RUN: me FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: me025e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: me025e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 395 1 Traveler Mountain ME POR WIDTH_EARLY PCRU - 395 2 United States of America red spruce -999 4603-6851 1728 1976 - 395 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 395011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1941 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 395011 1789 1976 188 0.585 0.369 1.115 3.941 0.263 0.802 2 395012 1781 1976 196 0.672 0.329 0.972 3.862 0.248 0.786 3 395021 1881 1976 96 1.191 0.830 0.370 1.820 0.242 0.912 4 395022 1848 1976 129 1.052 1.050 0.894 2.355 0.277 0.951 5 395031 1784 1976 193 0.333 0.153 0.543 2.820 0.240 0.795 6 395032 1742 1976 235 0.249 0.160 0.875 2.852 0.273 0.889 7 395041 1896 1975 80 0.786 0.643 1.510 4.760 0.370 0.818 8 395042 1887 1976 90 0.773 0.491 0.764 2.984 0.302 0.842 9 395051 1871 1976 106 0.956 0.525 0.117 2.131 0.304 0.809 10 395052 1880 1964 85 1.288 0.612 0.688 3.175 0.259 0.755 11 395061 1795 1937 143 0.888 0.311 0.001 3.031 0.185 0.773 12 395062 1728 1967 240 0.804 0.408 0.567 3.152 0.232 0.853 13 395071 1924 1976 53 1.494 0.703 0.322 2.193 0.273 0.716 14 395072 1928 1976 49 1.596 0.344 0.327 3.122 0.200 0.269 15 395091 1902 1976 75 1.162 0.560 0.371 2.388 0.337 0.563 16 395092 1884 1974 91 0.806 0.521 1.372 3.996 0.239 0.872 17 396101 1930 1976 47 2.127 0.899 0.129 2.729 0.249 0.765 18 396102 1932 1976 45 2.118 0.936 1.153 7.525 0.260 0.588 19 396111 1806 1976 171 0.833 0.309 0.794 3.723 0.217 0.737 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 396112 1813 1976 164 0.847 0.420 0.697 3.374 0.217 0.805 21 396121 1900 1976 77 0.629 0.385 0.733 2.782 0.294 0.796 22 396122 1859 1976 118 0.569 0.506 2.078 7.457 0.243 0.871 23 396131 1848 1976 129 0.565 0.313 0.512 2.553 0.286 0.778 24 396132 1851 1976 126 0.528 0.311 1.360 5.108 0.298 0.769 25 396141 1880 1976 97 0.600 0.370 0.947 3.179 0.263 0.862 26 396142 1856 1976 121 0.785 0.461 1.006 4.173 0.308 0.843 27 396151 1899 1976 78 1.261 0.494 0.354 2.666 0.239 0.728 28 396152 1890 1976 87 0.964 0.379 0.787 3.937 0.245 0.710 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1728 TO 1976 249 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 0.945 0.493 0.763 3.493 0.263 0.773 STANDARD DEVIATION 54 0.460 0.223 0.467 1.372 0.040 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 101 0.820 0.440 0.749 3.137 0.260 0.795 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.562 0.250 0.619 1.241 0.050 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 45 0.249 0.153 0.001 1.820 0.185 0.269 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.615 0.336 0.370 2.698 0.239 0.746 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 153 1.177 0.586 0.989 3.939 0.290 0.848 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 2.127 1.050 2.078 7.525 0.370 0.951 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 374 0.277 0.294 0.015 -0.449 2.855 -0.607 0.921 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.607 SERIES 395021 AND 395062 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.921 SERIES 395021 AND 395022 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.94 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 33.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 1. 15. 28. 55. 120. 253. RBAR 0.792 0.787 0.391 0.404 0.615 0.233 0.333 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.190 0.282 0.142 0.398 0.300 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.049 0.053 0.019 0.036 0.019 EPS 0.929 0.959 0.840 0.881 0.964 0.871 0.928 NSS 3.4 6.2 8.2 10.9 16.6 22.2 25.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1728 1976 249 0.597 0.279 0.838 3.544 0.229 0.841 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.812 0.571 0.056 47 202 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 1.00 1.00 1.16 2.17 18.62 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.17 0.00 0.83 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 102. 74. 45. 79. 154. 240. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.837 0.772 0.704 0.670 0.615 0.558 0.511 0.497 0.445 0.439 PACF 0.837 0.238 0.043 0.104 -0.019 -0.047 0.000 0.097 -0.074 0.101 95% C.L. 0.127 0.196 0.240 0.271 0.297 0.317 0.332 0.344 0.356 0.365 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.723 0.647 0.231 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 395011 1 0.95769018 0.09256412 0.00000000 0.53021002 2 395012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00234309 0.44094035 3 395021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02029951 0.20609868 4 395022 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 395031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00096474 0.23958063 6 395032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00128771 0.09690125 7 395041 1 2.35068679 0.07385743 0.00000000 0.40408516 8 395042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00812051 1.14259422 9 395051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00344238 1.14020491 10 395052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00825796 1.64332771 11 395061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00214333 1.04229188 12 395062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048825 0.74545747 13 395071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02208192 2.08998537 14 395072 1 1.50758755 0.64863014 0.00000000 1.56180835 15 395091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00847169 0.84047568 16 395092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00733015 0.46929669 17 396101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04684320 3.25168371 18 396102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05173913 3.30800009 19 396111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00120892 0.72913241 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 396112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00410551 1.18528950 21 396121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00427362 0.46254957 22 396122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00714888 0.14362451 23 396131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00588663 0.18271802 24 396132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00278947 0.35096380 25 396141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00280507 0.46265465 26 396142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00532157 0.46009505 27 396151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048167 1.27992344 28 396152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00187596 1.04702485 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 395011 1789 1976 188 0.999 0.612 1.371 5.402 0.264 0.812 2 395012 1781 1976 196 0.996 0.430 0.863 3.954 0.247 0.723 3 395021 1881 1976 96 0.957 0.471 0.624 2.471 0.241 0.806 4 395022 1848 1976 129 1.008 0.400 0.264 2.694 0.274 0.636 5 395031 1784 1976 193 0.998 0.435 0.538 2.767 0.239 0.749 6 395032 1742 1976 235 1.022 0.579 1.070 4.810 0.272 0.811 7 395041 1896 1975 80 0.995 0.542 0.843 3.639 0.365 0.750 8 395042 1887 1976 90 0.983 0.598 0.933 3.182 0.299 0.825 9 395051 1871 1976 106 0.996 0.538 0.154 2.215 0.301 0.798 10 395052 1880 1964 85 0.993 0.460 1.058 3.902 0.256 0.728 11 395061 1795 1937 143 0.999 0.333 -0.041 3.567 0.184 0.754 12 395062 1728 1967 240 1.000 0.499 0.494 3.006 0.232 0.843 13 395071 1924 1976 53 0.990 0.410 0.385 1.910 0.267 0.695 14 395072 1928 1976 49 1.000 0.202 0.223 3.108 0.193 0.252 15 395091 1902 1976 75 1.002 0.470 0.444 2.526 0.332 0.436 16 395092 1884 1974 91 0.996 0.528 0.630 2.861 0.237 0.818 17 396101 1930 1976 47 0.990 0.304 0.397 2.953 0.244 0.525 18 396102 1932 1976 45 0.989 0.299 0.527 3.492 0.251 0.377 19 396111 1806 1976 171 1.000 0.363 0.736 3.416 0.216 0.725 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 396112 1813 1976 164 0.992 0.434 0.394 2.383 0.215 0.777 21 396121 1900 1976 77 0.993 0.578 0.545 2.429 0.289 0.768 22 396122 1859 1976 118 0.936 0.666 2.361 9.268 0.241 0.840 23 396131 1848 1976 129 0.982 0.368 0.251 2.812 0.285 0.594 24 396132 1851 1976 126 0.989 0.549 1.380 5.028 0.295 0.726 25 396141 1880 1976 97 0.995 0.600 1.070 3.587 0.260 0.848 26 396142 1856 1976 121 0.983 0.526 0.981 4.015 0.305 0.778 27 396151 1899 1976 78 1.000 0.391 0.350 2.643 0.236 0.719 28 396152 1890 1976 87 1.000 0.390 0.807 4.039 0.242 0.698 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 0.992 0.463 0.702 3.503 0.260 0.707 STANDARD DEVIATION 54 0.015 0.111 0.485 1.415 0.040 0.147 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 101 0.995 0.465 0.584 3.145 0.254 0.749 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.010 0.154 0.568 1.260 0.049 0.112 MINIMUM VALUE 45 0.936 0.202 -0.041 1.910 0.184 0.252 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.989 0.391 0.389 2.669 0.238 0.696 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 153 1.000 0.545 0.957 3.928 0.287 0.808 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 1.022 0.666 2.361 9.268 0.365 0.848 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 395011 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 395012 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 395021 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 395022 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 395031 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 395032 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 395041 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 395042 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 395051 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 395052 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 395061 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 395062 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 395071 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 395072 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 395091 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 395092 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 396101 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 396102 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 396111 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 396112 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 396121 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 396122 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 396131 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 396132 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 396141 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 396142 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 396151 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 396152 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 395011 1789 1976 188 0.971 0.413 0.577 4.112 0.264 0.659 2 395012 1781 1976 196 0.996 0.398 0.601 3.661 0.247 0.679 3 395021 1881 1976 96 0.969 0.281 0.331 3.798 0.239 0.441 4 395022 1848 1976 129 0.990 0.353 0.291 2.752 0.273 0.583 5 395031 1784 1976 193 0.985 0.354 0.304 3.153 0.238 0.609 6 395032 1742 1976 235 0.986 0.490 0.543 2.400 0.272 0.806 7 395041 1896 1975 80 0.990 0.466 0.418 3.440 0.364 0.654 8 395042 1887 1976 90 0.989 0.498 0.861 3.152 0.299 0.724 9 395051 1871 1976 106 0.980 0.369 0.665 5.571 0.301 0.481 10 395052 1880 1964 85 0.990 0.289 0.143 2.922 0.253 0.432 11 395061 1795 1937 143 0.993 0.301 -0.315 3.643 0.183 0.706 12 395062 1728 1967 240 0.979 0.359 0.328 2.733 0.231 0.693 13 395071 1924 1976 53 0.992 0.310 0.445 2.520 0.263 0.457 14 395072 1928 1976 49 0.998 0.189 0.287 3.450 0.192 0.153 15 395091 1902 1976 75 0.984 0.420 0.781 4.048 0.331 0.204 16 395092 1884 1974 91 0.971 0.437 0.236 2.238 0.233 0.772 17 396101 1930 1976 47 0.997 0.271 0.480 3.016 0.242 0.386 18 396102 1932 1976 45 0.993 0.234 0.817 4.129 0.247 -0.064 19 396111 1806 1976 171 0.992 0.306 0.555 3.373 0.215 0.612 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 396112 1813 1976 164 0.976 0.308 0.251 2.548 0.215 0.624 21 396121 1900 1976 77 0.987 0.448 0.180 2.346 0.285 0.700 22 396122 1859 1976 118 0.982 0.431 1.311 5.436 0.240 0.694 23 396131 1848 1976 129 0.998 0.351 0.221 3.066 0.285 0.473 24 396132 1851 1976 126 0.994 0.387 0.722 3.863 0.295 0.543 25 396141 1880 1976 97 0.990 0.462 1.020 3.592 0.262 0.727 26 396142 1856 1976 121 0.995 0.382 0.353 3.445 0.306 0.450 27 396151 1899 1976 78 0.990 0.323 0.164 3.280 0.235 0.601 28 396152 1890 1976 87 0.994 0.338 0.001 2.933 0.241 0.640 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 0.988 0.363 0.449 3.379 0.259 0.551 STANDARD DEVIATION 54 0.008 0.078 0.330 0.806 0.040 0.199 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 101 0.990 0.357 0.386 3.326 0.250 0.610 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.010 0.118 0.390 0.893 0.049 0.240 MINIMUM VALUE 45 0.969 0.189 -0.315 2.238 0.183 -0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.983 0.307 0.243 2.837 0.236 0.454 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 153 0.993 0.425 0.633 3.730 0.285 0.694 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 0.998 0.498 1.311 5.571 0.364 0.806 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 374 0.335 0.156 0.008 -0.028 2.841 -0.131 0.739 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.131 SERIES 395072 AND 396121 49 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.739 SERIES 395052 AND 396151 66 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.94 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 33.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 1. 15. 28. 55. 120. 253. RBAR 0.717 0.792 0.464 0.483 0.475 0.296 0.432 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.176 0.246 0.182 0.240 0.204 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.045 0.046 0.025 0.022 0.013 EPS 0.896 0.960 0.876 0.911 0.938 0.903 0.951 NSS 3.4 6.2 8.2 10.9 16.6 22.2 25.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1728 1976 249 0.961 0.280 0.131 2.917 0.213 0.607 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.360 0.172 0.101 63 186 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.41 1.00 1.11 1.52 25.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.604 0.434 0.276 0.217 0.106 0.057 -0.026 -0.020 -0.107 -0.096 PACF 0.604 0.109 -0.038 0.055 -0.079 -0.009 -0.075 0.035 -0.121 0.019 95% C.L. 0.127 0.167 0.184 0.191 0.194 0.195 0.196 0.196 0.196 0.197 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.375 0.543 0.104 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.584 0.451 0.340 0.253 0.068 -0.043 -0.115 -0.105 -0.275 -0.277 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.584 2 0.486 0.167 3 0.480 0.149 0.036 4 0.480 0.149 0.035 0.003 5 0.481 0.155 0.063 0.094 -0.190 6 0.460 0.166 0.070 0.111 -0.138 -0.109 7 0.453 0.158 0.077 0.115 -0.128 -0.082 -0.060 8 0.457 0.162 0.084 0.109 -0.132 -0.091 -0.085 0.056 9 0.470 0.142 0.062 0.078 -0.106 -0.071 -0.047 0.163 -0.235 10 0.462 0.147 0.061 0.076 -0.110 -0.069 -0.045 0.168 -0.220 -0.031 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2032.21 1930.53 1925.51 1927.18 1929.18 1922.01 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1921.02 1922.13 1923.35 1911.21 1912.96 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.486 0.167 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 35.89 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 155.98 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.486 0.403 0.277 0.202 0.144 0.104 0.075 0.054 0.039 0.0277 0.020 0.014 0.010 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.0010 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 395011 2 0.442 0.622 0.059 2 395012 2 0.469 0.663 0.030 3 395021 2 0.248 0.342 0.239 4 395022 2 0.345 0.587 0.002 5 395031 2 0.395 0.493 0.192 6 395032 2 0.680 0.654 0.199 7 395041 2 0.449 0.558 0.150 8 395042 2 0.555 0.732 0.018 9 395051 2 0.301 0.340 0.295 10 395052 2 0.268 0.309 0.296 11 395061 2 0.525 0.618 0.130 12 395062 2 0.504 0.563 0.191 13 395071 2 0.243 0.529 -0.145 14 395072 2 0.053 0.135 0.138 15 395091 2 0.063 0.207 -0.011 16 395092 2 0.624 0.744 0.053 17 396101 2 0.170 0.369 0.065 18 396102 2 0.045 -0.082 -0.137 19 396111 2 0.387 0.604 0.023 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 396112 2 0.423 0.553 0.129 21 396121 2 0.508 0.753 -0.064 22 396122 2 0.508 0.646 0.089 23 396131 2 0.245 0.533 -0.092 24 396132 2 0.307 0.513 0.068 25 396141 2 0.586 0.678 0.095 26 396142 2 0.275 0.362 0.232 27 396151 2 0.393 0.570 0.086 28 396152 2 0.434 0.592 0.087 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.373 0.507 0.086 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.169 0.196 0.116 MEDIAN 2 0.394 0.561 0.087 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.248 0.269 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.045 -0.082 -0.145 LOWER HINGE 2 0.258 0.365 0.020 UPPER HINGE 2 0.506 0.634 0.171 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.680 0.753 0.296 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 395011 1789 1976 188 1.000 0.309 1.019 5.913 0.323 -0.005 2 395012 1781 1976 196 1.000 0.289 0.820 5.493 0.317 -0.004 3 395021 1881 1976 96 1.000 0.242 0.559 3.740 0.261 -0.018 4 395022 1848 1976 129 1.000 0.286 0.306 3.522 0.319 0.004 5 395031 1784 1976 193 1.000 0.276 0.763 6.292 0.292 0.007 6 395032 1742 1976 235 1.000 0.275 0.048 3.599 0.318 -0.005 7 395041 1896 1975 80 1.000 0.347 0.451 3.271 0.370 0.014 8 395042 1887 1976 90 1.000 0.331 0.623 3.831 0.364 0.014 9 395051 1871 1976 106 1.000 0.308 1.141 7.559 0.319 -0.032 10 395052 1880 1964 85 1.000 0.247 0.260 2.794 0.284 -0.030 11 395061 1795 1937 143 1.000 0.210 0.200 4.148 0.225 -0.021 12 395062 1728 1967 240 1.000 0.253 0.239 3.336 0.279 -0.003 13 395071 1924 1976 53 1.000 0.271 -0.052 2.318 0.314 -0.018 14 395072 1928 1976 49 1.000 0.185 0.316 3.567 0.202 0.016 15 395091 1902 1976 75 1.000 0.411 0.852 5.442 0.364 0.004 16 395092 1884 1974 91 1.000 0.267 0.401 3.019 0.284 -0.001 17 396101 1930 1976 47 1.000 0.248 0.234 3.127 0.296 0.012 18 396102 1932 1976 45 1.000 0.230 0.747 4.019 0.235 0.030 19 396111 1806 1976 171 1.000 0.240 0.513 3.813 0.276 -0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 396112 1813 1976 164 1.000 0.235 0.056 3.284 0.271 -0.027 21 396121 1900 1976 77 1.000 0.314 0.064 3.843 0.340 -0.013 22 396122 1859 1976 118 1.000 0.299 0.451 5.359 0.328 -0.011 23 396131 1848 1976 129 1.000 0.302 0.281 3.319 0.341 -0.016 24 396132 1851 1976 126 1.000 0.322 0.393 4.286 0.354 0.002 25 396141 1880 1976 97 1.000 0.300 0.802 4.426 0.329 0.000 26 396142 1856 1976 121 1.000 0.326 0.069 4.266 0.353 -0.047 27 396151 1899 1976 78 1.000 0.249 0.306 2.729 0.273 -0.016 28 396152 1890 1976 87 1.000 0.255 -0.024 3.324 0.286 -0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 118 1.000 0.280 0.423 4.059 0.304 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 54 0.000 0.046 0.322 1.198 0.043 0.017 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 101 1.000 0.275 0.354 3.777 0.315 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.061 0.468 1.055 0.057 0.021 MINIMUM VALUE 45 1.000 0.185 -0.052 2.318 0.202 -0.047 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.248 0.217 3.301 0.278 -0.017 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 153 1.000 0.308 0.685 4.356 0.334 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 1.000 0.411 1.141 7.559 0.370 0.030 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 374 0.394 0.117 0.006 -0.098 3.074 0.004 0.719 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.004 SERIES 395031 AND 395072 49 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.719 SERIES 395051 AND 395052 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.94 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 33.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 1. 15. 28. 55. 120. 253. RBAR 0.473 0.554 0.515 0.490 0.383 0.374 0.468 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.111 0.140 0.168 0.155 0.137 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.029 0.026 0.023 0.014 0.009 EPS 0.754 0.886 0.897 0.913 0.911 0.930 0.958 NSS 3.4 6.2 8.2 10.9 16.6 22.2 25.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1728 1976 249 0.990 0.212 0.048 3.729 0.245 -0.014 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.279 0.129 0.056 74 175 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 1.29 1.00 1.10 2.39 5.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.013 -0.027 -0.095 0.093 -0.040 0.033 -0.096 0.068 -0.142 -0.006 PACF -0.013 -0.027 -0.096 0.090 -0.044 0.029 -0.083 0.055 -0.139 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.131 0.131 0.134 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 0.001 -0.095 0.091 -0.044 0.035 -0.100 0.066 -0.147 -0.006 PACF -0.002 0.001 -0.095 0.092 -0.045 0.028 -0.085 0.053 -0.140 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.131 0.131 0.134 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.009 -0.002 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1728 1976 249 0.991 0.258 0.078 3.208 0.202 0.555 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.553 0.410 0.229 0.205 0.075 0.038 -0.075 -0.062 -0.182 -0.151 PACF 0.553 0.150 -0.069 0.086 -0.097 -0.015 -0.108 0.016 -0.156 0.009 95% C.L. 0.127 0.161 0.177 0.182 0.185 0.186 0.186 0.186 0.187 0.189 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.325 0.473 0.146 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES