RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ID008W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ID008W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 723 1 Galena Pass, Sawtooth NF WIDTH_RING PCEN - 723 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2580 4352-11443 1530 1983 723 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 9 723061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1703 1703 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 723062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1801 1803 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 723111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1710 1712 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 0.647 0.577 1.349 3.786 0.195 0.945 2 723012 1530 1983 454 0.624 0.443 1.597 4.761 0.172 0.950 3 723031 1690 1983 294 0.630 0.207 0.615 3.173 0.192 0.739 4 723032 1677 1983 307 0.798 0.215 0.350 3.085 0.183 0.653 5 723041 1706 1983 278 0.783 0.206 0.148 2.442 0.167 0.712 6 723042 1688 1983 296 0.894 0.243 0.278 2.772 0.152 0.758 7 723051 1621 1983 363 0.668 0.323 0.860 3.054 0.207 0.837 8 723052 1611 1983 373 0.720 0.325 0.746 3.058 0.194 0.843 9 723061 1681 1983 303 0.732 0.261 0.803 3.572 0.171 0.798 10 723062 1681 1983 303 0.787 0.296 0.942 4.367 0.173 0.810 11 723071 1630 1983 354 0.760 0.271 0.849 3.805 0.158 0.834 12 723072 1654 1983 330 0.825 0.268 0.676 3.165 0.152 0.817 13 723081 1677 1983 307 0.569 0.183 1.304 4.960 0.141 0.840 14 723082 1710 1983 274 0.747 0.341 0.683 2.547 0.163 0.878 15 723091 1655 1983 329 0.796 0.345 0.289 2.538 0.171 0.874 16 723092 1627 1983 357 0.713 0.286 -0.090 2.046 0.184 0.836 17 723101 1661 1983 323 0.756 0.301 0.324 2.031 0.161 0.886 18 723102 1662 1983 322 0.871 0.325 0.586 2.792 0.153 0.875 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.065 0.457 1.312 4.464 0.143 0.910 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.095 0.422 0.836 3.033 0.141 0.904 21 723121 1600 1983 384 0.883 0.468 1.222 4.766 0.222 0.862 22 723122 1601 1983 383 0.859 0.474 1.401 4.804 0.221 0.858 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1530 TO 1983 454 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 0.783 0.329 0.776 3.410 0.173 0.837 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.130 0.104 0.452 0.925 0.024 0.072 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 0.771 0.312 0.774 3.125 0.171 0.842 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 61 0.146 0.160 0.871 1.595 0.040 0.068 MINIMUM VALUE 274 0.569 0.183 -0.090 2.031 0.141 0.653 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 302 0.713 0.261 0.350 2.772 0.153 0.810 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 0.859 0.422 1.222 4.367 0.192 0.878 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.095 0.577 1.597 4.960 0.222 0.950 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.597 0.198 0.013 -0.882 3.178 -0.003 0.903 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.003 SERIES 723012 AND 723081 307 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.903 SERIES 723011 AND 723012 452 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.698 0.914 0.699 0.501 0.201 0.522 0.567 0.612 0.507 0.605 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.142 0.204 0.379 0.229 0.167 0.153 0.183 0.174 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.045 0.039 0.043 0.017 0.011 0.010 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.860 0.981 0.950 0.927 0.820 0.959 0.966 0.972 0.958 0.971 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.627 0.487 0.526 0.493 0.507 SDEV 0.160 0.227 0.184 0.215 0.217 SERR 0.011 0.015 0.012 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.974 0.954 0.961 0.955 0.958 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.931 0.408 0.952 3.220 0.148 0.897 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.447 0.137 0.138 117 337 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.43 1.00 1.07 1.51 28.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 326. 60. 274. 303. 363. 454. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.895 0.862 0.860 0.825 0.802 0.788 0.770 0.755 0.760 0.746 PACF 0.895 0.307 0.280 0.005 0.027 0.040 0.027 0.039 0.131 0.013 95% C.L. 0.094 0.151 0.190 0.221 0.247 0.269 0.289 0.306 0.322 0.338 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.838 0.524 0.133 0.292 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 723011 1 2.07250071 0.00733317 0.00000000 0.04639859 2 723012 1 1.59559929 0.01006415 0.00000000 0.27976519 3 723031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00173695 0.88637090 4 723032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00119135 0.98122054 5 723041 1 0.14682961 0.00205567 0.00000000 0.67093277 6 723042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00066248 0.99266905 7 723051 1 0.99810255 0.00513055 0.00000000 0.21667561 8 723052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00217602 1.12675560 9 723061 1 0.63055402 0.00865470 0.00000000 0.50936031 10 723062 1 1.00750661 0.00318081 0.00000000 0.14211300 11 723071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00075365 0.89343399 12 723072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00139614 1.05597067 13 723081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027936 0.52629495 14 723082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00291312 1.14785278 15 723091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00314338 1.31431055 16 723092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00232316 1.12878621 17 723101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00245573 1.15364826 18 723102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00227499 1.23868346 19 723111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00319411 1.57641101 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 723112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00298741 1.58950758 21 723121 1 1.49680042 0.00706120 0.00000000 0.36999950 22 723122 1 1.40557051 0.00640769 0.00000000 0.33723018 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.022 0.336 0.953 4.062 0.194 0.721 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.003 0.290 0.268 2.668 0.171 0.707 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.221 0.095 3.148 0.192 0.440 4 723032 1677 1983 307 0.999 0.228 0.043 2.991 0.182 0.534 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.262 0.162 2.437 0.167 0.709 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.260 0.169 2.813 0.151 0.737 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.001 0.330 0.612 3.142 0.207 0.688 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.007 0.325 0.853 4.020 0.193 0.708 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.275 0.210 2.687 0.170 0.704 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.287 0.273 2.600 0.172 0.726 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.342 0.864 3.975 0.157 0.826 12 723072 1654 1983 330 0.999 0.282 0.802 3.413 0.151 0.762 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.315 1.140 4.296 0.140 0.831 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.010 0.378 1.991 11.612 0.163 0.790 15 723091 1655 1983 329 0.997 0.213 0.216 2.817 0.170 0.504 16 723092 1627 1983 357 0.989 0.224 0.160 2.791 0.184 0.500 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.009 0.294 0.541 3.277 0.161 0.778 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.002 0.280 0.178 2.611 0.152 0.781 19 723111 1666 1983 318 0.997 0.282 1.110 4.120 0.142 0.798 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 0.998 0.252 0.389 3.118 0.140 0.765 21 723121 1600 1983 384 0.999 0.293 0.288 3.587 0.221 0.582 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.001 0.324 0.555 3.532 0.220 0.655 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.002 0.286 0.540 3.623 0.173 0.693 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.006 0.043 0.472 1.872 0.024 0.112 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.285 0.339 3.145 0.170 0.715 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.003 0.064 0.676 1.184 0.040 0.123 MINIMUM VALUE 274 0.989 0.213 0.043 2.437 0.140 0.440 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 0.999 0.260 0.178 2.791 0.152 0.655 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.002 0.324 0.853 3.975 0.192 0.778 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.022 0.378 1.991 11.612 0.221 0.831 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 723011 -67 302 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 723012 -67 304 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 723031 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 723032 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 723041 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 723042 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 723051 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 723052 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 723061 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 723062 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 723071 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 723072 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 723081 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 723082 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 723091 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 723092 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 723101 -67 216 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 723102 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 723111 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 723112 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 723121 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 723122 -67 256 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 0.994 0.264 0.282 3.142 0.194 0.578 2 723012 1530 1983 454 0.995 0.250 -0.071 2.452 0.171 0.634 3 723031 1690 1983 294 0.999 0.211 -0.023 3.144 0.192 0.387 4 723032 1677 1983 307 0.999 0.223 0.075 2.979 0.182 0.511 5 723041 1706 1983 278 0.994 0.216 0.098 2.855 0.167 0.576 6 723042 1688 1983 296 0.997 0.206 -0.137 2.904 0.151 0.587 7 723051 1621 1983 363 0.995 0.305 0.678 3.452 0.207 0.623 8 723052 1611 1983 373 0.996 0.294 0.890 4.400 0.193 0.644 9 723061 1681 1983 303 0.995 0.241 0.139 2.683 0.170 0.603 10 723062 1681 1983 303 0.994 0.249 0.399 3.716 0.173 0.623 11 723071 1630 1983 354 0.988 0.266 0.670 3.693 0.157 0.710 12 723072 1654 1983 330 0.995 0.250 0.800 3.896 0.151 0.705 13 723081 1677 1983 307 0.992 0.258 0.994 4.140 0.140 0.754 14 723082 1710 1983 274 0.990 0.299 1.772 11.242 0.163 0.705 15 723091 1655 1983 329 0.999 0.208 0.218 2.836 0.170 0.480 16 723092 1627 1983 357 0.999 0.203 0.282 2.946 0.184 0.378 17 723101 1661 1983 323 0.993 0.217 0.031 3.118 0.161 0.605 18 723102 1662 1983 322 0.990 0.211 0.028 2.838 0.152 0.618 19 723111 1666 1983 318 0.993 0.222 0.767 3.502 0.142 0.690 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 0.993 0.202 0.176 2.622 0.140 0.638 21 723121 1600 1983 384 0.998 0.282 0.165 3.273 0.221 0.555 22 723122 1601 1983 383 0.998 0.315 0.495 3.281 0.220 0.636 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 0.995 0.245 0.397 3.596 0.173 0.602 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.003 0.036 0.454 1.779 0.024 0.096 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 0.995 0.245 0.250 3.143 0.170 0.620 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.005 0.055 0.603 0.838 0.040 0.069 MINIMUM VALUE 274 0.988 0.202 -0.137 2.452 0.140 0.378 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 0.993 0.211 0.075 2.855 0.152 0.576 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 0.998 0.266 0.678 3.693 0.192 0.644 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 0.999 0.315 1.772 11.242 0.221 0.754 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.498 0.106 0.007 0.148 3.003 0.240 0.784 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.240 SERIES 723102 AND 723122 322 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.784 SERIES 723031 AND 723032 294 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.640 0.896 0.684 0.477 0.250 0.572 0.588 0.576 0.531 0.533 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.140 0.228 0.274 0.186 0.146 0.128 0.154 0.168 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.044 0.043 0.031 0.014 0.010 0.008 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.825 0.977 0.946 0.920 0.858 0.966 0.969 0.968 0.961 0.962 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.573 0.533 0.525 0.523 0.555 SDEV 0.163 0.210 0.175 0.189 0.166 SERR 0.011 0.014 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.967 0.962 0.961 0.960 0.965 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.995 0.186 -0.033 2.794 0.143 0.541 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.177 0.071 0.095 110 344 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.67 1.00 1.10 1.77 14.40 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.539 0.402 0.378 0.339 0.287 0.256 0.181 0.191 0.200 0.143 PACF 0.539 0.156 0.160 0.085 0.032 0.031 -0.053 0.055 0.050 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.094 0.118 0.130 0.139 0.146 0.151 0.155 0.157 0.159 0.161 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.337 0.416 0.080 0.124 0.087 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.517 0.394 0.362 0.349 0.291 0.240 0.172 0.206 0.175 0.055 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.517 2 0.428 0.173 3 0.402 0.110 0.147 4 0.384 0.097 0.098 0.121 5 0.381 0.094 0.095 0.110 0.029 6 0.381 0.094 0.095 0.110 0.027 0.004 7 0.381 0.095 0.100 0.114 0.032 0.022 -0.047 8 0.385 0.093 0.097 0.105 0.024 0.015 -0.077 0.078 9 0.384 0.093 0.097 0.105 0.024 0.015 -0.077 0.077 0.003 10 0.385 0.103 0.087 0.107 0.027 0.029 -0.064 0.089 0.053 -0.132 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3845.72 3706.43 3694.62 3686.73 3682.00 3683.62 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3685.61 3686.60 3685.85 3687.85 3681.93 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.384 0.097 0.098 0.121 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 31.49 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 145.97 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.384 0.245 0.229 0.271 0.197 0.154 0.133 0.118 0.097 0.0805 0.068 0.058 0.049 0.041 0.034 0.029 0.024 0.020 0.017 0.0145 0.012 0.010 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.0026 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 723011 4 0.393 0.422 0.089 0.106 0.134 2 723012 4 0.453 0.468 0.095 0.106 0.113 3 723031 4 0.193 0.290 0.143 0.098 0.049 4 723032 4 0.292 0.417 0.117 0.101 -0.001 5 723041 4 0.350 0.522 0.016 0.025 0.120 6 723042 4 0.370 0.517 0.017 0.035 0.140 7 723051 4 0.436 0.440 0.134 0.127 0.070 8 723052 4 0.444 0.512 0.114 0.036 0.096 9 723061 4 0.401 0.482 0.053 0.097 0.113 10 723062 4 0.431 0.518 0.059 0.059 0.119 11 723071 4 0.573 0.430 0.152 0.190 0.081 12 723072 4 0.519 0.603 0.046 0.152 -0.028 13 723081 4 0.596 0.602 0.071 0.118 0.043 14 723082 4 0.524 0.625 0.001 0.048 0.119 15 723091 4 0.253 0.437 0.016 0.020 0.138 16 723092 4 0.184 0.308 0.052 0.090 0.129 17 723101 4 0.399 0.489 0.112 0.016 0.109 18 723102 4 0.429 0.442 0.159 0.093 0.067 19 723111 4 0.521 0.498 0.192 -0.003 0.121 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 723112 4 0.448 0.487 0.138 0.109 0.018 21 723121 4 0.331 0.456 0.137 0.013 0.058 22 723122 4 0.428 0.524 0.104 0.058 0.046 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.408 0.477 0.092 0.077 0.084 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.110 0.082 0.054 0.050 0.048 MEDIAN 4 0.429 0.484 0.100 0.091 0.103 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.103 0.080 0.085 0.071 0.071 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.184 0.290 0.001 -0.003 -0.028 LOWER HINGE 4 0.350 0.437 0.052 0.035 0.049 UPPER HINGE 4 0.453 0.518 0.137 0.106 0.120 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.596 0.625 0.192 0.190 0.140 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.000 0.207 0.226 4.393 0.226 -0.014 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.185 0.080 3.631 0.206 -0.011 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.189 -0.250 3.463 0.216 -0.003 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.188 -0.032 3.051 0.215 -0.001 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.174 -0.277 3.458 0.201 -0.002 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.163 -0.431 3.850 0.185 0.000 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.229 0.310 3.630 0.242 0.000 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.219 0.540 5.374 0.230 0.000 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.186 -0.203 3.466 0.203 -0.002 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.186 -0.122 3.546 0.211 -0.015 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.174 0.043 4.769 0.185 -0.007 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.173 -0.395 4.312 0.192 0.000 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.164 0.250 4.140 0.179 0.005 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.207 0.971 9.421 0.210 0.013 15 723091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.180 0.164 2.991 0.202 -0.004 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.184 0.057 2.787 0.209 -0.009 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.169 -0.313 3.545 0.192 -0.008 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.159 -0.474 3.857 0.177 0.001 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.154 0.113 3.371 0.171 -0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.150 -0.066 2.939 0.168 -0.003 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.231 -0.210 4.365 0.264 0.001 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.238 0.134 3.815 0.269 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.187 0.005 4.008 0.207 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.025 0.340 1.359 0.027 0.006 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.184 0.006 3.630 0.204 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.038 0.414 0.853 0.031 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 274 1.000 0.150 -0.474 2.787 0.168 -0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.169 -0.250 3.458 0.185 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.207 0.164 4.312 0.216 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.238 0.971 9.421 0.269 0.013 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.588 0.061 0.004 0.431 4.363 0.421 0.823 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.421 SERIES 723071 AND 723121 354 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.823 SERIES 723031 AND 723032 294 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.718 0.830 0.695 0.527 0.381 0.557 0.612 0.627 0.629 0.676 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.106 0.192 0.179 0.111 0.089 0.085 0.089 0.092 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.036 0.020 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 EPS 0.871 0.961 0.949 0.934 0.918 0.964 0.972 0.974 0.974 0.979 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.721 0.686 0.601 0.595 0.528 SDEV 0.080 0.085 0.101 0.100 0.105 SERR 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.983 0.980 0.971 0.970 0.961 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.149 -0.140 3.912 0.166 -0.041 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.117 0.042 0.075 130 324 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.54 1.00 1.07 1.61 16.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.041 -0.051 0.014 -0.028 -0.020 0.049 -0.063 0.011 0.066 -0.023 PACF -0.041 -0.053 0.010 -0.030 -0.021 0.044 -0.061 0.011 0.059 -0.014 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.001 -0.003 0.002 -0.020 0.041 -0.056 0.013 0.063 -0.013 PACF -0.001 0.001 -0.003 0.002 -0.020 0.041 -0.057 0.013 0.064 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.000 -0.001 0.001 -0.003 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.180 -0.016 2.903 0.142 0.518 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.517 0.395 0.359 0.349 0.268 0.239 0.170 0.180 0.178 0.122 PACF 0.517 0.175 0.141 0.123 -0.003 0.030 -0.048 0.046 0.041 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.094 0.116 0.128 0.136 0.144 0.148 0.152 0.153 0.155 0.157 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.318 0.384 0.102 0.092 0.126 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES