RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ID008X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ID008X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 723 1 Galena Pass, Sawtooth NF DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCEN - 723 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2580 4352-11443 1530 1983 723 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 9 723061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1703 1703 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 723062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1801 1803 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 723111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1710 1712 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 0.640 0.109 0.189 1.725 0.055 0.921 2 723012 1530 1983 454 0.634 0.089 0.244 2.327 0.064 0.821 3 723031 1690 1983 294 0.559 0.076 -0.109 2.333 0.093 0.616 4 723032 1677 1983 307 0.563 0.076 0.157 2.945 0.096 0.582 5 723041 1706 1983 278 0.685 0.065 -0.605 4.168 0.095 0.201 6 723042 1688 1983 296 0.696 0.073 -0.520 3.099 0.099 0.282 7 723051 1621 1983 363 0.596 0.068 0.080 2.312 0.078 0.624 8 723052 1611 1983 373 0.623 0.062 -0.243 2.528 0.080 0.488 9 723061 1681 1983 303 0.629 0.071 -0.348 2.785 0.065 0.717 10 723062 1681 1983 303 0.611 0.093 0.337 2.332 0.072 0.827 11 723071 1630 1983 354 0.631 0.055 -0.007 3.000 0.066 0.531 12 723072 1654 1983 330 0.625 0.064 0.361 3.809 0.072 0.615 13 723081 1677 1983 307 0.617 0.068 -0.046 2.915 0.076 0.603 14 723082 1710 1983 274 0.629 0.081 -0.236 2.545 0.078 0.714 15 723091 1655 1983 329 0.566 0.095 -0.240 1.929 0.076 0.829 16 723092 1627 1983 357 0.631 0.069 -0.327 2.575 0.074 0.636 17 723101 1661 1983 323 0.652 0.051 -0.486 2.978 0.065 0.424 18 723102 1662 1983 322 0.698 0.055 -0.175 2.994 0.067 0.375 19 723111 1666 1983 318 0.608 0.060 -0.323 3.303 0.076 0.492 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 0.652 0.057 -0.520 3.151 0.085 0.244 21 723121 1600 1983 384 0.596 0.072 0.075 2.620 0.085 0.607 22 723122 1601 1983 383 0.654 0.059 -0.161 3.240 0.087 0.273 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1530 TO 1983 454 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 0.627 0.071 -0.132 2.801 0.077 0.565 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.038 0.015 0.286 0.566 0.012 0.203 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 0.629 0.069 -0.168 2.850 0.076 0.605 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 61 0.044 0.016 0.407 0.766 0.018 0.289 MINIMUM VALUE 274 0.559 0.051 -0.605 1.725 0.055 0.201 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 302 0.608 0.060 -0.327 2.333 0.067 0.424 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 0.652 0.076 0.080 3.099 0.085 0.714 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 0.698 0.109 0.361 4.168 0.099 0.921 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.478 0.174 0.011 -0.925 4.964 -0.256 0.817 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.256 SERIES 723011 AND 723042 296 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.817 SERIES 723041 AND 723042 278 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.293 0.504 0.341 0.510 0.515 0.477 0.504 0.436 0.541 0.556 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.165 0.159 0.147 0.222 0.229 0.192 0.165 0.186 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.052 0.030 0.017 0.016 0.015 0.013 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.525 0.835 0.808 0.930 0.951 0.951 0.957 0.944 0.963 0.965 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.451 0.439 0.460 0.441 0.386 SDEV 0.164 0.173 0.173 0.181 0.174 SERR 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.948 0.945 0.949 0.945 0.933 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.653 0.068 0.115 2.410 0.058 0.746 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.633 -0.194 0.183 103 351 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.38 1.00 1.06 1.44 10.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 326. 60. 274. 303. 363. 454. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.745 0.755 0.745 0.728 0.703 0.727 0.678 0.729 0.703 0.689 PACF 0.745 0.450 0.284 0.168 0.070 0.166 -0.007 0.193 0.074 0.018 95% C.L. 0.094 0.136 0.169 0.196 0.218 0.238 0.256 0.272 0.288 0.303 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.711 0.164 0.214 0.179 0.126 0.060 0.201 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 723011 1 0.51263601 0.00197108 0.00000000 0.30083239 2 723012 1 0.38744688 0.00264281 0.00000000 0.40877330 3 723031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00062582 0.65104944 4 723032 1 0.23152292 0.00515440 0.00000000 0.44678205 5 723041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009980 0.67143732 6 723042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012173 0.67786968 7 723051 1 0.14611737 0.03604937 0.00000000 0.58542556 8 723052 1 0.17653269 0.00336759 0.00000000 0.52294749 9 723061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063645 0.72615796 10 723062 1 0.38696736 0.00421763 0.00000000 0.39321253 11 723071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027228 0.67957348 12 723072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029619 0.67368686 13 723081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017847 0.64419490 14 723082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00053857 0.70314032 15 723091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00077670 0.69435614 16 723092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044802 0.71117586 17 723101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015136 0.67650098 18 723102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000850 0.69710571 19 723111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030803 0.65707058 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 723112 1 0.12562232 0.00356336 0.00000000 0.57796937 21 723121 1 0.16144517 0.01011034 0.00000000 0.55510670 22 723122 1 0.11769406 0.01915913 0.00000000 0.63838106 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.000 0.106 0.272 2.879 0.055 0.772 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.070 -0.554 3.976 0.064 0.273 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.099 0.055 3.125 0.093 0.256 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.100 -0.152 3.227 0.096 0.224 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.094 -0.643 4.291 0.094 0.189 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.105 -0.438 3.028 0.099 0.274 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.105 0.100 2.578 0.078 0.553 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.081 -0.255 3.433 0.080 0.221 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.073 -0.806 5.056 0.065 0.310 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.081 0.139 3.571 0.072 0.334 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.075 -0.159 2.705 0.065 0.356 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.092 0.228 2.888 0.072 0.512 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.107 -0.177 2.733 0.076 0.570 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.111 -0.167 2.713 0.078 0.602 15 723091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.106 -0.190 2.828 0.075 0.584 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.082 -0.158 2.861 0.073 0.343 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.075 -0.340 2.937 0.064 0.380 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.078 -0.172 3.007 0.067 0.374 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.086 -0.502 3.647 0.076 0.349 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.080 -0.608 3.884 0.085 0.077 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.100 -0.088 3.057 0.085 0.422 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.081 -0.585 3.608 0.087 0.084 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.090 -0.236 3.274 0.077 0.366 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.013 0.296 0.611 0.012 0.175 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.089 -0.174 3.043 0.076 0.346 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.025 0.414 0.746 0.018 0.257 MINIMUM VALUE 274 1.000 0.070 -0.806 2.578 0.055 0.077 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.080 -0.502 2.861 0.067 0.256 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.105 -0.088 3.608 0.085 0.512 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.111 0.272 5.056 0.099 0.772 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 723011 -67 302 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 723012 -67 304 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 723031 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 723032 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 723041 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 723042 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 723051 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 723052 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 723061 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 723062 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 723071 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 723072 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 723081 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 723082 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 723091 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 723092 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 723101 -67 216 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 723102 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 723111 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 723112 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 723121 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 723122 -67 256 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 0.999 0.075 0.132 3.476 0.055 0.555 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.069 -0.601 4.060 0.064 0.248 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.097 -0.008 3.155 0.093 0.227 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.099 -0.161 3.259 0.096 0.211 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.089 -0.733 4.813 0.094 0.100 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.090 -0.712 3.863 0.099 0.039 7 723051 1621 1983 363 0.999 0.096 0.016 2.650 0.078 0.464 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.080 -0.274 3.403 0.080 0.192 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.071 -0.785 4.948 0.065 0.265 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.077 0.076 3.313 0.072 0.285 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.071 -0.106 2.884 0.065 0.287 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.087 0.542 3.925 0.072 0.455 13 723081 1677 1983 307 0.999 0.084 -0.484 3.286 0.076 0.310 14 723082 1710 1983 274 0.999 0.093 -0.188 2.983 0.078 0.440 15 723091 1655 1983 329 0.999 0.086 -0.377 3.300 0.075 0.360 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.074 -0.319 3.330 0.073 0.189 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.070 -0.353 3.103 0.064 0.288 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.068 -0.502 3.767 0.067 0.176 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.083 -0.470 3.876 0.076 0.305 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.079 -0.615 3.924 0.085 0.067 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.092 -0.246 3.206 0.085 0.312 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.080 -0.561 3.537 0.087 0.062 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.082 -0.306 3.548 0.077 0.265 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.010 0.328 0.566 0.012 0.136 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.082 -0.336 3.367 0.076 0.275 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.016 0.455 0.670 0.018 0.123 MINIMUM VALUE 274 0.999 0.068 -0.785 2.650 0.055 0.039 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.074 -0.561 3.206 0.067 0.189 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.090 -0.106 3.876 0.085 0.312 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.099 0.542 4.948 0.099 0.555 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.454 0.123 0.008 -0.341 3.178 0.120 0.833 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.120 SERIES 723011 AND 723071 354 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.833 SERIES 723041 AND 723042 278 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.373 0.600 0.428 0.429 0.498 0.532 0.538 0.440 0.529 0.567 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.161 0.157 0.150 0.174 0.199 0.187 0.167 0.188 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.051 0.030 0.017 0.013 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.613 0.882 0.858 0.905 0.947 0.960 0.962 0.945 0.961 0.966 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.459 0.427 0.467 0.442 0.415 SDEV 0.168 0.162 0.162 0.168 0.169 SERR 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.949 0.943 0.951 0.946 0.940 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.999 0.055 -0.804 4.665 0.057 0.062 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.023 -0.008 0.064 103 351 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.24 1.00 1.05 1.29 3.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.061 0.112 0.090 0.094 -0.033 0.119 -0.065 0.137 0.101 0.048 PACF 0.061 0.109 0.079 0.074 -0.061 0.102 -0.083 0.130 0.094 0.006 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.099 0.100 0.101 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.031 0.040 0.097 0.075 0.075 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.007 0.080 0.041 0.061 -0.098 0.107 -0.119 0.072 0.092 0.026 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.007 2 0.006 0.080 3 0.003 0.080 0.040 4 0.001 0.075 0.040 0.055 5 0.007 0.080 0.048 0.055 -0.106 6 0.017 0.074 0.043 0.047 -0.106 0.099 7 0.029 0.062 0.049 0.052 -0.098 0.101 -0.114 8 0.037 0.055 0.055 0.048 -0.101 0.097 -0.116 0.070 9 0.029 0.068 0.045 0.060 -0.107 0.090 -0.122 0.066 0.111 10 0.029 0.068 0.045 0.060 -0.107 0.090 -0.123 0.066 0.111 0.001 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2819.53 2821.50 2820.59 2821.86 2822.49 2819.38 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2816.92 2812.94 2812.71 2809.05 2811.05 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 9 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.029 0.068 0.045 0.060 -0.107 0.090 -0.122 0.066 0.111 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.08 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.47 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 9) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.029 0.069 0.049 0.067 -0.097 0.095 -0.125 0.066 0.094 0.0255 -0.014 0.053 -0.022 0.011 0.000 -0.014 0.002 0.021 -0.008 0.0060 0.005 -0.002 0.001 0.002 -0.005 0.002 0.002 -0.001 0.001 0.0012 -0.001 0.001 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 723011 9 0.372 0.386 0.112 0.152 0.034 -0.017 0.083 -0.019 0.059 -0.025 2 723012 9 0.086 0.214 0.056 0.064 -0.004 -0.008 0.068 0.028 0.067 0.008 3 723031 9 0.105 0.193 0.073 0.059 0.117 -0.079 -0.007 -0.068 0.104 0.102 4 723032 9 0.137 0.202 0.085 -0.009 0.102 -0.035 0.099 -0.170 0.142 0.128 5 723041 9 0.074 0.088 0.110 0.038 0.035 -0.059 0.034 -0.120 0.111 0.133 6 723042 9 0.062 0.056 0.007 -0.029 0.053 -0.005 0.087 -0.133 0.134 0.090 7 723051 9 0.368 0.235 0.215 0.087 0.039 -0.061 0.157 -0.054 0.127 0.081 8 723052 9 0.113 0.150 0.169 0.059 0.049 -0.010 0.102 -0.099 0.081 0.003 9 723061 9 0.177 0.237 0.175 -0.001 0.078 -0.096 0.138 -0.160 -0.013 0.182 10 723062 9 0.149 0.269 0.114 0.005 0.003 -0.065 0.205 -0.086 -0.012 0.100 11 723071 9 0.167 0.248 0.128 0.081 0.057 -0.067 0.153 -0.157 0.073 0.038 12 723072 9 0.306 0.347 0.209 0.123 0.003 -0.112 0.165 -0.170 -0.016 0.055 13 723081 9 0.194 0.218 0.165 0.127 0.058 -0.115 0.055 -0.078 0.156 0.062 14 723082 9 0.280 0.286 0.181 0.160 0.001 -0.061 0.035 -0.036 0.057 0.104 15 723091 9 0.234 0.239 0.193 0.042 0.017 -0.012 0.164 -0.080 0.023 0.128 16 723092 9 0.086 0.181 0.112 -0.007 0.135 -0.105 0.022 -0.064 0.045 0.060 17 723101 9 0.189 0.218 0.104 0.171 0.092 -0.093 0.186 -0.087 -0.014 -0.001 18 723102 9 0.125 0.108 0.087 0.184 0.057 -0.060 0.060 -0.027 0.091 0.095 19 723111 9 0.179 0.236 0.103 0.066 0.158 -0.029 0.058 -0.138 0.092 0.075 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 723112 9 0.041 0.081 -0.045 0.019 0.113 -0.060 0.023 -0.076 0.103 0.035 21 723121 9 0.211 0.162 0.212 0.157 0.082 -0.028 0.073 -0.051 0.008 0.049 22 723122 9 0.045 0.053 0.116 0.074 0.005 -0.015 0.087 -0.075 0.030 0.031 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 9 0.168 0.200 0.122 0.074 0.058 -0.054 0.093 -0.087 0.066 0.070 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.097 0.087 0.066 0.065 0.047 0.036 0.059 0.052 0.054 0.051 MEDIAN 9 0.158 0.216 0.113 0.065 0.055 -0.060 0.085 -0.079 0.070 0.069 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.125 0.089 0.088 0.108 0.075 0.062 0.098 0.080 0.081 0.067 MINIMUM VALUE 9 0.041 0.053 -0.045 -0.029 -0.004 -0.115 -0.007 -0.170 -0.016 -0.025 LOWER HINGE 9 0.086 0.150 0.087 0.019 0.017 -0.079 0.055 -0.133 0.023 0.035 UPPER HINGE 9 0.211 0.239 0.175 0.127 0.092 -0.017 0.153 -0.054 0.104 0.102 MAXIMUM VALUE 9 0.372 0.386 0.215 0.184 0.158 -0.005 0.205 0.028 0.156 0.182 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 723011 1532 1983 452 1.000 0.060 0.027 3.852 0.066 -0.001 2 723012 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.066 -0.703 4.564 0.071 0.001 3 723031 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.091 -0.163 3.512 0.102 0.003 4 723032 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.092 -0.203 3.499 0.103 -0.001 5 723041 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.086 -0.724 5.222 0.096 0.008 6 723042 1688 1983 296 1.000 0.087 -0.621 4.009 0.097 0.006 7 723051 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.076 0.016 3.677 0.084 0.001 8 723052 1611 1983 373 1.000 0.075 -0.311 3.529 0.084 0.000 9 723061 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.064 -0.572 4.317 0.071 -0.016 10 723062 1681 1983 303 1.000 0.071 0.202 3.458 0.079 0.000 11 723071 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.065 -0.121 3.150 0.072 0.002 12 723072 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.072 0.174 3.420 0.080 0.001 13 723081 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.076 -0.676 4.595 0.084 0.000 14 723082 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.079 -0.336 3.463 0.087 0.003 15 723091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.075 -0.579 3.851 0.082 0.002 16 723092 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.070 -0.392 3.501 0.078 0.002 17 723101 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.063 -0.447 3.811 0.070 0.000 18 723102 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.064 -0.640 4.288 0.071 -0.009 19 723111 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.076 -0.465 3.954 0.083 -0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 723112 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.078 -0.572 3.948 0.087 0.001 21 723121 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.081 -0.274 3.729 0.092 -0.001 22 723122 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.079 -0.509 3.346 0.089 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 338 1.000 0.075 -0.359 3.850 0.083 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.009 0.284 0.495 0.011 0.005 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 326 1.000 0.076 -0.419 3.770 0.083 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.000 0.013 0.416 0.509 0.018 0.003 MINIMUM VALUE 274 1.000 0.060 -0.724 3.150 0.066 -0.016 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 303 1.000 0.066 -0.579 3.499 0.072 -0.001 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 363 1.000 0.079 -0.163 4.009 0.089 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.092 0.202 5.222 0.103 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.519 0.106 0.007 -0.669 3.674 0.160 0.831 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.160 SERIES 723011 AND 723112 330 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.831 SERIES 723041 AND 723042 278 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.54 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 1. 1. 10. 28. 78. 190. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.492 0.616 0.417 0.457 0.545 0.539 0.570 0.494 0.568 0.597 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.138 0.148 0.142 0.174 0.175 0.153 0.140 0.155 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.044 0.028 0.016 0.013 0.012 0.010 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.720 0.889 0.853 0.914 0.956 0.961 0.967 0.956 0.967 0.970 NSS 2.7 5.0 8.1 12.7 18.2 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.519 0.482 0.525 0.504 0.458 SDEV 0.121 0.127 0.141 0.138 0.140 SERR 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.960 0.953 0.960 0.957 0.949 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.052 -0.889 5.344 0.060 -0.136 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.145 -0.048 0.094 102 352 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.55 1.00 1.06 1.61 10.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.135 -0.033 -0.004 -0.013 -0.051 0.022 -0.047 0.070 0.006 -0.004 PACF -0.135 -0.052 -0.016 -0.018 -0.058 0.005 -0.049 0.058 0.019 0.002 95% C.L. 0.094 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.021 -0.135 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 -0.006 0.001 -0.001 0.003 -0.002 0.000 PACF 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 -0.006 0.001 -0.001 0.003 -0.002 0.000 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 9 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 -0.006 0.001 -0.001 0.003 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.053 -0.893 4.828 0.057 0.010 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.010 0.077 0.037 0.066 -0.088 0.095 -0.116 0.068 0.095 0.018 PACF 0.010 0.077 0.036 0.060 -0.096 0.088 -0.112 0.066 0.115 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES