0.657 0.011 0.206 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 5.573 0.560 -0.166 2.879 0.072 0.577 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 61 0.360 0.139 0.429 0.574 0.014 0.263 MINIMUM VALUE 274 4.948 0.427 -0.559 1.860 0.052 0.172 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 302 5.360 0.492 -0.297 2.626 0.065 0.420 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 5.720 0.630 0.132 3.200 0.078 0.684 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 6.107 0.818 0.614 4.795 0.093 0.898 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.448 0.172 0.011 -0.800 4.622 -0.251 0.804 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.251 SERIES 723011 AND 723102 322 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.804 SERIES 723041 AND 723042 278 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.219 0.475 0.313 0.481 0.511 0.467 0.485 0.391 0.517 0.532 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.161 0.165 0.150 0.218 0.227 0.195 0.164 0.191 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.051 0.031 0.017 0.016 0.015 0.013 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.428 0.819 0.787 0.922 0.950 0.949 0.954 0.934 0.959 0.962 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.435 0.422 0.451 0.442 0.390 SDEV 0.169 0.179 0.169 0.172 0.164 SERR 0.011 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.944 0.941 0.948 0.946 0.934 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 5.735 0.519 0.038 2.471 0.054 0.708 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.561 -0.186 1.541 100 354 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.23 1.01 1.05 1.29 11.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 326. 60. 274. 303. 363. 454. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.707 0.718 0.708 0.684 0.659 0.689 0.636 0.692 0.666 0.655 PACF 0.707 0.436 0.280 0.153 0.070 0.175 0.008 0.191 0.078 0.038 95% C.L. 0.094 0.133 0.163 0.188 0.209 0.227 0.245 0.259 0.275 0.288 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.667 0.172 0.219 0.180 0.104 0.052 0.206 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 723011 1 4.22783518 0.00155942 0.00000000 2.69089413 2 723012 1 3.26348209 0.00216017 0.00000000 3.54490018 3 723031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00523672 5.74591923 4 723032 1 1.78714371 0.00643159 0.00000000 4.17078400 5 723041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034725 6.00756550 6 723042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00079310 5.98874474 7 723051 1 1.02535665 0.03838592 0.00000000 5.20178795 8 723052 1 1.19093716 0.00392057 0.00000000 4.86665392 9 723061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00499820 6.33872128 10 723062 1 2.91383934 0.00490228 0.00000000 3.91857457 11 723071 1 1.48052967 0.04203253 0.00000000 5.50370741 12 723072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00229020 5.90978575 13 723081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00153233 5.71382952 14 723082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00404787 6.13085175 15 723091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00568636 5.97828054 16 723092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00339034 6.17813206 17 723101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00058342 5.81476164 18 723102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00065994 6.00018978 19 723111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00210737 5.69632626 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 723112 1 0.70506191 0.00970173 0.00000000 5.50950766 21 723121 1 1.14180541 0.00992210 0.00000000 5.01471090 22 723122 1 0.78867501 0.02260415 0.00000000 5.70874596 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.000 0.095 0.283 3.032 0.052 0.750 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.065 -0.483 3.914 0.061 0.237 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.091 0.064 3.005 0.087 0.247 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.093 -0.116 3.168 0.089 0.228 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.088 -0.583 4.250 0.089 0.169 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.096 -0.431 3.016 0.093 0.228 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.093 0.142 2.713 0.071 0.504 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.077 -0.214 3.395 0.076 0.211 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.071 -0.740 5.016 0.064 0.309 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.074 0.123 3.731 0.069 0.299 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.071 -0.161 3.232 0.062 0.362 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.089 0.401 3.518 0.068 0.518 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.102 -0.195 2.693 0.072 0.582 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.107 -0.027 2.778 0.073 0.624 15 723091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.097 -0.176 2.809 0.070 0.583 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.079 -0.139 2.869 0.072 0.340 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.074 -0.418 3.057 0.063 0.411 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.074 -0.207 2.994 0.064 0.361 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.079 -0.433 3.467 0.067 0.380 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.074 -0.516 3.737 0.076 0.130 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.091 -0.049 3.117 0.078 0.408 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.080 -0.459 3.570 0.086 0.081 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.085 -0.197 3.322 0.073 0.362 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.012 0.292 0.561 0.011 0.173 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.084 -0.186 3.142 0.072 0.351 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.019 0.406 0.577 0.014 0.276 MINIMUM VALUE 274 1.000 0.065 -0.740 2.693 0.052 0.081 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.074 -0.433 2.994 0.064 0.228 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.093 -0.027 3.570 0.078 0.504 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.107 0.401 5.016 0.093 0.750 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 723011 -67 302 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 723012 -67 304 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 723031 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 723032 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 723041 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 723042 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 723051 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 723052 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 723061 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 723062 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 723071 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 723072 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 723081 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 723082 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 723091 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 723092 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 723101 -67 216 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 723102 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 723111 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 723112 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 723121 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 723122 -67 256 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 0.999 0.069 0.141 3.675 0.052 0.534 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.064 -0.509 3.938 0.061 0.218 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.089 0.001 3.025 0.087 0.223 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.092 -0.136 3.205 0.089 0.212 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.084 -0.680 4.655 0.089 0.084 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.086 -0.678 3.809 0.093 0.053 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.086 0.113 2.835 0.071 0.426 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.076 -0.224 3.377 0.076 0.183 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.068 -0.749 5.055 0.064 0.250 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.071 0.049 3.393 0.069 0.250 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.065 -0.109 3.089 0.062 0.230 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.085 0.763 4.864 0.068 0.474 13 723081 1677 1983 307 0.999 0.080 -0.503 3.335 0.072 0.312 14 723082 1710 1983 274 0.999 0.089 -0.096 3.013 0.073 0.461 15 723091 1655 1983 329 0.999 0.078 -0.405 3.297 0.070 0.358 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.072 -0.205 3.279 0.072 0.220 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.068 -0.411 3.191 0.063 0.296 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.066 -0.432 3.693 0.064 0.184 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.076 -0.404 3.856 0.067 0.324 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.073 -0.511 3.766 0.076 0.116 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.084 -0.205 3.250 0.078 0.302 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.079 -0.446 3.472 0.086 0.050 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.077 -0.256 3.594 0.073 0.262 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.009 0.344 0.595 0.011 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.077 -0.314 3.385 0.072 0.240 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.015 0.406 0.604 0.014 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 274 0.999 0.064 -0.749 2.835 0.052 0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.069 -0.503 3.205 0.064 0.184 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.085 -0.096 3.809 0.078 0.324 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.092 0.763 5.055 0.093 0.534 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.439 0.121 0.008 -0.397 3.309 0.127 0.819 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.127 SERIES 723011 AND 723082 274 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.819 SERIES 723041 AND 723042 278 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.313 0.580 0.392 0.383 0.482 0.516 0.517 0.398 0.506 0.548 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.160 0.152 0.165 0.177 0.201 0.188 0.167 0.190 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.050 0.029 0.019 0.013 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.548 0.873 0.839 0.887 0.944 0.958 0.959 0.936 0.958 0.964 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.445 0.406 0.459 0.444 0.417 SDEV 0.170 0.170 0.158 0.157 0.158 SERR 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.946 0.938 0.949 0.946 0.940 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.998 0.051 -0.781 4.604 0.053 0.066 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.003 -0.001 0.054 115 339 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.22 1.00 1.05 1.27 5.02 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.066 0.108 0.083 0.063 -0.046 0.117 -0.061 0.125 0.097 0.049 PACF 0.066 0.104 0.071 0.044 -0.068 0.109 -0.074 0.123 0.087 0.012 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.100 0.100 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.022 0.052 0.100 0.072 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.019 0.076 0.036 0.029 -0.118 0.103 -0.123 0.058 0.081 0.018 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.019 2 0.018 0.075 3 0.015 0.075 0.033 4 0.015 0.073 0.033 0.022 5 0.017 0.077 0.042 0.024 -0.125 6 0.030 0.075 0.037 0.016 -0.127 0.104 7 0.042 0.060 0.039 0.020 -0.118 0.108 -0.116 8 0.050 0.053 0.047 0.019 -0.121 0.104 -0.118 0.063 9 0.044 0.064 0.037 0.031 -0.123 0.100 -0.123 0.058 0.095 10 0.044 0.065 0.036 0.031 -0.124 0.100 -0.123 0.058 0.095 -0.007 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2749.09 2750.93 2750.35 2751.85 2753.63 2748.46 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2745.50 2741.39 2741.61 2739.52 2741.50 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 7 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.042 0.060 0.039 0.020 -0.118 0.108 -0.116 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.67 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.90 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 7) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.042 0.062 0.044 0.028 -0.111 0.103 -0.119 -0.006 -0.011 0.0076 -0.030 0.037 -0.024 0.014 -0.001 0.006 -0.008 0.011 -0.008 0.0046 -0.003 0.002 -0.003 0.003 -0.003 0.002 -0.001 0.001 -0.001 0.0010 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 723011 7 0.357 0.360 0.131 0.138 0.028 -0.026 0.125 0.005 2 723012 7 0.084 0.193 0.072 0.102 -0.050 -0.027 0.109 0.030 3 723031 7 0.088 0.196 0.080 0.067 0.067 -0.059 0.034 -0.059 4 723032 7 0.119 0.204 0.088 0.001 0.099 -0.035 0.115 -0.125 5 723041 7 0.037 0.084 0.072 0.013 0.014 -0.056 0.048 -0.085 6 723042 7 0.061 0.066 0.035 0.004 0.079 -0.003 0.127 -0.128 7 723051 7 0.299 0.250 0.214 0.100 0.013 -0.033 0.159 0.033 8 723052 7 0.099 0.141 0.142 0.071 0.059 -0.017 0.136 -0.074 9 723061 7 0.141 0.216 0.142 0.038 0.113 -0.058 0.136 -0.124 10 723062 7 0.122 0.249 0.092 0.015 0.008 -0.073 0.220 -0.071 11 723071 7 0.124 0.207 0.127 0.067 0.033 -0.053 0.159 -0.147 12 723072 7 0.329 0.381 0.196 0.124 -0.041 -0.119 0.203 -0.194 13 723081 7 0.179 0.233 0.159 0.092 0.064 -0.068 0.086 -0.023 14 723082 7 0.294 0.312 0.206 0.170 -0.058 -0.047 0.069 0.024 15 723091 7 0.208 0.248 0.200 0.044 0.020 -0.017 0.163 -0.012 16 723092 7 0.098 0.210 0.131 -0.029 0.111 -0.102 0.066 -0.031 17 723101 7 0.192 0.211 0.129 0.195 0.056 -0.089 0.153 -0.074 18 723102 7 0.111 0.117 0.115 0.194 0.067 -0.033 0.067 -0.035 19 723111 7 0.186 0.249 0.104 0.075 0.163 -0.008 0.085 -0.123 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 723112 7 0.055 0.130 -0.073 0.029 0.127 -0.058 0.018 -0.065 21 723121 7 0.196 0.167 0.197 0.163 0.079 -0.021 0.090 -0.053 22 723122 7 0.043 0.040 0.129 0.081 0.018 -0.047 0.096 -0.046 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 7 0.155 0.203 0.122 0.080 0.049 -0.048 0.112 -0.063 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.094 0.086 0.065 0.064 0.057 0.030 0.052 0.060 MEDIAN 7 0.123 0.209 0.129 0.073 0.058 -0.047 0.112 -0.062 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.108 0.108 0.071 0.095 0.065 0.033 0.084 0.099 MINIMUM VALUE 7 0.037 0.040 -0.073 -0.029 -0.058 -0.119 0.018 -0.194 LOWER HINGE 7 0.088 0.141 0.088 0.029 0.014 -0.059 0.069 -0.123 UPPER HINGE 7 0.196 0.249 0.159 0.124 0.079 -0.026 0.153 -0.023 MAXIMUM VALUE 7 0.357 0.381 0.214 0.195 0.163 -0.003 0.220 0.033 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.000 0.056 0.024 3.940 0.061 0.000 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.061 -0.579 4.162 0.067 0.000 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.086 -0.111 3.176 0.095 0.007 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.088 -0.110 3.287 0.096 0.020 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.083 -0.665 4.747 0.091 0.009 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.084 -0.587 3.775 0.092 0.017 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.073 0.084 4.093 0.080 -0.006 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.072 -0.265 3.466 0.081 0.004 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.063 -0.559 4.712 0.069 0.004 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.067 0.180 3.408 0.075 0.006 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.061 -0.178 3.140 0.067 0.013 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.069 0.224 3.775 0.077 0.004 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.073 -0.512 4.079 0.080 0.003 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.075 -0.288 3.356 0.083 -0.003 15 723091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.070 -0.562 3.653 0.077 0.000 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.069 -0.304 3.230 0.077 0.003 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.061 -0.579 4.095 0.068 -0.003 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.062 -0.551 3.969 0.068 0.001 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.069 -0.498 4.269 0.074 0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.071 -0.451 3.915 0.079 0.008 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.075 -0.250 3.537 0.084 -0.001 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.077 -0.405 3.305 0.088 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.071 -0.316 3.777 0.079 0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.009 0.270 0.468 0.010 0.006 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.071 -0.354 3.775 0.078 0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.012 0.448 0.737 0.015 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 274 1.000 0.056 -0.665 3.140 0.061 -0.006 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.063 -0.559 3.356 0.069 0.000 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.075 -0.111 4.093 0.084 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.088 0.224 4.747 0.096 0.020 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.504 0.104 0.007 -0.623 3.622 0.176 0.822 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.176 SERIES 723011 AND 723042 296 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.822 SERIES 723041 AND 723042 278 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.468 0.601 0.396 0.408 0.528 0.518 0.532 0.449 0.548 0.586 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.160 0.155 0.151 0.178 0.185 0.164 0.133 0.161 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.051 0.029 0.017 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.701 0.883 0.842 0.897 0.953 0.958 0.962 0.947 0.964 0.969 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.511 0.458 0.515 0.503 0.474 SDEV 0.132 0.134 0.141 0.125 0.126 SERR 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.958 0.949 0.959 0.957 0.952 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.999 0.049 -0.862 5.205 0.056 -0.125 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.072 -0.024 0.069 105 349 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.51 1.00 1.08 1.59 6.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.125 -0.041 -0.022 -0.034 -0.057 0.003 -0.088 0.112 0.064 0.010 PACF -0.125 -0.058 -0.035 -0.045 -0.072 -0.020 -0.103 0.082 0.076 0.031 95% C.L. 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.098 0.098 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.019 -0.125 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.012 0.003 0.013 0.017 0.093 0.065 0.021 PACF 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.002 0.013 0.017 0.093 0.064 0.019 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.010 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.002 0.013 0.017 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.999 0.049 -0.881 4.938 0.052 0.021 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.021 0.082 0.043 0.035 -0.101 0.113 -0.086 0.090 0.059 0.028 PACF 0.021 0.081 0.040 0.028 -0.110 0.112 -0.080 0.089 0.063 0.001 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES